What signs in the early returns in FL on Election Night will indicate Biden or Trump will win it?
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  What signs in the early returns in FL on Election Night will indicate Biden or Trump will win it?
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Author Topic: What signs in the early returns in FL on Election Night will indicate Biden or Trump will win it?  (Read 1623 times)
PoliticsWatcher1
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« on: July 11, 2020, 06:05:40 PM »

Just so I know what to watch out for.
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G_Master
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« Reply #1 on: July 11, 2020, 06:18:08 PM »

Tampa Bay area, Jacksonville area, Sarasota/Bradenton and other places along the gulf going blue or heading in that direction would be a good indicator I would say.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #2 on: July 11, 2020, 06:28:57 PM »

To be honest there really aren't any reliable ones. What mattered in 2016 led many people to believe Gillum and Nelson would win comfortably based on early returns in 2018 when they led easily in Pinellas County and also had leads in Duval, Seminole, and St. Lucie Counties. It ended up not mattering since they underperformed Clinton a lot in Miami-Dade.

Add in that the early returns this year will probably be heavily Republican-skewed with most Democrats voting by mail, and you just won't have really good indicators.
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tinman64
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« Reply #3 on: July 11, 2020, 06:33:13 PM »

I-4 Corridor.
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Devils30
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« Reply #4 on: July 11, 2020, 06:50:42 PM »

To be honest there really aren't any reliable ones. What mattered in 2016 led many people to believe Gillum and Nelson would win comfortably based on early returns in 2018 when they led easily in Pinellas County and also had leads in Duval, Seminole, and St. Lucie Counties. It ended up not mattering since they underperformed Clinton a lot in Miami-Dade.

Add in that the early returns this year will probably be heavily Republican-skewed with most Democrats voting by mail, and you just won't have really good indicators.

Florida can count mail ballots before Election Day so we’ll have 98% of the state probably that night.
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Use Your Illusion
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« Reply #5 on: July 11, 2020, 07:04:38 PM »

For Trump it's gonna be very easy to tell if he won early because he will carry the late returns on the panhandle by like 75%

If he gets a sizeable lead on Biden that maintains before Duval, Hillsborough, Pinellas, Orange, Broward and Miami-Dade counties are even done counting, then Biden is screwed because it means he has not only underperformed in the major counties but as well as in the rest of the state. The only way to tell Biden is gonna win early is if he is absolutely annihilating Trump from the get go. Like 225,000 votes annihilated and the lead holds while all those huge counties have only counted like 20% of their vote. The final figures will end up much closer, but the only way Biden is gonna win is if he gets the average non city voter to swing his way.


With Florida you gotta realize there's the major metro regions and everywhere else and the rest of the state combined plus any Republican vote from those metro areas is always the bigger number.
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Use Your Illusion
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« Reply #6 on: July 11, 2020, 07:05:34 PM »

To be honest there really aren't any reliable ones. What mattered in 2016 led many people to believe Gillum and Nelson would win comfortably based on early returns in 2018 when they led easily in Pinellas County and also had leads in Duval, Seminole, and St. Lucie Counties. It ended up not mattering since they underperformed Clinton a lot in Miami-Dade.

Add in that the early returns this year will probably be heavily Republican-skewed with most Democrats voting by mail, and you just won't have really good indicators.

Florida can count mail ballots before Election Day so we’ll have 98% of the state probably that night.

sh**t I didn't even consider that. That's true too
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #7 on: July 11, 2020, 07:17:24 PM »

If Biden doesn't lead by 4%+ before the Panhandle comes it.....then Trump is winning the state
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #8 on: July 11, 2020, 07:19:47 PM »

To be honest there really aren't any reliable ones. What mattered in 2016 led many people to believe Gillum and Nelson would win comfortably based on early returns in 2018 when they led easily in Pinellas County and also had leads in Duval, Seminole, and St. Lucie Counties. It ended up not mattering since they underperformed Clinton a lot in Miami-Dade.

Add in that the early returns this year will probably be heavily Republican-skewed with most Democrats voting by mail, and you just won't have really good indicators.

This site says they can start Election Day: https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx

Florida can count mail ballots before Election Day so we’ll have 98% of the state probably that night.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #9 on: July 11, 2020, 07:22:29 PM »

To be honest there really aren't any reliable ones. What mattered in 2016 led many people to believe Gillum and Nelson would win comfortably based on early returns in 2018 when they led easily in Pinellas County and also had leads in Duval, Seminole, and St. Lucie Counties. It ended up not mattering since they underperformed Clinton a lot in Miami-Dade.

Add in that the early returns this year will probably be heavily Republican-skewed with most Democrats voting by mail, and you just won't have really good indicators.

This site says they can start Election Day: https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx

Florida can count mail ballots before Election Day so we’ll have 98% of the state probably that night.

Yeah we have been doing this for 20 years now we're good at counting votes early. We should have almost all the state reporting on E-night
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #10 on: July 11, 2020, 07:24:42 PM »

To be honest there really aren't any reliable ones. What mattered in 2016 led many people to believe Gillum and Nelson would win comfortably based on early returns in 2018 when they led easily in Pinellas County and also had leads in Duval, Seminole, and St. Lucie Counties. It ended up not mattering since they underperformed Clinton a lot in Miami-Dade.

Add in that the early returns this year will probably be heavily Republican-skewed with most Democrats voting by mail, and you just won't have really good indicators.

This site says they can start Election Day: https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx

Florida can count mail ballots before Election Day so we’ll have 98% of the state probably that night.

Yeah we have been doing this for 20 years now we're good at counting votes early. We should have almost all the state reporting on E-night

Well, let's pray to God Biden wins it. That would destroy Trump's inevitable "the election was stolen" when late returns in other states put them in the D column
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #11 on: July 11, 2020, 07:35:27 PM »

Watch Pinellas County. They really push Mail voting and report quickly. Election day is normally a little more Republican so knock a couple points Biden's margin after the Absentee and Early vote drops. 
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #12 on: July 11, 2020, 07:38:45 PM »

If Biden doesn't lead by 4%+ before the Panhandle comes it.....then Trump is winning the state

Depends. Broward has been notoriously slow in the past so even though it closes an hour before the panhandle it is normally the last finished.
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MARGINS6729
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« Reply #13 on: July 11, 2020, 07:47:47 PM »

Look at Pasco County an exurban/suburban county in Central Florida on the I-75 coastline. They report first consistently. Steve Schale, Democratic strategist in Florida, knew that Pasco was a bad sign for Hillary as Trump killed her there by nearly 52,000 votes. It's only gotten more GOP which makes it an unreliable bellwether to a certain extent  and there are much more Democratic areas that report afterwards that could balance it out plus Biden is probably a better fit for the county overall. Basically, Democrats have to be ahead by a big margin statewide before the Panhandle counties come in.
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TML
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« Reply #14 on: July 11, 2020, 08:07:40 PM »

The very first sign is Pasco County, which reports its early/absentee voting results at 7 pm sharp. If Trump is leading that group by tens of thousands of votes, his chances of winning FL are better than even. If Biden is leading that group or trailing by less than 10000 votes or so, he is probably on track to winning FL.

Of course, check Biden’s lead at around 7:45-7:50 pm, shortly before the Central time zone counties start reporting. If Biden’s lead is at least 250K votes or so, he is on track to win FL. If it’s less than 200K votes or so, Trump is on track to win FL.
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Use Your Illusion
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« Reply #15 on: July 11, 2020, 08:17:35 PM »

As a lifelong Pasco County resident, I can attest to the accuracy of these statements too



Edit: however Trump is going to absolutely dominate Pasco. Look for him to win by no less than 50,000 votes. He is a ing G.O.D to these people here
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #16 on: July 11, 2020, 08:37:15 PM »

If Biden doesn't lead by 4%+ before the Panhandle comes it.....then Trump is winning the state

Clinton won the counties in the eastern time zone by about 1%, she lost statewide by 1% so any lead over 2% before the panhandle reports Biden has a shot.
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« Reply #17 on: July 11, 2020, 08:48:21 PM »

As a lifelong Pasco County resident, I can attest to the accuracy of these statements too



Edit: however Trump is going to absolutely dominate Pasco. Look for him to win by no less than 50,000 votes. He is a ing G.O.D to these people here

Isn't Pasco County that one on Live PD where white people are constantly getting arrested outside of bars?  If so, it definitely seems like Trump Country.
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« Reply #18 on: July 11, 2020, 08:50:50 PM »

I'm curious how the rural areas that report early (if any) vote.  I feel like if Trump has any slippage (in turnout or margin) he's toast nationally.  I suspect turnout will be slightly higher in big cities and Trump is going to lose a lot of ground margin-wise in the suburbs.  So I think Trump really needs to accelerate his 2016 gains in the rural areas and exurbs.  Just a repeat probably won't be enough.
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MARGINS6729
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« Reply #19 on: July 11, 2020, 09:07:45 PM »

As a lifelong Pasco County resident, I can attest to the accuracy of these statements too



Edit: however Trump is going to absolutely dominate Pasco. Look for him to win by no less than 50,000 votes. He is a ing G.O.D to these people here

Why has the county become so red since 2012? It's been Republican for a long time but used to be more purple. A lot of Midwestern retirees moving there who fit the same political box as those in The Villages and Southwest Florida?
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Devils30
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« Reply #20 on: July 11, 2020, 09:35:59 PM »

As a lifelong Pasco County resident, I can attest to the accuracy of these statements too



Edit: however Trump is going to absolutely dominate Pasco. Look for him to win by no less than 50,000 votes. He is a ing G.O.D to these people here

I would be careful holding out Pasco as a bellwether this time around. I could see Trump winning by like 16 there but Biden getting +5-10% margins out of Duval and Seminole. Also could see Trump slipping in Collier, St John's due to high education rates (unlike Pasco, Hernando, Citrus).
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #21 on: July 11, 2020, 10:27:55 PM »

I'm curious how the rural areas that report early (if any) vote.  I feel like if Trump has any slippage (in turnout or margin) he's toast nationally.  I suspect turnout will be slightly higher in big cities and Trump is going to lose a lot of ground margin-wise in the suburbs.  So I think Trump really needs to accelerate his 2016 gains in the rural areas and exurbs.  Just a repeat probably won't be enough.

That's one thing I'll be looking for too early in the night. If anything, Trump needs to somehow squeeze more votes out of rural and exurban America (Pasco) than he did in 2016 because the suburbs are going to be nasty for him. Just keeping his 2016 rural and exurban margins probably isn't enough for any states to the left of Georgia.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #22 on: July 12, 2020, 04:31:10 AM »

IIRC, it was initially reported early in the counting that turnout was up in the "Blue Three" of Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade Counties -- yet we all know how that turned out. 

If I had to put my finger on an indicator, it would be Duval County.  If Biden is doing well there, then I'd expect him to be pulling his weight in other Sunshine swing counties (such as Pinellas). But, then again, Florida is such a large amd politically diverse state that I wouldn't likely be comfy in making a call until most of the precincts have reported. 
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #23 on: July 12, 2020, 05:15:32 AM »

Biden needs to be ahead by at least 300,000 votes before the Panhandle comes on. Otherwise, Trump is likely to win Florida.
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Chips
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« Reply #24 on: July 12, 2020, 05:35:30 AM »

Watch the swing counties. Counties like Pinellas, Duval and Hillsborough to a lesser extent might give some early clues as to who will win the state. Biden will probably win the state if he wins Duval and Trump will almost certainly win the state if he wins Pinellas and/or Hillsborough.
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