Trump gets some good election news: GOP voter registrations outpace Dems

[pppolitics]

It was a flicker of hope for Donald Trump in an otherwise dismal summer.

Late last month, the Democratic data firm TargetSmart found that while new voter registrations had plummeted amid the coronavirus pandemic, those who were registering in competitive states tended to be whiter, older and less Democratic than before.

When he saw the numbers, Ben Wessel, executive director of NextGen America, said he "got nervous," and other Democratic-leaning groups felt the same.

The report seemed to confirm what state elections officials and voter registration groups had been seeing in the field for weeks: Neither Democrats nor Republicans had been registering many voters during the pandemic. But Democrats were suffering disproportionately from the slowdown.

[...]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/11/trump-voter-registration-355152

[roxas11]

This is weird story
the title of the story hypes up good news for trump but the actual story ends with a Republican strategist saying this



A prominent Republican strategist involved in voter registration efforts described the Republican Party’s work in the area as lagging behind. The TargetSmart report, the person said, suggested that Republicans had an opening they failed to fully exploit.

“That’s why we need to press the f------ advantage," he said, "and we’re not.”

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

This is weird story


the title of the post  hypes up good news for trump but the actual story ends with a Republican strategist saying this



A prominent Republican strategist involved in voter registration efforts described the Republican Party’s work in the area as lagging behind. The TargetSmart report, the person said, suggested that Republicans had an opening they failed to fully exploit.

“That’s why we need to press the f------ advantage," he said, "and we’re not.”

I read that as "we're up, but not up by as much as we should be given the circumstances."

[DINGO Joe]

The story doesn't provide hard numbers, but it was like they were up for a month when there were almost no voter registration, but they're down quite a bit over the whole cycle. 

[SnowLabrador]

This is why the pandemic helps Republicans. Anti-GOP sentiment means nothing if Democrats won't or can't vote.

[Nyvin]

This doesn't fit in with numbers seen in states like Nevada

[Tender Branson]

This is actually true for example in IA:

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/voterreg/county.html

Dems were ahead of Reps by 14.000 on March 1, but Reps narrowed the gap every month and are now ahead by 1.000 as of July 1.

[wbrocks67]

Registration seemed to surge with the protests in June - this doesn't seem to really account for that

[Alben Barkley]

This is why the pandemic helps Republicans. Anti-GOP sentiment means nothing if Democrats won't or can't vote.

Didn’t the Wisconsin primary/court race already disprove this BS “theory” that Dems won’t vote in the pandemic.

In fact Dems seem to have been getting better turnout in most states.

Quit with the f—king concern trolling already.

[SnowLabrador]

This is why the pandemic helps Republicans. Anti-GOP sentiment means nothing if Democrats won't or can't vote.

Didn’t the Wisconsin primary/court race already disprove this BS “theory” that Dems won’t vote in the pandemic.

In fact Dems seem to have been getting better turnout in most states.

Quit with the f—king concern trolling already.

I'm referring to the registrations going down, since many states will purge their rolls before the election.

[BudgieForce]

Respectfully, this article is a mess. It's starts with the premise that republican registration has caught up, then it says "well maybe not", than it says there's been a surge for democrats because of the protests.

[Tintrlvr]

It wouldn’t surprise me if Dem registration got frontloaded by a competitive primary, so Rep registration has been more steady. Doesn’t really say much one way or another.

[Spark]

See? Things are getting somewhat better.

[Beet]

Trump is in a stronger position in Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania than he was in 2016, while Biden is in a weaker position than Hillary Clinton, who lost. Voter registration data is more reliable than polls because it is actual data.

Dem registration surged in California and the District of Columbia after BLM, but that won't change the Electoral College.

[woodley park]

There's also this buried in the middle of the story, which makes it all seem like a nothingburger wrapped in a typical Politico concern troll headline:

Because overall registration numbers have been so low across the board during the pandemic, Republican gains during that period have been too small in most cases to make up for months of pre-pandemic Democratic advances. Tom Bonier, TargetSmart's CEO, compared the registration shift to a footrace that was suddenly forced into slow motion. During that time, Republicans, though still behind, “got a couple of extra steps” closer to Democrats.

“It’s not like they’ve built the lead,” Bonier said. “It’s really something where neither side should be celebrating or panicking about.”

Looking at newer data this week, Bonier found Democrats increased their share of registrations in June over the previous month in several states that have reported registrations for that month. He also noticed an uptick in registrations after the George Floyd demonstrations began. In California, a heavily Democratic state, overall registrations spiked after the first weekend of demonstrations in late May and early June.

[soundchaser]

Voter registration data is more reliable than polls because it is actual data.

You do know that polls are also made of data, right? (And voter registration doesn't necessarily mean anything: I registered to vote as a Republican when I graduated high school but never voted for a Republican presidential candidate.)

[DrScholl]

Trump is in a stronger position in Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania than he was in 2016, while Biden is in a weaker position than Hillary Clinton, who lost. Voter registration data is more reliable than polls because it is actual data.

Dem registration surged in California and the District of Columbia after BLM, but that won't change the Electoral College.

He's not in a stronger position. At this point you are just being delusional.

[Suburbia]

Voter registration does not matter.

What matters is who comes out to vote.

They are a lot of white Americans who have never voted in their lives, until 2016. They weren't even swayed by Reagan in the 80s.

For some reason, Trump made them tune in.

[Hammy]

See? Things are getting somewhat better.

I see somebody hasn't read a word of the article.

[Bomster]

Does this mean trump will win Pennsylvania? Cuz according to a previous post Rs outpaced Ds there by a lot..

[Bidenworth2020]

Trump is in a stronger position in Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania than he was in 2016, while Biden is in a weaker position than Hillary Clinton, who lost. Voter registration data is more reliable than polls because it is actual data.

Dem registration surged in California and the District of Columbia after BLM, but that won't change the Electoral College.

You didn't read the article.

[BudgieForce]

Party registration shifts since 2016:

AZ (1277242-1370887)-(1091323-1239614)=D+54646 11/8/16->4/1/20
FL (5127920-4851116)-(4877749-4550311)=R+50634 10/18/16->4/30/20
NC (2531992-2094960)-(2733188-2086942)=R+209214 11/8/16->7/4/20
PA (4095700-3299465)-(4217456-3301182)=R+120039 11/8/16->6/29/20

(GA, MN, MI, WI don't have party registration other than in some cases which primary people voted in.)

AZ https://azsos.gov/elections/voter-registration-historical-election-data/voter-registration-counts
FL https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/
NC https://vt.ncsbe.gov/RegStat/
PA https://www.dos.pa.gov/VotingElections/OtherServicesEvents/VotingElectionStatistics/Pages/VotingElectionStatistics.aspx

I think it's slightly misleading. "Unaffiliated" has substantially increased in all 4 states. As we've seen, young people are less likely to identify with a party. Combined with ancestral democrats leaving to become republicans and its really not as clear cut as Beet is making it seem.

Just in terms of Florida, when you register at the DMV, you usually get registered by default as an "unaffiliated" unless the clerk specifically asks you. When I registered to vote at the DMV, there was no paperwork.

[BudgieForce]

Does this mean trump will win Pennsylvania? Cuz according to a previous post Rs outpaced Ds there by a lot..

It doesnt mean that, just like Biden getting more votes than Trump in the PA primary doesnt mean he'll win either.

[BudgieForce]

Yes, and no. Changes in non-D/R registration (keep in mind that party registration is the strongest predictor of vote, and independents aren't left-leaning in every state):

AZ IND (3929260-1277242-1370887)-(3588466-1091323-1239614)=23602 11/8/16->4/1/20
FL IND (13731883-5127920-4851116)-(12863773-4877749-4550311)=317134 10/18/16->4/30/20
NC IND (7004459-2531992-2094960)-(6918150-2733188-2086942)=279487 11/8/16->7/4/20
PA IND (8612628-4095700-3299465)-(8722977-4217456-3301182)=13124 11/8/16->6/29/20

Info on ages of new registrants relative to nation from Twitter:

https://twitter.com/oblivionrecurs/status/1271950966355570690

Summary of trends registration trends:

AZ: Solid D gains in registration, older new voters, few new unaffiliated.
FL: Solid R gains in registration, older new voters, many new unaffiliated.
NC: Very strong R gains in registration, younger new voters, many new unaffiliated.
NC: Strong R gains in registration, younger new voters, very few new unaffiliated.

I think having a cutoff of 1998 for a young voter seems unnecessary. I'm not saying new voters are less likely to be affiliated with a party, I'm saying young people.

Honestly, it just feels rather arbitrary trying to compare these numbers after 2018 when many suburban republicans voted for democratic candidates and vice-versa with ancestral democrats voting republican.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Well, I guess that's that then. Between Trump finally caving and wearing a mask, and this news the election is really turning around for him. It's safe R now.