AK-SEN 2022: A Rank Choice

[ProgressiveModerate]

538 has the current probabilities at 53% for Tshibaka and 47% for Murkowski.  That's a toss-up by any reasonable definition.

I think that’s just that one screwy poll, which doesn’t align at all with what we saw in the primary. The other polls have had Murkowski up much more comfortably. I don’t think Murkowski is in any real danger.

Plus since RCV is so new, I think models like 538 struggle with how to deal with it

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Four is a weird number for a runoff, I really don’t know why they don’t just to a normal RCV

What do you mean by "normal RCV"?  You mean like in Maine, where each party nominates a candidate? This would basically defeat the purpose of the reform, since Murkowski would certainly lose a Republican primary.

[scared of myself]

How exactly will Pat Chesbro do? She's the only Dem left.https://twitter.com/AlaskaDemocrats/status/1582425857456734208?cxt=HHwWgIDQ0d378...

[Calthrina950]

How exactly will Pat Chesbro do? She's the only Dem left.

She probably won't get much more than the low teens, if that.

[2016]

What Murkowski did by publicly saying she is voting for Peltola probably has sealed her Defeat.

It kind of reminds me when Heitkamp in 2018 publicly said she would vote against Kavanaugh. I expect Tshibaka to win the 1st Round of Voting with a higher % she did in the Primary, maybe even 45 % or above.

Also, Mitch McConnell mending into the Alaska Elections with his SuperPac might end up hurting Murkowski.

[bagelman]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1569680380411711488?s=21&t=4FYK-B1QpUs...

Kelley’s fourth-place finish came as a surprise; he is a retired union mechanic...

Union strong for a "hard right turn" to fight and destroy those pesky unions. 🤡🌎

[Calthrina950]

This is why the Peltola endorsement doesn't really hurt Murkowski:
https://twitter.com/IvanMoore1/status/1584691466013900800

I've said this myself, that Peltola and Murkowski share the same coalition of voters, and will be jointly reelected by that coalition.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Would both Peltola and Murskowski winning in Alaska create a new narrative around some sort of "moderate" Alaska coalition that becomes dominant?

Tbh, we already see this in the state House a bit where Democrats, Independents, and moderate Republicans joined together to become the majority caucus. It'll be interesting to see if that majority holds.

[Sir Mohamed]

Peltola and Murkowski endorse each other:

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1584872683623391234

[Independents for George Santos]

I'm way late to this party but is Wikipedia correct when it says Tshibaka is pronounced like Chewbacca? I haven't been able to stop thinking about this since I read it.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm way late to this party but is Wikipedia correct when it says Tshibaka is pronounced like Chewbacca? I haven't been able to stop thinking about this since I read it.

Basically yes except the “Ch” is an “Sh”

To me it sounds like Sussy Baka, which imo is quite fitting.

[doopy pants]

If this isn’t the most important endorsement ever idk what is.https://twitter.com/ChooseChesbro/status/1586121802719563776?cxt=HHwWgMDQ2YfYhIM...

[doopy pants]

https://twitter.com/newsmax/status/1585254926296682496

[Senator Incitatus]

Murkowski also looks like a turtle.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Who makes the top four?

My guess is Tshhibaka, Murkowski, and Chesbro at least. No idea who gets the fourth spot.

I'm going to make a possibly insane prediction, and say Murkowski doesn't even make the top four.

Well, the first half of your sentence was correct.

[Virginiá]

re: RCV

It was a close vote in 2020, so this result is pretty believable. Still a long time to go though and opinions can change.

https://twitter.com/IvanMoore1/status/1618437311188078593

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Only in ME is ranked choice voting matters Peltola, Murkowski and Sullivan are pretty much set only Colloma faces a tough Reelection in 26 and it's ranked choice

[Epaminondas]

re: RCV

It was a close vote in 2020, so this result is pretty believable. Still a long time to go though and opinions can change.

Gosh they aren't smart: assuming these 53% are Republicans, half of them would have been disgusted by their current Rep without RCV since each base of Palin and Begich loathed the other.
So with RCV, 50% of Alaskans are happy, without it, only 30% would have been. Seems pretty clear what the better alternative is.

If only California could repeal and replace their awful Top-2 with proper RCV instead.

[Spectator]

I think based on Tshibaka’s recent social media usage, she’s very obviously ramping up for a run for House against Peltola in 2024. Needless to say, I imagine the DCCC is pleased with that prospect. First Joe Kent running again, now Tshibaka? What next, Majewski running again?