SurveyUSA: Pence ahead in early 2024 poll of ME-02 Republicans

[Tender Branson]

Let's assume that in the November 2020 general election, Donald Trump is the Republican nominee for President. Looking ahead 4 years, to 2024, let's say there are only 6 Republicans on the Primary Ballot for President. Which of these 6 Republicans would be your 1st choice to be the Republican Party nominee for President?

(Names rotated)

Ted Cruz, US Senator from Texas? Nikki Haley, former Governor of South Carolina? Mike Pence, Vice President of the United States? Marco Rubio, US Senator from Florida? Donald Trump Jr, the son of the President? Or Ivanka Trump, the daughter of the President?

Among all registered Republicans in ME-02:

* 82% have a favorable opinion of President Donald Trump (57% "very" favorable). Trump will be on the 11/03/20 ballot.

* 65% have a favorable opinion of US Senator Susan Collins (28% "very" favorable). Collins will be on the 11/03/20 ballot.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 adults believed to be registered Republicans from Maine's 2nd US Congressional District, the largest Congressional District in square miles East of the Mississippi River, 06/30/20 through 07/06/20. Of the adults, 848 confirmed that they are registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 738 confirmed that they are registered as Republicans. Of the confirmed registered Republicans, 685 confirmed that they live in the 2nd district. Of the confirmed 2nd district Republicans, 604 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the 07/14/20 Republican primary deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, tri-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (49% of likely primary voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (51% of likely primary voters) were either interviewed by telephone, using live, trained interviewers who hand-dialed each cell phone, secured the safety and cooperation of the cell-phone respondent, asked the questions, noted the answers, and remained on the phone until the successful completion of the interview, or were shown a questionnaire on the display of their laptop, smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. In 2018, Democrat Jared Golden was elected to his 1st term in the US House of Representatives, defeating Republican Bruce Poliquin by 1 percentage point.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d60bcd63-12bd-4b7c-85e8-5102d7b932f0

[South Dakota Democrat]

Why poll 2024 GOP nominee preference in Maine-02 only?  Seems odd.

[Tender Branson]

Why poll 2024 GOP nominee preference in Maine-02 only?  Seems odd.

It's a by-product of their ME-02 GOP primary for November ... which will take place next Tuesday.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Yes, Republicans, please nominate a bland af Trump bootlicker who is also a religious extremist. He'll do really well against an incumbent President/Veep.

[Sir Mohamed]

Mr. Pence isn't a very strong candidate 4 prez on his own. He lacks charisma and doesn't appeal to wider electorate beyond white evangelicals. He isn't even a natural inheritor of Trump's populist base. Although I doubt it, the GOP may nominate him in 2024, but he will lose to Biden's VP unless she makes terrible blunders/Biden really screws it up. Neither of the latter 2 is realistic though.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Don't know if this is the right place to put it but here it is.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1281457522344439808

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Name ID poll essentially.  Pence is from a bygone era in the modern GOP and was only picked by Trump to reassure social conservatives.  If Pence even runs, I don't think he'll get anywhere close to the nomination.

Also, lol at polling Ivanka and Trump Jr. but not Hawley, Cotton, or DeSantis.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Name ID poll essentially.  Pence is from a bygone era in the modern GOP and was only picked by Trump to reassure social conservatives.  If Pence even runs, I don't think he'll get anywhere close to the nomination.

Also, lol at polling Ivanka and Trump Jr. but not Hawley, Cotton, or DeSantis.

Ivanka vs. Don Jr., no less.  Also, what a random place to ask this question  Iowa or NH would be silly enough this far out, but ME-2?  

However, while I agree that Hawley and Cotton should've been included (along with Larry Hogan and Paul Ryan, both of whom for some reason apparently think they have a snow ball's chance of winning, although I suppose Hogan could be hoping to be picked as VP...not that there's any chance of that either), I think Rick Scott is far more likely to run than DeSantis.  

Granted, part of that is because I consider DeSantis a slight underdog at best to win reelection, but even if FL Dems do their thing once again and he somehow limps to victory, DeSantis would likely do about as well in the primaries as Bill De Blasio did this cycle on the Democratic side.  Plus, I get the sense Voldemort will run no matter what DeSantis does.

[mardigrappa]

I am already beginning to grimace at the idea of another one of these open republican primaries. If it's going to be trump dynasty members, vs social conservatives & immigration hardliners then I'm not really sure what to say. They haven't quite exactly learned their lesson from 2012, but really fluked out with rural voters and democratic voter depression trends over the past 10 years.

[Roblox]

Name ID poll essentially.  Pence is from a bygone era in the modern GOP and was only picked by Trump to reassure social conservatives.  If Pence even runs, I don't think he'll get anywhere close to the nomination.

Also, lol at polling Ivanka and Trump Jr. but not Hawley, Cotton, or DeSantis.

Ivanka vs. Don Jr., no less.  Also, what a random place to ask this question  Iowa or NH would be silly enough this far out, but ME-2?  

However, while I agree that Hawley and Cotton should've been included (along with Larry Hogan and Paul Ryan, both of whom for some reason apparently think they have a snow ball's chance of winning, although I suppose Hogan could be hoping to be picked as VP...not that there's any chance of that either), I think Rick Scott is far more likely to run than DeSantis.  

Granted, part of that is because I consider DeSantis a slight underdog at best to win reelection, but even if FL Dems do their thing once again and he somehow limps to victory, DeSantis would likely do about as well in the primaries as Bill De Blasio did this cycle on the Democratic side.  Plus, I get the sense Voldemort will run no matter what DeSantis does.

Unfortunately DeSantis will almost certainly end up winning re-election as long as it's a Biden midterm. If Voldemort could pull it off after committing medicare fraud and slashing education, and DeSantis could do it in a blue wave year, then i'm confident voters short memories will get in the way of kicking him out.

[Sir Mohamed]

Thread already exists in other board: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=382247.0

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Mr. Pence isn't a very strong candidate 4 prez on his own. He lacks charisma and doesn't appeal to wider electorate beyond white evangelicals. He isn't even a natural inheritor of Trump's populist base. Although I doubt it, the GOP may nominate him in 2024, but he will lose to Biden's VP unless she makes terrible blunders/Biden really screws it up. Neither of the latter 2 is realistic though.

If Trump somehow serves a second term, and the GOP nominates Pence in 2024, I see a lot of parallels to Gore 2000. Bland VP who lacks the charisma of his president, will have a difficult time associating himself with Trump's successes, and won't be able to escape the taint of Trump's scandals.

Of course, Gore did win the popular vote, so...

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

Name ID poll essentially.  Pence is from a bygone era in the modern GOP and was only picked by Trump to reassure social conservatives.  If Pence even runs, I don't think he'll get anywhere close to the nomination.

Also, lol at polling Ivanka and Trump Jr. but not Hawley, Cotton, or DeSantis.

Couldn't you, essentially, say something very similar for Biden?

[Escape Pod Zero]

#anyonebutpence #anyonebutdonjr #anyonebutivanka

[Escape Pod Zero]

I support #anyonebutpence #anyonebutdonjr #anyonebutivanka 2024.

[Mr. Morden]

However, while I agree that Hawley and Cotton should've been included (along with Larry Hogan and Paul Ryan, both of whom for some reason apparently think they have a snow ball's chance of winning

I'm not aware of Paul Ryan having done anything to indicate interest in a 2024 presidential run, though it's possible that it's there, and I missed it.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

However, while I agree that Hawley and Cotton should've been included (along with Larry Hogan and Paul Ryan, both of whom for some reason apparently think they have a snow ball's chance of winning

I'm not aware of Paul Ryan having done anything to indicate interest in a 2024 presidential run, though it's possible that it's there, and I missed it.

Ryan left politics in 2018 because he was approaching the age his dad passed at, and wanted to spend less time away from his family in Janesville.  He ain't running.

[Mr. Morden]

Full sample:

Pence 30%
Cruz 12%
Haley 12%
Trump Jr. 11%
Ivanka Trump 7%
Rubio 6%

Both Haley and Ivanka actually do better with men than women…

men:
Pence 27%
Haley 16%
Cruz 11%
Trump Jr. 11%
Ivanka 8%

women:
Pence 33%
Cruz 14%
Trump Jr. 11%
Haley 9%
Ivanka 6%

Pence’s base is very conservative old people with low incomes…

age 18-34:
Pence 22%
Cruz 19%
Haley 15%
Trump Jr. 11%

age 65+:
Pence 35%
Haley 14%
Cruz 10%
Trump Jr. 9%

very conservative:
Pence 35%
Cruz 16%
Trump Jr. 13%
Haley 9%

moderate:
Haley 24%
Pence 20%
Cruz 12%
Rubio 12%

income less than $40k:
Pence 36%
Trump Jr. 14%
Cruz 11%
Haley 8%

income over $80k:
Pence 24%
Haley 16%
Cruz 12%
Ivanka 10%

Who would be your 2nd choice?

Cruz 20%
Pence 17%
Rubio 14%
Trump Jr. 12%
Haley 10%
Ivanka 10%

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Name ID poll essentially.  Pence is from a bygone era in the modern GOP and was only picked by Trump to reassure social conservatives.  If Pence even runs, I don't think he'll get anywhere close to the nomination.

Also, lol at polling Ivanka and Trump Jr. but not Hawley, Cotton, or DeSantis.

Couldn't you, essentially, say something very similar for Biden?

Not really, because Democratic primary voters are not like Republican primary voters.

[Orwell]

Name ID poll essentially.  Pence is from a bygone era in the modern GOP and was only picked by Trump to reassure social conservatives.  If Pence even runs, I don't think he'll get anywhere close to the nomination.

Also, lol at polling Ivanka and Trump Jr. but not Hawley, Cotton, or DeSantis.

Couldn't you, essentially, say something very similar for Biden?

Not really, because Democratic primary voters are not like Republican primary voters.

GOP Primary voters are obviously older, whiter, and wealthier on average.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Name ID poll essentially.  Pence is from a bygone era in the modern GOP and was only picked by Trump to reassure social conservatives.  If Pence even runs, I don't think he'll get anywhere close to the nomination.

Also, lol at polling Ivanka and Trump Jr. but not Hawley, Cotton, or DeSantis.

Couldn't you, essentially, say something very similar for Biden?

Not really, because Democratic primary voters are not like Republican primary voters.

GOP Primary voters are obviously older, whiter, and wealthier on average.

They are also more amenable, especially post-Trump, to anti-establishment candidates.  Pence has nothing to offer the base (except maybe religious and evangelical conservatives, who are losing influence with each passing election) that other, younger, more charismatic candidates don't.  If Pence even gets nominated, it will only be because no other candidate was able to coalesce the people who voted for Trump in the first place.  And even that wouldn't be enough because Trump swept the contests where Cruz was the only viable alternative.