2020 Nebraska Redistricting

[TML]

According to 538's Atlas of Redistricting, it's apparently possible to make NE-2 strongly R-leaning (along with the other two districts):

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/nebraska/#GOP

Could this map come to pass under existing rules and regulations there?

[lfromnj]

I heard rumors that Nebraskas non partisan legislature makes this impossible as even if most RepublicNs are conservatives they still dont like the national GOP.

[Nyvin]

According to 538's Atlas of Redistricting, it's apparently possible to make NE-2 strongly R-leaning (along with the other two districts):

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/nebraska/#GOP

Could this map come to pass under existing rules and regulations there?

The rural pols probably want their own seat in the west.   If they include Omaha/Lincoln in all the districts then those areas will probably dominate all the districts.

[lfromnj]

According to 538's Atlas of Redistricting, it's apparently possible to make NE-2 strongly R-leaning (along with the other two districts):

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/nebraska/#GOP

Could this map come to pass under existing rules and regulations there?

The rural pols probably want their own seat in the west.   If they include Omaha/Lincoln in all the districts then those areas will probably dominate all the districts.

Not really, you just split Omaha instead of Sarpy county and take NE omaha. 2 Safe R districts. Rurals still dominate the primary as you just took an 80% D area.

[Oryxslayer]

In 2010 the state adopted guidelines for congressional districts that sought to minimize county cuts and make congressional districts both rational in their makeup and preserve the core of the prior districts. These guidlines could be thrown out by a simple majority in 2020, but for this moment there is rationality.

Normally in a state like Nebraska with these guidelines, a least-change map would be drawn that keeps the Omaha seat, but once again tries to put as much red turf in the seat along with the city. However, with the way Nebraska allocates its electoral votes, and with Joe en route to winning one EV here, the legislature may move towards a map with only one serious county cut. The county getting cut would obviously be Douglas, which would be spread out between two suburban/rural seats.

[Idaho Conservative]

I heard rumors that Nebraskas non partisan legislature makes this impossible as even if most RepublicNs are conservatives they still dont like the national GOP.

I bet they like Bacon better than Eastman.

[Idaho Conservative]

Here's a pretty clean 3-0 map.  NE-3 is still by far the reddest district in the state, despite taking in inner-city territory.  But only about 10% of the district's Republicans are in Douglas county, so Smith shouldn't have a big issue in his primary.  Meanwhile, almost half of the dems in the district are in Douglas county.  NE-2 should now be safe, NE-1 actually moves right.  All incumbents live in their districts and maintain their respective bases.  I see no reason for Republicans not to do this, the backlash would be in an area where Republicans have little support.  And removing urban Omaha helps the suburbs elect their candidate of choice.
NE-1 (Lincoln) Trump+25, McCain+14
NE-2 (Omaha suburbs) Trump+16, McCain+11
NE-3 (rurals+downtown Omaha) Trump+36, McCain+20

[Hope For A New Era]

If they didn't do it after the 2010 elections, they won't do it now.

[Idaho Conservative]

If they didn't do it after the 2010 elections, they won't do it now.

why?

[politicallefty]

If they didn't do it after the 2010 elections, they won't do it now.

why?

Obama had just won NE-02 two years prior and Lee Terry had barely held on.

If there's one strongly conservative state I'd least expect to see a strong gerrymander, it'd have to be Nebraska. It's obviously the most unique legislature in the country and that does affect policy. Only a few years ago, it voted to abolish the death penalty by overriding the governor (which was unfortunately undone at the ballot box). I agree with Oryx that it'll probably be a least-change map, but with NE-02 taking in more red territory and Douglas County completely intact.

If Biden wins NE-02 (and at this time I expect him to), I could see Nebraska just changing itself to a winner-take-all system rather than tear Omaha to shreds. I think that was discussed prior to 2012 and the prospect of Obama winning NE-02 once again.

[Idaho Conservative]

If they didn't do it after the 2010 elections, they won't do it now.

why?

Obama had just won NE-02 two years prior and Lee Terry had barely held on.

If there's one strongly conservative state I'd least expect to see a strong gerrymander, it'd have to be Nebraska. It's obviously the most unique legislature in the country and that does affect policy. Only a few years ago, it voted to abolish the death penalty by overriding the governor (which was unfortunately undone at the ballot box). I agree with Oryx that it'll probably be a least-change map, but with NE-02 taking in more red territory and Douglas County completely intact.

If Biden wins NE-02 (and at this time I expect him to), I could see Nebraska just changing itself to a winner-take-all system rather than tear Omaha to shreds. I think that was discussed prior to 2012 and the prospect of Obama winning NE-02 once again.

Smart to make it winner take all.  Also, while dems could do the same in Maine, that's risky because ME at-large is tilt dem and trending r.  ME being winner take all could backfire.  But still, I think cracking Douglas would be a smart move.  Really easy and the map is still clean.

[TML]

On the flip side, it is possible to create a D-leaning district which stretches from Omaha all the way to Lincoln:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/nebraska/#Dem

Based on what's been posted above, I guess this map would almost certainly run afoul of the rule about minimizing county splits (this one would split 4 counties), right?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I imagine that they want to see how Douglas, Lancaster and Sarpy counties vote this year before deciding any course of action.

[Hope For A New Era]

I imagine that they want to see how Douglas, Lancaster and Sarpy counties vote this year before deciding any course of action.

Seems pretty obvious to me.

Douglas is Safe D, Lancaster is Likely D, Sarpy is Tossup.

Thurston is Lean R and Saline and Dakota are Likely R. All other counties are Safe R.

[Sol]

I imagine that they want to see how Douglas, Lancaster and Sarpy counties vote this year before deciding any course of action.

Seems pretty obvious to me.

Douglas is Safe D, Lancaster is Likely D, Sarpy is Tossup.

Thurston is Lean R and Saline and Dakota are Likely R. All other counties are Safe R.

Why do you assume Trump will win Thurston?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I imagine that they want to see how Douglas, Lancaster and Sarpy counties vote this year before deciding any course of action.

Seems pretty obvious to me.

Douglas is Safe D, Lancaster is Likely D, Sarpy is Tossup.

Thurston is Lean R and Saline and Dakota are Likely R. All other counties are Safe R.

Meh.
I was thinking about numerical margins. Douglas may vote D in any case, but there's a difference between it voting D by 5% or it voting D by 15%

[Idaho Conservative]

I imagine that they want to see how Douglas, Lancaster and Sarpy counties vote this year before deciding any course of action.

Seems pretty obvious to me.

Douglas is Safe D, Lancaster is Likely D, Sarpy is Tossup.

Thurston is Lean R and Saline and Dakota are Likely R. All other counties are Safe R.

Sarpy a tossup?  Trump won by 21.  So many ridiculous takes on this forum.

[Hope For A New Era]

Why do you assume Trump will win Thurston?

Sarpy a tossup?  Trump won by 21.  So many ridiculous takes on this forum.

My bad, accidentally switched Sarpy and Thurston.