NC (PPP) Cunningham +8

[Comrade Funk]

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/1281275811878834182

[S019]

With this consistent Cunningham leads, tempted to move this to Lean D, but leaving it in Tilt D, Tillis is a clear underdog, at this point

[MT Treasurer]

It’ll be closer than that, but Tillis isn’t less vulnerable than Collins.

[Mr.Barkari Sellers]

Dems have leads in AZ, CO, IA, ME, MT and NC. Sullivan is only up by 5 and Cornyn is only up by 7. SC Graham is tied with Harrison and Warnock and Ossoff are headed for runoffs
 Not to mention KY or KS.

60 SEATS are reachable

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It’ll be closer than that, but Tillis isn’t less vulnerable than Collins.

Their write-up suggests the undecided voters in the Senate race skew towards being Trump 2020 voters and the undecided voters in both the presidential and Senate race skew towards being Trump 2016 voters. They estimated that if all of them went for Trump and Tillis, Cunningham would still lead, but only by 1.

Undecided 15%

July 7-8, 2020
818 voters
MoE: 3.4%

[Horus]

Polling here is giving me Florida 2018 vibes

[MT Treasurer]

It’ll be closer than that, but Tillis isn’t less vulnerable than Collins.

Their write-up suggests the undecided voters in the Senate race skew towards being Trump 2020 voters and the undecided voters in both the presidential and Senate race skew towards being Trump 2016 voters. They estimated that if all of them went for Trump and Tillis, Cunningham would still lead, but only by 1.

Undecided 15%

July 7-8, 2020
818 voters
MoE: 3.4%

IIRC, the undecideds in their ME poll were also not as Democratic-leaning (if at all) as you would expect with a Biden +11 lead.

[Gass3268]

Tillis is starting to give me McSally vibes.

[VAR]

Tillis is starting to give me McSally vibes.

Nah. In April, they had Cunningham up 7. Then 2. Then 4. Now 9.

PPP is weird. I wish we had a Republican version of it.

[Storr]

I highly doubt he wins by this much, but if this election becomes 2008 levels of a "Blue Wave" it is possible, Hagan won by 8.5 in 2008.

[VAR]

It’ll be closer than that, but Tillis isn’t less vulnerable than Collins.

Their write-up suggests the undecided voters in the Senate race skew towards being Trump 2020 voters and the undecided voters in both the presidential and Senate race skew towards being Trump 2016 voters. They estimated that if all of them went for Trump and Tillis, Cunningham would still lead, but only by 1.

Undecided 15%

July 7-8, 2020
818 voters
MoE: 3.4%

IIRC, the undecideds in their ME poll were also not as Democratic-leaning (if at all) as you would expect with a Biden +11 lead.

The Maine poll wasn’t weighted by education so it’s entirely possible that Collins is actually leading and Trump’s losing by less than 11%.

[Storr]

Tillis is starting to give me McSally vibes.

Nah. In April, they had Cunningham up 7. Then 2. Then 4. Now 9.

PPP is weird. I wish we had a Republican version of it.

In terms of being pretty large NC based polling firms, Civitas fits the bill.

[WD]

Lean D

[Mr.Barkari Sellers]

NC is gone and maybe gone for good for Rs. Rs can no longer rely on AZ, FL and NC

[Person Man]

Polling here is giving me Florida 2018 vibes

False. Cunningham is white.

[Gass3268]

Polling here is giving me Florida 2018 vibes

False. Cunningham is white.

And Tills doesn't have a dump truck of personal money he can pour into the race like Scott.

[WD]

Polling here is giving me Florida 2018 vibes

False. Cunningham is white.

Was that really the issue? Were people really lying about who they supported?

[President Johnson]

I'm still reluctant to call this race more than a pure tossup. Polls will probably tighten by fall and undecideds break for Tillis. That being said, I think Cunningham will narrowly win regardless. By a similar margin than Joe Biden carrying the state. Cooper will win by a decent margin.

[Stay out of Georgia]

Polling here is giving me Florida 2018 vibes

Why would you say this. Now I'm depressed.

[Mr.Barkari Sellers]

Polling here is giving me Florida 2018 vibes

Why would you say this. Now I'm depressed.

I think users on this blog forget that we are dealing with Trump not Rubio or Christie. whom Trump made rookie mistakes in Flynn appointment and botched the Covid 19 and hired Sarah Huckabee Sanders instead of a real Press Secretary.  Trump is gonna be blanched

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It’ll be closer than that, but Tillis isn’t less vulnerable than Collins.

Their write-up suggests the undecided voters in the Senate race skew towards being Trump 2020 voters and the undecided voters in both the presidential and Senate race skew towards being Trump 2016 voters. They estimated that if all of them went for Trump and Tillis, Cunningham would still lead, but only by 1.

Undecided 15%

July 7-8, 2020
818 voters
MoE: 3.4%

IIRC, the undecideds in their ME poll were also not as Democratic-leaning (if at all) as you would expect with a Biden +11 lead.

The Maine poll wasn’t weighted by education so it’s entirely possible that Collins is actually leading and Trump’s losing by less than 11%.

President Romney agrees

[VAR]

It’ll be closer than that, but Tillis isn’t less vulnerable than Collins.

Their write-up suggests the undecided voters in the Senate race skew towards being Trump 2020 voters and the undecided voters in both the presidential and Senate race skew towards being Trump 2016 voters. They estimated that if all of them went for Trump and Tillis, Cunningham would still lead, but only by 1.

Undecided 15%

July 7-8, 2020
818 voters
MoE: 3.4%

IIRC, the undecideds in their ME poll were also not as Democratic-leaning (if at all) as you would expect with a Biden +11 lead.

The Maine poll wasn’t weighted by education so it’s entirely possible that Collins is actually leading and Trump’s losing by less than 11%.

President Romney agrees

What does this have to do with President Romney? That Chambers guy literally ignored that there could be a higher Democratic turnout — and tried to somehow change the electorate, which he isn’t supposed to do.

But this is different. If shy Trump voters weren’t a thing, then not weighting by education was the reason the polls were wrong in ‘16 — https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/pollsters-probably-didnt-talk-to-enough-white-voters-without-college-degrees/.

Sara Gideon mostly appeals to college-educated women around Portland and Augusta. But Collins can win big in ME02 where there are many whites with no degree who voted for Trump in 2016. She’ll probably outperform his ‘16 result by 5 points. That can tip the election in favor of Susan Collins. There are also many Republicans “undecided“ who‘ll vote for her, obviously. Undecided Republicans make up 4.8% of the electorate, according to the latest poll. Let’s assume she gets all their votes, she’s at 48%. If there’s a polling error caused by not weighting by education (there often is) then that gets her to 50 or 51.

[WD]

It’ll be closer than that, but Tillis isn’t less vulnerable than Collins.

Their write-up suggests the undecided voters in the Senate race skew towards being Trump 2020 voters and the undecided voters in both the presidential and Senate race skew towards being Trump 2016 voters. They estimated that if all of them went for Trump and Tillis, Cunningham would still lead, but only by 1.

Undecided 15%

July 7-8, 2020
818 voters
MoE: 3.4%

IIRC, the undecideds in their ME poll were also not as Democratic-leaning (if at all) as you would expect with a Biden +11 lead.

The Maine poll wasn’t weighted by education so it’s entirely possible that Collins is actually leading and Trump’s losing by less than 11%.

President Romney agrees

What does this have to do with President Romney? That Chambers guy literally ignored that there could be a higher Democratic turnout — and tried to somehow change the electorate, which he isn’t supposed to do.

But this is different. If shy Trump voters weren’t a thing, then not weighting by education was the reason the polls were wrong in ‘16 — https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/pollsters-probably-didnt-talk-to-enough-white-voters-without-college-degrees/.

Sara Gideon mostly appeals to college-educated women around Portland and Augusta. But Collins can win big in ME02 where there are many whites with no degree who voted for Trump in 2016. She’ll probably outperform his ‘16 result by 5 points. That can tip the election in favor of Susan Collins. There are also many Republicans “undecided“ who‘ll vote for her, obviously. Undecided Republicans make up 4.8% of the electorate, according to the latest poll. Let’s assume she gets all their votes, she’s at 48%. If there’s a polling error caused by not weighting by education (there often is) then that gets her to 50 or 51.

K

[Xing]

It almost certainly won’t be this lopsided, but Tillis really can’t afford to underperform Trump by much, if at all. Still a Toss-Up, but I’d probably give a slight edge to Cunningham in this environment.

[Horus]

Polling here is giving me Florida 2018 vibes

False. Cunningham is white.

True but I still think the lead is inflated. Either this or GA-regular will be the closest Senate race on election night.