Dems want Biden to go big, his campaign is being more cautious

[The Ex-Factor]

With President Trump’s poll numbers sliding in traditional battlegrounds as well as conservative-leaning states, and money pouring into Democratic campaigns, Joseph R. Biden Jr. is facing rising pressure to expand his ambitions, compete aggressively in more states and press his party’s advantage down the ballot.

In a series of phone calls, Democratic lawmakers and party officials have lobbied Mr. Biden and his top aides to seize what they believe could be a singular opportunity not only to defeat Mr. Trump but to rout him and discredit what they believe is his dangerous style of racial demagogy.

This election, the officials argue, offers the provocative possibility of a new path to the presidency through fast-changing states like Georgia and Texas, and a chance to install a generation of lawmakers who can cement Democratic control of Congress and help redraw legislative maps following this year’s census.

Mr. Biden’s campaign, though, is so far hewing to a more conservative path. It is focused mostly on a handful of traditional battlegrounds, where it is only now scaling up and naming top aides despite having claimed the nomination in April.

At the moment, Mr. Biden is airing TV ads in just six states, all of which Mr. Trump won four years ago: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina and Florida. The campaign included perennially close Florida only after some deliberations about whether it was worth the hefty price tag, and when Mr. Trump’s struggles with older populations made it clearly competitive, according to Democrats familiar with their discussions.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/11/us/politics/trump-biden-2020-election.html

Interesting that Biden's campaign was reluctant to even put up ads in Florida because they thought it wasn't worth it. You would think it's a no-brainer given how close it is to being the tipping point state.

[pppolitics]

WASHINGTON — With President Trump’s poll numbers sliding in traditional battlegrounds as well as conservative-leaning states, and money pouring into Democratic campaigns, Joseph R. Biden Jr. is facing rising pressure to expand his ambitions, compete aggressively in more states and press his party’s advantage down the ballot.

In a series of phone calls, Democratic lawmakers and party officials have lobbied Mr. Biden and his top aides to seize what they believe could be a singular opportunity not only to defeat Mr. Trump but to rout him and discredit what they believe is his dangerous style of racial demagogy.

This election, the officials argue, offers the provocative possibility of a new path to the presidency through fast-changing states like Georgia and Texas, and a chance to install a generation of lawmakers who can cement Democratic control of Congress and help redraw legislative maps following this year’s census.

Mr. Biden’s campaign, though, is so far hewing to a more conservative path. It is focused mostly on a handful of traditional battlegrounds, where it is only now scaling up and naming top aides despite having claimed the nomination in April.

[...]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/11/us/politics/trump-biden-2020-election.html

[pppolitics]

Georgia and Texas represent the future for the Democratic Party and could be good investments.

Ohio, on the other hand, represents the past, so I don't see why investments should be made there.

[MT Treasurer]

I could maybe understand OH and even TX, but if Democrats don’t seriously contest GA this year they’re pretty incompetent.

[Mr. Illini]

I agree with your take on Florida. However, I am happy about the campaign’s reluctance in Georgia and Texas. It’s likely that the race will narrow and even if it doesn’t, you have to prepare as if it will. If it does, it’s unlikely that his path to victory would be through Georgia and Texas before the Rust Belt. Keep going hard in WI/MI/PA and lock those states up.

[MT Treasurer]

I agree with your take on Florida. However, I am happy about the campaign’s reluctance in Georgia and Texas. It’s likely that the race will narrow and even if it doesn’t, you have to prepare as if it will. If it does, it’s unlikely that his path to victory would be through Georgia and Texas before the Rust Belt. Keep going hard in WI/MI/PA and lock those states up.

Mitch McConnell will be very happy to hear that.

[pppolitics]

I could maybe understand OH and even TX, but if Democrats don’t seriously contest GA this year they’re pretty incompetent.

I think it ultimately depends on cash on hand.

If Biden has plenty of money, I don't see why he shouldn't drop some in GA and TX.

If, on the other hand, he is on a cash crush, I can see why he would hold off.

[lfromnj]

Georgia and Texas represent the future for the Democratic Party and could be good investments.

Ohio, on the other hand, represents the past, so I don't see why investments should be made there.

Theres one reason for Ohio, The Ohio supreme court and redistricting power, This could push Democrats from 2 D seats in Ohio all the way upto 5 or maybe even 6 in a Biden midterm.

[BlueGrassKentuckian]

Texas seems like it would be more difficult to flip especially if he is underperforming with Hispanics. I would wait till atleast closer to the election, maybe after a debate or two.

[Epaminondas]

I agree with your take on Florida. However, I am happy about the campaign’s reluctance in Georgia and Texas. It’s likely that the race will narrow and even if it doesn’t, you have to prepare as if it will. If it does, it’s unlikely that his path to victory would be through Georgia and Texas before the Rust Belt. Keep going hard in WI/MI/PA and lock those states up.

I hope you realise that if Mitch McConnell keeps the Senate, nothing will happen in the next 2 years. Have you forgotten 2015 or Merrick Garland?

Georgia has 2 Senate seats up in November, ignoring them while knowing that a Biden presidency without the Senate is neutered would be almost criminal.

[pppolitics]

Georgia and Texas represent the future for the Democratic Party and could be good investments.

Ohio, on the other hand, represents the past, so I don't see why investments should be made there.

Theres one reason for Ohio, The Ohio supreme court and redistricting power, This could push Democrats from 2 D seats in Ohio all the way upto 5 or maybe even 6 in a Biden midterm.

Even then, working against the tide, any victories would be fleeting.

Also, Governor DeWine (who is not up for reelection) would have veto power over any redistricting maps.

[DrScholl]

Texas alone would flip this election which is enough to contest it. But the goal shouldn't be to win just the minimum of 270, it should be to exceed that a much as possible.

[pppolitics]

Texas alone would flip this election which is enough to contest it. But the goal shouldn't be to win just the minimum of 270, it should be to exceed that a much as possible.

TX is an expensive state

I wonder how much it would cost to make it flip.

[pppolitics]

Texas seems like it would be more difficult to flip especially if he is underperforming with Hispanics. I would wait till atleast closer to the election, maybe after a debate or two.

What evidence do we have that Biden is 'underperforming' with Hispanics?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Texas seems like it would be more difficult to flip especially if he is underperforming with Hispanics. I would wait till atleast closer to the election, maybe after a debate or two.

What evidence do we have that Biden is 'underperforming' with Hispanics?

That recent poll of Hispanic voters, for one.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I agree with your take on Florida. However, I am happy about the campaign’s reluctance in Georgia and Texas. It’s likely that the race will narrow and even if it doesn’t, you have to prepare as if it will. If it does, it’s unlikely that his path to victory would be through Georgia and Texas before the Rust Belt. Keep going hard in WI/MI/PA and lock those states up.

I hope you realise that if Mitch McConnell keeps the Senate, nothing will happen in the next 2 years. Have you forgotten 2015 or Merrick Garland?

Georgia has 2 Senate seats up in November, ignoring them while knowing that a Biden presidency without the Senate is neutered would be almost criminal.

These Senate campaigns are up to the DSCC, not Biden's outfit. You're (correctly) making a case for better funding of that group as opposed to the presidential campaign.

[Babeuf]

I agree with your take on Florida. However, I am happy about the campaign’s reluctance in Georgia and Texas. It’s likely that the race will narrow and even if it doesn’t, you have to prepare as if it will. If it does, it’s unlikely that his path to victory would be through Georgia and Texas before the Rust Belt. Keep going hard in WI/MI/PA and lock those states up.

I hope you realise that if Mitch McConnell keeps the Senate, nothing will happen in the next 2 years. Have you forgotten 2015 or Merrick Garland?

Georgia has 2 Senate seats up in November, ignoring them while knowing that a Biden presidency without the Senate is neutered would be almost criminal.

These Senate campaigns are up to the DSCC, not Biden's outfit. You're (correctly) making a case for betting funding of that group as opposed to the presidential campaign.

The Biden campaign funding gotv efforts and anti-Trump advertising lifts all Dem boats.

The Biden campaign is going to be supremely well funded, no reason to not throw some money and effort at these states.

[pppolitics]

Texas seems like it would be more difficult to flip especially if he is underperforming with Hispanics. I would wait till atleast closer to the election, maybe after a debate or two.

What evidence do we have that Biden is 'underperforming' with Hispanics?

That recent poll of Hispanic voters, for one.

I have seen that poll, but do we have data for how that pollster performed in the past?

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

Joseph R. Biden Jr.

Makes me cringe every time

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I agree with your take on Florida. However, I am happy about the campaign’s reluctance in Georgia and Texas. It’s likely that the race will narrow and even if it doesn’t, you have to prepare as if it will. If it does, it’s unlikely that his path to victory would be through Georgia and Texas before the Rust Belt. Keep going hard in WI/MI/PA and lock those states up.

I hope you realise that if Mitch McConnell keeps the Senate, nothing will happen in the next 2 years. Have you forgotten 2015 or Merrick Garland?

Georgia has 2 Senate seats up in November, ignoring them while knowing that a Biden presidency without the Senate is neutered would be almost criminal.

These Senate campaigns are up to the DSCC, not Biden's outfit. You're (correctly) making a case for betting funding of that group as opposed to the presidential campaign.

The Biden campaign funding gotv efforts and anti-Trump advertising lifts all Dem boats.

The Biden campaign is going to be supremely well funded, no reason to not throw some money and effort at these states.

If they're saturated in potential tipping point states on a certain measure, I agree there's little reason not to invest in the basics like voter registration drives in reach states, especially ones with Senate races. I can't blame staffers for being bearish when they're not *quite* saturated, as they don't want to be associated with "HRC expands the map and loses the election: electric boogaloo" and if the campaign wants to prioritise Senate control, they're probably best off just giving the money to the DSCC.

[wbrocks67]

Texas seems like it would be more difficult to flip especially if he is underperforming with Hispanics. I would wait till atleast closer to the election, maybe after a debate or two.

What evidence do we have that Biden is 'underperforming' with Hispanics?

That recent poll of Hispanic voters, for one.

I have seen that poll, but do we have data for how that pollster performed in the past?

Polls are also constantly underrating Dems support with Hispanics as well. We've seen this multiple times now.

[Devils30]

How much this matters is a question. There won't be any big campaign rallies, ads on TV barely matter (lets be honest). Biden can win Texas but it will be his 388th electoral vote at the earliest. Bloomberg's $ is what Ds should be asking for.

[wbrocks67]

How much this matters is a question. There won't be any big campaign rallies, ads on TV barely matter (lets be honest). Biden can win Texas but it will be his 388th electoral vote at the earliest. Bloomberg's $ is what Ds should be asking for.

Yeah, is Bloomberg doing anything? I know he did his whole "I will pledge all this money to help Dems in 2020", but is he even helping house candidates yet, like he did in 2018

[Suburbia]

Ohio is not the past.

MI/PA/WI/AZ/NH/FL/NV/OH/IA is what they should be focusing on.

[pppolitics]

Ohio is not the past.

MI/PA/WI/AZ/NH/FL/NV/OH/IA is what they should be focusing on.

What are some favorable trends in OH and IA?