Do you believe that Trump would be on track to re-election without COVID-19?

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Discuss.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The election would certainly be a lot closer, but I still believe Biden would be a slight favorite.

[Figueira]

No, because his numbers have barely moved at all.

More people would be predicting his victory, though.

[Roll Roons]

No, because his numbers have barely moved at all.

More people would be predicting his victory, though.

They've moved quite a bit. Trump was never down by double digits pre-pandemic, although the primaries were still going on.

Anyway, I think Biden would have around a 55% chance of victory. Slightly favored, but Trump would very much be in the game.

[Person Man]

You don't know with Trump. He would have never ran away with the election because he is an attention whore and he wouldn't be  getting any attention if he was predicted to win. He would create a "challenge" to solve lest the narrative coming into 2020 is that Trump will probably win a couple of states that he didn't win last time, and might pick up some seats, and the popular vote. Pelosi would have a smaller majority. The Democratic bench was weak and enough people were living off of loans to not really pay attention.

[roxas11]

based on the RCP average of polls

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

No I do not think Trump was ever on track to win re-election

Biden had bigger leads over trump long before Covid showed up
In fact Biden Biggest lead over trump was in 2019 when the rcp average had him ahead by 11 points in September 2019.  His lead only started to go down during the heated primary be I believe Biden numbers would have recovered the second the dem primary ended even without Covid


If anything I think Covid may actually help trump re-election chances since is could effect Dem turnout in November

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I think the fundamentals still slightly favoured Biden, but there’s no doubt coronavirus has been a huge break for him. I’d also say an under-appreciated benefit of the whole situation is that Biden hasn’t had to go through campaign rigours that would likely set him up for more/bigger mistakes. I’m not going to be gaslighted into believing he is still as sharp as he was eight years ago.

[Person Man]

based on the RCP average of polls

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

No I do not think Trump was ever on track to win re-election

Biden had bigger leads over trump long before Covid showed up
In fact Biden Biggest lead over trump was in 2019 when the rcp average had him ahead by 11 points in September 2019.  His lead only started to go down during the heated primary be I believe Biden numbers would have recovered the second the dem primary ended even without Covid


If anything I think Covid may actually help trump re-election chances since is could effect Dem turnout in November

I still think enough people would "come home" after the conventions to give Trump a victory to brag about without taking the House with him provided Unemployment remained at 3%. I just don't see an incumbent losing with another late 90s programmer boom happening.

[Hammy]

He'd be less likely to win reelection because turnout would no longer be an issue.

[Eraserhead]

Yes, probably. Although it'd be close again in the popular vote and possibly in the electoral college too.

[Sbane]

I think he would have had a much greater chance of winning than he does now but I don't think he was ever cruising to re-election. He did have a pathway where MI, WI, PA and FL narrowly voted for Trump while sun belt states like AZ, TX, GA and NC move towards the Democrats but just not enough to flip them. Once the PV win for the Democrats gets above 4-5 point, this pathway falls apart.

[MT Treasurer]

No, there’s literally no indication or evidence that this would have been even a Tossup race (much less a Trump-favored election) before COVID-19, but this myth will never die.

[dunceDude]

The conventional wisdom would have remained annoyingly equivocal.

The race has been consistently at least Biden +5 since October last year, so people were already way behind the ball, but it's never been true that Trump is favored.

[TML]

If there was no pandemic and no social unrest, Trump would probably be favored against an establishment candidate (he could win with the same strategy he employed against Hillary - by focusing on economic populism), but against a populist progressive candidate he would not be favored (due to his fake populism being canceled out by his opponent's real populism).