Who would be the Democratic nominee if Biden didn’t run?

[darklordoftech]

Would Harris do better? Someone else?

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Sanders or Bloomberg

[CookieDamage]

Sanders > Warren > Buttigieg > Harris

[BudgieForce]

I think Sanders or Warren. Warren was able to build a winning coalition for a hot second during the primaries, no reason why she couldnt manage that without Biden in the field.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Kamala Harris

[Kleine Scheiße]

Harris or Sanders. Possibly Warren; Buttigieg a definite maybe. Bloomberg stock probably rises but that's not saying much.

[ugabug]

I think Sanders, Warren, Pete, or Booker are the ones most likely to have got the nomination if Biden hadn't enter the race.

[brucejoel99]

I think Sanders or Warren. Warren was able to build a winning coalition for a hot second during the primaries, no reason why she couldnt manage that without Biden in the field.

This. Her half-moderate/half-progressive base made clear that she was capable of building a coalition by constructively articulating her message & being nimble enough to pull in key support from other candidates/internal party constituencies. Had Biden not run, then she would've ran away with this primary on the back of her coalition of progressives & more liberal moderates.

[Ferguson97]

Sanders had a high floor/low ceiling. I don't see him pulling it off. Moderates and black voters would've coalesced around someone else. Maybe Harris?

[Da2017]

                                                          Interesting question.

Harris,Warren,Sanders,Buttigieg,Bloomberg might of had a chance. Buttigieg,Sanders and Warren to a lesser extent base was narrow. Buttigieg or Sanders might of eaked it out out if the African American vote was split. Harris might of been able to revive the Obama coalition. Bloomberg would probably occupy Biden's lane. Booker struggled to gain traction even before Biden even entered.  

[tmthforu94]

Whoever Clyburn endorsed pre-South Carolina primary.

[TML]

It would probably be whoever the establishment decided to coalesce around, if they played their cards the same way they did this year.

This year, if the establishment had decided to coalesce around a different establishment candidate (e.g. Buttigieg, Klobuchar, etc.), that individual would probably be the nominee right now if Biden joined the other establishment candidates in dropping out before Super Tuesday.

[Left Wing]

John Kerry or Andrew Cuomo

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bernie

[anthonyjg]

Maybe Bernie pulls it off cause I don't know who else establishment-y figures and voters would've, or even could've, coalesced around.

[TML]

Maybe Bernie pulls it off cause I don't know who else establishment-y figures and voters would've, or even could've, coalesced around.

The establishment decided to coalesce around Biden because he won SC. Had another establishment Democrat won that state (e.g. Buttigieg or Klobuchar), they would have coalesced around that individual instead.

[anthonyjg]

Maybe Bernie pulls it off cause I don't know who else establishment-y figures and voters would've, or even could've, coalesced around.

The establishment decided to coalesce around Biden because he won SC. Had another establishment Democrat won that state (e.g. Buttigieg or Klobuchar), they would have coalesced around that individual instead.

Yeah but  Buttigieg and Klobuchar don’t strike me as viable because of how white their coalitions were. Not that Bernie did a much better job or outreach in that regard, but Biden was in a pretty unique spot where he could appeal to lots of very different factions among Dem Primary voters.

[S019]

Harris, because Biden staying out means that the AA vote is up for grabs, and Harris probably takes it. It still would not be Sanders, because the establishment was always going to coalesce around the not-Sanders option. Warren is another possibility, but not sure if she would win AA votes.

[Alben Barkley]

Warren would have a good chance for the reasons people have said (able to build a coalition of both moderates and progressives). Bernie always would have been a factional candidate simply unable to appeal to most mainstream Democrats given how his campaign was run.

But, this assumes nobody else runs without Joe in the mix. If Kerry or somebody like that does, possible they win instead.

Also, if most other things go pretty much the same until South Carolina (Buttigieg narrowly wins IA, Bernie narrowly wins NH and more solidly wins NV), it’s possible that Clyburn still endorses someone and that person wins the state, then the establishment/moderate candidates coalesce around whoever that is to stop Bernie. I kinda doubt that would be Buttigieg — maybe Klobuchar? Could even be Warren. Maybe Harris or Booker get more black support in the first place and therefore are still in the race at this point, and one of them ends up as the nominee.

[PPT Spiral]

Bloomberg would have entered much earlier, racked up Trump 2016-esque numbers by the first primaries with his spending, and bought off much of the institutional support that ultimately went Biden's way.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Probably Bernie, with a small chance of Bloomberg. The others would be just fighting over the woke wine mom vote or whatever.

[SnowLabrador]

Probably Bloomberg. The Democratic primary electorate is not as progressive as some of us would like to believe.

[here2view]

Warren > Sanders > Bloomberg

[Landslide Lyndon]

Without Biden locking down the black vote, Harris and Booker would have been real players. 

And no, Sanders wouldn't win. His campaign aimed from start to finish to get 30% and that's exactly what he got. You can't even get a sniff of the nomination with 30%. 

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The most likely is Sanders, although he would not have been the odds-on favourite thanks to a lack of institutional support. I think a lot of people underestimate how many Biden-Sanders supporters there were and how much both of their candidacies were boosted by the "We should have picked them in 2016," effect.

After that, probably Sherrod Brown. I assume Biden was the main reason he didn't run and he would have been a very strong candidate to unite the party.

Bloomberg starting his campaign earlier (he initially stayed out because of Biden) would also have massively transformed the race and there's a decent chance he'd have shut out a lot of the lesser-known candidates a lot earlier on (it became harder to run ads when he was dominating the market).

Kamala Harris' campaign would still have been plagued by the staff issues. It ended earlier than it otherwise would have because of the problems with Maya etc. It would otherwise have done much better but I'm not sure how that problem would neatly resolve itself without Biden.

I'm not sure why people are suggesting Warren. She was bleeding moderate supporters to plenty of other candidates besides Sanders and Biden and her base became excessively white collar by late autumn 2020.