Could Minnesota go Red?

[redjohn]

There's a chance, but it's extremely small. At the beginning of this cycle I thought it was a possibility if Trump bumped up his approvals (the midterm flips to the GOP in MN didn't look bad for Trump), but we've seen little movement for Trump in the state. It would take a 2016-style miracle for him to win in Minnesota. Highly unlikely.

[BaldEagle1991]

This would be a real question had the George Floyd incident and COVID-19 didn't happen.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I thought Bronz was banned from making new threads.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Another sock account, newbie

[tmthforu94]

In a 50/50 election, I believe TRUMP would win. As it currently stands, though, I expect Biden to.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a 50/50 election, I believe TRUMP would win. As it currently stands, though, I expect Biden to.

It wont be one, Biden is winning plus even in a Rassy poll

[bagelman]

Not unless Trump manages to become competitive again. He isn't right now. Even then it's an uphill battle.

I'd watch Minnesota in 2024, but not right now.

[Hope For A New Era]

2000: Bush 45.50%
2004: Bush 47.61%
2008: McCain 43.82%
2012: Romney 44.96%
2016: Trump 44.92%

2016's small margin was caused almost entirely by the large (8.64%) third-party vote.

Minnesota isn't going anywhere.

I think it may be one of the most, if not the most polarized states in terms of urban-rural divide.

no it's not

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Not this election cycle, but I expect the next Republican president to win by more than a percentage or two to carry Minnesota.

This is a 2024/2028 GOP victory map in a close election in which the Republican wins the popular vote by more than 2%:

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

No, not in the current environment. The rural white swing in the Iron Range and Northern MN in general is a real trend, but Biden is a much better candidate for 'downscale whites' than Clinton was.

But more importantly, the majority of MN residents live within the Minneapolis-St Paul metro area. It's why Hillary was able to narrowly win the state. Demographic trends tell us that pretty much all metropolitan areas are trending D, there's no reason to suspect that MSP won't (inb4 muh riots, seeing as even most white Americans sided with George Floyd over the cops, it probably won't help Trump as much as you might think). So if Biden can continue the D trend with suburban MSP voters and not lose too many rural, Colin Peterson-style blue dogs, his position in MN is pretty safe.

[Spark]

Trump surely has a chance but Biden is the perfect establishment candidate. MN has had a Dem streak since 1976 and while this streak will be broken, it won't be this election.

[perpetual_cynic]

It is possible, however, the George Floyd shooting in Minneapolis may cause Suburban Minneapolis-St. Paul to swing further left, which could override any potential Trump gains in the rural areas of the state. However, Dems have about maxed out their vote share in Hennepin and Ramsey counties. Their aims now target the suburbs.

[ExSky]

GOP “gains” in Minnesota. Oh give me a break. Trump got fewer votes than Bush in 04. Joe will win by 10-12. I truly can’t wait for this election to come and go so this narrative around GOP “gains” is once and for all dead.

[Badger]

I edited the question. I still get confused by the red/blue flip that this forum does for some weird reason.

HERETIC!!!

Er, I mean welcome to Atlas.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

I cannot believe that the Minneapolis suburban voters will just passively be OK with Minneapolis disbanding its police department.  (I can't believe how many Minneapolis city residents actually favor this, either, but they're more likely to remain in the Democratic fold than suburbanites.)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I cannot believe that the Minneapolis suburban voters will just passively be OK with Minneapolis disbanding its police department.  (I can't believe how many Minneapolis city residents actually favor this, either, but they're more likely to remain in the Democratic fold than suburbanites.)

Some might switch to Trump over this (though the proposal as it stands appears to be just changing the name of the dept. and calling it defunding), but the wider population isn't yet associating Biden all that strongly with the defund movement. Where I think the protests will help Trump is in causing some people to temporarily move out of the Twin Cities and potentially out of state, which should particularly help Republicans in MN-01's race.

[they don't love you like i love you]

I cannot believe that the Minneapolis suburban voters will just passively be OK with Minneapolis disbanding its police department.  (I can't believe how many Minneapolis city residents actually favor this, either, but they're more likely to remain in the Democratic fold than suburbanites.)

So you've clearly not read what actual proposal is. You've also not realized that Biden has nothing to do with it.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

Minnesota is the most likely Clinton '16 state to flip for Trump

Isn't going to happen though

[Figueira]

Could Minnesota have the potential to flip blue this year? One reason why I think it has a a possibility is that it swung hard to the right outside of urban areas last year. I think it may be one of the most, if not the most polarized states in terms of urban-rural divide. idk is this a possibility?

I don't know where you're getting this from. In 2016, rural areas in Minnesota voted for Trump, but by a smaller margin than most other rural areas.

[LiberalDem19]

It is possible, however, the George Floyd shooting in Minneapolis may cause Suburban Minneapolis-St. Paul to swing further left, which could override any potential Trump gains in the rural areas of the state. However, Dems have about maxed out their vote share in Hennepin and Ramsey counties. Their aims now target the suburbs.

I think there's still room for Dems to grow in Hennepin/Ramsey, as there are still quite a few Suburban R's in the Dean Phillips district and the eastern half of the Betty McCollum district.

The McCollum district seems like it's deep blue, but that's due to St. Paul giving her an overwhelming share of the vote. Go out to the suburbs, that district is more 55% DFL

[Former President tack50]

Yes. It is not particularly likely but it could happen.

I remember some theory that claimed the Missouri riots explained part of the massive swing towards Trump in 2016, so maybe the Minneapolis riots will cause a swing towards Trump in MN.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes. It is not particularly likely but it could happen.

I remember some theory that claimed the Missouri riots explained part of the massive swing towards Trump in 2016, so maybe the Minneapolis riots will cause a swing towards Trump in MN.

No it's not, Amy Klobuchar is likely to be one the next AG and prosecute Trump on taxes, and will go out and campaign for Prez Biden

[roxas11]

Im simply having a hard time believing that a state that did not even vote for Trump when trumpism was at its peak in 2016 is now going to vote for trump in 2020 when Trump is nowhere near as attractive to lot of voters as he was back then. plus this time around there is also no Gary Johnson Evan McMullin and Jill Stein in the race ( Kanye is not really running so don't eve tying to bring him up lol )



as I said before When other blue states fell to Trump in 2016
Minnesota did not and I don't for 1 second believe that is going to change in 2020

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Minnesota going red is just as likely as OK going blue.

Rs have really flipped, 1st they said WI was definitely going red again, but then they said PA would flip and now they say MN will flip. Since Trump is losing, they keep altering states

[Coolface Sock #42069]

If Trump actually had a shot at reelection, sure.