NE-02: GQR Research - Biden +7
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Author Topic: NE-02: GQR Research - Biden +7  (Read 1221 times)
Granite City
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« on: July 13, 2020, 05:57:43 AM »
Internal from the Eastman Campaign.

June 30 - July 5, 502 LV
MoE: 4.37%

Biden: 51%
Trump: 44%

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/506817-tight-race-brewing-in-nebraska-house-contest-internal-poll
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: July 13, 2020, 06:00:19 AM »
Similar to what the DCCC found in May
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BobbieMac
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« Reply #2 on: July 13, 2020, 07:15:05 AM »
Thats around a 12 point lead on UNS nationally.
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redjohn
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« Reply #3 on: July 13, 2020, 08:06:01 AM »
I expect this district to go 51-47 Biden. I'm still a little surprised HRC didn't win here in 2016, though.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4 on: July 13, 2020, 05:43:28 PM »
Consistent with about a 10% shift nationwide from 2016 to 2020, at least in this district in the Presidential race. This little district is now a must-win for President Trump.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #5 on: July 13, 2020, 05:46:59 PM »
I wouldn’t be surprised if this district votes to the left of the nation.
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Roronoa D. Law
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« Reply #6 on: July 13, 2020, 05:52:49 PM »
Quote from: redjohn on July 13, 2020, 08:06:01 AM
I expect this district to go 51-47 Biden. I'm still a little surprised HRC didn't win here in 2016, though.

Large amount of 3rd party voters.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #7 on: July 13, 2020, 06:04:49 PM »
It was dumb not to invest more in this district back in 2018.
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An American Tail: Fubart Goes West
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« Reply #8 on: July 13, 2020, 06:06:41 PM »
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on July 13, 2020, 06:04:49 PM
It was dumb not to invest more in this district back in 2018.

Yeah, I think Eastman would won it if the DCCC hadn’t pulled out.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #9 on: July 14, 2020, 03:27:25 AM »
Quote from: Deranged California Suburbanite on July 13, 2020, 06:06:41 PM
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on July 13, 2020, 06:04:49 PM
It was dumb not to invest more in this district back in 2018.

Yeah, I think Eastman would won it if the DCCC hadn’t pulled out.

Eastman has definitely revised her campaign this time around to being much more DCCC-friendly. The substance of her platform hasn't changed, and it doesn't really need to, but her campaign has changed for the better, I think. NE-02 is the exact kind of district that Democrats should win in the age of Trump, but it's also the exact kind of Dem-friendly district that would not respond well to the kind of messaging of, say, the Sanders campaign.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: July 14, 2020, 03:28:49 AM »
Safe D
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G_Master
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« Reply #11 on: July 14, 2020, 10:18:48 AM »
I honestly wonder what it would be for Nebraska’s 1st and even 3rd Congressional Districts.
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Badger
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« Reply #12 on: July 14, 2020, 01:31:56 PM »
Quote from: G_Master on July 14, 2020, 10:18:48 AM
I honestly wonder what it would be for Nebraska’s 1st and even 3rd Congressional Districts.

The first might have Biden within high single digits, possibly. The Third District is one of the most Republican districts in the country, though.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #13 on: July 14, 2020, 01:33:19 PM »
Definitely more likely to flip than Maine-02. Since this is a suburban district, Joe Biden is a pretty good fit I guess since he's appealing to moderate suburbanites. However, I don't think the margin will be seven points.
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