Texas (UT-Tyler) - Biden +5

[Ferguson97]

Lone Star Joe

[FlyoverCoast]

		UT-Tyler Poll		2018 Texas Exit Poll		2016 Texas Exit Poll
Democrat		38%		34%		29%
Independent		22%		27%		33%
Republican		39%		39%		38%
Liberal		31%		22%		20%
Moderate		28%		35%		36%
Conservative		38%		43%		44%

Maybe this poll is bit skewed towards liberals and Dems, but nonetheless these are bad looking numbers for Trump

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I think there's a real possibility that the case surges are what may be handing Florida, Georgia, Texas, Arizona to Biden.

We may very well see all of the shifting southern states flip at once. Certainly didn't expect that.

I absolutely think this take hasn't gotten much thought around here when it should.

I've been thinking this since Abbott & Ducey have tried to take credit for implementing mask orders while overturning cities for issuing them months ago. At that point, the vote becomes personal

[emailking]

I guess the question then is if the numbers will revert back when the active cases go down.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Its a pretty badly sampled poll looking at the ideological crosstabs but its clear currently the race in Texas is between a couple points in either direction which is disastrous news for Trump

[President Johnson]

I love it! I wouldn't put too much stock into this poll, especially having Trump at just 41%. One way or the other, Texas is a swing state now. It was supposed to become one in 2024 or 2028, but Trump makes sure we're a few years early. My prediction right now is that he will hold on by anywhere between three and five points.

[Yoda]

overhaul the patty?

i always like to add a little Worcester sauce, myself

Add an egg and some pesto into your ground beef next time. Mind blowing.

[woodley park]

I guess the question then is if the numbers will revert back when the active cases go down.

"Yeah summer 2020 was a pretty rough time. I lost my job because of COVID-induced economic chaos, my grandfather died from COVID, and my neighbor got saddled with thousands of dollars in medical bills from her COVID-induced hospital stay. But thankfully this was just another Trump scandal that I'll be able to forget about come next week, when I can tell pollsters I'm back to approving Donald Trump's performance as president."

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Once the Rs lose the Sunbelt permanently, they will become a Rocky Mountain state only and KY, MS, OK, MS. AR, WVA, LA IN and TN party

[emailking]

I guess the question then is if the numbers will revert back when the active cases go down.

"Yeah summer 2020 was a pretty rough time. I lost my job because of COVID-induced economic chaos, my grandfather died from COVID, and my neighbor got saddled with thousands of dollars in medical bills from her COVID-induced hospital stay. But thankfully this was just another Trump scandal that I'll be able to forget about come next week, when I can tell pollsters I'm back to approving Donald Trump's performance as president."

I was being serious. We don't even know for sure if the bump is related to the cases, much less if it will hold 4 months from now.

[Calthrina950]

I think there's a real possibility that the case surges are what may be handing Florida, Georgia, Texas, Arizona to Biden.

We may very well see all of the shifting southern states flip at once. Certainly didn't expect that.

I absolutely think this take hasn't gotten much thought around here when it should.

I've been thinking this since Abbott & Ducey have tried to take credit for implementing mask orders while overturning cities for issuing them months ago. At that point, the vote becomes personal

Abbott and Ducey have completely botched their responses to the pandemic, and their states are now suffering from it. I wouldn't be surprised if Abbott's approvals are taking a major hit now because of the recent surge. We already know from recent polls that Ducey's response to coronavirus is disapproved of by more than 60% of Arizona voters and that his overall approval ratings have declined. Anyone who doesn't think that this is also undermining Trump's electoral position in these states would be mistaken.

[Progressive Pessimist]

While this still looks a little too positive for Biden, it still backs up why I have softened a bit on my previous insistence that Texas is impossible to flip. Trump being down here at all, leading in the single digits, or tied is in no way a good sign for him.

However, I do still insist that the Senate election was always out of reach. And I think that would have been true if O'Rourke ran in Hegar's place too. Democrats can flip the Senate without Texas, we're lucky to have Bollier (potentially) and Bullock instead.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The problem isnt that loved ones arent only dying, their loved ones cant visit and monitor their sick loved ones to see if they are well taken care of.

But, neglect for the sick have always been a problem

[Badger]

		UT-Tyler Poll		2018 Texas Exit Poll		2016 Texas Exit Poll
Democrat		38%		34%		29%
Independent		22%		27%		33%
Republican		39%		39%		38%
Liberal		31%		22%		20%
Moderate		28%		35%		36%
Conservative		38%		43%		44%

Maybe this poll is bit skewed towards liberals and Dems, but nonetheless these are bad looking numbers for Trump

Yeah, even considering the seismic and Democrat friendly demographic changes Texas is undergoing, such as about a thousand people moving to Austin every DAY now, this is still not an accurate reflection of what the 2020 Texas electorate is going to look like.

Good catch, BTW.

[woodley park]

I guess the question then is if the numbers will revert back when the active cases go down.

"Yeah summer 2020 was a pretty rough time. I lost my job because of COVID-induced economic chaos, my grandfather died from COVID, and my neighbor got saddled with thousands of dollars in medical bills from her COVID-induced hospital stay. But thankfully this was just another Trump scandal that I'll be able to forget about come next week, when I can tell pollsters I'm back to approving Donald Trump's performance as president."

I was being serious. We don't even know for sure if the bump is related to the cases, much less if it will hold 4 months from now.

Obviously I was being sarcastic, but I'm also being serious in that I think there is a strong possibility that Biden's success in Texas is preclisely because of the Trump administration's horrendous response to COVID-19, in Texas and elsewhere across the country. Since said incompetent response is something that directly impacts millions of people, unlike every other (legitimate) crisis in this administration, like the Russia investigation, the Stone pardon, the locked up migrant children, the response to Hurricane Maria, and the 'many sides' of Charlottesville, etc., I don't expect it to just fade with the news cycle.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

		UT-Tyler Poll		2018 Texas Exit Poll		2016 Texas Exit Poll
Democrat		38%		34%		29%
Independent		22%		27%		33%
Republican		39%		39%		38%
Liberal		31%		22%		20%
Moderate		28%		35%		36%
Conservative		38%		43%		44%

Maybe this poll is bit skewed towards liberals and Dems, but nonetheless these are bad looking numbers for Trump

I got bored and adjusted the crosstab numbers/percentages to fit the exit polls. And unless I messed up somewhere in my math, still not looking good for Trump.

                 2018       2016
Biden          45%        43%
Trump         41%        41%
Undecided    9%         10%
Other           5%          5%


Seems like the Texas result is gonna be heavily dependent on how Independents shift from now until November. But if Trump wins, I don't expect him to do any better than Cruz in 2018

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The thing that you have to realize is that Texas polling is very inaccurate right now due to the pandemic.

A lot of people are not answering their phones because contact tracers keep calling everyone to try to tell them they may be infected with the virus. Nobody wants to hear that, and the people who want to hear that least of all are Republicans Trump supporters who believe that the virus is a hoax. Why waste your time talking to a contact tracer for a host virus?

So for this reason there are a lot fewer Trump supporters responding to polls at the moment than usual. So this poll is probably about 10 points too favorable for Biden, which means Trump is up by 5.

So Texas is safe Republican.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

		UT-Tyler Poll		2018 Texas Exit Poll		2016 Texas Exit Poll
Democrat		38%		34%		29%
Independent		22%		27%		33%
Republican		39%		39%		38%
Liberal		31%		22%		20%
Moderate		28%		35%		36%
Conservative		38%		43%		44%

Maybe this poll is bit skewed towards liberals and Dems, but nonetheless these are bad looking numbers for Trump

This just goes to prove my point. Conservatives are not talking to pollsters because someone calling from an unknown number on the phone may be a contact tracer. Only liberals and Democrats are answering their phones in Texas currently, because they love contact tracing.

So this is really a junk poll and should be thrown out.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

"Yeah summer 2020 was a pretty rough time. I lost my job because of COVID-induced economic chaos, my grandfather died from COVID, and my neighbor got saddled with thousands of dollars in medical bills from her COVID-induced hospital stay. But thankfully this was just another Trump scandal that I'll be able to forget about come next week, when I can tell pollsters I'm back to approving Donald Trump's performance as president."

Death is just a state of mind. And once it is out of sight, it will be out of mind, because you know what they say - "out of sight, out of mind."

So Greg Abbott will just have the Texas state government stop recording the deaths and it will all go away and disappear, along with stopping testing. Can we please slow down the testing, no more tests.

[MT Treasurer]

Man, how easy it is for many to forget that there were dozens of TX polls showing the state as a pure Tossup even before COVID-19. Yes, the response to the pandemic has made things even worse for Trump, but people are really underestimating how static the state of this race has been since 2017.

[NOVA Green]

Uni Poll... still wouldn't be surprised to see Biden up a couple points in the LVs, plus larger numbers amongst the RVs.

[BaldEagle1991]

The thing that you have to realize is that Texas polling is very inaccurate right now due to the pandemic.

Polls can be done remotely. So no pandemic issue here.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I doubt Biden wins by 5, but if he does, I think Cornyn is in serious trouble and any house seat that was Cruz +5 or less flips(yes, that includes TX-25)

[emailking]

The thing that you have to realize is that Texas polling is very inaccurate right now due to the pandemic.

A lot of people are not answering their phones because contact tracers keep calling everyone to try to tell them they may be infected with the virus. Nobody wants to hear that, and the people who want to hear that least of all are Republicans Trump supporters who believe that the virus is a hoax. Why waste your time talking to a contact tracer for a host virus?

So for this reason there are a lot fewer Trump supporters responding to polls at the moment than usual. So this poll is probably about 10 points too favorable for Biden, which means Trump is up by 5.

So Texas is safe Republican.

5 points up is lean, not safe.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The thing that you have to realize is that Texas polling is very inaccurate right now due to the pandemic.

A lot of people are not answering their phones because contact tracers keep calling everyone to try to tell them they may be infected with the virus. Nobody wants to hear that, and the people who want to hear that least of all are Republicans Trump supporters who believe that the virus is a hoax. Why waste your time talking to a contact tracer for a host virus?

So for this reason there are a lot fewer Trump supporters responding to polls at the moment than usual. So this poll is probably about 10 points too favorable for Biden, which means Trump is up by 5.

So Texas is safe Republican.

This is one of the dumbest things my drunk ass has ever read