What signs in the early returns in FL on Election Night will indicate Biden or Trump will win it?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We wont know the election results, until days later, due to fact it's a VBM election

They waited 3 months to finish counting my Provisonal ballot in Cali and they finished counting votes so late in Cali. 30 percent of precincts are only gonna be reporting on Election day

[MARGINS6729]

Watch the swing counties. Counties like Pinellas, Duval and Hillsborough to a lesser extent might give some early clues as to who will win the state. Biden will probably win the state if he wins Duval and Trump will almost certainly win the state if he wins Pinellas and/or Hillsborough.

Trump will not win Hillsborough- the county has moved from being a swing county into a reliably Democratic one. It's population has exploded with demographics that are favoring Democrats. In a bad year for Florida Dems, all of the statewide candidates won the county handily besides Sean Shaw who lost the Attorney General race to Ashley Moody by a big margin but in Hillsborough he only lost by 6,000 votes. It's not Orange County yet but in a few cycles it will be.

I agree with you on Pinellas though.

[Chips]

Watch the swing counties. Counties like Pinellas, Duval and Hillsborough to a lesser extent might give some early clues as to who will win the state. Biden will probably win the state if he wins Duval and Trump will almost certainly win the state if he wins Pinellas and/or Hillsborough.

Trump will not win Hillsborough- the county has moved from being a swing county into a reliably Democratic one. It's population has exploded with demographics that are favoring Democrats. In a bad year for Florida Dems, all of the statewide candidates won the county handily besides Sean Shaw who lost the Attorney General race to Ashley Moody by a big margin but in Hillsborough he only lost by 6,000 votes. It's not Orange County yet but in a few cycles it will be.

I agree with you on Pinellas though.

Yeah. I said "to a lesser extent" as it assumes Trump could win it if he does really good statewide.

[Use Your Illusion]

As a lifelong Pasco County resident, I can attest to the accuracy of these statements too



Edit: however Trump is going to absolutely dominate Pasco. Look for him to win by no less than 50,000 votes. He is a ing G.O.D to these people here

Isn't Pasco County that one on Live PD where white people are constantly getting arrested outside of bars?  If so, it definitely seems like Trump Country.

I'll just leave this here

https://www.tmz.com/2020/07/11/karen-calls-black-woman-a-good-little-slave-for-wearing-mask-at-bus-stop/?fbclid=IwAR2LKV8DqrLO4E48aqNjdPrVN1h8oHQyZKHH_tQNvVBP-pg3YMZ9Bm5_Mpc

Read at your own risk of killing brain cells

[Use Your Illusion]

As a lifelong Pasco County resident, I can attest to the accuracy of these statements too



Edit: however Trump is going to absolutely dominate Pasco. Look for him to win by no less than 50,000 votes. He is a ing G.O.D to these people here

Why has the county become so red since 2012? It's been Republican for a long time but used to be more purple. A lot of Midwestern retirees moving there who fit the same political box as those in The Villages and Southwest Florida?

Forgive me for starting off this post this way (insert ACKCHEWALLY meme here) but Pasco stopped being purple/competitive around 2000 and was full-fledged red in suburban areas by 2004. It's less about midwest retirees moving in and more like the local suburban populous that's grown up there or moved there for the last 20 years just exploded in the stereotypical "MERICA!!" department that favors conservatives after 9/11. Once that happened, your average middle-class person in a place like Land O' Lakes or Wesley Chapel is a "faith, guns, family, country" person with the white picket fence and 2 dogs in their yard and a "W '04" sticker on both their cars it just never stopped being that way and growing that way. The same applies to other areas like the Port Richey and Hudson. Although generally lower in income, those who would qualify as "blue-collar" are disproportionately Republican. Like at least 80% of them.

If you say anything remotely negative about Trump above a whisper any of these people would bust through the wall like the freaking Kool-Aid man with some sh**t they heard on Fox News. They DO NOT want to hear it.

[G_Master]

Watch the swing counties. Counties like Pinellas, Duval and Hillsborough to a lesser extent might give some early clues as to who will win the state. Biden will probably win the state if he wins Duval and Trump will almost certainly win the state if he wins Pinellas and/or Hillsborough.

Trump will not win Hillsborough- the county has moved from being a swing county into a reliably Democratic one. It's population has exploded with demographics that are favoring Democrats. In a bad year for Florida Dems, all of the statewide candidates won the county handily besides Sean Shaw who lost the Attorney General race to Ashley Moody by a big margin but in Hillsborough he only lost by 6,000 votes. It's not Orange County yet but in a few cycles it will be.

I agree with you on Pinellas though.

Why is Pinellas more swingy than Hillsborough anyway?

[MARGINS6729]

Watch the swing counties. Counties like Pinellas, Duval and Hillsborough to a lesser extent might give some early clues as to who will win the state. Biden will probably win the state if he wins Duval and Trump will almost certainly win the state if he wins Pinellas and/or Hillsborough.

Trump will not win Hillsborough- the county has moved from being a swing county into a reliably Democratic one. It's population has exploded with demographics that are favoring Democrats. In a bad year for Florida Dems, all of the statewide candidates won the county handily besides Sean Shaw who lost the Attorney General race to Ashley Moody by a big margin but in Hillsborough he only lost by 6,000 votes. It's not Orange County yet but in a few cycles it will be.

I agree with you on Pinellas though.

Yeah. I said "to a lesser extent" as it assumes Trump could win it if he does really good statewide.

No, Trump isn't going to sweep in Florida at this point. And even if he did Hillsborough wouldn't be one of the counties he would take. Ask GOP operatives/supporters who know what they are talking about and they will tell you that Trump will not outright win Hillsborough. It's still filled with ticket splitters/swing voters as well as a GOP base (hence Ashley Moody and Marco Rubio's extremely narrow wins there) but the county is moving away from the GOP to the point where the GOP's goal is to keep Democrats from winning the county handily.

[MARGINS6729]

Watch the swing counties. Counties like Pinellas, Duval and Hillsborough to a lesser extent might give some early clues as to who will win the state. Biden will probably win the state if he wins Duval and Trump will almost certainly win the state if he wins Pinellas and/or Hillsborough.

Trump will not win Hillsborough- the county has moved from being a swing county into a reliably Democratic one. It's population has exploded with demographics that are favoring Democrats. In a bad year for Florida Dems, all of the statewide candidates won the county handily besides Sean Shaw who lost the Attorney General race to Ashley Moody by a big margin but in Hillsborough he only lost by 6,000 votes. It's not Orange County yet but in a few cycles it will be.

I agree with you on Pinellas though.

Why is Pinellas more swingy than Hillsborough anyway?

It's whiter and older and is filled with non college educated whites. It has black and hispanic populations but not as much as Hillsborough.

[MARGINS6729]

As a lifelong Pasco County resident, I can attest to the accuracy of these statements too



Edit: however Trump is going to absolutely dominate Pasco. Look for him to win by no less than 50,000 votes. He is a ing G.O.D to these people here

Why has the county become so red since 2012? It's been Republican for a long time but used to be more purple. A lot of Midwestern retirees moving there who fit the same political box as those in The Villages and Southwest Florida?

Forgive me for starting off this post this way (insert ACKCHEWALLY meme here) but Pasco stopped being purple/competitive around 2000 and was full-fledged red in suburban areas by 2004. It's less about midwest retirees moving in and more like the local suburban populous that's grown up there or moved there for the last 20 years just exploded in the stereotypical "MERICA!!" department that favors conservatives after 9/11. Once that happened, your average middle-class person in a place like Land O' Lakes or Wesley Chapel is a "faith, guns, family, country" person with the white picket fence and 2 dogs in their yard and a "W '04" sticker on both their cars it just never stopped being that way and growing that way. The same applies to other areas like the Port Richey and Hudson. Although generally lower in income, those who would qualify as "blue-collar" are disproportionately Republican. Like at least 80% of them.

If you say anything remotely negative about Trump above a whisper any of these people would bust through the wall like the freaking Kool-Aid man with some sh**t they heard on Fox News. They DO NOT want to hear it.

I've heard the same thing about it getting redder from 2000 on but we saw Nelson win it in 2006 and 2012 by large margins while Obama lost it by respectable amounts in 2008 and 2012. Sink only lost it by 11,000 votes and Crist only lost it by 3,000 votes though Crist was obviously really popular in the Tampa Bay area. Were swing voters who resemble the types of voters you describe  who may have pulled the lever for the past democratic candidates I mentioned just swept up by Trump's brand or is it the new Midwestern retirees who are just cementing what was already there and  pushing it into solid GOP territory?

[MARGINS6729]

As a lifelong Pasco County resident, I can attest to the accuracy of these statements too



Edit: however Trump is going to absolutely dominate Pasco. Look for him to win by no less than 50,000 votes. He is a ing G.O.D to these people here

Why has the county become so red since 2012? It's been Republican for a long time but used to be more purple. A lot of Midwestern retirees moving there who fit the same political box as those in The Villages and Southwest Florida?

Forgive me for starting off this post this way (insert ACKCHEWALLY meme here) but Pasco stopped being purple/competitive around 2000 and was full-fledged red in suburban areas by 2004. It's less about midwest retirees moving in and more like the local suburban populous that's grown up there or moved there for the last 20 years just exploded in the stereotypical "MERICA!!" department that favors conservatives after 9/11. Once that happened, your average middle-class person in a place like Land O' Lakes or Wesley Chapel is a "faith, guns, family, country" person with the white picket fence and 2 dogs in their yard and a "W '04" sticker on both their cars it just never stopped being that way and growing that way. The same applies to other areas like the Port Richey and Hudson. Although generally lower in income, those who would qualify as "blue-collar" are disproportionately Republican. Like at least 80% of them.

If you say anything remotely negative about Trump above a whisper any of these people would bust through the wall like the freaking Kool-Aid man with some sh**t they heard on Fox News. They DO NOT want to hear it.

I've heard the same thing about it getting redder from 2000 on but we saw Nelson win it in 2006 and 2012 by large margins while Obama lost it by respectable amounts in 2008 and 2012. Sink only lost it by 11,000 votes and Crist only lost it by 3,000 votes though Crist was obviously really popular in the Tampa Bay area. Were swing voters who resemble the types of voters you describe  who may have pulled the lever for the past democratic candidates I mentioned just swept up by Trump's brand or is it the new Midwestern retirees who are just cementing what was already there and  pushing it into solid GOP territory?

[Non Swing Voter]

I'm curious how the rural areas that report early (if any) vote.  I feel like if Trump has any slippage (in turnout or margin) he's toast nationally.  I suspect turnout will be slightly higher in big cities and Trump is going to lose a lot of ground margin-wise in the suburbs.  So I think Trump really needs to accelerate his 2016 gains in the rural areas and exurbs.  Just a repeat probably won't be enough.

That's one thing I'll be looking for too early in the night. If anything, Trump needs to somehow squeeze more votes out of rural and exurban America (Pasco) than he did in 2016 because the suburbs are going to be nasty for him. Just keeping his 2016 rural and exurban margins probably isn't enough for any states to the left of Georgia.

Yeah.  As a general matter the rural and exurban areas are shrinking compared to the suburbs... maybe not as bad in Florida as elsewhere but it seems like if suburban turnout is through the roof like it was in the primaries then Trump is going to have to get not just really huge margins out of rural America but elevated turnout as well.  Seems like turnout was already high in 2016 so he's working with a high baseline that may be hard to maintain with the generally shrinking populations.   Demographics might finally be catching up with the GOP beyond just CO/VA.

[Gass3268]

Hopefully the ballot design in Southeast Florida is better than it was in 2018.

[Dereich]

Ignore Duval. By the nature of its population, Duval is extremely inflexible. The last few election cycles in the county looked like this:

08: 50R-48D
12: 51R-47D
16: 48R-47D

No Democrat has won the county since 1976. Even if Biden does overcome that 48% wall, its not going to be apparent until late in the night.

When I watched the election in 2016, it was the swings in Pasco (which swung from 52R-45D to 58R-37D) and Pinellas (52D-46R to 48R-46D) which caught me off guard and won Trump what I thought was a sure thing for Hillary. The other place I'll be watching is the mid-sized counties in upper-central Florida. The swings in those areas were huge and if they're fast we'll be able to see if Trump is getting the margins he needs before we get Panhandle numbers. That'd be places like Flagler County (53R-45D to 58R-37D) and Citrus County (58R-45D to 67R-28D).

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Watch the swing counties. Counties like Pinellas, Duval and Hillsborough to a lesser extent might give some early clues as to who will win the state. Biden will probably win the state if he wins Duval and Trump will almost certainly win the state if he wins Pinellas and/or Hillsborough.

I think whoever wins Pinellas wins Florida.

[krb08]

As a lifelong Pasco County resident, I can attest to the accuracy of these statements too



Edit: however Trump is going to absolutely dominate Pasco. Look for him to win by no less than 50,000 votes. He is a ing G.O.D to these people here

I'm sorry but as another lifelong Pasco resident, I don't think this is true. Pasco saw one of the largest swings toward Democrats of any FL county in 2018. As the state swung only 1% to Dems, Pasco swung several points.

Florida statewide:
2016-PRES: R+1.2

2018-GOV: R+0.4
2018-SEN: R+0.1
2018-AG COM: D+0.1

Pasco County:
2016-PRES: R+21

2018-GOV: R+16
2018-SEN: R+15
2018-AG COM: R+14

Obviously Trump will easily win it again, but look at the current national environment and the 2018 data. It is clear that Pasco has shifted towards Dems a bit since 2016, and Trump will not win it by the +21 he did then. I'm expecting an R+10 to R+15 margin. There is no data to suggest otherwise.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

As a lifelong Pasco County resident, I can attest to the accuracy of these statements too



Edit: however Trump is going to absolutely dominate Pasco. Look for him to win by no less than 50,000 votes. He is a ing G.O.D to these people here

I'm sorry but as another lifelong Pasco resident, I don't think this is true. Pasco saw one of the largest swings toward Democrats of any FL county in 2018. As the state swung only 1% to Dems, Pasco swung several points.

Florida statewide:
2016-PRES: R+1.2

2018-GOV: R+0.4
2018-SEN: R+0.1
2018-AG COM: D+0.1

Pasco County:
2016-PRES: R+21

2018-GOV: R+16
2018-SEN: R+15
2018-AG COM: R+14

Obviously Trump will easily win it again, but look at the current national environment and the 2018 data. It is clear that Pasco has shifted towards Dems a bit since 2016, and Trump will not win it by the +21 he did then. I'm expecting an R+10 to R+15 margin. There is no data to suggest otherwise.

It's not getting as many new residents from PR as the Orlando metro, but the population is growing.



https://www.bebr.ufl.edu/population/website-article/growth-puerto-rican-population-florida-and-us-mainland

How does Trump solve a problem like Maria?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Watch the swing counties. Counties like Pinellas, Duval and Hillsborough to a lesser extent might give some early clues as to who will win the state. Biden will probably win the state if he wins Duval and Trump will almost certainly win the state if he wins Pinellas and/or Hillsborough.

I think whoever wins Pinellas wins Florida.

Not necessarily true Charlie Crist won Pinellas in 2014, Andrew Gillum and Bill Nelson won Pinellas County in 2018. Now you can argue that Charlie Crist winning it was not a big deal because he's from that area so of course he would do well in it but winning Pinellas does not necessarily equate victory in the state.

[pbrower2a]

Biden can win the election without Florida; Trump cannot. If Florida should appear early as more D than the US as a whole (this will be before the huge numbers come out in New York, Illinois, and California), then Trump is probably going to lose Florida. Voter turnout usually decides elections, and should the voter numbers be higher in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Pasco... then Florida is gone for Trump. Likewise, should the more conservative and agrarian counties of northern Florida be lower in total vote, then Trump is done.

Look also for the voting percentage of the elderly. Older people have plenty to fear (cancer, strokes, falls, heart attacks, Parkinsonism, Alzheimer's) that they ordinarily cannot blame upon politicians of any kind. They can blame the bungled response to COVID-19 on the President and on Florida Republicans. If Biden wins a majority of the 65+ vote, then he has Florida locked up.

Look also at the Cuban-American vote. I expect Democrats to have Spanish-language ads comparing Donald Trump to this fellow:

 


Should such work, then Trump loses Florida.   

[MARGINS6729]

Watch the swing counties. Counties like Pinellas, Duval and Hillsborough to a lesser extent might give some early clues as to who will win the state. Biden will probably win the state if he wins Duval and Trump will almost certainly win the state if he wins Pinellas and/or Hillsborough.

I think whoever wins Pinellas wins Florida.

No- ask Bill Clinton in 92, Al Gore, Alex Sink, Charlie Crist, Andrew Gillum, and Bill Nelson. Pinellas is a swingy county but it isn't a bellwether county in the way people think it is. The truth is is Florida has no bellwether counties; it's how the raw vote margins pile up across the state that determine who will win.

[MARGINS6729]

As a lifelong Pasco County resident, I can attest to the accuracy of these statements too



Edit: however Trump is going to absolutely dominate Pasco. Look for him to win by no less than 50,000 votes. He is a ing G.O.D to these people here

I'm sorry but as another lifelong Pasco resident, I don't think this is true. Pasco saw one of the largest swings toward Democrats of any FL county in 2018. As the state swung only 1% to Dems, Pasco swung several points.

Florida statewide:
2016-PRES: R+1.2

2018-GOV: R+0.4
2018-SEN: R+0.1
2018-AG COM: D+0.1

Pasco County:
2016-PRES: R+21

2018-GOV: R+16
2018-SEN: R+15
2018-AG COM: R+14

Obviously Trump will easily win it again, but look at the current national environment and the 2018 data. It is clear that Pasco has shifted towards Dems a bit since 2016, and Trump will not win it by the +21 he did then. I'm expecting an R+10 to R+15 margin. There is no data to suggest otherwise.

 Pasco went hard for DeSantis and Scott though who both won it by big margins when you compare how Nelson did in the past there as well as how Crist and Sink did in their races. Gillum lost Pasco by 34,369 votes while Crist lost it by 2,859 votes and Sink lost it by 11,537 votes. Crist lost it in his 2010 Senate race by 9,779 while Nelson won it by 24,144 in 2012 only to lose it by 31,765 votes six years later. In 2016, Patrick Murphy lost it by 46,114 votes. In 2006, Nelson won Pasco by 28,833 votes while Davis lost it by 14,051 votes in the Gubernatorial race. And then in voter registration the GOP has gained 23,155 voters since the April report in 2016(Division of Elections latest report is the April 2020 report) while Democrats have gained only 10,247 voters since then. And at that point the GOP only had a 21,828 voter registration advantage. Now its 33,736. There are obviously some caveats here: voter registration can't be equated with election results, Obama was able to do well there in 2008/2012, Nelson ran a very poor campaign in 2018 and his last run was in a presidential year, Nikki Fried did slightly better than both Nelson and Gillum,  Biden is a better fit for the county than Clinton, Florida Democrats have an organization there now. But it seems like based on the evidence we have is that Pasco is getting redder at the moment although Wesley Chapel may get bluer if more Democratic leaning suburbanites move there. My prediction is that the lowest Trump can go in the county is a 40,000 votes win.

[MARGINS6729]

I'm curious how the rural areas that report early (if any) vote.  I feel like if Trump has any slippage (in turnout or margin) he's toast nationally.  I suspect turnout will be slightly higher in big cities and Trump is going to lose a lot of ground margin-wise in the suburbs.  So I think Trump really needs to accelerate his 2016 gains in the rural areas and exurbs.  Just a repeat probably won't be enough.

That's one thing I'll be looking for too early in the night. If anything, Trump needs to somehow squeeze more votes out of rural and exurban America (Pasco) than he did in 2016 because the suburbs are going to be nasty for him. Just keeping his 2016 rural and exurban margins probably isn't enough for any states to the left of Georgia.

Yeah.  As a general matter the rural and exurban areas are shrinking compared to the suburbs... maybe not as bad in Florida as elsewhere but it seems like if suburban turnout is through the roof like it was in the primaries then Trump is going to have to get not just really huge margins out of rural America but elevated turnout as well.  Seems like turnout was already high in 2016 so he's working with a high baseline that may be hard to maintain with the generally shrinking populations.   Demographics might finally be catching up with the GOP beyond just CO/VA.

What suburbs are you specifically talking about?

[krb08]

As a lifelong Pasco County resident, I can attest to the accuracy of these statements too



Edit: however Trump is going to absolutely dominate Pasco. Look for him to win by no less than 50,000 votes. He is a ing G.O.D to these people here

I'm sorry but as another lifelong Pasco resident, I don't think this is true. Pasco saw one of the largest swings toward Democrats of any FL county in 2018. As the state swung only 1% to Dems, Pasco swung several points.

Florida statewide:
2016-PRES: R+1.2

2018-GOV: R+0.4
2018-SEN: R+0.1
2018-AG COM: D+0.1

Pasco County:
2016-PRES: R+21

2018-GOV: R+16
2018-SEN: R+15
2018-AG COM: R+14

Obviously Trump will easily win it again, but look at the current national environment and the 2018 data. It is clear that Pasco has shifted towards Dems a bit since 2016, and Trump will not win it by the +21 he did then. I'm expecting an R+10 to R+15 margin. There is no data to suggest otherwise.

 Pasco went hard for DeSantis and Scott though who both won it by big margins when you compare how Nelson did in the past there as well as how Crist and Sink did in their races. Gillum lost Pasco by 34,369 votes while Crist lost it by 2,859 votes and Sink lost it by 11,537 votes. Crist lost it in his 2010 Senate race by 9,779 while Nelson won it by 24,144 in 2012 only to lose it by 31,765 votes six years later. In 2016, Patrick Murphy lost it by 46,114 votes. In 2006, Nelson won Pasco by 28,833 votes while Davis lost it by 14,051 votes in the Gubernatorial race. And then in voter registration the GOP has gained 23,155 voters since the April report in 2016(Division of Elections latest report is the April 2020 report) while Democrats have gained only 10,247 voters since then. And at that point the GOP only had a 21,828 voter registration advantage. Now its 33,736. There are obviously some caveats here: voter registration can't be equated with election results, Obama was able to do well there in 2008/2012, Nelson ran a very poor campaign in 2018 and his last run was in a presidential year, Nikki Fried did slightly better than both Nelson and Gillum,  Biden is a better fit for the county than Clinton, Florida Democrats have an organization there now. But it seems like based on the evidence we have is that Pasco is getting redder at the moment although Wesley Chapel may get bluer if more Democratic leaning suburbanites move there. My prediction is that the lowest Trump can go in the county is a 40,000 votes win.

Yes, Scott and DeSantis did do well there, but I'm comparing their performances to Trump 2016. They did several points worse than him even though their statewide margins were only a point worse.

I agree with you that the county has gotten a lot redder since the start of the decade, but the idea that Trump will hold his 2016 margin there is completely unfounded. Like I said, in 2018, Pasco moved several points to the left from Trump's 2016 margin, while the state as a whole barely budged. And as you said, voter registration isn't the best thing to look at. It's a lagging indicator of trends that have been happening for several years.

TL;DR Yes, Pasco has moved sharply to the right over the last decade. However, based on how much the county trended left from 2016-PRES to the major 2018 statewide races, Trump's margin will be reduced there.