AK-SEN 2022: A Rank Choice

[Heebie Jeebie]

Mark Begich should give it another go.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Mark Begich should give it another go.

He's a two-time general election loser. His brother in the state legislature represents that dynasty now.

A former official with a better opportunity would be ex-Gov. Bill Walker, whose coalition-building experience as an independent could translate well into a jungle primary/RCV scenario.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Mark Begich should give it another go.

He's a two-time general election loser. His brother in the state legislature represents that dynasty now.

A former official with a better opportunity would be ex-Gov. Bill Walker, whose coalition-building experience as an independent could translate well into a jungle primary/RCV scenario.

But Bill Walker dropped out.
(Memes aside, [yes I couldn't help myself] I agree)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Mark Begich should give it another go.

He's a two-time general election loser. His brother in the state legislature represents that dynasty now.

A former official with a better opportunity would be ex-Gov. Bill Walker, whose coalition-building experience as an independent could translate well into a jungle primary/RCV scenario.

But Bill Walker already dropped out.
(Memes aside, [yes I couldn't help myself] I agree)

So the meme goes, but his campaign contributions account remains open and he moved $47k to it in early 2019.

I see you are a man of culture.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Mark Begich should give it another go.

He's a two-time general election loser. His brother in the state legislature represents that dynasty now.

A former official with a better opportunity would be ex-Gov. Bill Walker, whose coalition-building experience as an independent could translate well into a jungle primary/RCV scenario.

Sure, but Begich is the only Alaska Democrat to have actually won a statewide race who's also still young enough to be reasonable candidate next year.  Plus, those losses...he lost by just 2% in 2014 (an awful year for Democrats!) and he pushed out Walker in 2018.  Alaska is a tough state for Democrats, but Begich has shown real resiliency. 

[YE]

I hope Bill Walker runs and drops out again.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

AL. GROSS. REVENGE. TOUR.

[brucejoel99]

I'll believe a non-incumbent Trump taking the time & energy to leave Mar-a-Lago & actually go all the way to Alaska when I see it.

[JMT]

I wonder if Trump has a candidate in mind to challenge Murkowski, though. There doesn’t seem to be many viable options. Maybe Sarah Palin runs? She previously expressed interest. Joe Miller? Or maybe they just try to get a candidate that we haven’t heard of yet that can self fund?

[I’m not Stu]

I wonder if Trump has a candidate in mind to challenge Murkowski, though. There doesn’t seem to be many viable options. Maybe Sarah Palin runs? She previously expressed interest. Joe Miller? Or maybe they just try to get a candidate that we haven’t heard of yet that can self fund?

It will be Joe Miller.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hope she loses, she didn't give us 1 vote on Stimulus and she voted for ACB and neither did Romney or Collins. Collins really fooled her constituents, she prouded herself as a Maverick and voted against ACB and she is back to Obstructing. Doesn't she knows that Olympia Snowe had to retire, polls were showing she was gonna lose in 2012, Collins will lose and so will Ernst in 2026

[MT Treasurer]

Trump has vowed to campaign against Murkowski in 2022.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/06/trump-lisa-murkowski-2022-474028

[Pollster]

Nugget from that politico piece:

Trump’s political team has commissioned polling on the Alaska senator, further evidence of its interest in unseating her. The survey, which was conducted Jan. 30-Feb 1, before Murkowski voted to convict the former president, found Murkowski with a 43 percent favorable rating in Alaska, short of Trump’s 52 percent figure. The survey was conducted by McLaughlin and Associates, a firm that worked on Trump’s 2016 and 2020 campaigns. It was paid for by Save America, Trump’s leadership political action committee.

[MT Treasurer]

Nugget from that politico piece:

Trump’s political team has commissioned polling on the Alaska senator, further evidence of its interest in unseating her. The survey, which was conducted Jan. 30-Feb 1, before Murkowski voted to convict the former president, found Murkowski with a 43 percent favorable rating in Alaska, short of Trump’s 52 percent figure. The survey was conducted by McLaughlin and Associates, a firm that worked on Trump’s 2016 and 2020 campaigns. It was paid for by Save America, Trump’s leadership political action committee.

I don’t know any details about this survey and reports like these should always be taken with a grain of salt, but this is certainly an interesting... 'coincidence' when you keep in mind what % of the vote Biden received in AK.

RCV will only get you so far if your entire support within your own party has collapsed.

[I’m not Stu]

Who might be the frontrunner of potential primary challengers?

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Who might be the frontrunner of potential primary challengers?

Sarah Palin probably LMAO

[I’m not Stu]

Who might be the frontrunner of potential primary challengers?

Sarah Palin probably LMAO

I don't know if Sarah Palin wants to run. She resigned from the governorship.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Nugget from that politico piece:

Trump’s political team has commissioned polling on the Alaska senator, further evidence of its interest in unseating her. The survey, which was conducted Jan. 30-Feb 1, before Murkowski voted to convict the former president, found Murkowski with a 43 percent favorable rating in Alaska, short of Trump’s 52 percent figure. The survey was conducted by McLaughlin and Associates, a firm that worked on Trump’s 2016 and 2020 campaigns. It was paid for by Save America, Trump’s leadership political action committee.

> McLaughlin

[AGA]

I think she will still win. Enough moderates and independents will rank her first for her to not get eliminated. The Democrats will rank her above the mainstream Republican, and Republicans will rank her above the Democrat.

[Stuart98]

Murkowski wins if all of the following are true:
1. More people prefer her over a republican to the right of her. (Almost certainly true)
2. More people prefer her to whoever the democrats put up (Pretty likely to be true)
3. She doesn't have the fewest first place preferences of the top 3. (This is the unknown)

If both the democrat and the trumpist get more first place preferences than her then she's eliminated and some of IRV's behavior quirks are going to come up. Given the relatively moderate nature of Alaska politics, the democrat probably comes out on top if that happens?

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Who might be the frontrunner of potential primary challengers?

Sarah Palin probably LMAO

I don't know if Sarah Palin wants to run. She resigned from the governorship.

That was over 10 years ago when she was the most famous person in the state, potentially building to a run for President. She has been a nobody for the last few years, but is still high profile enough to challenge Murkowski. She even threatened to do so back in 2018.

[ElectionsGuy]

Honestly, I think this will be more interesting than people will make it out to be. The way a pro-Trump Republican vs Murkowski vs Democrat vs possible independent will shake out in a RCV scenario would be somewhat unpredictable.

[MT Treasurer]

I think she will still win. Enough moderates and independents will rank her first for her to not get eliminated. The Democrats will rank her above the mainstream Republican, and Republicans will rank her above the Democrat.

The big problem for her is that enough Republicans might not rank her at all. She’s by no means safe.

[AGA]

I think she will still win. Enough moderates and independents will rank her first for her to not get eliminated. The Democrats will rank her above the mainstream Republican, and Republicans will rank her above the Democrat.

The big problem for her is that enough Republicans might not rank her at all. She’s by no means safe.

True, we really have no idea how this new voting system will play out. Since most voters don't understand the strategic implications of IRV, it may be in the interest of the Democratic Party to encourage people to put Murkowski first and the Democrat second or not run a Democrat at all (unless they think they can actually win).

[MT Treasurer]

I think she will still win. Enough moderates and independents will rank her first for her to not get eliminated. The Democrats will rank her above the mainstream Republican, and Republicans will rank her above the Democrat.

The big problem for her is that enough Republicans might not rank her at all. She’s by no means safe.

True, we really have no idea how this new voting system will play out. Since most voters don't understand the strategic implications of IRV, it may be in the interest of the Democratic Party to encourage people to put Murkowski first and the Democrat second or not run a Democrat at all (unless they think they can actually win).

I’d agree, although this has the unintended side effect of alienating even more Republican/Trump voters who might have otherwise considered ranking her. It depends on how much goodwill she still has with a very small segment of the R base — it could be enough if Democrats unite behind her (as you said), no Republican consolidates the anti-Murkowski vote, and moderate Republicans exist in large enough numbers for her to forge a coalition that’s not reliant on conservative support. A lot of this discourse here just reminds me of the "Collins faces an uphill battle because of RCV", though.