2012: Hillary Clinton vs. Mitt Romney

[Chips]

I think it kinda depends:

If she ran as her 2016 self and had 2016 levels of unpopularity:

Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan: 308 electoral votes and 51% of the popular vote
Hillary Clinton/Running Mate: 230 electoral votes and 47% of the popular vote

If she was still relatively popular as Secretary of State:

Hillary Clinton/Running Mate: 341 electoral votes and 52% of the popular vote
Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan: 197 electoral votes and 46% of the popular vote

[Sir Mohamed]

The context matters. Is she the sitting prez? Obviously would depend on her performance in office since January 2009. Probably she'd be favored for reelection, winning by slightly less than Obama did. Obama not running for reelection is unrealistic. If McCain was elected prez in 2008 and declined to run, a Democrat would be heavily favored for 2012, especially against a medicore candidate like Romney.

[Agonized-Statism]

President Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Vice President Evan Bayh (D-IN) ✓
Fmr. Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) / Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI)

[NewYorkExpress]

I actually think, in a scenario where Obama isn't running for reelection in 2012 for whatever reason, Biden beats Hillary to win the nomination.

[Alben Barkley]

Mitt Romney was not gonna win Iowa in 2012.

A-S's map looks fairly realistic if Hillary won in 2008. Things might have played out quite a bit differently in that case, though, namely in that the Democrats would not have bled WWC and rural voters so quickly. Maybe she even still holds on to Arkansas?