CBS/YouGov 50 state model megathread
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Author Topic: CBS/YouGov 50 state model megathread  (Read 3800 times)
Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #50 on: July 13, 2020, 06:01:26 PM »
I don't know, I'm not that unsettled by these numbers. They look like pretty realistic wins for Biden, especially with him being above 50% in both of them.

But many of their other state-by-state numbers don't quite add up.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #51 on: July 13, 2020, 06:03:14 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on July 13, 2020, 05:20:37 PM
So FL at Biden+6, WI at Biden+5, and PA at Biden+5 are all tossups...while IA at Trump+2, OH at Trump+1, and TX at Trump+1 are Lean R.  Huh?

Not only that, but Colorado and Nevada are only lean D here when Biden is winning by double digits.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #52 on: July 13, 2020, 06:09:51 PM »
Oh apparently these are modeled results, not actual polls.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #53 on: July 13, 2020, 06:13:58 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on July 13, 2020, 06:09:51 PM
Oh apparently these are modeled results, not actual polls.

Boo!
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Pericles
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« Reply #54 on: July 13, 2020, 06:22:19 PM »
I actually was hoping for an MRP-they were pretty interesting and accurate the last two times in the UK.
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Da2017
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« Reply #55 on: July 13, 2020, 06:26:18 PM »
« Edited: July 13, 2020, 10:31:04 PM by Da2017 »
These numbers look about right given where Biden is in the average of national polls.
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xavier110
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« Reply #56 on: July 13, 2020, 06:56:41 PM »
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on July 13, 2020, 06:01:26 PM
I don't know, I'm not that unsettled by these numbers. They look like pretty realistic wins for Biden, especially with him being above 50% in both of them.

But many of their other state-by-state numbers don't quite add up.

Yeah, I was about to say these look like realistic election results after you push everyone into a corner.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #57 on: July 13, 2020, 07:22:26 PM »
Trump has to lead in WI and Paul Ryan's district WI 01 which is Kenosha is leaning D, my home is IL and I know Kenosha, and when Kenosha wants a Dem, its DOA for Trump
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #58 on: July 13, 2020, 07:38:21 PM »
I can live with these numbers.
But I hope that dont go any lower.
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Da2017
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« Reply #59 on: July 13, 2020, 07:41:01 PM »
Arizona Biden should be ahead by about 6 if he is up by 9 on average.
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redjohn
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« Reply #60 on: July 13, 2020, 08:12:02 PM »
Interesting data points, regardless of the specific accuracy. We're all hoping for Biden+15 in MI and Biden+10 in WI, but these may end up being more realistic results. We'll see.
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redjohn
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« Reply #61 on: July 13, 2020, 08:13:48 PM »
However, their political team might want to review this one again. AK R+5, GA D+2 while Biden only leads by 5 in WI? Pretty out there
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Devils30
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« Reply #62 on: July 13, 2020, 08:39:49 PM »
With the exception of Arizona it seems realistic.

This thing looks more like an election model than an election poll though.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #63 on: July 13, 2020, 08:50:39 PM »
I guess we should turn this thread into a CBS MRP model thread?
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Sbane
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« Reply #64 on: July 13, 2020, 10:22:11 PM »
Quote from: redjohn on July 13, 2020, 08:13:48 PM
However, their political team might want to review this one again. AK R+5, GA D+2 while Biden only leads by 5 in WI? Pretty out there

In 2016, Georgia and Wisconsin were only about 4 points apart. It is not out of the realm of possibility they are only 3 points apart in 2020.

As for Alaska, Trump is pretty much matching his number from 2016 while a lot of the third party voters swing to Biden.
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YE
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« Reply #65 on: July 14, 2020, 01:20:42 AM »
Quote from: AOC Stan on July 13, 2020, 08:50:39 PM
I guess we should turn this thread into a CBS MRP model thread?

Done.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #66 on: July 14, 2020, 02:05:25 AM »
Biden +5 in Wisconsin seems unsettling at first, but I'm more comfortable with seeing Biden 52 and Trump 47 than I would be with a poll that, for instance, had Biden at 47 and Trump at 40.
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BobbieMac
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« Reply #67 on: July 14, 2020, 02:45:19 AM »
All ties in well with a lead of around +8/9 for Biden nationally on UNS.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #68 on: July 14, 2020, 05:15:14 AM »
Their TX, AZ, and FL ones should be taken with a grain of salt right now bc it looks like they just used their recent poll as the top line and nothing else
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afleitch
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« Reply #69 on: July 14, 2020, 06:48:26 AM »
If anything keep an eye on the safe state margins; Biden can't afford to pile on votes in states he's safely won.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #70 on: July 14, 2020, 06:55:43 AM »
What’s NPR ?
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Person Man
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« Reply #71 on: July 14, 2020, 07:13:56 AM »
National Public Radio
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #72 on: July 14, 2020, 07:15:55 AM »

I know, but YouGov only polls for CBS, not NPR.

NPR uses Marist as pollster.

The thread title needs to be changed.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #73 on: July 14, 2020, 07:21:48 AM »
Thanks to Senator YE for correcting the thread title.

All YouGov state polls can now be posted here.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #74 on: July 14, 2020, 07:24:52 AM »
CO and VA have identical 12% leads for Biden on the map.

CO is shown as „lean Biden“, VA as „likely Biden“.

Does anyone know why ?
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