Who would be the Democratic nominee if Biden didn’t run?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The only reason why Biden won, the Reade and Covid 19 came in April, a mnth after BERNIE dropped out

[roxas11]

Its very clear to me that Sander would have be the Nominee if Biden was not into this race

Biden strong support with Black voters is the only thing that kept Bernie from winning the Nomination. remember it was Biden big win in South Carolina that turned the entire race in his favor

Had that never happened Bernie would be well on his way to becoming the nominee of the party              
the Moderates may hay tried to really around somebody else but the Problem is unlike Biden
Pete Buttigieg,Bloomberg,Amy Klobuchar simply did not have that type of support or appeal with black voters

I think Bernie would have crushed all of them in the end

Maybe Harris or Booker could have done better but outside of that I think it would Bernie nomination to lose if Biden was not in the race

[Coldstream]

Harris or Warren. They’d still have united against Sanders just as they did in real life.

[darklordoftech]

Probably Bloomberg. The Democratic primary electorate is not as progressive as some of us would like to believe.

What exactly have to offer the Democratic primary electorate besides “not progressive”?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Harris or Warren. They’d still have united against Sanders just as they did in real life.

I don't see anywhere near as much of the establishment wing (let alone voters) willing to unite around Warren to stop Sanders unless they were the final two choices and they'd fight harder to prevent that scenario from occurring to begin with. Many of the people who praised Warren at the tail end of her campaign like Carville were only doing it in bad faith/to contrast with an ascendant Sanders and were blasting her during the summer of '19. They would be doing the same if she was still one of the main threats to their political interests and they will be doing it when and if she is the progressive frontrunner in the next open primary.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Probably Bloomberg. The Democratic primary electorate is not as progressive as some of us would like to believe.

What exactly have to offer the Democratic primary electorate besides “not progressive”?

Bloomberg didn't have that much to offer but much of what made Biden's overlooked campaign successful was the argument that not offering much was the only way to win over Republicans and therefore the only path to beating Trump. There was plenty of room for appeals to pessimism about the electorate and the Democratic Party's capabilities.

Bloomberg's pitch as a relatively right-wing, tough-talking NYC businessman was essentially fighting fire with fire and he had the money to back it up. I think he could have gone a lot further with as many endorsements as he racked up during his late bid, but it's possible he only got those to begin with because of a desperate search for an alternative to Biden to stop Warren and Sanders and maybe he would have fizzled out much earlier if his gaffes had occurred in, say, June and July. Warren could have ended his campaign.

[NHI]

Sanders or Warren

[Suburbia]

Warren would have been the nominee

[OneJ]

Bloomberg might've won in this scenario considering a large portion of Democratic voters were looking for someone "electable" and able to defeat Trump.

[Roll Roons]

I think it would have been Harris. She was seen as a top contender very early on, and in hindsight, it's clear that she was overshadowed by Biden.

The other people who made it to the primaries all had serious liabilities. Warren would still be seen as too risky for swing voters, Sanders even more so, and Bloomberg would have likely still gotten eviscerated in the debate. Klobuchar and Buttigieg had no appeal to black voters, which would have been in the spotlight if George Floyd is still killed. So it's possible that a similar dynamic plays out as real life, where Sanders leads after the first three contests, but a well-timed Clyburn endorsement for the sole remaining black candidate gives Harris momentum for South Carolina and Super Tuesday.

Also it's possible that Cuomo or Brown might have run and had a good shot.

[ultraviolet]

Probably Warren, maybe Bloomberg.

[SWE]

It'd be hard to imagine Bernie losing a single state in this timeline.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It'd be hard to imagine Bernie losing a single state in this timeline.

The moderate vote would've coalesced around somebody else, so probably not.

Probably Buttigieg or Harris.

[SWE]

It'd be hard to imagine Bernie losing a single state in this timeline.

The moderate vote would've coalesced around somebody else, so probably not.

There is no "moderate vote." By all accounts most Biden support goes to Bernie.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It'd be hard to imagine Bernie losing a single state in this timeline.

The moderate vote would've coalesced around somebody else, so probably not.

There is no "moderate vote." By all accounts most Biden support goes to Bernie.

Sanders couldn't even win a majority of Warren supporters.

[SWE]

It'd be hard to imagine Bernie losing a single state in this timeline.

The moderate vote would've coalesced around somebody else, so probably not.

There is no "moderate vote." By all accounts most Biden support goes to Bernie.

Sanders couldn't even win a majority of Warren supporters.

Well yeah, his base and appeal never had much overlap with Warren's. Biden's did.

[ultraviolet]

It'd be hard to imagine Bernie losing a single state in this timeline.

The moderate vote would've coalesced around somebody else, so probably not.

There is no "moderate vote." By all accounts most Biden support goes to Bernie.

Sanders couldn't even win a majority of Warren supporters.

Well yeah, his base and appeal never had much overlap with Warren's. Biden's did.

What? How did Bernie and Biden’s base overlap at all?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It'd be hard to imagine Bernie losing a single state in this timeline.

The moderate vote would've coalesced around somebody else, so probably not.

There is no "moderate vote." By all accounts most Biden support goes to Bernie.

Sanders couldn't even win a majority of Warren supporters.

Well yeah, his base and appeal never had much overlap with Warren's. Biden's did.

It had plenty earlier in the primaries, but this is often overlooked. Ideological lanes did exist in those primaries, but they were fuzzy at best and much of the appeal of each candidate had was not directly related to it.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It'd be hard to imagine Bernie losing a single state in this timeline.

The moderate vote would've coalesced around somebody else, so probably not.

There is no "moderate vote." By all accounts most Biden support goes to Bernie.

Sanders couldn't even win a majority of Warren supporters.

Well yeah, his base and appeal never had much overlap with Warren's. Biden's did.

It had plenty earlier in the primaries, but this is often overlooked. Ideological lanes did exist in those primaries, but they were fuzzy at best and much of the appeal of each candidate had was not directly related to it.

The only common thing Biden and Sanders had was that they were both old white guys. Other than that they were polar opposites.

[Badger]

I'm not at all sure, but my initial gut reaction is buttigieg. I know that doesn't seemed initially logical, and of course all this is subject to the complete change in Dynamics as to how the campaign would have progressed pre I awoke without buying as the presumptive FrontRunner for so many months.

Please correct me if anyone has statistics to the contrary, but I'm guessing a significant number of white Biden voters may have chosen buttigieg as their second choice. Buttigieg seem to do well with order Democratic whites who were liberal, but not Bernie Sanders liberal. As badly as fighting did in Iowa and New Hampshire, even winning a plurality abiding voters would have probably given him the victory in both of those close races over Sanders.

I don't think Harris or Booker would have necessarily been able to coalesce the black vote without buying. They had plenty of chances on their own when black support of buying was a mile wide and an inch deep, much like it was for Hillary during the 2007 race pre Iowa. Neither one of them could present themselves to the black community AZ a viable Contender to get behind the way Obama did. I just don't see that Dynamic changing much without Biden in the race. While I suppose either one could have held on through lousy showings in Iowa and New Hampshire to somehow pull off a black voters fuelled victory in South Carolina the way Biden did, neither of them had the national presents and name recognition that Biden does in order to survive such big early hits.

Of course that still leaves open the question of where does the black vote go? Buttigieg?!? Not likely. Warren seems only marginally more likely, and that ain't much.

I bet I mostly spitballing / $hitposting here rather than making a firm point.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It'd be hard to imagine Bernie losing a single state in this timeline.

The moderate vote would've coalesced around somebody else, so probably not.

There is no "moderate vote." By all accounts most Biden support goes to Bernie.

Sanders couldn't even win a majority of Warren supporters.

Well yeah, his base and appeal never had much overlap with Warren's. Biden's did.

It had plenty earlier in the primaries, but this is often overlooked. Ideological lanes did exist in those primaries, but they were fuzzy at best and much of the appeal of each candidate had was not directly related to it.

The only common thing Biden and Sanders had was that they were both old white guys. Other than that they were polar opposites.

No; there is a fair bit more overlap, despite both teams' biggest partisans wanting to insist otherwise. One of the most significant shared aspects of their candidacies was that they both had a powerful claim to "Should have been picked in 2016," as the runner-up and the one whose non-candidacy was most speculated about. Given that one of the biggest issues in the primaries was beating Trump, regret probably galvanised a lot of voters behind Biden and Sanders and was a large part of why they dominated the primary polls.

This may well be part of why the field was so large this time. The most famous losers get to run 'Booker/Harris/Warren would have won' in their nigh-on-inevitable 2024 bids if Biden loses.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I'm not at all sure, but my initial gut reaction is buttigieg. I know that doesn't seemed initially logical, and of course all this is subject to the complete change in Dynamics as to how the campaign would have progressed pre I awoke without buying as the presumptive FrontRunner for so many months.

Please correct me if anyone has statistics to the contrary, but I'm guessing a significant number of white Biden voters may have chosen buttigieg as their second choice. Buttigieg seem to do well with order Democratic whites who were liberal, but not Bernie Sanders liberal. As badly as fighting did in Iowa and New Hampshire, even winning a plurality abiding voters would have probably given him the victory in both of those close races over Sanders.

I don't think Harris or Booker would have necessarily been able to coalesce the black vote without buying. They had plenty of chances on their own when black support of buying was a mile wide and an inch deep, much like it was for Hillary during the 2007 race pre Iowa. Neither one of them could present themselves to the black community AZ a viable Contender to get behind the way Obama did. I just don't see that Dynamic changing much without Biden in the race. While I suppose either one could have held on through lousy showings in Iowa and New Hampshire to somehow pull off a black voters fuelled victory in South Carolina the way Biden did, neither of them had the national presents and name recognition that Biden does in order to survive such big early hits.

Of course that still leaves open the question of where does the black vote go? Buttigieg?!? Not likely. Warren seems only marginally more likely, and that ain't much.

I bet I mostly spitballing / $hitposting here rather than making a firm point.

Democrats were incredibly risk-averse this year. I seriously doubt they would have picked the gay mayor of a mid-sized city who had literally zero appeal to minority voters.

[McGarnagle]

I believe in the forty year cycle

This iteration is like 1980 - an old, familiar face defeats an unpopular incumbent during a recession amidst a crisis the public feels has been badly managed. The opposition party nominee becomes the oldest President ever elected.

I supported Sanders, but Biden also met the criteria for this cycle, and had the backing of the party establishment. He was also the most familiar of the candidates in the field, which many voters seemed to view as reassuring.

If Biden had not run, Sanders likely would have been the nominee. If neither Biden nor Sanders had run, it would have been Warren.

[Badger]

I'm not at all sure, but my initial gut reaction is buttigieg. I know that doesn't seemed initially logical, and of course all this is subject to the complete change in Dynamics as to how the campaign would have progressed pre I awoke without buying as the presumptive FrontRunner for so many months.

Please correct me if anyone has statistics to the contrary, but I'm guessing a significant number of white Biden voters may have chosen buttigieg as their second choice. Buttigieg seem to do well with order Democratic whites who were liberal, but not Bernie Sanders liberal. As badly as fighting did in Iowa and New Hampshire, even winning a plurality abiding voters would have probably given him the victory in both of those close races over Sanders.

I don't think Harris or Booker would have necessarily been able to coalesce the black vote without buying. They had plenty of chances on their own when black support of buying was a mile wide and an inch deep, much like it was for Hillary during the 2007 race pre Iowa. Neither one of them could present themselves to the black community AZ a viable Contender to get behind the way Obama did. I just don't see that Dynamic changing much without Biden in the race. While I suppose either one could have held on through lousy showings in Iowa and New Hampshire to somehow pull off a black voters fuelled victory in South Carolina the way Biden did, neither of them had the national presents and name recognition that Biden does in order to survive such big early hits.

Of course that still leaves open the question of where does the black vote go? Buttigieg?!? Not likely. Warren seems only marginally more likely, and that ain't much.

I bet I mostly spitballing / $hitposting here rather than making a firm point.

Democrats were incredibly risk-averse this year. I seriously doubt they would have picked the gay mayor of a mid-sized city who had literally zero appeal to minority voters.

I tend to agree, but I'm not sure who among the crowd otherwise steps up for the win? Perhaps Warren, but she had about as big a problem with non-white voters as buttigieg. I'm just saying the Electoral math with Biden out of the picture on a purely superficial level tends to point towards mayor Pete carrying Iowa and New Hampshire.

Considering how piss poor their campaigns were, I just don't see Kamala Harris, let alone Booker, suddenly emerging as a serious contender just because Biden hadn't tentatively secured the black vote. Possibly, theoretically,  if Harris had been the presumptive  candidate for black voters maybe that could have given her enough of a cushion to survive her initial many gaffes and missteps, then retool her campaign for a revival?  But even that's a little tough to swallow, as there is a reason she was out of the race months before Iowa.

Maybe it would have opened more of a door for Klobuchar? She gave more of a younger female version of Biden vibe, whereas Elizabeth Warren always seemed to be a combination between Bernie Sanders-lite on policy and Hillary Clintonesque in campaigning skills/flaws. But again, I can't see Amy making serious inroads to the black community in time for South Carolina unless she has incriminating pictures of Jim Clyburn.

[dw93]

I can see one of three things happening. Bernie wins due to divided opposition like Carter in 1976 or Trump in 2016, Warren wins by building a coalition of enough  center left and progressive voters, or Bloomberg gets in earlier and buys the nomination. Harris and Booker stay in a little longer by getting more of the AA vote, but neither can get support from any other constituency in the Democratic primary to win the nomination.