Biggest recruitment busts of the cycle?

[Progressive Pessimist]

I would have said Greenfield versus Ernst four months ago.

So with that no longer true it's probably McSally, even though she's an appointee and not a recruit. Arizona should not look this easy for Democrats to flip.

[Lognog]

Seeing PA 01 a lot here and it is very true. Democrats have a bench here, half of the state reps/ senators and local officials are democrats. All of them would be better than what we have now. I think the main reason is that after 2018, the Fitz seemed like unbeatable incumbent. Obviously that is not true. He got lucky in 2018 with a F tier opponent and he almost lost a primary to an absolute no name. I think he can still be beat soley on the fact that Trump is so deeply hated in this part of PA.

He ended up getting 63%. Lower than expected, yes, but that's definitely not almost losing.

Almost lost is an exaggeration, however coming from a political dynasty in the area and being seen as one of the most well liked Republicans it was a big shock to many

[morgieb]

Texas and Georgia for Team D, with PA-01 in the House. Dems might still win those but with better candidates the Senate seats would at least be Tossup's, and PA-01 close to in the bag. To a lesser extent, CA-25 might work too whereas Kentucky looks a money pit with zero chance of upside.

Not sure for Team R. New Hampshire, maybe? Hard to know who they could've run bar Sununu though and it would've been stupid for him to run in this climate given he's not being term-limited. In the House, most of the Obama/Trump seats Dems hold bar IA-01 for some reason.

[Mr. Smith]

For the GOP: Arizona

For the Dems: Alaska de-jure [Blanchard doesn't seem like much more than the Zak Ringelstein to Al Gross' Angus King], Georgia Reg de-facto

[Orser67]

TX and GA (both regular and special) for Senate Democrats, Kansas for Senate Republicans. For both parties, I think pretty much all of the other Senate races either a)have average-ish or better candidates (here I'm excluding incumbents, including McSally), or b)were never winnable to begin with.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

TX and GA (both regular and special) for Senate Democrats, Kansas for Senate Republicans. For both parties, I think pretty much all of the other Senate races either a)have average-ish or better candidates (here I'm excluding incumbents, including McSally), or b)were never winnable to begin with.

Jon Osoff has actually been running a stronger campaign than expected.  It's not like he's a top-tier candidate or anything, but I don't think he can really be called a recruiting bust at this point.