Texas (UT-Tyler) - Biden +5
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  Texas (UT-Tyler) - Biden +5
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Author Topic: Texas (UT-Tyler) - Biden +5  (Read 4051 times)
BobbieMac
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« Reply #50 on: July 13, 2020, 04:13:06 AM »

This poll is actually in line with the PPP Alaska Trump+3 when you put the numbers into UNS.
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Pericles
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« Reply #51 on: July 13, 2020, 04:18:51 AM »

While this still looks a little too positive for Biden, it still backs up why I have softened a bit on my previous insistence that Texas is impossible to flip. Trump being down here at all, leading in the single digits, or tied is in no way a good sign for him.

However, I do still insist that the Senate election was always out of reach. And I think that would have been true if O'Rourke ran in Hegar's place too. Democrats can flip the Senate without Texas, we're lucky to have Bollier (potentially) and Bullock instead.

If the Democratic nominee runs a good campaign, that Senate race could still become competitive. Most likely it's a narrow Cornyn win though.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #52 on: July 13, 2020, 05:25:54 AM »

Didn't this poll adjust and weight it though, even though the % has more Dems? Didn't they then weigh it based off of what it should be?
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #53 on: July 13, 2020, 10:15:44 AM »

Color me skeptical, but it's worth noting that TX polls have slightly overestimated GOP support in recent cycles. However, seeing how the race unfolding in TX and nationwide: Lean R ->> Pure tossup.

The Biden campaign would be well advised to put serious efforts into the Lone Star State. Even if flipping blue at the prez level fails, Trump is on defense and it might help netting 2-3 House seats. Potentially the State House flips or comes close to flipping.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #54 on: July 13, 2020, 12:14:03 PM »

The thing that you have to realize is that Texas polling is very inaccurate right now due to the pandemic.

A lot of people are not answering their phones because contact tracers keep calling everyone to try to tell them they may be infected with the virus. Nobody wants to hear that, and the people who want to hear that least of all are Republicans Trump supporters who believe that the virus is a hoax. Why waste your time talking to a contact tracer for a host virus?

So for this reason there are a lot fewer Trump supporters responding to polls at the moment than usual. So this poll is probably about 10 points too favorable for Biden, which means Trump is up by 5.

So Texas is safe Republican.

5 points up is lean, not safe.

How about a compromise? Let's split the difference and call it "Likely"?
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #55 on: July 13, 2020, 12:14:42 PM »

This is one of the dumbest things my drunk ass has ever read

 Love
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OneJ
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« Reply #56 on: July 13, 2020, 12:19:27 PM »

I hope y’all know he’s joking.  Tongue
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ultraviolet
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« Reply #57 on: July 13, 2020, 12:24:52 PM »

The thing that you have to realize is that Texas polling is very inaccurate right now due to the pandemic.

A lot of people are not answering their phones because contact tracers keep calling everyone to try to tell them they may be infected with the virus. Nobody wants to hear that, and the people who want to hear that least of all are Republicans Trump supporters who believe that the virus is a hoax. Why waste your time talking to a contact tracer for a host virus?

So for this reason there are a lot fewer Trump supporters responding to polls at the moment than usual. So this poll is probably about 10 points too favorable for Biden, which means Trump is up by 5.

So Texas is safe Republican.


Wow, where’d you learn how to reason so well?
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emailking
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« Reply #58 on: July 13, 2020, 01:31:14 PM »

I hope y’all know he’s joking.  Tongue

That makes more sense, haha. I fell for it. 😳
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BidenHarris2020
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« Reply #59 on: July 15, 2020, 12:34:32 AM »

Baby blue Texas
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