Rate Lackawanna County, PA

[perpetual_cynic]

How large of a Dem margin will Biden get in Lackawanna County, Pennsylvania (home to Scranton)?

[Roll Roons]

Biden +20. For comparison, it was Obama +27, Hillary +3, McGinty +13 (with the libertarian getting 7), Wolf +30 and Casey +23. Interestingly, McGinty got a wider margin here than she did in Delaware or Montgomery (Toomey actually won both Bucks and Chester).

[WD]

Safe D. Biden wins by 15-20 points

[perpetual_cynic]

Biden +20. For comparison, it was Obama +27, Hillary +3, McGinty +13 (with the libertarian getting 7), Wolf +30 and Casey +23. Interestingly, McGinty got a wider margin here than she did in Delaware or Montgomery (Toomey actually won both Bucks and Chester).

Clinton's margin was +3%. It will go Dem, no doubt. However, that seems at the high interval of the possible outcome. I would say more like Dem +8%.

[Roll Roons]

Speaking of this county, how accurate does everyone think this is?
Michael: Obama-Trump
Dwight: Johnson-Trump
Jim: Romney-Hillary
Pam: Obama-Hillary
Andy: Romney-McMullin 
Ryan: Romney-Johnson
Angela: Romney-Trump
Stanley: Obama-Doesn't vote
Phyllis: Obama-Hillary
Oscar: Obama-Hillary
Meredith: Didn’t vote-Trump
Kelly: Obama-Trump
Kevin: Doesn’t vote
Toby: Obama-Hillary
Darryl: Obama-Hillary
Creed: Write-in both times

[Badger]

Speaking of this county, how accurate does everyone think this is?
Michael: Obama-Trump
Dwight: Johnson-Trump
Jim: Romney-Hillary
Pam: Obama-Hillary
Andy: Romney-McMullin 
Ryan: Romney-Johnson
Angela: Romney-Trump
Stanley: Obama-Doesn't vote
Phyllis: Obama-Hillary
Oscar: Obama-Hillary
Meredith: Didn’t vote-Trump
Kelly: Obama-Trump
Kevin: Doesn’t vote
Toby: Obama-Hillary
Darryl: Obama-Hillary
Creed: Write-in both times

Jim did not vote for Romney. I doubt Kelly voted for Trump, but Creed may have.

[Roll Roons]

Speaking of this county, how accurate does everyone think this is?
Michael: Obama-Trump
Dwight: Johnson-Trump
Jim: Romney-Hillary
Pam: Obama-Hillary
Andy: Romney-McMullin 
Ryan: Romney-Johnson
Angela: Romney-Trump
Stanley: Obama-Doesn't vote
Phyllis: Obama-Hillary
Oscar: Obama-Hillary
Meredith: Didn’t vote-Trump
Kelly: Obama-Trump
Kevin: Doesn’t vote
Toby: Obama-Hillary
Darryl: Obama-Hillary
Creed: Write-in both times

Jim did not vote for Romney. I doubt Kelly voted for Trump, but Creed may have.

I figured Kelly voted for Trump because she thought Ivanka and Jared were glamorous. Creed just operates on a different plane of existence, so he wrote in some super-obscure candidate who was "running" on some sort of very niche, single-issue platform.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Speaking of this county, how accurate does everyone think this is?
Michael: Obama-Trump
Dwight: Johnson-Trump
Jim: Romney-Hillary
Pam: Obama-Hillary
Andy: Romney-McMullin 
Ryan: Romney-Johnson
Angela: Romney-Trump
Stanley: Obama-Doesn't vote
Phyllis: Obama-Hillary
Oscar: Obama-Hillary
Meredith: Didn’t vote-Trump
Kelly: Obama-Trump
Kevin: Doesn’t vote
Toby: Obama-Hillary
Darryl: Obama-Hillary
Creed: Write-in both times

Michael: Obama-Hillary
Dwight: Romney-Trump
Jim: Obama-Hillary
Pam: Obama-Hillary
Andy: Romney-McMullin 
Ryan: Romney-Johnson
Angela: Romney-Trump
Stanley: Obama-Hillary
Phyllis: Obama-Trump
Oscar: Obama-Hillary
Meredith: Didn’t vote-Trump
Kelly: Obama-Hillary
Kevin: Obama-Trump
Toby: Obama-Hillary
Darryl: Obama-Hillary
Creed: Write-in Vermin Supreme both times

[Devils30]

Biden will get a hometown boost here beyond what he may get in other WWC counties.

[Continential]

Biden +20. For comparison, it was Obama +27, Hillary +3, McGinty +13 (with the libertarian getting 7), Wolf +30 and Casey +23. Interestingly, McGinty got a wider margin here than she did in Delaware or Montgomery (Toomey actually won both Bucks and Chester).

McGinty appealled to more #WWC workers then Clinton.

[here2view]

Safe D. Biden wins by 15-20 points

[Non Swing Voter]

you guys really think this county will trend 12-17 points just because Biden's from there?  Look what happened to Gore in his home state, Romney in MA, Trump in NY, Clinton in Arkansas, etc.  Biden's a better fit than most Democrats but a swing like that seems unrealistic.  I would be curious if he gets a small bump in the counties throughout the region though.

[zoz]

Can I ever open anything about Lackawanna County/NEPA without seeing a damn Office reference

[cvparty]

you guys really think this county will trend 12-17 points just because Biden's from there?  Look what happened to Gore in his home state, Romney in MA, Trump in NY, Clinton in Arkansas, etc.  Biden's a better fit than most Democrats but a swing like that seems unrealistic.  I would be curious if he gets a small bump in the counties throughout the region though.

no one said that, it’s not unreasonable to predict a double-digit swing if biden approaches double digits in the NPV and appeals better to WWC voters by virtue of not being hillary (which is demonstrated in all polls and all subsequent PA elections from 2016). any “home effect” is just the cherry on top

[S019]

Biden by anywhere from mid single digits to low double digits seems plausible, I'll say Biden+10 though, this is one of few WWC trending R places where I can see Biden improving substantially, though I can't say the same for the rest of NEPA, including neighboring Luzerne.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Speaking of this county, how accurate does everyone think this is?
Michael: Obama-Trump
Dwight: Johnson-Trump
Jim: Romney-Hillary
Pam: Obama-Hillary
Andy: Romney-McMullin  
Ryan: Romney-Johnson
Angela: Romney-Trump
Stanley: Obama-Doesn't vote
Phyllis: Obama-Hillary
Oscar: Obama-Hillary
Meredith: Didn’t vote-Trump
Kelly: Obama-Trump
Kevin: Doesn’t vote
Toby: Obama-Hillary
Darryl: Obama-Hillary
Creed: Write-in both times

I mostly agree.  I think Jim was probably Obama-Hillary, Ryan was probably didn't vote/didn't vote, and Kelly was probably Obama/didn't vote.  

Edit:  I also feel like Michael probably didn't vote either time.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Can I ever open anything about Lackawanna County/NEPA without seeing a damn Office reference

No.

[voice_of_resistance]

latest PA poll by region had Biden +13 in NEPA. That's easily winning Lackawanna by 18-20 and barely winning Luzerne.

[Hnv1]

Speaking of this county, how accurate does everyone think this is?
Michael: Obama-Trump
Dwight: Johnson-Trump
Jim: Romney-Hillary
Pam: Obama-Hillary
Andy: Romney-McMullin 
Ryan: Romney-Johnson
Angela: Romney-Trump
Stanley: Obama-Doesn't vote
Phyllis: Obama-Hillary
Oscar: Obama-Hillary
Meredith: Didn’t vote-Trump
Kelly: Obama-Trump
Kevin: Doesn’t vote
Toby: Obama-Hillary
Darryl: Obama-Hillary
Creed: Write-in both times

Michael was Obama-Trump after he was sacked in Colorado for making racist remarks about Mexicans and getting into a tantrum about "PCP America" as he called it
Dwight - Romney-Trump, he's a hardcore republican but also admires financial schemes and success
Jim - Obama-Hillary (though the later was mainly due to the coercion of Pam)
Pam - Obama-Hillary
Ryan - Johnson-Trump. Although not a racist, he was enthralled by Trump being a billionaire
Angela - Romney-McMullin. she found Trump's grab them by the pussy remarks to be offensive
Stanley - stopped caring after 2008. doesn't vote
Phyllis - classic Obama-Trump rust belt voter
Oscar - Obama-Hillary, he was even an organizer for the Hillary campaign on the ground
Meredith - didn't vote-Trump-dead from excessive drinking by 2020
Kelly - Obama-Trump, because he's a celebrity
Kevin - doesn't vote
Toby - Obama-Hillary
Darryl - Obama-didn't vote, black rust belt voters who didn't turn up in 2016
Creed - In jail so probably can't vote.
Andy - Obama (white guilt) - Hillary
Gabe - Obama-write in Bernie
Jan - Romney-Hillary

[Ferguson97]

Speaking of this county, how accurate does everyone think this is?
Michael: Obama-Trump
Dwight: Johnson-Trump
Jim: Romney-Hillary
Pam: Obama-Hillary
Andy: Romney-McMullin 
Ryan: Romney-Johnson
Angela: Romney-Trump
Stanley: Obama-Doesn't vote
Phyllis: Obama-Hillary
Oscar: Obama-Hillary
Meredith: Didn’t vote-Trump
Kelly: Obama-Trump
Kevin: Doesn’t vote
Toby: Obama-Hillary
Darryl: Obama-Hillary
Creed: Write-in both times

Michael was Obama-Trump after he was sacked in Colorado for making racist remarks about Mexicans and getting into a tantrum about "PCP America" as he called it
Dwight - Romney-Trump, he's a hardcore republican but also admires financial schemes and success
Jim - Obama-Hillary (though the later was mainly due to the coercion of Pam)
Pam - Obama-Hillary
Ryan - Johnson-Trump. Although not a racist, he was enthralled by Trump being a billionaire
Angela - Romney-McMullin. she found Trump's grab them by the pussy remarks to be offensive
Stanley - stopped caring after 2008. doesn't vote
Phyllis - classic Obama-Trump rust belt voter
Oscar - Obama-Hillary, he was even an organizer for the Hillary campaign on the ground
Meredith - didn't vote-Trump-dead from excessive drinking by 2020
Kelly - Obama-Trump, because he's a celebrity
Kevin - doesn't vote
Toby - Obama-Hillary
Darryl - Obama-didn't vote, black rust belt voters who didn't turn up in 2016
Creed - In jail so probably can't vote.
Andy - Obama (white guilt) - Hillary
Gabe - Obama-write in Bernie
Jan - Romney-Hillary

Michael: Never figures out where he’s supposed to go to vote.
Dwight: Trump voter. He’s a huge fascist. Don’t know where people are getting this idea he’s a libertarian.
Jim: Usually doesn’t vote but Pam made him. Moderate Democrat. Votes Biden.
Pam: Moderate Democrat. Votes Biden.
Ryan: Writes in Edward Snowden.
Angela: Trump. Likes his immigration and abortion policies.
Stanley: Lifelong Democrat. Votes Biden.
Phyllis: Swing voter. Obama-Trump-Biden voter.
Oscar: Lifelong Democrat. Obama-Hillary-Biden.
Meredith: Obama-Trump voter. Voting Trump again because she wants the schools to open so she doesn’t have to watch her kid.
Kelly: Lifelong Democrat. Hillary stan.
Kevin: Not registered.
Toby: Democrat.
Darryl: Democrat.
Andy: Registered Democrat but hasn’t voted for a Republican since 2004.
Gabe: Bernie Bro. Liked Yang.
Jan: Independent. Definitely voted Hillary.

Not sure why so many people think Kelly would vote Trump lmao she loves celebrities but he’s a huge racist and she’s obviously a liberal

[Spark]

Biden +10

[Roll Roons]

A couple I forgot: Packer 100% voted for Trump, and David Wallace was Romney-Clinton.

[😥]

Biden +21

[politicallefty]

I think he can get a 20% margin, but probably not much more. I'd also be very surprised if Biden managed to win next-door Luzerne. That'd be a catastrophe for Trump. He's not going to get Obama numbers, but he can easily make that up in the Philly suburbs.

[BaldEagle1991]

Speaking of this county, how accurate does everyone think this is?
Michael: Obama-Trump
Dwight: Johnson-Trump
Jim: Romney-Hillary
Pam: Obama-Hillary
Andy: Romney-McMullin 
Ryan: Romney-Johnson
Angela: Romney-Trump
Stanley: Obama-Doesn't vote
Phyllis: Obama-Hillary
Oscar: Obama-Hillary
Meredith: Didn’t vote-Trump
Kelly: Obama-Trump
Kevin: Doesn’t vote
Toby: Obama-Hillary
Darryl: Obama-Hillary
Creed: Write-in both times

Michael: Obama-Hillary
Dwight: Romney-Trump
Jim: Obama-Hillary
Pam: Obama-Hillary
Andy: Romney-McMullin 
Ryan: Romney-Johnson
Angela: Romney-Trump
Stanley: Obama-Hillary
Phyllis: Obama-Trump
Oscar: Obama-Hillary
Meredith: Didn’t vote-Trump
Kelly: Obama-Hillary
Kevin: Obama-Trump
Toby: Obama-Hillary
Darryl: Obama-Hillary
Creed: Write-in Vermin Supreme both times

This is right only I think Meredith would've voted Obama in '12.

Creed is the kind of guy that would vote third party all the time.