The Presidency of America's Maverick
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October 27, 2021, 09:47:43 PM

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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: #CriminalizeSobriety, Dereich)
  The Presidency of America's Maverick
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The Presidency of America's Maverick
 
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Author Topic: The Presidency of America's Maverick  (Read 27557 times)
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« Reply #425 on: October 13, 2021, 08:57:21 PM »

CNN: Election Night in America 2005:



Source: https://i.ytimg.com/vi/haRo8uLQNok/hqdefault.jpg

7:00:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rchmoqssrQw&t=0s

Blitzer: Good evening and welcome to CNNís coverage of the 2005 Off Year election. We will be watching the results in Virginia, New Jersey and the city of New York to see who will be elected governor and mayor of those places and we will also discuss whether these results have national implications. The polls have just closed in Virginia and currently we are unable to make a projection. Here is the CNN map for tonight and keep in mind while the state of New York is colored in green , it does not stand for the state of New York tonight but the city of New York .



Schneider: So far no surprise given the fact this race was very close but I will say we should have some key indication in an  hour . If the independent candidate is say not hitting the 3 percentage mark then the Republican Jerry Kilgore will likely win but if the independent candidate is say going over the 5 percentage mark then the Democrat Tim Kaine will likely win tonight.

Greenfield : One thing I am interested in seeing is the Virginia house of delegates where currently Republicans hold 64% of the  seats there and the democrats goal this time has been to bring the republicans under the 60% mark while  Republicans hope to get a 2/3 majority there but both scenarios according to the experts is unlikely . With us is one of the experts Larry Sabato who can tell us more about that

Sabato: Yes I would definitely like to and seeing some of the numbers going in Iíd say that the democrats probably will make gains though probably not enough to get the GOP under  the 60% mark . As for the gubernatorial race Iíd say another key is if Mr.Kaine can flip either Loudoun or Prince William counties as if he does he will almost certainly win . If not he needs them to be under 5 points for him to have a realistic path to victory tonight

8:00:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rchmoqssrQw&t=0s

Blitzer : The polls have just closed in New Jersey and CNN Right now can project The Democrat, Acting Governor Richard Codey, will win a full term on his own and thus the democrats will control the gubernatorial mansion in New Jersey for another 4 years . Right now in Virginia, currently the Republican candidate hold an lead there though but some good news for the Democrat Tim Kaine is the independent candidate is so far winning over 4% of the vote .



Schneider : Well no surprise in New Jersey and from the looks at it Virginia is gonna be really close

Greenfield : Yes I agree , the results so far in Virginia do confirm what the polls were saying and that it will be very tight .

Sabato : So far Iíd say if I had to say who has the edge , itís the democrat Tim Kaine who has it though itís too early to say for sure . The reason I say that is the independent is getting 4% of the vote which does hurt Mr.Kilgore plus the way Prince William and Loudoun are coming in that once the more democratic areas of those counties come in , those areas will be within 5 points

Blitzer : In a Republican state like Virginia why is Mr.Kilgore struggling so much

Sabato : Well there are multiple factors  one being that Mr. Kaine is a moderate to conservative democrat and is running to succeed a very popular governor who fits that label as well . Second Mr.Kilgore alienated many republicans during the primary by refusing to debate any of the candidates and that explains the third party vote there as well.


9:00:

Blitzer : The polls have closed in New York City and we can now project that the Republican,  Mayor Bloomberg, will be re-elected as mayor of the largest city of the nation . This will be the 4th consecutive win for the republicans in this traditionally very democratic city at least in national and state elections . In Virginia Mr.Kilgore leads but his margin has now dropped under 5 points showing it could be very close their tonight indeed




Schnider : Again no surprise here as Mayor Bloomberg is indeed extremely popular that even the editorial board of the New York Times that generally endorses democrats , endorsed him for reelection . I also wouldnít look much into their streak as keep in mind both then Mayor Giuliani and Mayor Bloomberg are more liberal than the GOP as a whole on many issues like abortion , guns and others .

Greenfield : Yup , and also keep in mind that itís a local race and the fact is crime has gone down drastically in New York City over the past 12 years following  the preceding 10 to 12 years when crime was viewed as out of control . So when you have things like that happen, the party in power tends to benefit justifiably or unjustifiably and the Republicans definitely benefited from that .

Blitzer : Larry what are you hearing in Virginia so far

Sabato : Well in the house of delegate it does look like Democrats will make gains but not enough to get the Republicans below that 60% mark but we are told that they can get them down to as low as 60% though 61 or 62 percent seem more likely . In the gubernatorial race I donít think much as changed and we will have to wait and see till all the results are in too see how wins that race

Blitzer: Ok our decision desk has agreed that it will likely be until after midnight till we have results so we will send it back to normal programming for now and then be back once we can make a decision here to discuss about it .


12:53

Blitzer: Basically all the votes have come in Virginia and CNN can now project that the Democrat Tim Kaine will be the next governor of the state defeating his Republican opponent 47.9% to 47.6% with the independent getting 4.3% of the vote .





Schnider : Looks like Virginia will continue its streak of electing a governor of a different party than the party that holds the White House , which is a streak that goes all the way back to 1973.

Greenfield: Also for republicans before they blame the independent Russ Pots , that it was the fault of their Republican candidate for being unable to unite the party and not the fault of Mr.Pots or even Republican voters who didnít back Mr.Kilgore as itís the job of the Candidate to appeal to voters while itís not the job of voters of their party to vote for them .

Sabato: Fully agreed with that sentiment but for any of you interested in the house of delegates, the final numbers are expected to be 61 republicans to 39 democrats a gain of 3 for the Democratic Party tonight. Those gains came from seats in Fairfax county which democrats here  after seeing that Senator  Biden won that county , put in resources to flip marginal seats held by the republicans here .

Blitzer : All right that does it for our coverage of election night 2005
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« Reply #426 on: October 13, 2021, 09:18:12 PM »

Virginia flipping must make Senator George Allen very, very nervous.
Republicans are in for a rough Midterm Night in 2006. I don't think they will lose 30 Seats like in the OTL but likely 15 - 17 Seats and Democrats might narrowly snatch the House.
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« Reply #427 on: October 13, 2021, 10:39:09 PM »

Virginia flipping must make Senator George Allen very, very nervous.
Republicans are in for a rough Midterm Night in 2006. I don't think they will lose 30 Seats like in the OTL but likely 15 - 17 Seats and Democrats might narrowly snatch the House.

It's only 0.4% that he lost by IOTL. With McCain not being Bush and given that Kaine won by five OTL I think Allen will make it (even though I hate him with a passion).
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« Reply #428 on: October 14, 2021, 06:59:14 PM »

Breaking News: Antonin Scalia and Paul Clement sworn in by outgoing acting Chief Justice Sandra Day O'Conner after being confirmed by the United States Senate



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9PIf1rkrmo

Blitzer: Just a few moments ago Justice Antonin Scalia was sworn in by outgoing acting Chief Justice Sandra Day O'Conner who was temporarily appointed by President McCain to ensure the Supreme Court has 9 justices during this confirmation process and now he will officially be moving up from Associate Justice to Chief Justice.

Schnider: Yes and keep in mind while many prominent liberals opposed his nomination, given the fact he was already an Associate Justice did make this process easier and as you can see in the nearly 2/5 of the Democratic caucus voted for this appointment. Now on the other hand for Mr.Paul Clement who will be taking over Chief Justice Scalia's spot as Associate Justice faced a pretty grueling confirmation process.

At first these confirmation hearings got delayed, as many senators who were on the fence wanted to wait to receive more information before the hearings began which is why this process has dragged out to mid-Novemeber. The reason for that is while Paul Clement does have a great legal background, he never has been a judge before and the fact that he was a Solictor General made many senators question over and over again if he could be unbiased in cases involving the White House and the adminstation in general. In the end though 7 Democratic Senators: Inez Tenenbaum, Ben Nelson, Evan Bayh, Tim Johnson, Mary Landrieu and Robert Byrd voted for cloture which meant even though Republican Senators like Jim Jeffords, and Lincoln Chafee didnt , there was more than the 60 votes required to break a filibuster. So due to that he now will be one of the youngest Associate Justices ever at age 39 though there have been justices in the past who have been younger.

Blitzer: What does this mean for the ideological composition of the court

Schnider: On paper it really shouldnt doesn't change given the late Chief Justice Rehniqust was personally very conservative, and in fact before he became chief justice had a more conservative judicial record than Justice Scalia ever has had before he more or less became more or less pragmatic when he moved up from Associate Justice to Chief Justice. From the evidence we have, it seems like it likely will happen with now Chief Justice Scalia too given that Scalia has moderated over the years and has shown more of a pragmatic side over the years.

Similarly with Justice Clement, ideologically he is considered to be similar to Justice Scalia but again given he never has been on the court before, he more or less could be a wildcard. It is very possible he could end up like say Justice Thomas and be this very ideologically conservative but he could also end up more moderate like Justice Kennedy so its hard to know how he would change the court really.  I would say overall these picks just upheld the status quo but I will say that the Scalia Court overall will likely end up being more conservative than the Rehnquist court given Justice Cook is definitely more conservative than Justice O'Conner.
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« Reply #429 on: October 14, 2021, 07:06:29 PM »

Virginia flipping must make Senator George Allen very, very nervous.
Republicans are in for a rough Midterm Night in 2006. I don't think they will lose 30 Seats like in the OTL but likely 15 - 17 Seats and Democrats might narrowly snatch the House.

It's only 0.4% that he lost by IOTL. With McCain not being Bush and given that Kaine won by five OTL I think Allen will make it (even though I hate him with a passion).
It's true that's only 0.4 but you really have to take into account the big Demographic Changes in NoVa which happened between 2004 and 2006 in the OTL which would massivly affect the 2006 VA Senate Race even in this slightly more GOP-lean TL. VA will probably the closest Senate Race in 2006.

And whomever the GOP Nominee is in 2008 will have huge problems holding VA, OH, CO, NV and NM.
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« Reply #430 on: October 16, 2021, 09:26:04 PM »

White House releases outline of corporate tax reform plan they would like to see passed in Congress   

Blitzer: The White House today released an outline of a tax plan which we are told isnt that detailed so what is in the outline

Dobbs: So the crux of this plan to reform the corporate tax rate is one to slash rates from 35% to 25% a cut that many experts believe would reduce tax revenues by around a trillion dollars over the next 10 years and right now their plan is to make up for that revenue by making Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax Rules stricter and limiting other deductions such as the NOL deductions. Now there aren't many exact details released in this plan on how they plan to recoup most of the trillion dollars but what we are told is that that the reason for that is the President and his team is very flexible in that regard so we will have to wait and see what exactly they will do in that regard.

Blitzer: We are told that Paul Ryan did have a lot of influence over this

Dobbs: Yes absolutely we are told though he wanted to cut the rate all the way down to 20% and potentially impose a border adjustment tax which is something the President did not want to do which is why the rate is at 25% instead.
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« Reply #431 on: October 19, 2021, 01:06:38 AM »

Iraqi elections take place with high turnout and relatively low violence

Blitzer: Earlier today voters in Iraq went to the polls to elect their first-ever Democratically elected government and we are told that it was indeed a success as there was a relatively high turnout with over 60% of citizens voting and with very little violence as well. President McCain and outgoing Defense Secretary Tom Ridge called it a great day for the people of Iraq and hope it can lead to more nations becoming democracies as well in the future.

Foreign Affairs Correspondent: Yes it is indeed a great day but keep in mind the President also said the work is not over as now whoever the Iraqi Prime Minster must show the Iraqi people that Democracy can work in improving people's lives as well .


Senate Confirms Robert Gates to be the next Secretary of Defense and Bill Bratton to be the next Secretary of Homeland Security following Secretary Ridgeís resignation

Blitzer : The Senate earlier today confirmed that Homeland Security Secretary to the Position of Secretary of Defense following Secretary Ridgeís official resignation and then confirmed Police Commissioner Bill Bratton to the Position of Secretary of Homeland Security. Both of them received unanimous support from the senate like expected for there positions and now we will see if they can meet the President and the senateís expectations for that role .

Schneider: One thing Iíd like to add is Tom Ridge probably will go down as one of the greater Secretary of defense since that position was created in 1947 and he goes out with praise from leading members of both parties which makes sense given that heís always been relatively a pragmatist even as governor of Pennsylvania.

Blitzer: There are rumors he may run for president in 2008 , how true are those rumors

Schneider: I think he definitely may run but as long as Governor Giuliani wins re-election next year as polls say he almost certainly will and runs , I believe Governor Giuliani will most likely be the main Republican candidate from the moderate wing in the primary .
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« Reply #432 on: October 23, 2021, 02:11:17 AM »

Federal Reserve Chair Greg Mankiw reconfirmed by the Senate despite tough questioning on his decisions to raise interest rates:



Blitzer: Federal Reserve Chair Greg Mankiw was reconfirmed by the Senate earlier today meaning he will remain as head of the Federal Reserve until January of 2010. Lets Go to Bill Schnider for more detail about this

Schinder: Keep in mind that Mr.Mankiw did initially face a lot more opposition by many senators from both parties then most nominees to the Federal Reserve usually do and that was due to the fact the effective federal fund rate has been raised to over 6%. Many senators from both parties were worried that it was slowing down economic growth and many are worried about a potential slow day and maybe recession in the near future due to this as well. His answers seem to have satisfied enough senators that he was able to be reconfirmed .


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« Reply #433 on: October 26, 2021, 01:50:46 AM »

Excerpts from President McCain's 2006 state of the union address:



Souce: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/extra/app/uploads/2019/02/RTX6LFXE-1024x683-e1549455385158.jpg


Speaker Hastert: Ladies and Gentleman , its my high honor to welcome to you , the President of the United States!!

Congress Floor: Standing Ovation

President McCain: Mr. Speaker, Vice President Danforth, Members of Congress, distinguished guests, and fellow citizens: I want to start out by congratulating the people of Iraq for creating a strong constitutional democratic system in October and electing a democratically led government in December and let the people know that it was an inspiring sight to see(Standing Ovation). It is a reminder also to all of us here that Democracy and a government that adheres to the needs of the people first is worth not only fighting for but worth continuing improving as well(Applause). It is why I am proud of the many reforms we have made over the past few years to improve our democratic system as well(Applause). We also must continue to fix issues facing our nation in general to ensure that our nation's system remains the envy of the world(Applause).

One of those issues is the issue of immigration where over the years its became more and more clear for over a decade that our system is broken and it is time now for us to come together to solve that issue(Applause). It is been an issue that has polarized politics in many of our border states such as California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas and it is time that we stop punting that issue for those states to deal with as it is our responsibility to solve that issue not theirs(Applause). Solving this issue requires us to deal with multiple issues: One being that we must secure the border which is why I propose we allocate the funding needed to build a fence and increase border security on the vulnerable parts of the border and to create an employment enforcement agency that penalizes employers that hire undocumented immigrants(Applause). Number two we must provide a way for undocumented immigrants who have been here for 5 years or longer and have not committed any crimes since then to come out of the shadows which is why I propose creating a visa called the Z-Visa which would let them stay here while they apply for permanent residency status and they would be placed in the back of the line as well so they dont get ahead of anybody who has done it the right way(Applause).

We also must come together to continue to pass policies that help create a better economy for all of our citizens which is why I have proposed this body pass corporate tax reform(Applause). We currently have a corporate tax code that one makes us uncompetitive with the rest of the world as we have one of the highest tax rates on the planet and number two we have a tax code that is filled with loopholes that allows some corporations to get away with paying nothing while others are penalized for being too successful. It is time we fix that system by creating one a tax code that has rates that are in line with the rest of the world instead of rates that are higher than them and one that levels the playing field so less profitable corporations don't have to pay more in taxes than the ones that are more profitable(Applause). Doing so would make it possible for us to get the types of investments we need in our economy which in turn will make it easier for more and more Americans not only to get jobs but higher-paying ones as well(Applause).

It is critical that we continue to solve the problems we face at home to keep moral high when we fight to make the world a better place as well(Applause). We have been the greatest beacon of freedom the world has ever and it is my intention that we continue to be that beacon for generations to come(Standing Ovation). Thank You May God Bless You and May God Bless America
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« Reply #434 on: October 26, 2021, 06:32:26 PM »

President McCain drops attempt to get South America on board with a trade deal as he submits trade deal agreed to by Central America and Dominican Republic to Congrees:

Blitzer: The President earlier today dropped an attempt to get South America on board with a trade deal that would have included all of Latin America and sent to congress the trade deal the US already has tentatively agreed to by Central America and the Dominican Republic. We are told that nations such as Brazil and Argentina made it clear they would not sign on to any such trade deal and instead of risking the entire trade deal falling apart, the President decided to formally submit a trade deal now being called CAFTA to congress.

Greenfield: Yes the phrase is that while half a loaf isnt as good as the entire loaf it certainly is better than no loaf at all is certainly applicable here. While the President wanted South America to be part of this trade deal the fact is with nations as large and influential in South America such as Brazil and Argentina being so adamantly opposed to such a trade deal, it wasn't going to happen.

Blitzer: Could it happen in the future

Greenfield: Sure it could as you remember for NAFTA originally just the US and Canada signed a trade deal and Mexico later joined on so a similar thing could happen here. Though it likely won't happen until well into whoever the next president's administration as it will take some time for the full effects of this agreement to be known and if its proven to be good then that would be something that could get South America to join this deal.


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