What's actually going to happen: Trump wins by +15 points
Based on what evidence?
COVID-19 barely making a dent in Alaska, tax cuts, oil boom, less 3rd party votes, increased defense spending, Alaska polls always underestimating republican numbers, Biden underperforming Clinton with native Alaskans, Alaska always swings for the incumbent, etc
lol Tax cuts? Oil Boom? Defense Spending?
Literally none of this matters or will have an effect. You just made this up because you want it to be true. But whatever helps you sleep at night.