Election Twitter/PPP-AK: Trump +3 (user search)
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  Election Twitter/PPP-AK: Trump +3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Election Twitter/PPP-AK: Trump +3  (Read 3161 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: July 09, 2020, 09:10:53 AM »
Wow. A 12% shift right now from 2015.

Even more interesting: Only 6% of whites are undecided. 11% of 'other race' are undecided. So this could really be a tight one, since that group is majorly lean Biden.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: July 09, 2020, 09:15:59 AM »
Important to note: a 12% shift from 2016 would equal (roughly) Biden +14 nationwide, so that NYT/Siena poll is looking more and more accurate by the day
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: July 09, 2020, 09:21:45 AM »
Quote from: Sir Mohamed on July 09, 2020, 09:18:06 AM
AK flipping isn't happening. The state will tighten compared to 2016, that I'm sure of. Mr. Trump might even fall under 50%, but AK has an above-average 3rd party vote share.

Trump barely got 51% in 2016. It's not that hard to see him falling from that, and Biden scooping up a lot of the potential 3rd party voters.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: July 09, 2020, 09:35:48 AM »
Quote from: VARepublican on July 09, 2020, 09:28:08 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on July 09, 2020, 09:10:53 AM
Wow. A 12% shift right now from 2015.

Even more interesting: Only 6% of whites are undecided. 11% of 'other race' are undecided. So this could really be a tight one, since that group is majorly lean Biden.

*rolls eyes*

23% of the respondents are ‘other race’. 11% of them are undecided.
That’s 2.5% of the electorate.

77% of the respondents are white. 6% of them are undecided.
That’s 4.6% of the electorate.

I can’t believe I have to explain this.


What I'm saying is, you could have a very close race if say, the undecided White vote breaks 50-50, and the undecided "other race" vote breaks like 75/25 Biden.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: July 09, 2020, 10:41:43 AM »
Quote from: Make PA Blue Again! on July 09, 2020, 10:25:40 AM
Beware that Alaska polling tends to overestimate Democrats in the state.

However, Trump being only up three points in the state is probably in-line with Biden being up double digits nationwide.

Last time PPP polled AK, they were the most accurate. Granted it was 2014, but they are probably the best bet we have right now of polling accuracy in the state
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: July 11, 2020, 08:07:46 AM »
Quote from: DabbingSanta on July 11, 2020, 07:55:26 AM
2016 polling...

Gravis Marketing (Nov 3-6): Trump +4
SurveyMonkey (Nov 1-7): Trump +17
Google (Oct 25-27): Trump +1
Craciun Research  (Oct 21-26): Clinton +4
Lake Research (Oct 11-13): Trump +1

versus actual results...

Trump +14.73

take with a grain of salt

none of these are PPP though, who accurately polled the state in 2014. context matters.
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