TN-R Primary - Tarrance Group/Bill Hagerty: Hagerty +17%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

A Hagerty internal poll of 651 likely primary voters from June 28-30, 2020 with a margin of error of 4%.

https://www.wjhl.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/98/2020/07/Hagerty-07.01-Memo.pdf

Hagerty 46%
Sethi 29%
Flinn 5%
One of the other candidates 2%
Undecided 18%

[S019]

Hagerty is heavily favored in this primary, and this is an internal, so his numbers are probably inflated, but he's probably winning the primary by double digits.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

My sense has always been that Hagerty is the favorite, though I maybe have felt a slight sense of it getting closer lately.  I probably know more enthusiastic Sethi voters than enthusiastic Hagerty ones, but Hagerty's Trump endorsement will probably be enough.

For Sethi to win, he needs to do what Bill Lee did against Diane Black in the 2018 gubernatorial primary, but that's going to be harder because there aren't two other candidates to take 30-40% of the vote and because Hagerty hasn't gone quite as negative in the primary as Black did.

I'm voting for Sethi.