AK (PPP) - Sullivan +5
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Author Topic: AK (PPP) - Sullivan +5  (Read 2068 times)
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
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« on: July 09, 2020, 09:02:43 AM »

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The Mikado
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« Reply #1 on: July 09, 2020, 09:04:03 AM »

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They put it to a vote and they just kept lying
20RP12
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« Reply #2 on: July 09, 2020, 09:06:32 AM »

Flipping the Congressional seat? Gross potentially making gains? N U T

Also:

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Pollster
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« Reply #3 on: July 09, 2020, 09:10:16 AM »

This has Gross a bit lower than we've seen, but generally has the state of the race (all three races) in the same ballpark.

Murkowski's numbers are brutal.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #4 on: July 09, 2020, 09:12:48 AM »

This has Gross a bit lower than we've seen, but generally has the state of the race (all three races) in the same ballpark.

Murkowski's numbers are brutal.

Could that be because Gross is an independent who hasn't yet received the Democratic nomination before (unlike Galvin)? It would account for the higher number of undecided voters, at least. Democratic-leaning respondents could be holding out on the assumption that he's a pure independent and that they'd prefer to wait for a Democratic candidate.

Forrest Dunbar polled slightly higher in an August 2019 survey with a (D) next to his name than with an (I). That probably reverses by election day for most independent candidates with Democratic support.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #5 on: July 09, 2020, 09:15:36 AM »


Wow, 29% approve/55% disapprove. That's... surprising.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: July 09, 2020, 09:23:17 AM »

Gross has done pretty good at fundraising, hasn't he?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #7 on: July 09, 2020, 09:24:37 AM »


Wow, 29% approve/55% disapprove. That's... surprising.

Is it? There’s no reason for a Republican to approve of Murkowski + she’ll never win over enough Democrats to offset that because of the "R" next to her name. Collins' numbers would look similar if not worse if she actively distanced herself from the party.
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Skye
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« Reply #8 on: July 09, 2020, 09:26:53 AM »


Wow, 29% approve/55% disapprove. That's... surprising.

Pissing Trump voters in a Trump state is going to give you bad numbers.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: July 09, 2020, 09:27:27 AM »

Ds losing the Congressional, it's clear now Ds will win this race. Not a good poll for Rs
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Pollster
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« Reply #10 on: July 09, 2020, 09:33:39 AM »

This has Gross a bit lower than we've seen, but generally has the state of the race (all three races) in the same ballpark.

Murkowski's numbers are brutal.

Could that be because Gross is an independent who hasn't yet received the Democratic nomination before (unlike Galvin)? It would account for the higher number of undecided voters, at least. Democratic-leaning respondents could be holding out on the assumption that he's a pure independent and that they'd prefer to wait for a Democratic candidate.

Forrest Dunbar polled slightly higher in an August 2019 survey with a (D) next to his name than with an (I). That probably reverses by election day for most independent candidates with Democratic support.

It looks like PPP presented him as "Independent Al Gross" which is not how he will appear on the ballot. Here is 2018's sample ballot, for reference. Unsure exactly who is undecided in this poll based on the crosstabs, unfortunately.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: July 09, 2020, 09:37:37 AM »

Rs are in enough trouble in MT, AZ, IA, ME, GA, runoff. NC, KS havent been polled lately. 5 pts is bad news for Sullivan
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The Ex-Factor
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« Reply #12 on: July 09, 2020, 09:57:46 AM »

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Calthrina950
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« Reply #13 on: July 09, 2020, 10:00:50 AM »



Murkowski's approvals are shockingly poor. A strong plurality of independents disapprove of her, and she is tied among Democrats. However, I am not surprised about her poor approvals among Republicans, with whom she has always been unpopular. After all, she lost the 2010 primary, and in 2016, almost certainly lost the Republican vote to her 2010 opponent Joe Miller (running as a Libertarian that year). It seems like her recent votes against witnesses and to acquit Trump did nothing to earn her support among them. She is definitely vulnerable in 2022.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #14 on: July 09, 2020, 10:06:47 AM »

This has Gross a bit lower than we've seen, but generally has the state of the race (all three races) in the same ballpark.

Murkowski's numbers are brutal.

Could that be because Gross is an independent who hasn't yet received the Democratic nomination before (unlike Galvin)? It would account for the higher number of undecided voters, at least. Democratic-leaning respondents could be holding out on the assumption that he's a pure independent and that they'd prefer to wait for a Democratic candidate.

Forrest Dunbar polled slightly higher in an August 2019 survey with a (D) next to his name than with an (I). That probably reverses by election day for most independent candidates with Democratic support.

It looks like PPP presented him as "Independent Al Gross" which is not how he will appear on the ballot. Here is 2018's sample ballot, for reference. Unsure exactly who is undecided in this poll based on the crosstabs, unfortunately.

Looking at the crosstabs, 25% of democrats, 23% of Republicans and 30% of Independents are undecided on the senate. The numbers are similar when we look at stated 2016 vote. Looks fluid.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #15 on: July 09, 2020, 10:07:43 AM »

So many undecideds makes the poll practically worthless. Sullivan under 40 is not an encouraging sign for him, but the fact Gross runs way behind Biden isn't great either. My take is Sullivan will get reelected by mid single digits.
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Pollster
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« Reply #16 on: July 09, 2020, 10:20:41 AM »

This has Gross a bit lower than we've seen, but generally has the state of the race (all three races) in the same ballpark.

Murkowski's numbers are brutal.

Could that be because Gross is an independent who hasn't yet received the Democratic nomination before (unlike Galvin)? It would account for the higher number of undecided voters, at least. Democratic-leaning respondents could be holding out on the assumption that he's a pure independent and that they'd prefer to wait for a Democratic candidate.

Forrest Dunbar polled slightly higher in an August 2019 survey with a (D) next to his name than with an (I). That probably reverses by election day for most independent candidates with Democratic support.

It looks like PPP presented him as "Independent Al Gross" which is not how he will appear on the ballot. Here is 2018's sample ballot, for reference. Unsure exactly who is undecided in this poll based on the crosstabs, unfortunately.

Looking at the crosstabs, 25% of democrats, 23% of Republicans and 30% of Independents are undecided on the senate. The numbers are similar when we look at stated 2016 vote. Looks fluid.

The Senate Ballot/Party crosstabs are showing what percent of each party is undecided, not what percent of the undecideds are each party. Good data, but not exactly helpful for predicting how undecideds will break unless you want to do a lot of annoying math.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #17 on: July 09, 2020, 10:28:50 AM »

What'd I keep telling ya'll this entire time. AK-Senate is a competative race. Gross's numbers could very well increase as he defines himself as a canidate, since there are still undecides, and once people know about Gross, they really seem to like him. My current model has gross with a 1/5 chance of winning, and I'm guessing once I imput this poll, his chances will go up.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: July 09, 2020, 10:31:06 AM »

We know its competetive due to fact Young is losing
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Holmes
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« Reply #19 on: July 09, 2020, 10:31:49 AM »

Both candidates being in the 30’s is pretty useless, especially since it’s a poll of Alaska. Pretty poor for an incumbent, though.
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #20 on: July 09, 2020, 10:32:02 AM »

Incumbent under 40 is, uh, bad. Especially when the opponent’s name rec is still in the 20s
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #21 on: July 09, 2020, 10:32:51 AM »

Gonna predict very very narrow Trump/Sullivan/Galvin victories.

Trump+5
Sullivan+3
Galvin+1
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #22 on: July 09, 2020, 10:35:23 AM »



She'll probably pull a Jim Jeffords if Democrats control the senate after November.
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WD
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« Reply #23 on: July 09, 2020, 11:07:18 AM »



She'll probably pull a Jim Jeffords if Democrats control the senate after November.

Do you mean she’ll be an independent and caucus with the Dems? Or outright become a Democrat?
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #24 on: July 09, 2020, 11:11:45 AM »


Yeah, what's pretty interesting is that more Clinton 2016 voters approve of her than disapprove, so I actually wouldn't be all that surprised if polling convinced her to change parties because if AK doesn't make the switch to RCV, then she'd definitely lose a Republican primary again a-la 2010.

And if she does become an Independent who caucuses with Democrats, then - without having to support McConnell &/or win over GOP primary voters - I have a feeling she'd be no more conservative in the Senate as an Independent Democrat than Manchin or Sinema have been, not least because there's literally nothing wrong with having Manchin-style Democrats in states like WV & AK since her being another Manchin is much more preferable than her keeping the (R) next to her name.
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