The Presidency of America's Maverick
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #350 on: July 14, 2021, 08:10:45 PM »

I am not posting a Map but I'll say this: McCain will win easily.
 
However having Washinton & Oregon as Toss Ups is a little bit too optimistic on your behalf.

Biden will win PA, NJ, McCain will win OH. McCain will also win Iowa, Michigan & Wisconsin and Biden will win Minnesota. McCain also wins Arkansas while Biden will win the Overall State of Maine + 1st Congressional District.

Curious what happens in the Washington Governor Race assuming Gregoire and Rossi are running against each other like in the OTL.

I also think that the Wisconsin Senate Race will be a lot closer compared to the OTL due to McCain carrying the State.

On the flip side , Arkansas is also a tossup, West Virginia is Lean D and even before Rockefeller was picked was a tossup, and KY is Lean R instead of Safe R so some of the trends that happened in the OTL Bush years are different here.



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« Reply #351 on: July 14, 2021, 08:20:04 PM »

I am not posting a Map but I'll say this: McCain will win easily.
 
However having Washinton & Oregon as Toss Ups is a little bit too optimistic on your behalf.

Biden will win PA, NJ, McCain will win OH. McCain will also win Iowa, Michigan & Wisconsin and Biden will win Minnesota. McCain also wins Arkansas while Biden will win the Overall State of Maine + 1st Congressional District.

Curious what happens in the Washington Governor Race assuming Gregoire and Rossi are running against each other like in the OTL.

I also think that the Wisconsin Senate Race will be a lot closer compared to the OTL due to McCain carrying the State.

On the flip side , Arkansas is also a tossup, West Virginia is Lean D and even before Rockefeller was picked was a tossup, and KY is Lean R instead of Safe R so some of the trends that happened in the OTL Bush years are different here.




The KEY over the next two years will be how McCain will handle "Hurricane Katrina" and it's Aftermath. Bush did very bad handling it and lost a lot of trust to the American Public resulting in low Approvals as the 2006 Midterms approached.
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« Reply #352 on: July 15, 2021, 12:57:50 AM »

CNN: Election Night in America 2004(Exit Polls)



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rchmoqssrQw&t=0s

Blitzer: Welcome to CNN's coverage of the 2004 election , I am Wolf Blitzer and thank you for joining us in what is shaping up to be an exciting night. We are a little more than 10 minutes away from the 7 PM poll closings and before we reveal our exit poll we can report that President McCain will carry the state of Indiana where most of its precients closed its polls at 6 PM tonight and Kentucky at this moment is too early to call



McCain 11
Biden 0


Blitzer: Now lets go over to Bill Schnider to see what our exit poll is saying

Schnider: Before we reveal our exit poll I want to remind folks that before you take your calculator out to see what its saying, that these are still polls meaning there is a margin of error in them, and also just cause you win the National vote doesnt neccessarly mean you will win the election as you need to win the electoral college for that. So here are the exit polls


Detailed Exit Poll Results:

Race:

White: 77% ; McCain 59% Biden 40%
African American: 11% ; Biden 87% McCain 12%
Hispanic: 8% ; Biden 55% McCain 44%
Asian 2% ; McCain 51% Biden 48%
Other 2% ; Biden 56% McCain 43%

Gender:

Male: 47% ; McCain 54% Biden 45%
Female: 53% ; McCain 50% Biden 49%

Age:
 
18-29: 17% ; McCain 51% Biden 48%
30-44: 29% ; McCain 54% Biden 45%
45-59: 30% ; McCain 52% Biden 47%
60+: 24% ; McCain 51% Biden 48%

Income:

0-30k : 22% ; Biden 58% McCain 41%
30k-50k : 22% ; McCain 52% Biden 47%
50k -100k : 38% ; McCain 56% Biden 43%
100k+ : 18% ; McCain 58% Biden 41%

Schinder: What we see from this exit poll is that race, or gender has played significantly less of a role in this election than it did in previous, and age looks like has almost no role either. For example the gender gap which for the past 20 years seemingly had become worse and worse , significantly narrowed this year with the President only doing 4 points better with Men than he did with women.


Blitzer: Ok we will be taking a break right now but will come back at the top of the 7 PM poll closing
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« Reply #353 on: July 15, 2021, 08:35:41 PM »
« Edited: July 16, 2021, 12:15:38 PM by Old School Republican »

CNN: Election Night in America 2004(Part 1)



7:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rchmoqssrQw&t=0s

Blitzer: If you are just joining us, we are about to get through our first round of poll closings and CNN now can now project President McCain will carry the states of Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia, and New Hampshire while Senator Biden will carry the New England state of Vermont. We are currently unable to make projections in Kentucky and Florida



McCain 51
Biden 3

Blitzer: None of these were any surprise and were expected but at this very early hour President McCain has a 51 to 3 lead in the electoral vote. Now lets go over to Anderson Cooper to get some projections in key races for the Senate

Cooper: CNN can currently project that Florida Governor Jeb Bush will be the winner in Florida Senate Race, Former Attorney General Lindsey Graham will be the winner in the South Carolina senate race and Former State Representative and Niece to Martin Luther King Jr, Alveda King will be the winner in the Georgia Senate race. That win will make her only the 3rd African American elected to the Senate since reconstruction and also gives the Republicans so far a net gain of 3 seats .

Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Florida
Georgia

Lousiana
North Carolina
South Carolina
South Dakota
Wisconsin

Seats Currently Held By Republicans:

Colorado
Illinois
Kentucky

Cooper: Now it is very possible these are the only 3 seats the Republicans pick up tonight because the rest of the seats on the battleground board will be much tougher and these 3 wins again have been expected for a long time .

Blitzer: So Jeff any surprises so far

Greenfield: No but it will be interesting to see in Virginia if Democrats can manage to pull out a win in Fairfax county or not because if they can it could put some more house seats in play in the future and potentially a decade from now be able to seriously contest the state in Presidential races.



7:30

Blitzer: The polls have closed in 3 states and right now we are unable to make projects in Ohio , North Carolina or in West Virginia but we are able to project Kentucky and itís 8 electoral votes will be won tonight by John McCain



McCain 59
Biden 3

Blitzer: In Florida currently President McCain holds a lead which is good news for him in that state given the Republican areas in the panhandle dont close their polls until 8 PM. Now lets go to Anderson for senate results

Cooper: Yes and that is in Kentucky , the Republican Senator Jim Bunning is currently trailing his Democratic rival by 3 points with a little more than 80% of the precincts in which is definitely bad news for him there.

King: A win in that senate seat would also probably put 60 completely out of reach given the Republican candidates are trailing in the polls in Illinois or Wisconsin states that are less Republican than Kentucky.

7:52:

Blitzer: CNN now is able to make a projection in two more states and that is the  President  will carry North Carolina as expected while Senator Biden will carry his running mate's home state of West Virginia and its 5 electoral votes



McCain 74
Biden 8

King: So far nothing has been surprising but we have a long way to go

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« Reply #354 on: July 17, 2021, 11:10:53 PM »
« Edited: July 18, 2021, 06:06:03 PM by Old School Republican »

CNN: Election Night in America 2004(Part 2)



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rchmoqssrQw&t=0s

Blitzer: Its 8 PM in the East and we can project the President will carry the states of Alabama, Mississippi,  Missouri, Kansas , Oklahoma, and a huge one in Texas while Senator Biden will carry the states of Massachusetts, Connecticut, Deleware, Maryland , the District of Columbia , and a big one in Illinois . We are currently unable to make projections in the states of Maine,  New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Tennessee. With these projections, this is how the map currently looks



McCain: 147
Biden: 64

Blitzer: In Florida right now the President is extending his lead but we are still waiting for more of South Florida to come in before we make a projection there. Now lets give it Anderson for some updates about the congressional races

Cooper: First we have some breaking news to report to you

Breaking News: Republicans to retain the House of Representatives

Cooper: We also believe Republicans will at the end of the night have between 237 and 250 house seats and before any Democrats panic , remember top Democratic strategists expected to lose a couple house seats even in the case where Joe Biden wins tonight and this projection means Democrats lose between 0 to 13 seats which is what the experts going into election day expected the range to be around.

Now in the Senate the polls have closed in Illinois and we are unable to project a winner though the exit polls do show the Democrat, Barack Obama having the advantage but we will wait an hour or so before making a judgement here as we believe thats when key precincts will come in . In Kentucky, the Republican Senator Jim Bunning is trailing with now 85% in so its getting less likely for him to comeback though its not all over just yet. Heres the key senate races board before we send it back to Wolf

Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Florida
Georgia

Lousiana
North Carolina
South Carolina
South Dakota
Wisconsin

Seats Currently Held By Republicans:

Colorado
Illinois
Kentucky

Blitzer: So the polls have closed in the Big 4 , so Jeff what do you make

Greenfield: Well there isnt much to make right now as the polls just closed in 3 of them and in Ohio really only the Democratic areas have come in yet so its not representative but Id like the audience to remember these Big 4 states are critical for Senator Biden as he must win all 4 of those states: New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan to have any realistic path at the White House while the President still has a pathways he can take while losing all 4 of them albeit very narrow as no Republican has ever won without Ohio going back all the way to 1856.


8:30:


Blitzer: CNN can now project that President McCain will carry Florida and all its 27 electoral votes as well as Tennessee . We are unable to make a project in Arkansas at the moment



McCain: 185
Biden: 64

Blitzer: Now lets head over to our guests James Carville and Mary Matalin for their analysis of the night so far. So James what is your reaction so far


Carville: Well right now the results have pretty much confirmed what the polls have been saying but at the same time its predominantly been in the South and North East so I dont think its over at this moment although the path is narrowing

Matalin: Well I think even in the midwest the results are confirming the pre election polls , as just look at Indiana and while Indiana is more Republican than the rest of the Midwest its still Midwestern

Carville: Well Democrats didnt put much into Indiana but what I can say I am liking is the numbers so far in places like West Virginia and Eastern Kentucky as if he can put up those numbers in Western Pennsylvania I think he is in good shape there and if he can do the same in South East Ohio I think Senator Biden has a chance of an upset there.

Matalin: South East Ohio has shown a history of being more Republican than the rest of the region though and so far the numbers in Ohio show that as well although its very early


8:47:


Cooper : We are now able to make a projection in the Kentucky senate race and that is the Democrat Daniel Mongiardo will defeat incumbent Republican senator Jim Bunning to become the next senator of that state . As you can see on the key  senate races board , the Republicans canít afford to lose a single seat now if they want to get to 60 and as you can see they currently Trail in Illinois and North Carolina .

Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Florida
Georgia

Lousiana
North Carolina
South Carolina
South Dakota
Wisconsin

Seats Currently Held By Republicans:

Colorado
Illinois
Kentucky


King : I donít think republicans will get to 60 at this point . One thing I want to point out is in Texas the Democrats seem to be winning Dallas County which democrats are hoping is a sign that the slide that state party has being going through for the past decade has finally bottomed out and they can then win back a few state legislative seats and potentially win some state wide races if the Republican candidate is very unpopular.

Greenfield : yes itís not gonna be competitive at the federal level for the forseeable future but Texas democrats are hoping that if someone like a Chet Edwards runs for governor in 2006 they can defeat a Republican in Rick Perry who can be potentially vulnerable given he isnít that popular and Mr.Edwards by all means would he considered a very strong candidate:


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« Reply #355 on: July 18, 2021, 07:01:27 PM »

CNN: Election Night in America 2004(Part 3)



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rchmoqssrQw&t=0s

Blitzer: Its 9 PM in the east and we can project the President will carry the states of Lousiana, Nebraska, North and South Dakota, Wyoming and his home state of Arizona while Senator Biden will carry the states of New York and Rhode Island along with getting 1 electoral vote in Maine . We are currently unable to make projections in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado or New Mexico.

So far in the battlegrounds , Senator Biden currently holds a pretty big lead in Pennsylvania though thats with not much Republican areas in, is slightly trailing in Michigan though not much is yet in Wayne , while Senator McCain leads currently by 3 points in Ohio, and its basically a tie in New Jersey.



McCain: 218
Biden: 100

Now lets give it to Anderson for some senate calls

Cooper: Yes CNN at the moment is able to project that the Democrat Barack Obama will defeat Republican Senator Peter Fitzgerlad and will be the next Senator of that state. Currently we are unable to make a projection in Lousiana, South Dakota, or Wiscosnin though we do know that Republican Bobby Jindal will win a plurality in Lousiana and the only question is will he win a majority as that is what you need to avoid a runoff in December.

Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Florida
Georgia

Lousiana
North Carolina
South Carolina
South Dakota
Wisconsin

Seats Currently Held By Republicans:

Colorado
Illinois
Kentucky

Cooper: This means the Republicans will not be able to hit the elusive 60 senate seat number tonight and the way these races are looking 58 likely will be the maximum they can hit tonight which is still impressive though bills can still be theoretically filibustered with that majority although it will be hard to do so.


King: What this does mean is tonight we will have elected two African Americans to the senate and that is huge cause if you remember prior to tonight we only had two African Americans elected to the senate in total since reconstruction so tonight we are breaking all sorts of barriers. As for the Presidential race , at this point Id say at this point if Senator Biden wins it would be an even bigger comeback than the Red Sox coming back from 3-0 down.

Shaw: Even if Senator Biden does lose though and its not over yet given none of the big 4 have been projected yet, it does look like hed do better than any losing opponent to an incumbent president than anyone in the past 100 years other than Charles Hughes in 1916 and maybe Thomas Dewey in 1948 .

Schnieder: Keep in mind that beating an elected president is very tough espicially after only one term for their as in the past 100 years the only time a party was ejected from the white house after one term was the Democrats in 1980 so that shows you how tough of a hill Senator Biden would have to climb to win and it does look like he is on track of doing better than all but one or maybe two candidates.


9:27:

Blitzer: CNN can now project Senator Biden will win the state of Maine but that the President will win one of the states 4 electoral votes as well.



McCain: 219
Biden: 102

Blitzer: Bill what are we seeing in key areas in the Big 4 right now

Schnider: If you pull up the state of Pennsylvania, while you can see that the President is winning places like Bucks county and is within 4 points in Montogmery county, Senator Biden as made that up due to much stronger performance in places like Lackawanna County, Luzerne County which was a county the President won 4 years ago and in the Southwestern part in Allegheny and all across SW PA so as of this moment id definitely say Senator Biden is favored in his birth state of Pennslyvania. In Ohio if you look at the swing map you can see the President is actually doing better than he did 4 years ago in the central and southwest part of the state which is making up , and isnt doing that much worse in Eastern Ohio and if this holds its hard to see him losing the state.


9:48:

Cooper: We have another senate call we can make and that is Democratic Senator and the runner up in this years primaries Russ Feingold has been reelected in Wisconsin.

Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Florida
Georgia

Lousiana
North Carolina
South Carolina
South Dakota
Wisconsin

Seats Currently Held By Republicans:

Colorado
Illinois
Kentucky

Cooper: In the other races up Senator Edwards is still leading in North Carolina though his lead is been dropping with more Republican areas coming in, while in Colorado the Republican Pete Coors is ahead though in that state the more Democratic areas are yet to come in , and lastly in South Dakota the Senate Leader for the Democrats, Tom Dashale is basically tied with Republican John Thune.

Blitzer: Hold we have major projection to make right now and that is that the President of the United States will carry Ohio and its 20 major electoral votes . A sigh of relief for the Democrats though is CNN now is also able to project that Senator Joe Biden will carry his birth state of Pennslyvania and its 21 major electoral votes



McCain: 239
Biden: 123

So Bill why were we able to call these two states

Schinder: According to someone in the Decision Desk due to the fact that while Senator Biden has improved in Eastern Ohio its not by much as remember this is a state the President won by over 5 points in 2000 and the huge swings required to flip that state just werent there. On the other hand in Pennsylvania, we are seeing Senator Biden is getting the swings required in both the Scranton and Pittsburgh areas and not losing that much from Al Gore in the Philadelphia suburbs to flip that state and win it by around 2 points when all the ballots are counted.


Blitzer: Ok Jeff is the win though in Pennsylvania all for moot due to the loss in Ohio or can Senator Biden still win.


Greenfield: Well if we pull of the what if worksheet, and for the sake of argument assign the President all the rest of these interior Western states and the state of Alaska we can see that President McCain would be reelected with 273 but remember Nevada and New Mexico were states we are only leaning McCain so if Senator Biden can flip either of those states it would drop the President below 270 to 268 and then if he runs the table Senator Biden would win 270 to 268 so no its not fully over but he cannot win without winning one of these lean South Western states at this point.
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« Reply #356 on: July 20, 2021, 01:10:31 AM »

CNN: Election Night in America 2004(Part 4)



10:00

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rchmoqssrQw&t=0s

Blitzer: Its 10 PM in the east and CNN can now project the President will carry the states of Utah, Idaho , Montana and also carry the state of Colorado. The polls have also just closed in Iowa and Nevada but we are currently unable to make a projection in either state so far




McCain: 260
Biden: 123

Blitzer: Currently the President holds a lead in New Jersey though as you can see its basically a tie, holds a lead in Michigan but again large parts of Wayne still are to come in and his lead is continuing to drop there, holds a 4 point lead in Wisconsin though much of Milwaukee still has yet to report and holds a narrow lead in Minnesota. In Arkansas currently Senator Biden leads by 1 point with 80% in but there is still, of course, a long way to go there and in New Mexico the President currently holds a 6 point lead but less than 50% of the vote has come in so we cant make a projection there yet. Now lets so over to Anderson for a major call


Breaking News: Republicans Retain Control of the United States Senate

Cooper: CNN is now able to project that the Republicans will indeed retain control of the Senate as we can now project Republicans will hold senate seats in Iowa, Idaho and Utah which will mean at the very least they will have at least 53 seats in the senate next year which is more than enough for a majority. In our key senate race battleground we are unable to still make projections but as we can see not much as changed with Mr.Coors still holding a narrow lead in Colorado, Senate Minority Leader Dashale basically tied and Senator Edwards narrowly ahead. 


Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Florida
Georgia

Lousiana
North Carolina
South Carolina
South Dakota
Wisconsin

Seats Currently Held By Republicans:

Colorado
Illinois
Kentucky

King: Now joining are two former rivals of the President : Former Vice President Gore and Senator George W Bush. Before we get your thoughts on the presidential races, what are your thoughts on your brother now becoming your collegue in the Senate and are their any differences between the two of you


Bush: I am very excited that I will have the opportunity to work with my Brother in the Senate and I know he will make the state of Florida proud . While we arenít exactly alike , we both are strong supporters of the presidentís agenda of a strong defense , taking the fight to the enemy , and making our government more efficient and less fat and look forward to working with the president the next 4 years .


King : Vice President Gore , what are your thoughts on the election so far

Gore: I am obviously disappointed about the results so far but I am not surprised given how difficult is is to defeat incumbent presidents and given that Americans dont like to change leadership in times like this. I think though Senator Biden did a fantastic job in this campaign as he was able to bring many important issues that have not been discussed for many years into the spotlight which is important because just cause those issues have not been discussed over the past few years does not mean they dont exist. This means even if the results go as they are trending which is President McCain gets reelected, he will have to address the issues brought up by Senator Biden in the campaign so even though it does look like Senator Biden will lose , I believe he has done a great job as an opposing candidate which is to bring up issues that have not been addressed over the past 4 years.

King: Senator Bush do you agree with the Former Vice President here that if President McCain gets reelected, both him and Republicans in congress have to adresses the issues brought up in the campaign.

Bush: I agree with Vice President Gore than Senator Biden ran an honorable campaign and if indeed the President gets reelected, I also do look forward with working with Senator Biden in a biparitisan way of addressing some of the issues he brought up in the camapign.

King: Ok Final Question do the both of you plan to run 4 years from now

Bush: Well it is way to early to say and I when the time comes I will have to discuss that question with my family and that includes my brother cause I can promise you that you wont see a field 3 years from now that includes both of us together as candidates.


Gore: It is too early to say but all I have to say is it would definitely be amusing to see you up on stage with your brother in a Republican primary debate

Bush: I can tell you Mr Vice President that it Wont Happen


10:42

Blitzer: CNN Can now project that President McCain will carry the state of New Mexico and its 5 electoral votes. As you can see the President just needs one of these outstandings states to win the Presidency and he currently holds leads in New Jersey, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and over a 5 point lead in Nevada while Senator Biden has a lead in Iowa though not much has come in, just taken the lead in Michigan, and is tied with the president in Arkansas.




McCain: 265
Biden: 123


Schnider: People in the audience may be asking why we havent called Nevada yet, and the reason is a win in Nevada would not only be a projection for one state but for the whole presidential race and for those reason we want to be slightly more cautious here but if things hold up, someone at our decision desk said we should be able to call it the top of next hour, but lets wait for now.


Greenfield: I think thats defintely smart to do and also polls are still open in the west coast so waiting till the top of the hour gives people the full time needed to vote. I do think though this is a huge night for the President and the Republican party as not only are they almost certainly going to win the White House and expand their majorities in both houses of congress meaning they can get a lot done from : education to tort reform to immigration and many other pieces of legislation


Woodruff: The Republicans though will not have more than 58 seats , so Democrats will retain the ability to filibuster certian legislation but I agree that its a huge night


Greenfield: It depends in my opinion on what they try to do cause if they try to go after entitlements like many conservatives want to do , then yes they wont have the numbers to pass it because the Democrats no matter what wing they are from: Conservative, Liberal , Moderate, Populist they all oppose conservative Republicans on this issue and would fight them tooth and nail so if the President tries that it probably would fail. I dont think he will though


Blizer: Ok we will be back after a short break
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« Reply #357 on: July 20, 2021, 08:01:24 PM »

Funny conversation between Al Gore and George W. Bush.
I think 2008 will be between a Bush and a Clinton yet again and the Bush Family has a terrible Track Record running against a Clinton. Hillary will become the First Female President in this TL!
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« Reply #358 on: July 20, 2021, 08:24:16 PM »

Funny conversation between Al Gore and George W. Bush.
I think 2008 will be between a Bush and a Clinton yet again and the Bush Family has a terrible Track Record running against a Clinton. Hillary will become the First Female President in this TL!

Yeah, but if OSR makes Hillary win he'll kill her off in 2012.
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« Reply #359 on: July 21, 2021, 01:57:29 AM »

CNN: Election Night in America 2004(Part 4)



11:00

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rchmoqssrQw&t=0s

Blitzer: Its 11 in the East and stand by as we have a major projection to make

Breaking News: John McCain Reelected President of the United States


Blitzer: CNN Can Now Project that John McCain will be Reelected as President of the United States and will be in the White House for another 4 years. The reason we can make that projection is CNN can now project that the President will carry the state of Nevada which will bump his electoral vote tally from 265 to 270 which is exactly the number a candidate needs to win an election. Now polls have also closed in the West and we can now project that Senator Biden will carry the states of California and Hawaii while we cant make a projection currently in the pacific northwest states of Oregon and Washington.



McCain: 270
Biden: 182

Blitzer: So Mary what is your reaction to this result

Matalin: It is a great result and about what I expected with the President getting reelected and with the Republicans gaining seats in both houses of congress where it looks like we are on track to have the most house seats we have had since 1946 and potentially 1928 and with the senate the most we have had since 1928 so I think this is a huge win for us and the Democrats will have to reasses things as this result didnt appear our of no where as the party has really been falling since 1980.

Carville: Well I am disappointed with the result but I am not surprised by this at all but I think we should be quick before overreacting. Senator Biden is on track to win not only more electoral votes than Bob Dole did but also Thomas Dewey did back in 1948 which is an election everyone calls close. I think the fact is it is very difficult to unseat an incumbent in times like this and thats what this election showed.

Matalin: The Democrats are in denial when they make comments like this cause while yes Joe Biden will win more electoral votes than Bob Dole did, remember in 1996 our party won both houses of congress and actually made gains in the senate so I think for the party as a whole this is the worse for them then 1996 was for us . Also Democrats have been making excuses for failure seems like every time they lose a election:  back in 1972 they claimed while yes we lost we still won both houses of congress, in 1984 they said yes while we lost the White House and Senate at least we won the house and tonight they are saying while yes we lost everything , Joe Biden at least won more electoral votes than other losers. I want to point out one fact and that is since the end of WW2 , there has been only won period where a party had the trifecta for longer than the Republicans will have it now and that is the Democrats from 1961-1969 and id say we probably will at least match it

Carville: I am not saying our party doenst have some problems but Im just saying it cant be blamed on Senator Biden as I think he ran a pretty good campaign in just a year that would be extremely difficult for everyone to win. As for the state of our party I believe the party will have to reassess things given we very likely will be in the worst shape we have been in congress since 1946 and maybe 1928 so that does call for some reassessments.

Cooper: Hold on cause we have a couple of senate calls we can make and that is CNN can now project Senator John Edwards will be reelected in North Carolina and in Colorado we can project the Republican Pete Coors will be the next senator of that state. This means Republicans will hold anywhere from 55 to 57 senate seats next year , and in the two outstanding battlegrounds the Republicans are winning so far. In the House we believe Republicans will win anywhere from 244 to 248 seats tonight

Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Florida
Georgia

Lousiana
North Carolina
South Carolina
South Dakota
Wisconsin

Seats Currently Held By Republicans:

Colorado
Illinois
Kentucky

Woodruff: Hold on as we have some breaking news and that is Senator Biden has called President McCain to concede the election.

Greenfield: Its not a surprise as there is pretty much no mathematical chance that would put them in recount territory in any of the states won by the President so far .


11:47:

Blitzer: CNN can now project that President McCain will carry the state of Wisconsin while Senator Biden will carry the state of Michigan



McCain: 280
Biden: 199

Blitzer: So Bill would you say this election has changed the nature of politics in anyway

Schnider: Well one major thing Id say that has changed is the fact that Republicans have basically doubled there share among Hispanic voters in the past 8 years which has once again put states like Nevada and New Mexico that had become swing states in the Clinton years back to Republican states , but another thing is the dramatic narrowing of the gender gap and the narrowing of the age gap. Usually in most elections, Democrats do well with young and old voters while Republicans do well with middle aged voters and while thats true to a certian extent in this election, its clear that gap as clearly declined. So I would say a Democratic path to victory in 2008 might have to put together a different coalition than they traditionally do, and what that path is we cant really say yet


Blitzer: Senator Biden is about to give his concession speech so lets give you an update on the outstanding states before we head to Deleware: first in Arkansas the Senator has just taken a slight lead there , in New Jersey the President leads by half a percentage point, in Minnesota leads by 1 point , in Iowa has just taken the lead. Oregon and Washington are way to early to make any judgement at this moment so now lets go over to Deleware to here Senator Biden concession speech
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« Reply #360 on: July 21, 2021, 10:45:43 AM »

Looks like Biden will get at least a consolation prize tonight by getting over 200 Electoral Votes. That seems to be doable as I don't think he will lose every outstanding State left.

Kerry got 252 in 2004 in the OTL but McCain is more popular than George W. Bush so McCain getting close to 300 makes sense here.
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« Reply #361 on: July 22, 2021, 01:26:54 AM »

CNN: Election Night in America 2004(Part 5)



Biden's Concession Speech:



Source: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/happened-times-joe-biden-deciding-run-president/story?id=34605046

Biden: A short while ago I called President McCain to congratulate him on his reelection victory and told him I look forward to working with him to unify our nation after a hard fought campaign and then work with him over the next 4 years to address the issues facing our nation(Applause). Losing an election is never easy but we must respect the verdict of the American people and that means rooting for the person they elected to be successfull which is why I ask all of us to root for President McCain's success over the next 4 years because his success will be all our country's success and that if more important than whether your party won or lost an election(Applause).

I want to thank all of you for your hard work during the campaign both in the primaries and general election as I wouldnt have come nearly as close as this without all of your hard work(Applause). I also want to thank my running mate Jay Rockefeller for running a great camapign and I look forward to working with my good friend over the next 4 years in the senate to help make our nation a better place(Applause) . Also I want to advise whoever our 2008 nominee is , you should pick Jay Rockefeller as your running mate cause hed make a great Vice President(Applause) unless of course he himself is our nominee(Laughing) in which case he would be a great President(Applause). Anyway thank all of you again for your support and may god Bless You and May God Bless America(Applause).


Blitzer: As Senator Biden was giving his concession speech the polls closed in Alaska and we can project the state of Alaska will be won by the President.




McCain: 283
Biden: 199


Blitzer : So what did you think of Senator Bidenís concession speech


Greenfield: I thought it was gracious and also a type of speech that fit his personality really well . To me though the question is if assuming Senate Minority leader Tom Dashale goes down to defeat , could democrats name Joe Biden as their Senate leader given he has 32 years of experience in the senate plus he now is the most high profile democratic senator in the country with the possible exception of Hillary Clinton . The reason for that is Senator Biden did bring up issues regarding the economy that helped the democrats in this election and making him their senate leader could give the party the ability to potentially force the president and the republicans to address those issues .


Schneider : Itís hard to say as Biden has always fit the committee chair position better than senate majority leader but if he wants to run for it , it would be hard for me to see how he wouldnít be elected to the position. The question again though is would he want it cause itís not a really policy shaping role as  people think and instead you could potentially see him become the democratic leader of the budget committee or something.


Shaw: I think it was definitely a gracious speech and maybe getting over 200 electoral votes could mean he could make the case that he should be able to run again in 2008. While itís unlikely , senator Biden definitely has a case to make to democrats next time that he should be the nominee again .


Blitzer : Ok now letís head over to Phoenix where President McCain will be giving his victory speech


McCainís Victory Speech




McCain : A short while ago , I spoke with senator Biden who congratulated us on our victory and I congratulated him for running a great campaign and let him know that I look forward to working with him over the next 4 years to make our nation a better place(Applause). We may not agree on how to fix many of the issues discussed in the campaign but we agree that they do need to be fixed and as President, it is my responsibility to do so and I will try my best every day for the next 4 years to do so(Applause). There is nothing we cant do when we tackle issues as a united nation as we have shown throughout our history and over the past few years and will continue to show for the foreseeable future(Applause).

I want to thank all the people who have worked on this campaign and those who supported me as tonight would not have been possible without your hard work and support(Applause). I want to thank my family who this would not be possible with as well for their support throughout my tenure in the senate and through all the difficult moments in the white house for the next 4 years(Applause) as you really helped me get through them(Applause). Thank You May God Bless You, May God Bless our Troops and may God Bless America(Applause).

Blitzer: The President tried to stress the unity theme a lot in his acceptance speech, do you think that was what was needed

Schnider: Absolutely as if you think about it even in the greatest landslides in our history 38% of the nation voted for the losing candidate which is a lot of Americans so it is very important for the winning candidate to try to stress the unity theme especially in a time of war when its needed

Woodruff : I agree cause if you look at it, if you want the other side to give you a chance then you need to show that you can be humble and gracious and the President did in fact do that tonight.

Blitzer: Ok we will be back after a short break


12:48:

Blitzer: CNN Can now project that President McCain will carry the state of Minnesota and its 10 electoral votes while Senator Biden will carry the state of Arkansas and its 6 electoral votes. In the 4 outstanding states the President currently holds a lead in New Jersey by half a point, Iowa by a point and a half, Oregon by over 4 points but remember much of Portland has to come in so that number will likely drop and the same is true in Washington where the President is up by less than a point but remember a good deal of Seattle is yet to come in.





McCain: 293
Biden: 205
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« Reply #362 on: July 22, 2021, 02:47:48 AM »

CNN: Election Night in America 2004(Rest of Results)



1:00:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rchmoqssrQw&t=0s

Cooper: In the gubernatorial races so far CNN can project that the Republicans will pick up seats in Deleware where Republican candidate Bob Lee will defeat the Democratic Ruth Minner, in Indiana where Republican Sue Gilroy will defeat the Democratic Governor Joe Kernan and now in Washington where Republican Dino Rossi will defeat Democratic candidate Christine Gregoire while Democrats will pick up a seat in Montana where Democratic candidate Jon Tester will defeat Republican Bob Brown and will hold the seat in Missouri as Democratic Candidate  Claire McCaskil will defeat Republican candidate Matt Blunt.

This means the Republicans will pick up two gubernatorial seats tonight.


1:33:

Blitzer: We can now project President John McCain will carry the state of Oregon and its 7 electoral votes just like he did 4 years ago and he will also carry the state of Iowa and its 7 electoral votes again which means he now will go above the 300 electoral vote mark tonight.



McCain: 307
Biden: 205


Greenfield: So the President has reached his goal of getting to the over 300 mark and at this point looks like will probably get over 320 as well


2:35:

Cooper: CNN can now project that Republican Bobby Jindal will get over the 50% mark in Lousiana thus avoiding to runoff and will be the next senator of that state as well as the first Indian-American to be elected to the senate as well. Also this means the Republicans will for certain have their largest Senate Majority since 1928 and if they win the last outstanding house race will have their last majority in that chamber too.

Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Florida
Georgia

Lousiana
North Carolina
South Carolina
South Dakota
Wisconsin

Seats Currently Held By Republicans:

Colorado
Illinois
Kentucky


Woodruff : This election has broken all sorts of barriers in terms of the senate with two African Americans elected to the senate given the fact that we only had elected two prior African American senator since reconstruction and now the first Indian American senator

Schneider : Yes it has and it looks like more and more barriers will be broken over the upcoming years which will further show how open our nation has become and how far we have come since the days of Jim Crow .


3:37

Blitzer: We are now able to project the state of New Jersey will be won by President McCain while the state of Washington will be won by Senator Biden both marking flips from four years ago . As you can see the  final electoral count for this election will be President John McCain who will win 322 electoral votes vs Senator Joe Biden who will win 216 electoral votes .



McCain: 322
Biden: 216


Blitzer: now letís go over to Anderson for our final senate call

Cooper  : CNN can now project in South Dakota that Senate Minority Leader Tom Dashale will go down to defeat to Republican John Thune making it the first time since 1952 a party leader will be defeated in a re-election bid . This means the Republicans will pick up a net of 3 seats in the senate and will control 57 senate seats in the next congress

Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Florida
Georgia

Lousiana
North Carolina
South Carolina
South Dakota
Wisconsin

Seats Currently Held By Republicans:

Colorado
Illinois
Kentucky

Cooper : Also in the house we can project the republicans will win the last outstanding seat meaning they will win a total of 247 House seats tonight meaning they will have Their largest house majority since 1928 as well .


Blitzer : Ok that does it for CNNís coverage of the 2004 election and we shall see you at our regular scheduled programming for analysis of this years election . 
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« Reply #363 on: July 22, 2021, 12:12:21 PM »

My only nitpick is Minnesota, I just feel like if McCain isnít winning Michigan he wonít win Minnesota either otherwise itís fine
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« Reply #364 on: July 22, 2021, 01:48:07 PM »

My only nitpick is Minnesota, I just feel like if McCain isnít winning Michigan he wonít win Minnesota either otherwise itís fine

MI barely voted to the right of MN in OTL and I feel that McCain is a better fit for MN than Bush was due to being more socially moderate while in MI I think its more of a mixed bag plus MI was already struggling a lot economically even while the rest of the nation was doing alright.

That is why I decided here to have McCain win MN but not MI
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« Reply #365 on: July 22, 2021, 01:55:01 PM »

Well, time for 2008!
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« Reply #366 on: July 22, 2021, 02:40:56 PM »

The senate definitely doesnít look too great for Dems, going into 2006, even if they win all the seats they did IOTL, thatís still a 50/50 split if my math is correct, so theyíd probably have to pick up the seat in Tennessee as well, possible but definitely a tall order considering McCain is more popular than Bush.
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« Reply #367 on: July 22, 2021, 02:43:00 PM »

The senate definitely doesnít look too great for Dems, going into 2006, even if they flip all the seats they did IOTL, thatís still a 50/50 split, so theyíd probably have to pick up the seat in Tennessee as well, possible but definitely a tall order considering McCain is more popular than Bush.
Actually, its a 51-49 R split if the 2006 Senate elections in this timeline are the same as irl.
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« Reply #368 on: July 22, 2021, 02:47:29 PM »

The senate definitely doesnít look too great for Dems, going into 2006, even if they flip all the seats they did IOTL, thatís still a 50/50 split, so theyíd probably have to pick up the seat in Tennessee as well, possible but definitely a tall order considering McCain is more popular than Bush.
Actually, its a 51-49 R split if the 2006 Senate elections in this timeline are the same as irl.
Jim Jeffords didnít switch here though iirc, so if Sanders wins that seat itís a flip, unless thereís another discrepancy Iím missing.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #369 on: July 22, 2021, 03:07:06 PM »

The senate definitely doesnít look too great for Dems, going into 2006, even if they flip all the seats they did IOTL, thatís still a 50/50 split, so theyíd probably have to pick up the seat in Tennessee as well, possible but definitely a tall order considering McCain is more popular than Bush.
Actually, its a 51-49 R split if the 2006 Senate elections in this timeline are the same as irl.
Jim Jeffords didnít switch here though iirc, so if Sanders wins that seat itís a flip, unless thereís another discrepancy Iím missing.

They flipped 6 seats in OTL so if they flip those seats along with VT it would be a 50-50 senate.

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« Reply #370 on: July 22, 2021, 03:27:44 PM »

Changes from OTL in Class I:
Going into 2006, Republicans hold MI (Abraham), NJ (Franks), WA (Gorton) and Democrats hold MT (Schweitzer). I forget if anything different happened with MO and VT.
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« Reply #371 on: July 23, 2021, 12:24:11 AM »

Changes from OTL in Class I:
Going into 2006, Republicans hold MI (Abraham), NJ (Franks), WA (Gorton) and Democrats hold MT (Schweitzer). I forget if anything different happened with MO and VT.

MO is the same as OTL while in VT Jeffords stayed a Republican.

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Old School Republican
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« Reply #372 on: July 23, 2021, 01:31:04 AM »
« Edited: July 23, 2021, 01:36:10 AM by Old School Republican »

2004 Election Results:

Presidential Election Results:



President John McCain(R-AZ)/Vice President John Danforth(R-MO) 322 52%
Senator Joe Biden(D-DE)/Senator Jay Rockefeller(D-WV) 216 47.1%


States decided by Less than 5 Points:

New Jersey: McCain 49.7% Biden 49.4%
Arkansas: Biden 49.9% McCain 49.4%
Washington: Biden 49.8% McCain 49.1%
Minnesota: McCain 50% Biden 49.1%
Michigan: Biden 50.1% McCain 48.9%
Pennsylvania: Biden 50.5% McCain 48.6%
Oregon: McCain 50.5% Biden 48.3%
Iowa: McCain 50.7% Biden 48.2%
Wisconsin:McCain 50.9% Biden 48.2%
Maine: Biden 51.3% McCain 47.6%
Ohio: McCain 51.8% Biden 47.5% - Tipping Point

States Decided by 5-10 Points:

New Mexico: McCain 52.1% Biden 47%
Nevada: McCain 52.5% Biden 46.7%
Hawaii: Biden 52.4% McCain 46.5%
Kentucky: McCain 52.8% Biden 46.4%
California: Biden 52.7% McCain 46.2%
West Virginia: Biden 53.1% McCain 46.1%
Florida: McCain 53.2% Biden 45.9%
Illionis: Biden 53.5% McCain 45.6%
Connecticut: Biden 54.2% McCain 44.9%
Tenneesse: McCain 54.4% Biden 44.6%

Senate Election Results:



Republicans: 57(+3)
Democrats: 43(-3)


House of Representatives:

Republicans: 247(+10)
Democrats: 188(-10)

Note: Bernie Sanders included in Dem number despite being an independent


Gubernatorial Results:




Republicans pickup 2 seats



What does this election mean for President McCain and the Republican agenda over the next 4 years:

Woodruff: With the President getting reelected and Republicans increasing their majorities in both houses, what does this mean for their agenda over the next few years.

Schnider: With an increased majority the President and the Republicans will try to push through parts of their agenda they didnt over the past 4 such as Tort Reform, Tax Reform for Businesses and Corporations, and School Vouchers at a national level but they also have to be careful cause while yes they have large majorities they dont have filibuster-proof ones meaning if they try to do something that is deeply opposed by every faction of the Democratic party such as Entitlement reform it likely will fail.

Also one of the test the President will face is the fact that he very likely will have to replace Chief Justice William Rehnquist sometime in the next two years and given how regarded the Chief Justice he is with Conservatives, the President will need to pick someone who is viewed as living up to his legacy while at the same time pick someone who is qualified for Chief Justice which may not be an easy take

Woodruff: Will the President need to still work in a bipartisan fasion or will that decrease given these results

Schinder: He absolutely does given that one the Republicans dont have a filibuster proof majority and two some of his agenda such as immigration and energy are issues that the party is divided on so if he wants to get stuff done on those issues he will have to get probably at least 15 to 20 democrats on board which requires bipartisanship.


Where do Democrats go from here:

Woodruff: So where do the Democrats go from here after last night's defeat

Greenfield: At the congressional level they have to completely reasses their strategy because they have been defeated consistently there since 1994 and if they dont want to have a chance at getting back power in either chamber sometime in the near future they will have to reasses their strategy or they will face the same problems the Republicans did in the 40 years before 1994 where the Democrats held the house for that entire span, and the senate for 34 of those years.

At the Presidential level they need to find ways to appeal more to either the south or west because currently the problem is say you give the Republicans the entire south other than Arkansas and West Virginia, the interior West , Indiana and New Hampshire the Republicans pretty much start with 252 electoral votes meaning the Democrats have to run the table to even have a chance of winning the white house. So over the next 4 year they either need to improve brands in some of those southern states or western states and that doesnt start with the next campaign but from today.


Any Early 2008 predictions:

Woodruff: Now just for fun , who do you guys think will be the contenders for each party's nomination 4 years from now

Schnider: For the Republicans, I think you will see the establishment probably coalesce around one of the Bush brothers, the moderates around Governor Guiliani, and the Conservatives around someone like Senator George Allen. While people like Tom Ridge will run I dont think they will go far. As for the Vice President, he has said multiple times he will not run for President but if he does he would be a contender as well and maybe the favorite. 

Greenfield: I think for the Democrats you will probably see the establishment coalesce around Hillary Clinton, the progressives around Russ Feingold again and some wildcards will be potentially Don Siegelman or maybe Joe Biden again.




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« Reply #373 on: July 23, 2021, 08:36:54 PM »

Nice! Personally, I think the GOP will lose 2008 like in our own timeline but not as badly.
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« Reply #374 on: July 24, 2021, 01:56:05 AM »

How are healthcare costs doing?
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