Elissa Slotkin: The Polls are Undercounting Trump Support Again

[Storr]

ThE pOlLs WeRe AcCuRaTe

Hold up, why is Trump +0.7? The final vote was Trump 46.1% Clinton 48.2%.

[Bojack Horseman]

This article is such crap. Slotkin really isn’t in that much danger. None of her opponents have raised more than $5,000 and she’s sitting on a war chest of $13 million. The NRCC triaged both her and Stevens’ districts (Stevens’ specifically when James decided to run for Senate) a while ago. While yard signs don’t mean much, I grew up near Holly and in my visit last weekend to my formerly conservative hometown, almost every single sign I saw was for her and other Democrats running for re-election in Oakland County.

[WD]

ThE pOlLs WeRe AcCuRaTe

Nice Cherry-picking

[Roll Roons]

ThE pOlLs WeRe AcCuRaTe

Hold up, why is Trump +0.7? The final vote was Trump 46.1% Clinton 48.2%.

This is just Wisconsin.

[ProgressiveModerate]

ThE pOlLs WeRe AcCuRaTe

Hold up, why is Trump +0.7? The final vote was Trump 46.1% Clinton 48.2%.

It's reasonable to think that out of the 20 states or so that have a decent amount of polling, at least 1 or 2 will be outside the MOE. MI and PA polls were pretty close, but the narrative that "Trump can't win" and resistance of accepting a changing EC map gave the illusion that those states were safer to Clinton than they really were, whereas states like VA and CO were still competative
This is just Wisconsin.

[Badger]

ThE pOlLs WeRe AcCuRaTe

LoOk At ThE pOsT fOuR aBoVe YoUrS

[Ogre Mage]

3) Democrats need to stop being traumatized by what happened in 2016

I must admit this is something I have struggled terribly with.

[wbrocks67]

Again, the point that people don't seem to understand about 2016 was the *UNDECIDEDS*

Look at that RCP average for Wisconsin. The average for the final stretch of the campaign in Wisconsin still had *13% undecided*

No one is safe when there is that many undecided voters leading up to the election. The margins actually lined up perfectly for HRC's % total. However, many undecided voters clearly voted for Trump, which we knew.

[Hammy]

Again, the point that people don't seem to understand about 2016 was the *UNDECIDEDS*

Look at that RCP average for Wisconsin. The average for the final stretch of the campaign in Wisconsin still had *13% undecided*

No one is safe when there is that many undecided voters leading up to the election. The margins actually lined up perfectly for HRC's % total. However, many undecided voters clearly voted for Trump, which we knew.

This is why I'm always skeptical if you have a lot of polls with the the leader below 46-48 range, or even trusting isolated ones that do.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

3) Democrats need to stop being traumatized by what happened in 2016

[morgieb]

ThE pOlLs WeRe AcCuRaTe

I think there's enough evidence to say Wisconsin was pretty badly off for some reason, but the errors elsewhere could be explained by undecideds going Trump. And in Wisconsin Marquette fixed their errors after 2016 anyway.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

What these "muh 2016 polls!" concern trolls keep forgetting to mention is that the polling this cycle shows a significant drop in undecided voters from 2016, and the fact that Biden is polling much better than Clinton.

At this time in 2016...

In Pennsylvania, Clinton averaged 40% on RCP with 22% of voters either undecided or choosing third party. Currently, Biden is at 48.5% with 9.5% undecided.

In Wisconsin, Clinton averaged 42% with 21.5% undecided. Biden is currently at 48.5% with 9.5% undecided. Same as Pennsylvania.

In Michigan, Clinton averaged 39.5% with 24% undecided. Biden is at 48% with 11.5% undecided.

RCP also shows that Clinton never reached the level of support Biden currently holds in any of the three states.

To say this election is like 2016 all over again is foolish. I strongly suspect this is a GoTV and fundraising effort on Slotkin's part. She is, after all, a Democrat representing a district Trump won. She can't afford her supporters to get complacent.