AK-SEN 2022: A Rank Choice

[DaleCooper]

I'm no Alaska expert, nor am I an expert on anything for that matter, but I have a suspicion that a decent Alaska Democrat would be favored against Palin even in a Biden midterm.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

https://twitter.com/npfandos/status/1320080527496564736?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctw...

She probably just saved herself in a primary, but we'll see, if she decides to crossover and vote with Democrats on stuff during a Biden presidency, then she'd be in primary danger again

Everyone thought she was safe in 2010 primary, then Miller came almost out of nowhere and primaried her.

[Canis]

Yeah I dont but that Murkowski is safe from a primary with the challenge with this vote but it helps her a lot this will definitely hurt her a lot among Dems and indys depending on how close AK house sen and Pres this year is I think looking for a strong candidate is a good idea,

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Yeah I dont but that Murkowski is safe from a primary with the challenge with this vote but it helps her a lot this will definitely hurt her a lot among Dems and indys depending on how close AK house sen and Pres this year is I think looking for a strong candidate is a good idea,

What this does do is squeeze her out potentially in a three way race between a Republican, a serious Democrat and her, in which case RCV doesn't help her if she is in third place.

[Canis]

Yeah I dont but that Murkowski is safe from a primary with the challenge with this vote but it helps her a lot this will definitely hurt her a lot among Dems and indys depending on how close AK house sen and Pres this year is I think looking for a strong candidate is a good idea,

What this does do is squeeze her out potentially in a three way race between a Republican, a serious Democrat and her, in which case RCV doesn't help her if she is in third place.

oh yeah thats a really good point I completely forgot about the whole top four rcv thing in AK yeah lol if I was murkowski I would definitely vote no on it lol I just checked to see whose endorsed it and the AK Gop has endorsed No on it and so has Mark Begich surprisingly. but his son (I think?) Tom Begich has endorsed the yes campaign the AK democratic party has not endorsed on the prop the AK Libertarians are supporting it tho.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Yeah I dont but that Murkowski is safe from a primary with the challenge with this vote but it helps her a lot this will definitely hurt her a lot among Dems and indys depending on how close AK house sen and Pres this year is I think looking for a strong candidate is a good idea,

What this does do is squeeze her out potentially in a three way race between a Republican, a serious Democrat and her, in which case RCV doesn't help her if she is in third place.

It's not certain it does either of these things. Rating that race will be rather difficult if RCV passes and there are multiple serious candidates (up to 4 candidates can make it through, so there could be two Democratic-leaning candidates or a "true" independent and a Democrat in addition to two Republicans).

[Ljube]

Murkowski will receive endorsements from the Republican Establishment and will cruise to re-election.

[Orser67]

Assuming the RCV ballot measure passes, I think she'd be virtually assured of making the top four, and then would be quite difficult to defeat in the run-off.

The circumstances of the 2022 election could really work out for her, since her the potential new election system eliminates her biggest challenge (winning a traditional Republican primary), and the likely national environment of a Biden mid-term should make it quite difficult for Democrats to pick up the state. I could certainly seeing her winning in the second or third round with Palin or some other Republican finishing as the runner-up.

[NOVA Green]

Murkowski is toast in 2020.

Alaskans like real political leaders and not flip-flopping politicians (Which Murkowski just did).

Only Two Senators voted against the extraordinary powers afforded to President Johnson as part of the "Gulf of Tonkin" Resolution.

Wayne Morse (D-OR) and Ernest Gruening (D-AK)

https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/congress-passes-gulf-of-tonkin-resolution

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernest_Gruening

Murkowski has shown her true colors, and Trumpism will likely be even less popular in Alaska in 2022 than in 2020, and she will be fully exposed as yet another sycophant for "Team Trump" and so long as DEMs run a solid contender, she will flame out.

Alaskans don't like politicians, sell-outs, and flip-floppers... they vote for political leaders with integrity, sadly and unfortunately a quality in which Murkowski appears to be lacking these days.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AK is leaning red

[Pollster]

Can't see this article behind a paywall, but for anybody who can, I assume that this has some good info on the early shape of the race:

Is Lisa Murkowski the Susan Collins of 2022?

[Coldstream]

Murkowski is toast in 2020.

Alaskans like real political leaders and not flip-flopping politicians (Which Murkowski just did).

Only Two Senators voted against the extraordinary powers afforded to President Johnson as part of the "Gulf of Tonkin" Resolution.

Wayne Morse (D-OR) and Ernest Gruening (D-AK)

https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/congress-passes-gulf-of-tonkin-resolution

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernest_Gruening

Murkowski has shown her true colors, and Trumpism will likely be even less popular in Alaska in 2022 than in 2020, and she will be fully exposed as yet another sycophant for "Team Trump" and so long as DEMs run a solid contender, she will flame out.

Alaskans don't like politicians, sell-outs, and flip-floppers... they vote for political leaders with integrity, sadly and unfortunately a quality in which Murkowski appears to be lacking these days.

I’m confused about your point re: Gruening. He lost re-election to Mike Gravel in ‘68. Are you suggesting that’s because he was seen as disloyal to Johnson or something?

[Gracile]

Murkowski voted to convict President Trump today, making her the only Republican Senator running for reelection next year to do so.

[Astatine]

Murkowski voted to convict President Trump today, making her the only Republican Senator running for reelection next year to do so.

With RCV that could help her to get enough second preferences by Democrats.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Murkowski voted to convict President Trump today, making her the only Republican Senator running for reelection next year to do so.

With RCV that could help her to get enough second preferences by Democrats.

I hope she holds on honestly; a Democrat win in AK is unlikely in 2022 and 99% of Republicans will be worse.

[PAK Man]

Random fact; has anybody noticed Murkowski has never won an election with a majority? She's always won with a plurality.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Murkowski is gonna win, there is no question about it Safe R

[brucejoel99]

Random fact; has anybody noticed Murkowski has never won an election with a majority? She's always won with a plurality.

Yeah, but if they'd all been 1-v.-1 races like the final round of an RCV election is guaranteed to be, it's pretty clear she would've been able to put together a majority coalition of support, at least in the past.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

She’d have to finish behind a democrat to end up loosing with RCV, so I think she’s safe

[MT Treasurer]

I don’t buy that RCV makes her some unbeatable titan. Her coalition is going to be significantly more reliant on Democratic support this time around, and her support among Republicans has eroded. She’s not the underdog yet, but if a well-funded challenger can consolidate anti-Murkowski sentiment among the right (which is very real), she’s going to be in trouble.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Every calculation to convict was a political calculation, because that's the only way Republicans think, so I'm fairly certain that Murkowski still feels comfortable in her position to win re-election next year. Oh sure, maybe it was in fact her conscience taking priority, but I am not willing to concede that about any Republican anymore.

[Frenchrepublican]

Trump launches the offensive against Murkowski

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/1368299864707235843?s=20

[Frenchrepublican]

I don’t buy that RCV makes her some unbeatable titan. Her coalition is going to be significantly more reliant on Democratic support this time around, and her support among Republicans has eroded. She’s not the underdog yet, but if a well-funded challenger can consolidate anti-Murkowski sentiment among the right (which is very real), she’s going to be in trouble.

I totally share this opinion

[I’m not Stu]

Does Joe Miller run?

[compucomp]

I don’t buy that RCV makes her some unbeatable titan. Her coalition is going to be significantly more reliant on Democratic support this time around, and her support among Republicans has eroded. She’s not the underdog yet, but if a well-funded challenger can consolidate anti-Murkowski sentiment among the right (which is very real), she’s going to be in trouble.

I don't think the MAGA candidate (Sarah Palin?) gets to 50%, probably the main danger for Murkowski is falling behind the Democrat into third place. She may have to cut a deal with Schumer so that there is only a nominal Democratic challenger and then actively try to get Democrats' second preference.

Incidentally, this creates a slim opening for a Democrat to win by running a good challenger, knocking Murkowski into third place, and taking Murkowski's second preference votes.