CIP Election Tracker - October 2020

[OBD]

Due to significant doubt as to the accuracy of the CIP count, the CIP will wait until the officially certified results to report the official numbers to you. Apologies!

[OBD]

Okay everyone. I've officially recanvassed the House ballots, and these are my findings.

Quota = 17

Adam Griffin 20 votes [ELECTED, 3 vote surplus]
Rep. Joseph Cao 15 votes [ELECTED with Spark reallocation, now has 1 vote surplus]
SevenEleven 17 votes [ELECTED]
FalterinArc 16 votes [ELECTED with AG surplus]
Razze 16 votes (likely elected from AG surplus)
TexasGurl 17 votes [ELECTED]
Jessica 16 votes (likely elected with Cao surplus)
WestMidlander 15 votes (fate unclear)
beeman 15 votes (fate unclear)
Poirot 15 votes (fate unclear - of note that 1 of Sev's 17 voters 2nd preffed him)
Spark 2 votes (reallocate to Cao
Battista Minola 1 vote (reallocate to Falterin)
Invalid: 5

The four bolded candidates, plus Razze, TexasGurl, and Jessica, have all likely been elected to the House. One of Beeman, WestMidlander, and Poirot will be eliminated. I hope this is enough data for someone with better knowledge of the election system to determine results.

Also, if anyone has the means, I BEG you to make another count, to ensure accuracy.

[OBD]

ANNOUNCEMENT: thanks to wulfric, i found an error in my count. Cao is actually at 15, and TexasGurl is at 17. Sorry for confuse

[OBD]

Presidential Election (106/185) 63% reporting
Vice President MB (L-Northern Marianas) / Senator TedBessell (L-CA): 65 votes 56.03% ✓
Lincoln Councillor Ninja (DA-NJ) / Senator LouisvilleThunder (F-KY): 46 votes 39.66%
Southern Delegate KoopaDaQuick (P-AR) / Census Lady Peebs (P-NC) (write-in): 4 votes 3.45%
Other: 1 votes 0.86%

Presidential Election, Final Round
Vice President MB (L-Northern Marianas) / Senator TedBessell (L-CA): 61 votes 59.65% ✓
Lincoln Councillor Ninja (DA-NJ) / Senator LouisvilleThunder (F-KY): 43 votes 40.35%
Last Vote Counted: gorguf
Invalid: DemocraticHawk, Bomster, NeederNodder, Talleyrand

House Election (116/185) 63% reporting

Labor-Peace Slate: 70 votes 60.34%
- FalterinArc (L-WA) 16 votes ✓
- SevenEleven (L-CA) 12 votes ✓
- AdamGriffin (L-Scotland) 19 votes ✓
- Razze (P-FL) 13 votes ✓
- TexasGurl (I-NY) 10 votes
Federalist Slate: 34 votes 29.31%
- Joseph Cao (F-IL) 8 votes
- Spark498 (F-FL) 2 votes
- Jessica (F-MS) 12 votes ✓
- WestMidlander (F-NC) 12 votes ✓
Democratic Aliance Slate: 7 votes 6.03%
- beeman (DA-IL) 7 votes
Liberal Slate: 4 votes 3.45%
- Poirot (LIB - NY) 4 votes
Independent Slate: 1 vote 0.86%
- Battista Minola (I-NM) (write-in) 1 votes
Last Vote Counted: Gorguf
Current Quota: 11 _{= floor(106/10)+1}

Current Prediction: 95% Chance of Labor-Peace Majority 5% Chance of Hung House

Frémont Senate Election (30/45) 67% reporting
Senator Devout Centrist (Labor-Arizona): 19 votes 63.33% ✓
Fmr. MP AustralianSwingVoter (Democratic Alliance-Washington) (write-in): 11 votes 36.67%
Last Vote Counted: IndyRep

Lincoln Senate Election (49/70) 70% reporting
Senator tack50 (Labor-Maine): 31 votes 63.27% ✓
Representative Joseph Cao (Federalist-Illinois): 9 votes 18.37%
Fmr. Representative Poirot (Liberal-New York): 9 votes 18.37%
Last Vote Counted: Gorguf
Invalid Votes: Winfield(x2), UBI Man Good (x2)

Southern Senate Election (42/70) 60% reporting
Senator LouisvilleThunder (Federalist-Kentucky) 21 votes 50% ✓
Representative Razze (Peace-Florida) 19 votes 45.24%
Other: 2 votes 4.76%
Last Vote Counted: Fairbol
Invalid: PragPop

Southern Gubernatorial Election (42/70) 60% reporting
Governor TimTurner (Labor-Texas): 22 votes 52.38%
Representative Spark498 (Federalist-Florida): 18 votes 42.86%
Other/Didn't Vote: 2 votes 4.76%

Current Prediction: 55% Chance of Spark Win

Southern Chamber Election (51/70) 73% reporting

Labor-Peace Slate: 21 votes 41.18%
- TimTurner (L-TX) 9 votes ✓
- KoopaDaQuick (P-AR) 12 votes ✓
Federalist Slate: 20 votes 39.22%
- Ben Kenobi (F-TX) 1 votes
- DTC (F-GA) 7 votes ✓
- reaganete (F-MO) 12 votes ✓
Democratic Alliance Slate: 10 votes 19.61%
- tmthforu94 (DA-KS) 9 votes ✓
- weatherboy1102 (DA-SC) 1 votes
Others: 0 votes 0%
Last Vote Counted: tmth

HUNG CHAMBER!

Lincoln Council Election (49/70) 70% reporting (5 councilors elected)

Labor Slate: 29 votes 59.18%
- S019 (L-NJ) 11 votes ✓
- Wulfric (L-PA) 7 votes ✓
- Elcaspar (L-MI) 11 votes ✓
Liberal Slate: 10 votes 20.41%
- Ishan (LIB-PA) 10 votes ✓
Federalist Slate: 10 votes 20.41%
- Brother Jonathan (F-VT) 8 votes ✓
- lwp2004 (F-CT)
- thr33 (F-NY) 2 votes
Others: 0 votes 0%
Last Vote Counted: Gorguf

LABOR WINS MAJORITY!

_________________________________________________________________________________

Experimental Vote Predictor (Marquee Races Only)

The Experimental Vote Predictor is an (obviously experimental) version of the NYT Needle - swinging current results based on the composition of the electorate in terms of party registration. The EVP uses a simple algorithm - swing the current results to better represent the entire electorate, while also accounting for current turnout (the more votes in, the less swing). That said, below are the current predictions the EVP is making for the Southern elections.

updated 3:57 PM PST

Presidential Election, Final Round
Vice President MB (L-Northern Marianas) / Senator TedBessell (L-CA): 102 votes 56.26%
Lincoln Councillor Ninja (DA-NJ) / Senator LouisvilleThunder (F-KY): 79 votes 43.74%

House Election
Labor-Peace Slate: 105 votes 57%
Federalist Slate: 58 votes 31.17%
Democratic Alliance Slate: 13 votes 7%
Liberal Slate: 7 votes 3.88%
Other: 2 votes 0.94%

Southern Senate Election
Senator LouisvilleThunder (Federalist-Kentucky): 35 votes 50.36% ✓
Representative Razze (Peace-Florida): 31 votes 44.88%
Other: 4 votes 4.76%

Southern Gubernatorial Election
Governor TimTurner (Labor-Texas): 36 votes 52.02%
Representative Spark498 (Federalist-Florida): 30 votes 43.22%
Other: 3 votes 4.76%

Lincoln Senate Election: Final Round
Senator tack50 (Labor-Maine): 46 votes 65.29%
Representative Joseph Cao (Federalist-Illinois): 24 votes 34.71%

Senator tack50 (Labor-Maine): 43 votes 61.03%
Fmr. Representative Poirot (Liberal-New York): 27 votes 38.97%

Posting the final update here for posterity.

The OP will now be used to cover the Southern Gubernatorial runoff.

[OBD]

Quota = 17

Adam Griffin 20 votes [ELECTED, 3 vote surplus]
Rep. Joseph Cao 15 votes [ELECTED with Spark reallocation]
SevenEleven 17 votes [ELECTED]
FalterinArc 16 votes [ELECTED with AG surplus]
Razze 16 votes (ELECTED with Falterin surplus)
TexasGurl 17 votes [ELECTED]
Jessica 16 votes [ELECTED by default]
WestMidlander 15 votes [ELECTED with Battista Minola reallocation)
Poirot 15 votes [according to Wulfric, APPARENT WINNER]
beeman 15 votes (apparent loser)
Spark 2 votes (reallocate to Cao)
Battista Minola 1 vote (reallocate to WM)
Invalid: 5

Update on the House. At this point, as the surpluses are beginning to get nightmarish, I'm giving up and handing it over to Peebs. However, above is the current situation - CIP is confident calling seats for all the bolded candidates, and the last seat will go to either Beeman or Poirot depending on how Razze's 0.88 vote surplus and Cao's 0.08 vote surplus shake out. Bonne chance! to them.

EDIT: According to Wulfric's math, Poirot is the apparent winner. Congrats!

[OBD]

Southern Gubernatorial Election (17/62) 27% reporting
Governor TimTurner (Labor-Texas): 10 votes 58.82%
Representative Spark498 (Federalist-Florida): 7 votes 41.18%
Other: 0 votes NaN%
Last Vote Counted: thumb
Invalid: Wulfric (not in region)

Current Prediction: 50% Chance of Spark Win

_________________________________________________________________________________

Experimental Vote Predictor

The Experimental Vote Predictor is an (obviously experimental) version of the NYT Needle - swinging current results based on the composition of the electorate in terms of party registration. The EVP uses a simple algorithm - swing the current results to better represent the entire electorate, while also accounting for current turnout (the more votes in, the less swing). That said, below are the current predictions the EVP is making for the Southern runoff.

updated 10/30 9:44 AM PST

Southern Gubernatorial Election
Governor TimTurner (Labor-Texas): 33 votes 53.09%
Representative Spark498 (Federalist-Florida): 29 votes 46.91%
Other: 0 votes 0%

It's early morning on the first full day of voting, so we're giving everyone an update here! Governor TimTurner currently leads Spark 10-7 in the actual votes, and the EVP currently predicts that TimTurner will win 33-29 - accounting for the current pro-Labor bias in the electorate. However, a disclaimer - the EVP has shown to be incredibly voliate following defections, so take its predictions with a grain of salt for now.

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

You and Wulfric are doing God's work. Keep it up!

[OBD]

Southern Gubernatorial Election (26/62) 42% reporting
Governor TimTurner (Labor-Texas): 16 votes 61.54%
Representative Spark498 (Federalist-Florida): 10 votes 38.46%
Other: 0 votes NaN%
Last Vote Counted: NeederNodder
Invalid: Wulfric (not in region)

Current Prediction: 55% Chance of TimTurner Win

_________________________________________________________________________________

Experimental Vote Predictor

The Experimental Vote Predictor is an (obviously experimental) version of the NYT Needle - swinging current results based on the composition of the electorate in terms of party registration. The EVP uses a simple algorithm - swing the current results to better represent the entire electorate, while also accounting for current turnout (the more votes in, the less swing). That said, below are the current predictions the EVP is making for the Southern runoff.

updated 10/31 12:02 PM PST

Southern Gubernatorial Election
Governor TimTurner (Labor-Texas): 34 votes 54.05%
Representative Spark498 (Federalist-Florida): 28 votes 45.95%
Other: 0 votes 0%

Not much has happened since the last update, but I'm posting this here for posterity (and to track the accuracy of the EVP). As more Laborites have voted, Tim's lead has continued to increase, and accordingly, the EVP now forecasts a 6-vote win for the Governor. There's plenty of time left, though.

[OBD]

Southern Gubernatorial Election (50/62) 81% reporting
Governor TimTurner (Labor-Texas): 25 votes 50%
Representative Spark498 (Federalist-Florida): 25 votes 50%
Other: 0 votes NaN%
Last Vote Counted: ltomlinson
Invalid: Wulfric (not in region)

Current Prediction: Flip a Coin

_________________________________________________________________________________

Experimental Vote Predictor

The Experimental Vote Predictor is an (obviously experimental) version of the NYT Needle - swinging current results based on the composition of the electorate in terms of party registration. The EVP uses a simple algorithm - swing the current results to better represent the entire electorate, while also accounting for current turnout (the more votes in, the less swing). That said, below are the current predictions the EVP is making for the Southern runoff.

updated 11/1 9:35 AM PST

Southern Gubernatorial Election
Governor TimTurner (Labor-Texas): 31 votes 50.02%
Representative Spark498 (Federalist-Florida): 31 votes 49.98%
Other: 0 votes 0%

It's the last day of voting, and the race is all tied up after a massive pro-Spark dump in the late hours of Halloween night. Rep. Spark is now tied with Gov. TimTurner at 25 votes with 81% of the vote in, and the EVP believes that this race is a nail-biter, now projecting a tie (with TimTurner technically winning by a measly 0.04%). This race will go down to the wire, but of note - Tim supporters should hope he wins outright, as there's a 3-2 majority in the Council in favor of Spark.

[OBD]

Southern Gubernatorial Election 100% reporting
Governor TimTurner (Labor-Texas): 31 votes 51.67% ✓
Representative Spark498 (Federalist-Florida): 29 votes 48.33%
Other: 0 votes NaN%
Last Vote Counted: weatherboy
Invalid: Wulfric (not in region)

Assuming that the election ended at 8 PM PST (bc of the time shift), Tim has won.

Upon consultation with legal experts and the ballot, CIP can conclude that the legal period for ballot casting ended 26 minutes ago - or, at 11PM EST due to the time shift. As a result, Governor TimTurner has won re-election!