Minor Party and Independent General Election Discussion

[Canis]

Hawkins off the ballot in RI:

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1305891990219837440

Didn't the Rhode Island Green Party refuse to nominate anyone?

[Tender Branson]

Hawkins off the ballot in RI:

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1305891990219837440

Didn't the Rhode Island Green Party refuse to nominate anyone?

They did, but Howie still tried to run as an Independent.

And failed.

[New York En Marche!]

Greens off the ballot in Pennsylvania, too.
https://twitter.com/Elaijuh/status/1306609867885629440

[°Leprechaun]

In PA there is the write in option so keeping parties off the ballot is a waste of time.

[Tender Branson]

In PA there is the write in option so keeping parties off the ballot is a waste of time.

Write-in doesn't result in the same number of votes as would be the case with them on the ballot though ...

[The Mikado]

Final* Howie Hawkins Ballot Access (assuming he gets kicked off in Louisiana as seems likely and as his site indicates)

[Former President tack50]

Final* Howie Hawkins Ballot Access (assuming he gets kicked off in Louisiana as seems likely and as his site indicates)

Given Stein was in 43/50 states that seems like a big drop-off from 2016.

Especially considering that Jorgensen will be on the ballot in all 50 states?

[Tender Branson]

He’s on the ballot in 29/50 states + DC.

He has write-in access in 17/50.

He’s not on the ballot in 4.

But some lawsuits are still ongoing, at least according to the map on his website ...

[°Leprechaun]

In PA there is the write in option so keeping parties off the ballot is a waste of time.

Write-in doesn't result in the same number of votes as would be the case with them on the ballot though ...

Probably true since the number of votes for Stein was 1,457,226.
The number of write ins was 1,154,084, which is still pretty many, but less than what Stein got.
Not all states allow write ins.

edit: If Democrats want more votes they should end FPTP.

[Canis]

Final* Howie Hawkins Ballot Access (assuming he gets kicked off in Louisiana as seems likely and as his site indicates)

And heres the map with Write in Acess as well

On the ballot 381
Write in Access only 133
Not on the ballot no write in access 24

[Nyvin]

Final* Howie Hawkins Ballot Access (assuming he gets kicked off in Louisiana as seems likely and as his site indicates)

The South hates third parties for whatever reason, so the Greens being on the ballot in North Carolina and Florida probably won't amount to much unless the margins are super tight (maybe in NC, doesn't look like it in FL).

That really just leaves Michigan and Minnesota as the two true, authentic swing states that they're still listed on. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1306688608615702541

[StateBoiler]

Hawkins off the ballot in RI:

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1305891990219837440

Didn't the Rhode Island Green Party refuse to nominate anyone?

Socratic Gadfly asked at his blog why the national Green Party didn't disaffiliate them at the National Convention in turn.

[StateBoiler]

In PA there is the write in option so keeping parties off the ballot is a waste of time.

Write-in doesn't result in the same number of votes as would be the case with them on the ballot though ...

Probably true since the number of votes for Stein was 1,457,226.
The number of write ins was 1,154,084, which is still pretty many, but less than what Stein got.
Not all states allow write ins.

edit: If Democrats want more votes they should end FPTP.

How are you ending FPTP for a singular office like President?

[The Mikado]

In PA there is the write in option so keeping parties off the ballot is a waste of time.

Write-in doesn't result in the same number of votes as would be the case with them on the ballot though ...

Probably true since the number of votes for Stein was 1,457,226.
The number of write ins was 1,154,084, which is still pretty many, but less than what Stein got.
Not all states allow write ins.

edit: If Democrats want more votes they should end FPTP.

How are you ending FPTP for a singular office like President?

You could either do a two round top two runoff or IRV, neither of which are FPTP.

[StateBoiler]

In PA there is the write in option so keeping parties off the ballot is a waste of time.

Write-in doesn't result in the same number of votes as would be the case with them on the ballot though ...

Probably true since the number of votes for Stein was 1,457,226.
The number of write ins was 1,154,084, which is still pretty many, but less than what Stein got.
Not all states allow write ins.

edit: If Democrats want more votes they should end FPTP.

How are you ending FPTP for a singular office like President?

You could either do a two round top two runoff or IRV, neither of which are FPTP.

Still first past the post, you've just made the post 50% plus one.

[Nyvin]

In PA there is the write in option so keeping parties off the ballot is a waste of time.

Write-in doesn't result in the same number of votes as would be the case with them on the ballot though ...

Probably true since the number of votes for Stein was 1,457,226.
The number of write ins was 1,154,084, which is still pretty many, but less than what Stein got.
Not all states allow write ins.

edit: If Democrats want more votes they should end FPTP.

How are you ending FPTP for a singular office like President?

You could either do a two round top two runoff or IRV, neither of which are FPTP.

Still first past the post, you've just made the post 50% plus one.

That's...not first past the post.

[StateBoiler]

In PA there is the write in option so keeping parties off the ballot is a waste of time.

Write-in doesn't result in the same number of votes as would be the case with them on the ballot though ...

Probably true since the number of votes for Stein was 1,457,226.
The number of write ins was 1,154,084, which is still pretty many, but less than what Stein got.
Not all states allow write ins.

edit: If Democrats want more votes they should end FPTP.

How are you ending FPTP for a singular office like President?

You could either do a two round top two runoff or IRV, neither of which are FPTP.

Still first past the post, you've just made the post 50% plus one.

That's...not first past the post.

Semantics.

You're never getting IRV nationally. Republicans aren't in favor and Democrats won't be either as long as blacks get up and say it's racist. African-Americans in the South have a longstanding position of all runoffs are racist because it allows the white voters to consolidate against the black candidate. They just came out against top-two in Florida.

The game is rigged and the big parties are never going to help out the small parties. It's not a matter of idealism, if you think that you've already lost. it's a matter of raw power. Democrats are viewing every single decision they make through electing Biden and as part of that goal have continued their longstanding practice of systematically for years working to screw over the Greens. Covid-19 this year has aided them by almost every state government denying all petitioning relief up and down ballot, and being backed up on that by state and federal judges. If Covid-19 occurred during the petitioning period to get on primary ballots for both parties, of course the judges would've agreed to relief. Why do they do this? Because it threatens their hold on power and their lives are much easier only having to run against one candidate they can easily pigeonhole. Same is true for the other side. It has nothing to deal with issues.

If you're in favor of more choices than 2, it's best to just acknowledge that and then if you're still in favor of more choices than 2, take action against all the individuals that further foment that system. It's usually state legislators, Secretaries of State, and judges. Seek to get them replaced. Find dirt on them that deprives them of their electability.

[PSOL]

The more time passes, the more obvious truths and trends become.

The level of ballot suppression we’ve seen so far has pretty huge implications for the future trajectory of “serious” third party runs for all offices. For one, with ballot restrictions continuously going up as both parties engage in #bipartisan suppression, the notion that electoral pole alliances being the norm is probably going to continue for parties and “lanes” that aren’t sufficient with resources to get on the ballot and/or are very clannish. The Libertarians don’t need to engage in this tactic as they’re more wealthier backers are pretty loaded to help with legal fights and campaigning. However, poles for independent social democrats and liberals will probably further work together, if not merge entirely to save resources. The Reform Party and Alliance, if the former doesn’t get absorbed unwillingly to the latter through state party defections, has a nonzero chance of merging after the election. If so, that would put them at more than 7000+ members and the go to party for disaffected moderate liberals who aren’t very socially conservative.

Now I’m going to make some predictions on where everything is heading:

The Libertarian Party is in the best position in their entire history. Making it in all states and territories, they finally have a candidate that represents the party and isn’t a washed up celebrity that was once a Republican. The only party that is actually well funded to be a major political force, I expect them to pick up momentum as a force in American politics, at least on the State and local level at first.

The future for the Green Party probably won’t be as bleak as I first thought. While they will have a pretty bad showing this election, in no way getting past 700,000 voters but not being as low as 400,000, they might actually get through this election in one piece. The splitters’ campaigns are heading nowhere and aren’t as able to get cash to fuel themselves after 2020. Most likely they’ll just leave the party without taking much in the way with them to irrelevance. With a dues system being likely after the election, they would have a path in maintaining their status as a relevant force of the Left completely outside of the Democratic Party. However, they are not as alone for that mantle...

The Socially Liberal, economic moderate electoral pole is here to stay. Managing not to be a personality cult that expires after one election, the Delta Party is now (an) Alliance. I can only see them going up as they’re probably the only group in their lane with that many members. I expect further mergers into them, unlike the other parties talked about here.

The American Solidarity Party has found a niche that was long coming. With religious morals apparently absent from both parties, religious voters too opposed to being in a party without all members being cisgendered heterosexuals or not fascists with mortal idols.

... as the Party of Socialism and Liberation are their main competitors for the presidency. Being the most major cadre organization in the country, the PSL exists to get voters from almost exclusively Marxist-Leninists. However, with them being #2 on the Left outside of engaging with the Democrats, I guess they come into competition with people bordering on being trots? There’s a nonzero chance of intersection, and if they manage to score 100,000 votes, there’s only a matter of time before some further recognition of the existence of the two. Given that the party is pulling a Lutte Ouvreire, in almost exclusively participating in executive races, time will tell if their strategy will pay off.

The Constitution Party is doomed to irrelevance in no more than two cycles from now. After state disaffiliation after state disaffiliation and a party split this cycle more relevant than what is being faced in the Green Party, I don’t view them as having the ability to turn the ship around. Most likely is that they further fall into irrelevance as their voters crawl into the Republican Party using similar rhetoric as they do.

As both Ds and Rs are engaging in next level ballot suppression techniques, I fully expect we won’t get another major party or movement for a while. Electoral politics just won’t be doable for groups without the funding and devotion to gather signatures, register voters, raise funds, and have the means to fend off them being thrown out of the ballot in court. This could lead to either more consolidation, mergers, and electoral alliances on all levels if one is an optimist.

Ultimately, 2020 is going to be a major turning point in the history of third parties.

[StateBoiler]

Free & Equal, and Open the Debates, are hosting a presidential debate in Denver on Thursday, October 8. The debate will be live-streamed. The candidates will be in the same room with each other. In order to qualify, candidates must be on the ballot in at least ten states.

Rocky De La Fuente, Howie Hawkins, Gloria La Riva, and Brock Pierce have already confirmed. President Trump and Joe Biden are invited, but they are forbidden by their contracts with the Commission on Presidential Debates to participate in any debates other than the Commission debates. Don Blankenship, Jo Jorgensen, and Kanye West have not said yet whether they will attend.

[StateBoiler]

The more time passes, the more obvious truths and trends become.

The level of ballot suppression we’ve seen so far has pretty huge implications for the future trajectory of “serious” third party runs for all offices. For one, with ballot restrictions continuously going up as both parties engage in #bipartisan suppression, the notion that electoral pole alliances being the norm is probably going to continue for parties and “lanes” that aren’t sufficient with resources to get on the ballot and/or are very clannish. The Libertarians don’t need to engage in this tactic as they’re more wealthier backers are pretty loaded to help with legal fights and campaigning. However, poles for independent social democrats and liberals will probably further work together, if not merge entirely to save resources. The Reform Party and Alliance, if the former doesn’t get absorbed unwillingly to the latter through state party defections, has a nonzero chance of merging after the election. If so, that would put them at more than 7000+ members and the go to party for disaffected moderate liberals who aren’t very socially conservative.

Now I’m going to make some predictions on where everything is heading:

The Libertarian Party is in the best position in their entire history. Making it in all states and territories, they finally have a candidate that represents the party and isn’t a washed up celebrity that was once a Republican. The only party that is actually well funded to be a major political force, I expect them to pick up momentum as a force in American politics, at least on the State and local level at first.

The future for the Green Party probably won’t be as bleak as I first thought. While they will have a pretty bad showing this election, in no way getting past 700,000 voters but not being as low as 400,000, they might actually get through this election in one piece. The splitters’ campaigns are heading nowhere and aren’t as able to get cash to fuel themselves after 2020. Most likely they’ll just leave the party without taking much in the way with them to irrelevance. With a dues system being likely after the election, they would have a path in maintaining their status as a relevant force of the Left completely outside of the Democratic Party. However, they are not as alone for that mantle...

The Socially Liberal, economic moderate electoral pole is here to stay. Managing not to be a personality cult that expires after one election, the Delta Party is now (an) Alliance. I can only see them going up as they’re probably the only group in their lane with that many members. I expect further mergers into them, unlike the other parties talked about here.

The American Solidarity Party has found a niche that was long coming. With religious morals apparently absent from both parties, religious voters too opposed to being in a party without all members being cisgendered heterosexuals or not fascists with mortal idols.

... as the Party of Socialism and Liberation are their main competitors for the presidency. Being the most major cadre organization in the country, the PSL exists to get voters from almost exclusively Marxist-Leninists. However, with them being #2 on the Left outside of engaging with the Democrats, I guess they come into competition with people bordering on being trots? There’s a nonzero chance of intersection, and if they manage to score 100,000 votes, there’s only a matter of time before some further recognition of the existence of the two. Given that the party is pulling a Lutte Ouvreire, in almost exclusively participating in executive races, time will tell if their strategy will pay off.

The Constitution Party is doomed to irrelevance in no more than two cycles from now. After state disaffiliation after state disaffiliation and a party split this cycle more relevant than what is being faced in the Green Party, I don’t view them as having the ability to turn the ship around. Most likely is that they further fall into irrelevance as their voters crawl into the Republican Party using similar rhetoric as they do.

As both Ds and Rs are engaging in next level ballot suppression techniques, I fully expect we won’t get another major party or movement for a while. Electoral politics just won’t be doable for groups without the funding and devotion to gather signatures, register voters, raise funds, and have the means to fend off them being thrown out of the ballot in court. This could lead to either more consolidation, mergers, and electoral alliances on all levels if one is an optimist.

Ultimately, 2020 is going to be a major turning point in the history of third parties.

Libertarians up: Organizationally as the vote count is decreasing from 2016 but probably up from 2012. Democratic votes disappearing from rural areas and Republican votes disappearing from upscale urban areas helps this. Per Richard Winger, them and the Republicans are the only parties that have more Congressional candidates in 2020 than they do 2018.

Greens middle: their nomination cycle this year exposed some internal divisions, per a couple readings of it this helped serve to get rid of some quacks or people not supporting the party; their presidential goal should be to meet their 2012 numbers. Hawkins tried to consolidate the "left of the Democrats" vote and it's really not worked beyond the tiny SPUSA and he gave them the VP slot. I guess their new philosophy is ecosocialism. Problem is some entities, backing the Greens leads to the inevitable "should we disappear?" question. I think that played a role in the Peace & Freedom primary in California.

Constitution down: the party really needs to work to get all their state affiliates back on the same page, might've been a money deal but Blankenship was not the right candidate at all for them. I know there's one splinter formed of the Life & Liberty Party that's on in a couple states. But the national party has not been cohesive since...2012? If Trump loses as expected and the Republicans in turn go a little left, it might be their one chance to get back up.

American Solidarity and Alliance up. Both new entities. American Solidarity has a unique place that caters to a particular point of view. Alliance is trying to be a loose confederation of the reform-minded and centrists. It's a positive start, now they have 4 years to grow their affiliates at the local and state level. For example the Minnesota Independence Party needs to be brought back to prominence. The discussion about the Reform Party above, they only have ballot access in Florida, so they're no different the Natural Law Party of Michigan as far as Rocky De La Fuente's presidential campaign.

PSL up. I know this is not how left-wing politics work at all, but the left does need more unity. Should be the next thing.

[StateBoiler]

http://ballot-access.org/2020/09/22/new-york-times-article-on-green-party/

The New York Times has published a long article about the Green Party. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/22/us/politics/green-party-republicans-hawkins.html The theme is that the Republican Party in the past and currently has helped in a few states to get the Green Party on the ballot.

The story is myopic. The authors take it for granted that it is difficult for a party like the Green Party to get on the ballot. The authors should ask the big question: why should be difficult for a party with some measure of support to need the support of a more powerful organization to get on the ballot? The Green Party has elected state legislators in three states, and it polled 1,457,217 votes for president in 2016, even though it was not on the ballot in six states.

In Great Britain and Canada, two countries that are very similar to the United States, ballot access is so easy that the Green Party regularly qualifies for the ballot in virtually every district, for Parliament. If it is true that the U.S. Green Party’s presence in the campaign injures the Democratic Party, then it is probably also true that the Green Party’s existence in Canada injures the Liberal Party, and that the Green Party in Great Britain injures the Labour Party. But no one in either Canada or Great Britain ever even imagines having an election law that would keep the Green Party off the ballot.

The Times also ignores the evidence that left parties and candidates in the U.S. do not injure the Democratic Party. The Times makes no mention of Political Science/Pollster Sam Lubell’s findings that the Progressive Party of 1948, which ran former vice-president Henry Wallace for president, helped Harry Truman to defeat Thomas Dewey. The Times makes no mention of the findings of four major pollsters in 2004 that a slight majority of Nader voters said, if Nader were removed from the ballot, they would vote for George W. Bush, not John Kerry. See the Washington Post of October 22, 2004, front page.

The Times also says that 2020 Green Party presidential nominee Howie Hawkins is on the ballot in 28 states. Actually he is on in 29 states, plus the District of Columbia, and also he is on the Guam advisory ballot.

[AltWorlder]

The American Solidarity Party has found a niche that was long coming. With religious morals apparently absent from both parties, religious voters too opposed to being in a party without all members being cisgendered heterosexuals or not fascists with mortal idols.

That's an uncharitable characterization of them, as any. If the ASP was simply an ultra-reactionary theocratic social conservative party then they could simply vote for Constitution, or for any of the many many minor far-right parties that exist across America.

[beaver2.0]

The American Solidarity Party has found a niche that was long coming. With religious morals apparently absent from both parties, religious voters too opposed to being in a party without all members being cisgendered heterosexuals or not fascists with mortal idols.

That's an uncharitable characterization of them, as any. If the ASP was simply an ultra-reactionary theocratic social conservative party then they could simply vote for Constitution, or for any of the many many minor far-right parties that exist across America.

Yes it's very important to note the ASP is fairly left-wing economically.  I won't deny people of faith are dominant, but it's not your mainstream prosperity gospel type of Christian.

[PSOL]

The American Solidarity Party has found a niche that was long coming. With religious morals apparently absent from both parties, religious voters too opposed to being in a party without all members being cisgendered heterosexuals or not fascists with mortal idols.

That's an uncharitable characterization of them, as any. If the ASP was simply an ultra-reactionary theocratic social conservative party then they could simply vote for Constitution, or for any of the many many minor far-right parties that exist across America.

Yes it's very important to note the ASP is fairly left-wing economically.  I won't deny people of faith are dominant, but it's not your mainstream prosperity gospel type of Christian.

They’re much further right than most Western European Christian Democratic parties socially. As it’s evident, they definitely fill a niche.