Democracy Institute/Sunday Express: Tie

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Their last poll in June showed Trump+1%.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1305342/Trump-news-Donald-Trump-US-election-2020-latest-Black-Lives-Matter

July 1-3, 2020
1500 likely voters
MoE: 2.5%

National poll:
Biden 47%
Trump 47%
Undecided 6%

Battleground [Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin]:

Trump = 48%

Biden = 44%

Undecided = 8%

Electoral College Vote Projection (if election voting mirrored these poll results):

Trump = 309 [picks-up Minnesota & New Hampshire]

Biden = 229 [picks-up Wisconsin]

[wbrocks67]

What in the world is this garbage

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

No. 

[wbrocks67]

Biden winning Wisconsin but losing Minnesota? OK gurl

[Granite City]

What does The Express even get out of this poll? It's not like their readership is invested in Trump; in my experience, even the most rabid right-wing populists in the UK think he's an idiot.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

What does The Express even get out of this poll? It's not like their readership is invested in Trump; in my experience, even the most rabid right-wing populists in the UK think he's an idiot.

The Express deals in clickbait, it's why every third article they published has the words "WORLD WAR III in its headline

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

No. 

I presume they’re giving Biden ME-02.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

What does The Express even get out of this poll? It's not like their readership is invested in Trump; in my experience, even the most rabid right-wing populists in the UK think he's an idiot.

The Express deals in clickbait, it's why every third article they published has the words "WORLD WAR III in its headline

They also have to get at least one mention of Princess Diana in every 10 articles or so.

[Person Man]

At least there isn't a poll this year showing Trump consistently in the lead. In 2016, Trump's best was like Trump +4. The best now is a tie.

[Person Man]

No. 

I could see this minus Minnesota if this campaign turns out to be a flop.

[BlueSwan]

LMAO: https://democracyinstitute.org/

Why is it that every time there is a good poll out for Trump, it is from a laughably biased source, LOL.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol Biden losing MN, and MI with Whitmer approval isnt happing. Give Biden PA, MI, and MN

[LimoLiberal]

Interesting that this hasn't been added to the 538 aggregate. Fake poll?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

No. 

This is a pretty good 2012 Pawlenty/Christie victory map.

[n1240]

National Popular Vote

Trump = 47%
Biden = 47%
Undecided = 6%

White voters: Trump = 52%   Biden = 46%
Black: Trump 16%    Biden = 81%
Hispanic: Trump 34%    Biden = 51%

How do you get a tied result with these breakdowns by race?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bogus poll of course, even Rassy has Biden up 11

[Hammy]

National Popular Vote

Trump = 47%
Biden = 47%
Undecided = 6%

White voters: Trump = 52%   Biden = 46%
Black: Trump 16%    Biden = 81%
Hispanic: Trump 34%    Biden = 51%

How do you get a tied result with these breakdowns by race?

There's definitely no way, even if his numbers among Black and Hispanic voters were correct, that he can gain a point in the polls compared to 2016 while dropping that much with voters that make up 3/4 of the electorate. And Biden certainly wouldn't be down from Hillary.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Is this another poll of an alternative universe?

[BobbieMac]

Say what you want about the Sunday Express (it is a ludicrous newspaper) but they do regular UK opinion polling, generally with legit firms like ComRes. So I have no idea why the Sunday Express is running a poll like this, especially by an unknown polling firm with an incredibly dubious website.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McSally is certainly gonna lose and most likely AZ goes with Biden along with Senate race. MI Whitmer have a 60 percent approval rating. PA, Biden has a 5 pt lead. MN has the longest blue winning streak since 1972, even RI voted for Reagan in 1984

[Arkansas Yankee]

Some caveats for you Biden supporters.

My wife says she would tell pollsters she would vote for BiDEN.  FAT CHANCE!  She switched toTrump in ‘16, when Rubio bombed in NH.  My son went over a week or so later.  I did not go over till after Indiana primary. He almost aLmost lost me after the access Hollywood tape.

This year my wife and I will enthusiastically for Trump.  Fear of the Democrats, who have gone crazy.

My son will vote out of fear.

Out of fear we will will probably not put a bumper sticker on the car.  We are mnow living in an apartment in Fredericksburg, VA.  So, no yard signs.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Some caveats for you Biden supporters.

My wife says she would tell pollsters she would vote for BiDEN.  FAT CHANCE!  She switched toTrump in ‘16, when Rubio bombed in NH.  My son went over a week or so later.  I did not go over till after Indiana primary. He almost aLmost lost me after the access Hollywood tape.

This year my wife and I will enthusiastically for Trump.  Fear of the Democrats, who have gone crazy.

My son will vote out of fear.

Out of fear we will will probably not put a bumper sticker on the car.  We are mnow living in an apartment in Fredericksburg, VA.  So, no yard signs.

Nice to see you're still around, Yankee!

--

I might be more likely to believe that there is this massive swath of Trump voters telling pollsters that they're voting for Biden if polling for certain House and Senate races didn't also indicate a decent election year for the Dems.  

Not wanting to be vocal about your support for Trump? Makes sense.  

Not wanting to be vocal about your support for Thom Tillis or Susan Collins? Much less likely.  

[Epaminondas]

Some caveats for you Biden supporters.

My wife says she would tell pollsters she would vote for BiDEN.  FAT CHANCE!

The idea that an old white person seething with resentment at the way old white people are not "respected" anymore would, when actually asked their opinion for a poll, pretend they were someone else, is very implausible.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump isnt winning MN