Biggest recruitment busts of the cycle?

[Tekken_Guy]

What opportunities for potentially competitive seats were thrown away because of awful recruitment?

[NewYorkExpress]

Could end up being Colorado Senate, given Hickenlooper's problems however at the moment...I'm going to say both Senate elections in Georgia. Democrats should have done better than Jon Ossoff and Matt Lieberman/Ed Tarver/Raphael Warnock, be it Stacey Abrams, Keisha Lance Bottoms, Jason Carter or Michelle Nunn.

On the Republican side, the biggest recruiting fails I can think of right now are Kansas (they probably could have gotten a stronger challenger to Kobach than Roger Marshall or Susan Wagle...maybe if Jake LaTurner stayed in the race, he could have become Kobach's main challenger), New Hampshire (Republicans could have done better than their field there...maybe Sununnu runs, Kelly Ayotte mounts a comeback, or one of the Republicans on the Executive Council runs), and Tennessee all strike me as bad recruiting jobs (obviously, the Republican is going to win in Tennessee, but they could found a stronger nominee than William Hagerty or Manny Sethi.)

[Ferguson97]

McSally for the Republicans.

Sort of the opposite effect (a competitive race that should’ve been safe) but Kobach if he wins the primary

[President Johnson]

I have a feeling Democrats may have done better in North Carolina. As an example, I think State Attorney General Josh Stein would have been a better candidate.

Best recruitment is Steve Bullock, and it isn't even close. Mark Kelly and Barbara Bollier are second.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The only cases I can think of where seats are outright safe R/D where they probably wouldn't yet have been with a different candidate are New Mexico, Kentucky and Virginia. Even with the right candidates, though, these would still have been likely R/D long hauls.

[Roll Roons]

For Democrats, Texas Senate and PA-01. In the former, they really should have pushed one of the Castros.

For Republicans, New Hampshire Senate and NY-19.

[Pollster]

Democrats really should have done better in PA-01, and probably would have a bigger lead on Tillis with someone like Jackson, Stein, or Cowell.

That being said, I think the actual candidates in both seats are good.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Democrats should've been way more invested in PA-01. I'm not sure if Kentucky would've flipped no matter what, but McGrath just sucks.

[😥]

Senate Democrats: Amy McGrath, Raphael Warnock, MJ Hegar
Senate Republicans: Martha McSally (if she counts), NH and KS nominees
House Republicans: Claudia Tenney
House Democrats: PA-01 nominee

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McSally is a bust candidate for sure. 

[PAK Man]

Funny how a few months ago, everyone in this topic was saying Iowa, but suddenly polling is close and now everyone's quiet on that front. (For the record, I always believed Greenfield was a competitive candidate)

For Democrats, I'll go with the Georgia races. Ossoff never really impressed me as a candidate, and regardless of who Democrats went with in the special, they're probably going to get locked out. Warnock also has had some bad headlines with his personal life too, which will surely be used against him.

For Republicans, no contest that it's Arizona. I've been arguing for years that Martha McSally was probably the most overrated Republican in the party, and she's done everything in her power to prove I was right.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Senate Democrats: Amy McGrath, Raphael Warnock, MJ Hegar
Senate Republicans: Martha McSally (if she counts), NH and KS nominees
House Republicans: Claudia Tenney
House Democrats: PA-01 nominee

Warnock is tied with Collins

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats: KY-SEN, MT-AL, maybe WV-02
Republicans: AZ-SEN (it’s debatable whether this was really a winnable race for the GOP, though), some of the NY seats in the House (especially NY-22, but arguably even NY-11 and NY-19 even though they’re less winnable for the GOP)

If we’re defining "recruitment busts" as "opportunities for potentially competitive seats were thrown away because of awful recruitment", TX-SEN and PA-01 don’t really fit the description because those races are still very much winnable for Democrats.

VA-SEN was never going to be competitive even with a "strong" Republican candidate, and there’s a reason why Sununu didn’t run in NH.

[DaWN]

Democrats: KY-SEN, MT-AL
Republicans: AZ-SEN (it’s debatable whether this was really a winnable race for the GOP, though), some of the NY seats in the House (especially NY-22, but arguably even NY-11 and NY-19 even though they’re less winnable for the GOP)

If we’re defining "recruitment busts" as "opportunities for potentially competitive seats were thrown away because of awful recruitment", TX-SEN and PA-01 don’t really fit the description because those races are still very much winnable for Democrats.

VA-SEN was never going to be competitive even with a "strong" Republican candidate (there’s a reason Sununu didn’t run this year).

Well I suspect he wouldn't have been a very strong candidate for VA-SEN anyway

[MT Treasurer]

^ Tired + typing way too fast is not a good combination.

[Left Wing]

Kentucky and Georgia for Democrats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kentucky and Georgia for Democrats.

McGrath can still win

[Storr]

Democrats: PA-01 by far. How hard is it to find someone in the tossup of all tossups?

Republicans: CA-21. When the NRCC disavows their own nominee, you know you have a problem.

Neither party has completely awful candidates in competitive Senate races (I don't consider NH competitive). A lot of Democratic recruits that originally seemed underwhelming are looking better simply due to the worsening mood of the Country for Republicans (Greenfield, Gideon, Cunningham). But, I'd have to say the worst Dem Senate recruit is MJ Hegar. It's not like Texas Democrats have a huge bench, but solidifying around a Congressional loser who lost during a Democratic wave year is fairly uninspiring. Though her inspiring life story helps make up for that issue somewhat. The possible better candidates that come to mind are Beto and Colin Allred. Obviously Beto was focused on his ill-fated Presidential run, and I doubt Allred wanted to risk his political future running against a three term incumbent after only one House term, so failing to miss those two makes sense. But seeing Beto run for the Senate again following all of the notoriety he gained in 2018 would have been more intriguing than Hegar. So would have been seeing a Black man gain a major party nomination in a majority-minority state.

For Republicans I'd say the worst Senate "recruit" is their success in 2014. They won so many races and now many of those bland empty suit freshmen (Ernst, Daines, Tillis, Gardner, and I suppose McSally could be added too) are facing a very rough election year for Republicans, much less favorable than in 2014.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It's not a recruiting bust if the person is probably gonna flip the seat.  

Senate: The Texas Senate race

House: PA-1

[Left Wing]

Kentucky and Georgia for Democrats.

McGrath can still win

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Dems: TX-Sen, both GA seats, TX-31, CA-22, PA-01, TX-03, NY-24, NE-02, NY-01

GOP: NH-Sen, NH House seats, NJ-03, PA-08, ME-02, NM-02, IL-17, IA-03, MI-08, NV-03, NY-22, NY-19, TX-23, VA-02, WI-03

As you can tell, I generally look poorly on retreads unless they were challengers who came really close last time

[Lognog]

Seeing PA 01 a lot here and it is very true. Democrats have a bench here, half of the state reps/ senators and local officials are democrats. All of them would be better than what we have now. I think the main reason is that after 2018, the Fitz seemed like unbeatable incumbent. Obviously that is not true. He got lucky in 2018 with a F tier opponent and he almost lost a primary to an absolute no name. I think he can still be beat soley on the fact that Trump is so deeply hated in this part of PA.

[Roll Roons]

Seeing PA 01 a lot here and it is very true. Democrats have a bench here, half of the state reps/ senators and local officials are democrats. All of them would be better than what we have now. I think the main reason is that after 2018, the Fitz seemed like unbeatable incumbent. Obviously that is not true. He got lucky in 2018 with a F tier opponent and he almost lost a primary to an absolute no name. I think he can still be beat soley on the fact that Trump is so deeply hated in this part of PA.

He ended up getting 63%. Lower than expected, yes, but that's definitely not almost losing.

[tmthforu94]

Republicans screwed up in Kansas by not convincing Pompeo to run - that would have cleared the field early and the seat would have been Likely R at minimum.

[ShadowRocket]

I echo those saying TX for the Dems. O'Rourke or one of the Castro brothers would've made the race a lot more competitive than it currently.