The Presidency of America's Maverick
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Question: Who Will win the 2008 Election
#1
George W Bush
 
#2
Hillary Clinton
 
#3
Will be a 269-269 Tie
 
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Total Voters: 15

Author Topic: The Presidency of America's Maverick  (Read 62267 times)
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« Reply #325 on: June 02, 2021, 10:17:08 PM »

VP shortlist for Senator Biden Released:

Howard Dean:



Strengths: Would fully help bring Feingold's liberal base to the Biden Fold and brings a lot of energy to the ticket

Weaknesses: Doesn't provide any regional diversity for the ticket and could alienate conservative Democrats

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Howard_Dean

Don Siegleman:



Strengths: Could help put more southern states in play and could help ticket make a populist play in the campaign

Weakness: While he could help expand the map, he doesn't put any battleground states in the Biden camp.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Siegelman

Jay Rockefeller:




Strengths: Would help ticket greatly in Appalachia which is critical in OH/PA and generally wouldn’t turn off any potential voters

Weaknesses: Wouldnt bring much  energy to the ticket and wouldn’t help appeal to young voters
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« Reply #326 on: June 03, 2021, 12:48:29 PM »

Initial 2004 Election Map Battleground Map:

Shaw: Lets go over now to Bill Schnider to look at the very first battleground map. So Bill how does it look so far

Schnider: President McCain does start out with the advantage as if you add up the electoral votes in states we have assigned as lean and Safe for each candidate you see that President McCain is up 215 to 153. Now this isnt much of a surprise given how incumbents usually have an easier path to winning than the challenger especially this early on but as you can see the President would currently need to win 55 Electoral votes from here vs 117 for Senator Biden.



McCain/Danforth 215
Biden/? 153


Shaw: Wouldnt people in either camp say that states like California and Georgia while you can find a plausible way for either candidate to get within 5 points in either state, there is really no plausible way for the President to win California or Senator Biden to take Georgia.

Schnider: Sure , but given how early it is in the election cycle we want to be a little more conservative in our ratings and given both states were decided by single digits last time and have governors from the other parties we have assigned them as Lean for now. If the election was just a month away , we would assign them as Safe but there is still a long way to go so we wont mark them as safe even though they probably will be Safe.

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« Reply #327 on: June 04, 2021, 07:51:05 PM »

Breaking News: Biden picks long time senator Jay Rockefeller as his running mate



Source : https://youtu.be/necfW5Dj5UQ

Shaw: We have some breaking news to report and that is Senator Biden has selected Senator Jay Rockefeller to be his running mate for the November election and now lets go over to Charleston, West Virginia to hear the announcement.

Biden: Thank You,  Thank You. One of the most important decisions, if not the most important decision a presidential candidate has to make is to pick a running mate as if they win that person will become the Vice President of our nation for the next 4 to 8 years. They must be someone the President can trust to be their main governing partner and advisor for that time, someone who has the experience to take on important responsibilities as well. I know better person who can do that more than my friend, your senator and our next Vice President Jay Rockefeller(Applause).

Rockefeller: Thank You , Thank You. I want to start out by thanking Senator Biden for giving me the honor of being his running mate and look forward to working with him to ensure my friend Joe Biden will become our next president(Applause) . Senator Biden has been one of the most decent hard working person I have known and I know he will work hard every day to make sure the soul of our nation , the great working class of our country gets even stronger(Applause). He understand those are the people who built our nation and it is time we once again implement policies that help the working people of this nation . That is why he must be elected our next president and I look forward to helping him achieve that goal . Thank you may god bless you and may god bless America
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« Reply #328 on: June 05, 2021, 03:58:09 AM »

Breaking News: Biden picks long time senator Jay Rockefeller as his running mate



Source : https://youtu.be/necfW5Dj5UQ

Shaw: We have some breaking news to report and that is Senator Biden has selected Senator Jay Rockefeller to be his running mate for the November election and now lets go over to Charleston, West Virginia to hear the announcement.

Biden: Thank You,  Thank You. One of the most important decisions, if not the most important decision a presidential candidate has to make is to pick a running mate as if they win that person will become the Vice President of our nation for the next 4 to 8 years. They must be someone the President can trust to be their main governing partner and advisor for that time, someone who has the experience to take on important responsibilities as well. I know better person who can do that more than my friend, your senator and our next Vice President Jay Rockefeller(Applause).

Rockefeller: Thank You , Thank You. I want to start out by thanking Senator Biden for giving me the honor of being his running mate and look forward to working with him to ensure my friend Joe Biden will become our next president(Applause) . Senator Biden has been one of the most decent hard working person I have known and I know he will work hard every day to make sure the soul of our nation , the great working class of our country gets even stronger(Applause). He understand those are the people who built our nation and it is time we once again implement policies that help the working people of this nation . That is why he must be elected our next president and I look forward to helping him achieve that goal . Thank you may god bless you and may god bless America

Good pick. I know they won’t win because it’s an OSR timeline but neither does it look like they will be wiped out
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« Reply #329 on: June 13, 2021, 07:53:17 PM »

2004 DNC: Democrats unite behind Biden in hopes of an Upset victory in November:

Notable Speakers:

Former President Bill Clinton: Compared and Contrasted economic record of past 4 years vs the economic record of the 8 years he was in office

Former Vice President Al Gore: Talked about need to work with the global community more to win the war on terrorism and combat Global Warming

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi: Talked about the need to give House control back to the Democrats

South Dakota Senator Tom Dahsale: Talked about his friendship with Senator Biden and the need to give Senate Control Back to the Democrats

Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold: Energized the Liberal Base by talking about issues such as healthcare, and on why Democrats will reverse outsourcing

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry: Talked about the need to create a new type of NATO to win the War on Terrorism

Alabama Governor Don Siegelman: Talked about the need to pass education reform

Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean: Energized young voters in the audience by talking about how the government should invest in the jobs of the future

Excerpts of Jay Rockefeller Speech accepting the Vice Presidential Nomination:



Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-rockefeller-idUSBRE90A0P620130111

Rockefeller: Thank You, Thank You. It is a great honor to be nominated for Vice President by this great party and I accept you nomination(Applause). Our party throughout our history has stood with those who need help the most and I am proud to be part of this great party and if elected will do all I can to help President Joe Biden put in place policies that will reduce poverty, and make healthcare more affordable to those who need it(Applause). The President and Republicans 4 years ago talked about doing so and in the past 4 years we haven't seen the President push for comprehensive Healthcare reform even once or the Republicans even once try to get such a bill out of committee(Boos), haven't seen them do it for education reform either and I can promise you if you elect Senator Biden to the White House , he will at the very least push to do both those things(Applause) .

Our party has also throughout our history has stood for international cooperation from President Wilson with the League of Nations , to President Roosevelt with the UN and President Truman with NATO and now its time to work with the global community again to create alliances and organizations to take on Terrorism and deal with the issue of climate change(Applause). While it is important to work with our allies on an individual basis like the President has done , that is not enough and history shows this. Thanks to the UN we were able to prevent World War 3 from ever happening and thanks to NATO we were able to win the cold war without ever going to war as well(Applause) and if we want to really win this war on terror we need to create a similar organization to deal with Terrorism(Applause).

Thank You, May God Bless you and May God Bless America


Excerpts of Joe Biden's speech accepting the Democratic Nomination for President



Source: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/12-conventions-48-years-joe-bidens-history-democratic/story?id=72426330

Biden: Thank You Thank You. It is an honor to be nominated by this great party that has produced so many great Presidents like Andrew Jackson, Woodrow Wilson, Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman, John F Kennedy and Bill Clinton and I accept your nomination(Standing Ovation). While the policies of our party has changed throughout our history, one thing has remained the same and that is that the purpose of our party is to help the common men and women in our nation and that is exactly why I am proud to be a member of this party(Applause). Today the working men and women of this nation face a crises of seeing their healthcare costs go up, education opportunity becoming more unequal, and many jobs being outsourced and it is time we have an administration that addresses these issues to ensure that the middle class can become stronger than ever. Like I have said many times on this campaign the soul of our nation is not those at the top but the workers and that is exactly what this campaign is about and If I win that is what I pledge that is what this adminstration will be about(Applause).

4 Years ago my friend John McCain and his party came in promising to return power to the people but unless we can make healthcare affordable again, make middle class blue-collar jobs more accessible again, and fix our education system to make sure every kid no matter their race, gender or socioeconomic status gets the same opportunity to a good education , power cannot be considered to be restored to the people(Applause). This should be common sense but our Republican friends have not even once used their power to fix these issues(Boos) which is exactly why it is time for a change.

Now as we all know for our nation to be prosperous not only do we have to improve our economy but strengthen our national security as well which is exactly why I believe it is time to create a new sorta of NATO to deal with terrorism. Terrorism is an issue that doesnt only effect one nation or one region but the whole world which is why we need a global solution to solve it(Applause). That requires working with our friends and adversaries across the world to counterterrorism because on that issue it effects all of us and it is in the best interests for all of our people to destroy terrorism(Applause).  Thank You May God Bless You May God Bless our Troops and May God Bless America.


Race tied after Biden surges in Polls post Convention:



McCain/Danforth 47% 196
Biden/Rockfeller 47% 189

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« Reply #330 on: June 14, 2021, 09:47:38 AM »

Has Zell Miller officially announced who to endorse in this election?
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« Reply #331 on: June 15, 2021, 01:02:27 AM »

Has Zell Miller officially announced who to endorse in this election?

He will endorse McCain but not as enthusiastically as he did OTL for George W Bush . There will be another democrat who will enthusiastically endorse McCain at the RNC though
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« Reply #332 on: June 15, 2021, 05:36:00 AM »

Has Zell Miller officially announced who to endorse in this election?

He will endorse McCain but not as enthusiastically as he did OTL for George W Bush . There will be another democrat who will enthusiastically endorse McCain at the RNC though

95% sure I know who it is
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« Reply #333 on: June 20, 2021, 04:47:20 PM »

2004 RNC: Republicans gather in Madison Square Garden in Hopes of firmly establishing position as the dominant party in American poltics

Notable Speakers:

Former President George HW Bush - Talked about the challenges of being President and how President McCain has lived up to the challenges over the past 4 years

Secretary of Defense Tom Ridge- Talked about the successes in the War on Terror and how Afghanistan and Iraq are on path to becoming stable democracies

Speaker Dennis Hastert- Talked about the need for Republicans to keep control of the house

Senate Majority Leader Slade Gorton - Talked about the need for Republicans to keep control of the senate

New York Governor Rudy Guliani - Talked about the need to win the war on terror and how New York has been rebuilt since 9/11

Florida Governor Jeb Bush- Talked about need to reform our immigration and education systems

Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman- Talked about his friendship with President McCain and asks Democrats to consider voting to reelect President McCain in November

Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney- Talked about how President McCain's economic policies have helped improve the US economy


Excerps of John Danforth's Speech accepting the Vice Presidential Nomination:





Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBTyjR8ElLc

Danforth: Thank You, Thank You. It is an honor to be once again nominated for Vice President by this great party and I accept your nomination(Applause). As someone who has worked with President for 8 years in the senate and 4 years in the White House, I can tell you I have never seen a more honorable and determined politician like John McCain before and I look forward to working with him over the next 4 years to make our nation an even better place(Applause). Four years ago when we spoke to you at the convention, the President promised to clean up corruption and guess what he has done so(Applause) and he will continue to do so for the next 4 years(Applause). For the past 4 years the President has signed legislation to reform our campaign finance system to give power back to the people, eliminated pork barrel spending to make sure special interests dont reap the benefits of bills, and a bill that increases transparency in our financial system(Applause).

3 years ago everything changed with the attacks on September the 11th here in New York and in Washington DC and we must do all we can to make sure an attack like that can never happen again. The reason it happened was cause for decades the world treated terrorism like any other crime rather than an act of war , and it is a mentality we can never have again(Applause). It is why over the past 3 years , the President has made it clear to terrorist groups that we will do all in our power to make sure they can find no safe haven anywhere in the world and made it clear to nations who harbor terrorists that the United States from now on will view that as an act of war(Applause). We are helping Iraq and Afghanistan on their pathway to Democracy, and nations across the world and standing for freedom all across the world(Applause). Thank You May God Bless You and May God Bless America


Excerpts of John McCain's speech accepting the Republican nomination for President:



Source(Modified): https://www.c-span.org/video/?182728-3/2004-john-mccain-speech

McCain: Thank You Thank You. It is an honor to be nominated by this great party of Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, Eisenhower, and Reagan once again and I accept your nomination(Applause) . 4 years ago when I spoke to you, none of us could imagine the challenges our nation would face over the years to come but I was confident no matter what challenges we faced we would overcome them and so far we are overcoming them becuase there is nothing this great nation cant do(Standing Ovation). We thought can't get complacent as the consequences of being complacent are too large, as we saw on September 11th in this great city and in Washington and I can pledge to the people of this great nation if you reelect me I will never get complacent in facing this threat(Applause).

Terrorism is also an issue that not only faces us but people across the world which makes it similar to the threat faced by fascism in World War Two and just like then the forces of evil will be destroyed(Applause). We have already liberated Afghanistan and Iraq and both those nations are now on track to becoming stable democracies and other nations in the region such as Libya have agreed to dismantle their WMD program and start cooperating with the rest of the world in this war on terror(Applause). Now while my friends on the other side are trying to say that there is not much of a contrast on this issue, let me remind the American people that when we were preparing for the invasion of Iraq, both Senator Biden and Senator Rockefeller both said they wanted us to wait for United Nations approval before we undertake the mission(Boos). If we had followed the path outlined by Senator Biden, Senator Rockefeller and the Democratic Party then Suddam Hussain would still be in charge of Iraq today as the United Nations was never gonna give us the approval due to the veto power Russia and China have and pledged to veto such a resolution no matter what which is why we didnt take that route(Applause). Yes the United Nations is important and we in the US support many of its efforts but that doesnt mean we can wait on them to make every decision and we will not do so(Applause).

Now my Democratic friends in Boston also claimed that we haven't done much on critical issues at home so lets look at the record between the past 4 years and the prior 8 years they were in power for. Back in 1992 the Democrats took the White House promising to clean up Washington and pass a bill that would cover prescription drugs under Medicare and not only did that not happen but the power of special interest groups increased and so did the price of prescription drugs(boos). Compare that to the past 4 years where we have made progress in cleaning up Washington by passing campaign finance reform , tightened restrictions on lobbyists, banned pork-barrel spending and got rid of deductions in our tax code that special interests took advantage of(Applause). We have also passed legislation which would cover prescription drugs under Medicare as well so the fact is in the past 4 years we have made progress on major issues and we will continue to make them for another 4.

Thank you may god Bless You and May God Bless America


McCain surges back to a 6 point lead post convention




McCain/Danforth 239
Biden/Rockefeller 158
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« Reply #334 on: June 22, 2021, 01:14:59 PM »
« Edited: June 22, 2021, 05:19:02 PM by Old School Republican »

State of Race Before the First Debate:



McCain/Danforth 247 52%
Biden/Rockefeller 158 45%


King: With the first debate taking place tommorow , with us today on Larry King is Republican Strategist Mary Matalin and Democratic Strategist James Carville. So James you have seen this map, and how stable it has seemed to be throughout the election cylce with the exception of the convention bounce after the DNC, so what does Senator Biden have to do in these debates to tighten these poll numbers.


Carville: Well first things first, is Senator Biden must at the very least hold his own in the foreign policy debate because the fact is the best chance he has of winning is if the public judges both candidates as good on this issue and then decide the election on domestic issues where I think he can make a case. The only way he can do that is if he at the very least holds his own though I think he needs to win it and the way he can do that is by emphasizing his experience in the senate on the foreign affairs committe, and talk about the importance of working with the global community more in a concrete way to win the war on terror. I definitely think he can but it won't be easy

King: If he is able to do well in the debate, do you think this election will be a tossup

Carville: No because the fact is in our system incumbents do have an advantage but it will give him a chance of winning which is something Bob Dole did not have in 1996. On the other hand if Senator Biden loses this debate, he will not have a chance of winning this election at all which is what makes this debate critical because while having an unlikely chance of winning isn't great its much better than have no chance.

King: So Mary do you agree Senator McCain can finish the election of tomorrow and if so what can he do

Matalin: Yes i absolutely do think he can, and some ways he can do that is by talking over and over about the progress we have made in the war on terror, and in Afghanistan and Iraq. I do think though the other debates are still very important as if Senator McCain can win the Domestic policy debate he could help greatly in increasing our majorites in both houses of congress.
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« Reply #335 on: June 24, 2021, 06:17:45 PM »

Battleground Senate and Gubernatorial Races:

Woodruff: Along with the Presidential race, also at stake is control of both chambers of Congress and for many states the gubernatorial office as well. So Bill how do the battlegrounds look so far

Schnider: Well in the Senate there are 10 seats we believe are vulnerable to switching sides, 7 of which are controlled by the Democrats and 3 by the Republicans.  Ok lets look at those seats, first the Democrats

Vulnerable Democratic Seats:

Florida: Former State Education Commissioner Betty Castor(D) vs Florida Governor Jeb Bush(R)- Likely Republican Gain

Georgia: Represenative Denise Majette(D) vs Former State Representative Alveda King(R)- Likely Republican Gain

Lousiana: Representative Chris John(D) vs State Treasurer John Neely Kennedy(D) vs Mr. Bobby Jindal(R) - Lean Republican Gain

North Carolina: Senator John Edwards(D) vs Representative Richard Burr(R) - Tossup

South Carolina: Mr. Ben Fraiser(D) vs Former Attorney General Lindsey Graham(R)- Safe Republican Gain

South Dakota: Senate Minority Leader Tom Dashale(D) vs Former Representative John Thune(R)- Tossup

Wisconsin: Senator Russ Feingold(D) vs Former Lieutenant Governor Margaret Farrow(R)- Lean Democratic Hold

Schnider: Now lets look at the vulnerable Republican seats

Vulnerable Republican Seats

Colorado: Businessman Pete Coors(R) vs State Attorney General Ken Salazar(D) - Tossup

Illinois: Senator Peter Fitzgerald(R) vs State Senator Barack Obama(D) - Tossup

Kentucky- Senator Jim Bunning(R) vs State Senator Daniel Mongiardo(D) - Tossup


Schnider: The ultimate goal for Senate Republicans this whole year has been to get to that elusive 60 seat number in the senate and the reason for that is if they get that it will mean they will have a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate and will have the ability to pass their agenda with pretty much no roadblocks. The question has been can they get there and the answer is yes they do have a path to get to 60 but it is a very narrow one. The reason for that is they will need to win 9 of these 10 races to get to 60 and if you assume Wisconsin will go to the Democrats given it leans Senator Feingold way and the momentum seems to be in his camp, then Republicans will need to sweep the remaining seats on here to get to 60. The problem with that is in Illionis , the momentum seems to be with the Democrat Mr.Obama and if the polls dont change here within the next 10 to 14 days , that race most likely will be considered Leaning Democratic as well, meaning the Republicans no longer will have the ability to get to 60.


Woodruff: What about the other seats , how are they going

Schnider: Well in Kentucky current Republican Senator Jim Bunning is unpopular , in North Carolina Senator John Edwards is leading and in South Dakota it will be very difficult to knock of the Senate Minorty Leader so at this moment id say it is pretty unlikely Republicans get to 60 seats this November.


Woodruff: What about the Battleground Gubernatorial races


Vulenrable Gubernatorial Seats:

Deleware: Governor Ruth Minner(D) vs State Justice Bob Lee(R)- Tossup

Indiana: Governor Joe Kernan(D) vs Former State Secretary of State Sue Gilroy (R)- Lean Republican Gain

Missouri: State Auditor Claire McCaskill(D) vs State Secretary of State Matt Blunt(R)- Tossup

Montana: State Secretary of State Bob Brown(R) vs State Senator Jon Tester(D) - Tossup

Washington: State Attorney General Christine Gregoire(D) vs State Senator Dino Rossi(R)- Tossup

Schnider: Democrats hoped to potentially put New Hampshire in play to but they pretty much triaged that race given that Governor Gordon Humphrey seems too popular to beat. Republicans though are hoping to make gains this cycle after a disappointing gubernatorial cycle 4 years ago where they only won 3 of the 11 races up .
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« Reply #336 on: June 24, 2021, 06:31:11 PM »
« Edited: June 26, 2021, 12:00:04 PM by 2016 »

If McCain wins as big as he's leading right now Republicans do have a shot getting 60!
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« Reply #337 on: June 25, 2021, 09:43:07 PM »

I predict that President McCain will win Pennsylvania again due to his maverick stance and ability to appeal among independent voters. After all that's the state that brought him over the top in 2000 and incumbent Presidents who won their re-election bids usually win by a higher perfornance in the popular vote most of the time. In addition it was in Stonycreek Township, Pennsylvania that Flight 93 that was hijacked by Al Qaeda terrorists crashed due to the passengers taking on hijackers while the target was either the White House or the U.S. Capitol on September 11th. And under President McCain, Osama Bin Laden was eliminated.
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« Reply #338 on: June 29, 2021, 01:52:15 PM »

Summary of the First Presidential Debate:



Source: https://apnews.com/article/f8aeb6fc3fc76ef11bca1d6368afb4f9

Key Moment 1:

Lehrer: Senator Biden while you have pointed to the fact you authorized the war in Iraq , you were quoted in the leadup of the war that we shouldnt go in until the UN authorizes it . So do you think in hindsight you were wrong with that call or would you stick by it

Biden: Jim it is not about whether it was correct or wrong in the instant but what our overall policy is gonna be. The fact is in this overall global war on terror to win we need to work with the United Nations as the fact is we cant do everything alone. That is why I have proposed creating a seperate international body similar to NATO to deal with decisions relating to the War on Terror so we can work together on that area to win this war.

McCain: Well the fact is each situation is different and in the case of Iraq we didnt have time to wait for the UN. They had been blatantly violating the cease fire agreement for 12 years and refusing to work with the international community on the War on Terror at all so we had no choice but to go in without the UN . If we had taken the Senator's advice , Suddam Hussains till would be in power today because the fact is we never were going to get Russia's or China's approval in the United Nations which is why it would have been a mistake to wait for their approval.

Biden: Which is why I believe there should be a new body like NATO where we could have dealt with Iraq together and rebuilt it together like we did with Germany after WW2, and also our military wouldnt have to be spread so thin . Currently, if we say have to send troops elsewhere, we may have to withdraw some troops from Iraq and Afghanistan to accomplish that mission which could risk stability in Iraq and Afghanistan which is why I believe we need to be careful the next time a similar debate comes up because we cannot afford to have our military be spread so thin.

McCain: In all due respect to the Senator, I can say he is completely wrong with our military being spread too thin and you can check with every general saying the same thing. The fact is we have successfully managed to remove Suddam Hussain from power, stabilize the nation after a brief period of instability , and now Iraq is on a path to being a democracy so Id say the Senator was wrong about Iraq and he should admit it.

Lehrer: Moving on:

Key Moment 2:

Lehrer: President McCain , in your state of the union speech in 2002 you identified Iraq, Syria and Iran as 3 states most responsible for abetting terrorism. If you are reelected what will you do to deal with those threats, if they are still threats in your mind

McCain: Jim they are still threats and what we will do is what we are already doing which is we have rached up sanctions against both regimes and have reformed our intelligence agencies to counter operations made by both regimes.  We will also be doing whatever we can to make sure neither regime can ever get nuclear capabilities as if they get one the damage they can do to us or any nation on this planet would be far worse than 9/11.

Lehrer: Does this include military options

McCain: An invasion is an option we will not use until it is the last resort but there different types of military options you can use that doesnt involve an invasion and depending on the situation it may have to be used .

Biden: This is again why I believe we need to create a NATO-style organization to deal with regimes such as the Iranian regime and the Syrian regime. The reason this is important is because currently other than US only the UK is really putting pressure on the Iranians while if we had a NATO-style organization we could have many more nations pool our resources together to put much more pressure on the Iranians and Syrians to either stop their nuclear options or face massive consequences.

McCain: The problem once again with the Senator's strategy is the Russians or Chinese will not go along with this so again just like with Iraq, we cant afford punting this vital issue to a global organization that again will do nothing of significance.

Biden: The problem is not that we havent been able to get the Russians or Chinese on board, but the fact we have unable to get nations such as Canada, France or Germany which by the way are 3 of the 11 largest economies in the world on board which would help greatly in putting the pressure on Iran and Syria. Also President McCain is wrong when he says I would punt the issue because I favor also strictly sanctioning Iraq and Syria , its just that I think we need more nations on board which would critically help.

Lehrer: Moving On


Important Point 3:

Lehrer: Senator Biden as you may know the President is currently negotiating a trade deal with Latin America and is looking to get a basic framework of it passed by next year so what is your opinion of a potential trade deal with Latin America and if elected what would you about it

Biden: Jim, as you know I am a supporter of Free Trade but at the same time I have not been in support of every single free trade deal that has come up in the past because this issue very much depends on the deal or situation itself and since I am not the President or not in this administration I cant tell you what I think of the current state of the deal. What I can tell you is if I am President and I am negotiating such a deal there are 3 things I would require from any deal: 1. It benefits the working men and women of this nation, 2. does not hurt our ability to build critical infrastructure in the future and 3. ensuring everyone plays by the same rules in the trade deal.


McCain: Well , the fact is I think it is critical to pass this trade deal as one it will mean we will have closer relations with nations across both American continents not only economically but diplomatically and culturally as well, two most experts believe that it will benefit both consumers and our farmers in our nation, and three I believe it will help reduce illegal immigration as well because it will strengthen the economies in Latin America thus reduce the incentive for people to illegally come here

Biden: Well one reason the President and his party forget to mention when talking about illegal immigration is the fact that many corporations in America use illegal immigrants to undercut wages and use cheap labor here in the United States and when I am President we will crack down heavily on such activity cause it not only violated the law but is immoral as well.

McCain: Under my administration, we have created tools that would enable the labor department to fine corporations that hire illegal immigrants and we have used it

Biden: Well looks like they havent been used enough then or the penalties haven't been stringent enough and that will change if I am elected President

McCain: Keep in mind we have taken more action in 4 years than the previous administration took in 8

Lehrer: Moving on



Debate viewed as a draw by pundits , which helps Biden move up 1 point in the polls

Blitzer : Last night debate which was viewed as a Draw has helped Senator Biden move one electoral vote in Maine into the Lean column and according to CNN we are also moving Hawaii and Connecticut to states previously considered Lean Biden into the Safe Biden category. As for California Senator Biden has consistently held a lead in the upper single digits here throughout the campaign and if the same remains true after the next Presidential debate we will move California also into the Safe Biden category but it is too early as of this moment to do so.



McCain/Danforth 247 52%
Biden/Rockefeller 159 46%
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« Reply #339 on: June 29, 2021, 03:17:04 PM »

Fact Check from the debate : Biden is wrong to say that he has not been in support of every single free trade deal that has come up in the past. In 1993, he voted in favor of NAFTA.

https://justfacts.votesmart.org/bill/votes/15621

It's no secret that Biden is a flip-flop.
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« Reply #340 on: June 29, 2021, 03:42:05 PM »

Fact Check from the debate : Biden is wrong to say that he has not been in support of every single free trade deal that has come up in the past. In 1993, he voted in favor of NAFTA.

https://justfacts.votesmart.org/bill/votes/15621

It's no secret that Biden is a flip-flop.

Since when have politicians ever been consistent? Anyway, Biden will lose regardless.
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« Reply #341 on: July 03, 2021, 08:53:10 PM »

Summary of the Vice Presidential Debate:



Key Moment 1:

Ifill: Senator Rockefeller if you are elected Vice President what would be your role in a potential Biden administration over the next 4 years

Rockefeller: Well as all Vice Presidents I will be the President's top advisor and be in there in the important meetings with his cabinet and policy-based meetings. I also will be working closely with the senate to ensure the President's policy agenda can pass on issues such as helping keep our nation safe, and in strangething our middle class. I do not believe the Vice President of the United States should deal with a specific issue because that is the job of Cabinet members, but rather work with the President to help our nation on a wide variety on ones and that is what I will do as Vice President

Danforth: As Vice President yes I have been the top advisor to President McCain and helped ensure his policy agenda can pass as well but I disagree on not getting invovled in one specific issue. The fact is the President doesnt have the time to put the attention needed on a specfic issue given the fact he is dealing with larger issues at times, so the Vice President can ensure that issue is getting the attention needed because just cause it isnt as big as the other issues doesn't mean they need to be solved. For example an issue I have worked on over the past 4 years is education where I as the Vice President have traveled across the nation to ensure states and municipalities are getting the resources needed and two help them make the changes needed to improve their systems and so far we have been very successful at that.

Rockefeller: Well if President Biden is busy say a week dealing with one issue then yes as Vice President I would step in and deal with the other issue as well but I dont think that should be decided from day 1. Different issues come up throughout the 4 years and it can be decided what to work on from there.

Ifill: Moving on


Important Point 2:

Ifill: Vice President Danforth as you may know many Americans despite supporting the administration decision to invade Iraq are skeptical about whether the fact you can create a fully democratic state in the middle east, so what do you say to Americans who are skeptical about that?

Danforth: Gwen, the main thing to understand is that a transition to becoming a stable democracy takes time and effort for that process to take place. Remember after WW2 it took 7 years after the end of the war for us to be able to leave Japan and also remember the ratification of our constitution ddint take place until 7 years after the Battle of Yorktown and 12 years after the Declaration of Independence so it is important to remember these things take time. Currently, in Iraq we have so far spent the past year and a half ensuring first the conditions to creating a democracy such as stability, institutions required to govern a nation work well and our helping the Iraqis facilitate a process where they can come up with their own constitution as well. So I definitely believe we are succeeding

Rockefeller: I do think Americans have the right to ask this question on whether our current approach is the best approach to ensure a transition to democracy for Iraq is the best approach. Senator Biden and I believe that we should invite the UN to help us achieve this goal in Iraq as remember in the aftermath of World War Two we did exactly that to help rebuild Germany and Japan and turn them into stable Democracies as well. That also would show the people of Iraq that this effort is not done for the interests of one nation but that we really want to help them

Danforth: Senator Rockefeller I don't know where you got the talking point that the people dont like us there. Our troops in Baghdad have been thanked countless times by the people of Iraq for freeing them from the tyranny of Suddam Hussain and working to ensure their people can remain free. Again though this statement by my opponent shows the problem with the Democratic party over the past few years where instead of focusing on core policy decisions they are focusing on tactics and yes tactics are important but policy should come first and that is something Senator Biden and the Democratic Party have lost sight on the past few years .

Rockefeller: Working more with the UN and these international institutions is a policy decision and not just a tactic as that gives us more goodwill and means we don’t have to spread our resources out so thin either

Danforth : I believe it is tactical as decisions such as whether we should have gone into Iraq or not is the real policy decision while how we went in is tactical. Listen we also wanted the UN to join in but they didn’t so should we have not gone in in that case . My answer to that is no we still should have gone in and the results show we were correct too

Ifill: Moving on


Ifill : Senator Rockefeller, education is an issue that is a concern to Americans like it always has been. If elected what will Senator Biden and you do to improve our educational system in the US

Rockefeller: Senator Biden and I believe that the number 1 thing we can do to improve our educational system is by incentivizing the best and brightest among us to go in the profession of teaching and one way to do that is by increasing teacher pay and benefits. Number 2 is we need to give more funding to schools to reduce class sizes so students get more individual attention from teachers and that is critical and we will implement that as well.

Danforth: What we have done for the past 4 years and will continue for another 4 is continue to work with states to expand school choice, and to give parents a better idea of how their child is doing in school as well.  The way we have done that is by block granting education funding to the states and having the department of education work with each state's department of education to introduce stuff like school vouchers, create more standards that apply for all public schools in a state , and increase after school services for struggling kids .


Rockefeller: One of the problems we have seen over the past 4 years with vouchers is we have seen a push to privatize education which undermines our public schools . I believe rather than pushing for more privatization of education we push to improve the quality of our Public schools which is what we will do if you elect us to the White House next month .


Danforth : The problem is that kids have limited time to get their public education and we can’t afford them to fall behind so what we have done is simultaneously give parents of kids going to failing schools to have the opportunity to go to a better school while same time improve public schools so parents in the upcoming years wouldn’t have to send their kids to a private school .

Ifill: Moving on

Battleground Map remains unchanged after VP Debate
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« Reply #342 on: July 08, 2021, 02:13:43 PM »

Summary of the 2nd Presidential Debate:



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdmGBGkOKU4

Important Moment 1:

Gibson: Our first question of the night will be on the issue about terrorism and President McCain you will be the first person to answer it

Audience Member 1: Throughout this campaign both of you have spoken about your plans to win the war on terror, but what are your plans to keep Americans safe from terrorists who are already here in the US and are planning attacks either with domestic terrorist groups or by themselves

McCain: After the September 11th attacks , we put in place measures not only to protect ourselves from terrorist groups abroad but here at home as well. Some of those measures were giving our intelligence agencies more tools to intercept and stop plans made by both domestic and foreign terrorist groups, put in place more security checks at places like Airports, Train Stations, and in areas that generally attract a large crowd to ensure that no dangerous items used to carry out such attacks can be used in places terrorist groups most likely would likely to attack in the first place.

Biden: When it came to those measures the President just talked about , it is something I support and would keep in place if I am president but I do think there are some areas where the President and I disagree and that is when it comes to the decision made by the President to let the Assualt Weapon Ban expire a month ago. Those types of weapons can be used by members of terrorist groups, gang members , and deeply sick individuals in general to committ terrorist attacks which is why we banned it 10 years ago and it should not have been left to expire.


McCain: The problem with the assault weapon ban is it violated the constitution by infringing on Americans 2nd amendment right and I dont think generally the solution should be to disarm legally armed citizens but rather  to increase the penalties for any sort of crimes committed with a gun.


Biden: If you remember, President Reagan back in 1986 signed a bill that banned fully automatic weapons and it was a bill both of us voted for back then,  so the person who disagrees with your argument that the assault weapon ban is unconstitutional is only me but John McCain as well.

Gibson: Moving on

Important Point 2:

Gibson: The next question will be about the economy and it will be for you Senator Biden

Audience Member 2: As someone who grew up in Detroit, it has been really sad to see so many former factories close down due to outsourcing. If you are elected President what will you do to revive American manufacturing

Biden: As someone who grew up in Scranton , Pennslyvania I can tell you that it is really saddening to see what has happened to so many cities across our nation and I believe it has to change. Ways we will do that is by 1 eliminating tax breaks that incentivize companies to ship overseas, rebuild our infrastructure to help build back industrialization as well. I also will negotiate trade deals to make sure they not only help corporations but the workers as well and I believe doing these policies are critical to reviving American manufacturing. Like I have said multiple times on this campaign the soul of our nation isnt those at the top but the working class and thats what my administration will fcous on.

McCain: Senator Biden over the past 4 years we have already gotten rid of tax breaks that incentivize outsourcing such as Offshore Tax Deferral , and we have gotten rid of the unnecessary regulations that were disincentivizing companies from creating jobs here in the US. Our record has shown this has worked as we have brought the unemployment rate back under 5% and over the next 4 years we plan on implementing policies such as tax credits and getting rid of bad regulations to stimulate job growth in struggling areas.

Biden: The unemployment rate does not tell the whole story Mr.President as yes the unemployment rate is dropping but one at a slower rate than it has historically and second many of those laid of factory workers now work in jobs that pay less and offer less benefits than they had before which in my opinion is not a good trade-off. We need to work to implement a policy that not only creates job but decent-paying jobs as well.

McCain: What lower unemployment does Senator Biden is it forces companies to have to raise wages of workers in order to keep them as their employee and that is exactly what has happened over the past few years and will continue to happen over the next 4.


Gibson : Moving On


Important Moment 3:

Gibson : Our next question will be about the environment and it will be for you President McCain

Audience Member 3 : President McCain as you know many know scientists are warming us about the potential consequences of global warming if we fail to act , so What have you done over the past 4 years to deal with this issue and what will you do for the next 4 if you are re-elected.


McCain : Thanks  for asking the question as the issue of global warming is an important issue we will have to confront and it is something we have taken action on over the past 4 years . In the past 4 years we have increased funding for R&D for alternative energy sources , and currently are advocating for a cap and trade system to be put in place so we can start to significantly reduce legislation. As a westerner, I can tell you we love our climate and we will protect it .

Biden : President McCain the problem is you claim that you are in supportive of all these things while you took us out of the Kyoto protocol which was an agreement that would have reduced emissions and would have showed the world that we are willing to work with them in solving this issue which is critical. The issue of global warming is a global problem and by definition we need a global solution to that and while Kyoto wasnt perfect it was a start.

McCain: I didnt take us out of Kyoto , the senate did which voted 95 to 0 to oppose the treaty and from what i remember my opponent also voted to oppose the treaty so it is hypocritical for Senator Biden to say it was bad for the US to be out of Kyoto when he himself voted against it.


Biden: That senate bill happened before Kyoto and was advisory, not binding so we werent required to leave Kyoto based on that and if I were president I would have sent Kyoto to the senate for potential ratification and if it then failed then I agree we would have no choice but to leave it. That did not happen though, and I believe you should have tried to get Kyoto ratified in the senate before taking us out.


Gibson: Moving on


Biden within 3 points in National Polls after Debate Win:

Blitzer: Since the Debate , Senator Biden has pulled within 3 points of President McCain in the polls and we have also been able to move 3 states into different categories all in favor of Mr. Biden: In California CNN is moving the state from Lean Biden to Safe Biden, in Michigan CNN is moving the state from a Tossup to Lean Biden and in Kentucky, we are moving the state from Lean McCain back to tossup. While President McCain has an easier path to 270 , the path has become less narrow for Senator Biden than at any time since the DNC



McCain/Danforth 239 50%
Biden/Rockefeller 176 47%

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« Reply #343 on: July 08, 2021, 02:31:15 PM »

Go Uncle Joe, and Rockefeller is an excellent vice presidential pick. Too bad they don't have much of a chance I believe as McCain turns out to be a decent president.
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« Reply #344 on: July 08, 2021, 03:02:30 PM »

Crap,
McCain may have squandered Republican Chances to get to 60 Seats in the Senate with his poor Debate Performance. This is bad News for the President. Democrats obstruct everything just like they did in the OTL when they took over Congress in 2006.
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« Reply #345 on: July 13, 2021, 03:24:50 AM »

Summary of the Final Presidential Debate:

Important Moment 1:

Schieffer : President McCain , while you on this campaign trail have touted your economic policies many critics have responded by saying how can it be good if we are on track to have the slowest job creation in any 4 year period since the 1950s.

McCain : the reason is cause that number is misleading as it does not take into account that our economy went into recession just 2 months after we took office due to a crash in the technology bubble that took place a year before I even became president  and then 6 months our economy  later took another hit due to the September 11th attacks and both incidents really hampered our economy for some time . What is important though is that we have managed  to bring our economy back to under 5% unemployment in less than 2 years since we bottomed out and I believe if we continue on this path for the next 4 years we can have an even stronger economy than we did in the late 1990s.


Biden : The problem Mr.President with quoting that unemployment stat is it doenst account for the fact that many Americans have lost good paying jobs due to the fact that it was shipped overseas and due to that had to take a job at a place that pays less than before . It doesn’t take into account that recent college graduates are more and more talking about their struggles to find good paying jobs which was certainly not the case in the late 1990s . Our nation is in worse shape than it was 4 years ago and the reason for that is Republican policies just don’t work as good as our policies .

McCain : if you want to wonder whether or not America  is better off that it was 4 years ago , just as Americans if they think they are safer or less safe than they were 4 years ago knowing that Bin Laden is dead , ask Americans do they think they are more or less worried about the future knowing that we recovered from a recession we were on the brink of facing 4 years ago in one of the quickest periods in history and ask Americans if they think our government represents the people more instead of special interests than it did 4 years ago given the fact we passed campaign finance reform , limited pork barrel spending and got rid of loopholes from the tax for only these special interests benefited from .

Can we  do better than we are doing right now , absolutely and that is why I am running for re-election but it is absolutely inaccurate to say we are worse of than we were 4 years ago

Schiffer: Moving on

Important Moment 2:

Schieffer: Senator Biden , you have criticized the President on the issue of healthcare over and over in campaign rallies of yours but the question is what would be your plan to make healthcare more affordable for Americans who cant currently afford it

Biden: The first thing we need to do in my opinion is to expand the accessibility of medicare to also include lower middle class Americans in our nation as over the past 40 years the cost of healthcare has gone up so much from where many working class Americans cannot afford the healthcare they would in the past and that is something this solution would fix. I also believe kids should be able to stay on their parent's health insurance plan till their 25 as studies have shown that even if graduates are able to land a job in a field that pays a lot of money, at first those jobs wont pay a lot of money and I believe instead of making it harder for our next generation, we should make it easier.


McCain: While expanding Medicaid could in the short run help increase the amount of Americans who are insured in our nation, it will not in the medium or long term because it does not address the core issue of healthcare and that is costs keep going up and up so 5 to 10 years from now we could be having this same debate again. My belief is we instead should implement policies that focus on controlling overall prices and one way to do that is by: one reforming our tort system as many studies have shown lawsuits have resulted in prices in healthcare to go up, two encouraging more competition by giving incentivizes for providers to enter areas where they are only one provider and by letting people purchase insurance across state lines, three by getting rid of regulations that have contributed to prices going up as well.  Doing these 3 things will lower healthcare costs which will lead to more Americans being able to buy health insurance.


Biden: The problem with the President's plan is one it does not address the huge profit margins these insurance companies make so even if you do lower healthcare costs, they still have no incentive to reduce their prices. Number two where was the President with this plan for the past 4 years because his party has been in control of the White House and both houses of congress for the past 4 years and we haven't seen this plan be debated seriously even once so how do we know this isnt just campaign rhetoric by the President .

McCain: We have cracked down on price gouging and we will continue to do so but again the problem with your plan is it doesn't fix the broken system , rather it bails it out for a few years and that is wrong . Second on the issue of healthcare, in January of this year I signed Medicare Part D into law that covers prescription drugs under medicare so while we havent done everything we wanted yet on the issue of healthcare we have already made some reforms, and the reason I am running for reelection is so we can not only continue what we have done over the past 4 years but to expand upon it.

Schiffer: Moving on


Important Moment 3:


Schiffer:  President McCain over this camapign you have talked multiple times about how you have taken on special interest influence on politics and public policy but many say while you have done that you have failed to take on those influences when it comes to a nongovernmental level. What is your response to that

McCain: Well Bob that is not true because remember we passed Sarbanes-Oxley into law which increased transparency in our financial system and reformed accounting standards so we have taken on special interest influence across the board. We though are not done on that front cause over the next 4 years we plan to reform our tort system that has given too much power to special interest groups through our legal system and we intend to fix that over the next 4 years


Biden: Well you are correct Bob in the fact that the President has not taken on the fact that Corporations have behaved more irresponsibly over the past 4 years according to many reports, we have seen huge deficits which again favor special interests and that is something I intend to take on as President of the United States. Ways I plan to do so is by 1 raising the minimum wage, getting rid of tax incentives that incentive outsourcing and do nothing but add to the defict. Doing these things will reduce power of special interest groups and thats what I intend to do


McCain: The reason we have a deficit is not due to more power to special interests but rather cause we are fighting a war and still recovering from a recession that bottomed out just two years ago and infact we have reduced their power in that case by getting rid of Pork Barrell spending. We have also gone after irresponsible behavior by cracking down on stuff like price gouging so again what the Senator is saying is false.


Biden: It is absoutely not false Mr.President, over the past 4 years we have seen increases in irresponsibility from CEOS and executives and that is not me saying but multiple studies  saying that. Second on the deficit, a large part of it is casue of the tax cuts that were passed by this administration which was not something Id so


Schiffer: Moving on


McCain jumps back up to 6 point lead in polls after debate win:

Blitzer: After a debate win , President McCain has jumped back to a 6 point lead and due to that we can move Kentucky and New Mexico from Tossup to Lean McCain and Michigan from Lean Biden back to tossup.



McCain/Danforth 252 52%
Biden/Rockefeller 159 46%


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« Reply #346 on: July 13, 2021, 12:49:40 PM »

2004 Election Night Preview:


Blitzer: With less than 24 hours until the first poll closing lets go over to Jeff Greenfield and Bill Schnider to see what the keys will be for both candidates tommorow

Greenfield: First lets pull up our battleground map



McCain/Danforth 252 52%
Biden/Rockefeller 159 47%


Greenfield: As you can see from there that while President McCain definitely has an advantage and Senator Biden as a pretty uphill climb to make , he is still in better position then Bob Dole was in 1996 where by this point it was clear he had no path left to 270.  So the strategy for the Biden camp to get back into the game is a strategy we are calling 3-2-1 meaning he first must win the 3 rust belt states of Pennslyvania, Ohio and Michigan as a loss in any of these states would mean President McCain would be reelected as remember since the Republicans are almost certainly going to retain control of the house, the President only needs 269 Electoral votes to win.

Then as you can see on the map , Senator Biden cannot afford to lose both states in the Pacific Northwest or both Wisconsin and Minnesota as doing so will mean the President gets re-elected so he must win at least one state each to stay in the game, in this case we will say Washington and Minnesota since they are more Democratic than their neighboring states. Then the last state we will say Senator Biden will almost certianly need is New Jersey as while he mathematically may not need it , if he loses that state he almost certianly will have lost one of these other battlegrounds meaning he will have lost the election .


Now doing this 3-2-1 Strategy as you can see gives Senator Biden 253 electoral votes to President McCain's 252 meaning both are 17 electoral votes away from the magic number and the states of Maine, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Iowa and Oregon would be deciding the election.

Blitzer: So Schinder lets focus on those 3 critical states in the rust belt and what we should be looking for tommorow

Schnider: Well to go through each states polling right now we can see that in Michigan right now Senator Biden as the slight edge, in Ohio President McCain does and in Pennslyvania its a dead heat , but as you stated President McCain only needs 1 of those 3 states to be reelected. So some things we will be looking for in each state is:


In Pennsylvania- Democrats usually win big in the cities of Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Scranton while Republicans usually win big in Rural areas with the key generally being the suburban areas of all 3 . Democrats traditionally do well in the suburbs of Pittsburgh, Scranton and in recent years the inner suburbs of Philadelphia while Republicans generally do well in the more outer suburbs of Phildelphia so they key is what will be the margins in these suburbs for both candidates. Can President Biden do better in Scranton suburbs than a average Democrat and President McCain do better in the inner suburbs.  We will see


In Ohio- Democrats usually do good in places like Cleveland, Youngstown, Toledo while Republicans do well in Cincinnati and in the Central rural parts of the state. So the question is again what the margins will be in the strongeholds and in the Swing areas of Columbus and South East Ohio . Right now the Polls show Senator McCain having a slight advantage but that can change


In Michigan- Democrats usually do good in Detriot, Ann Arbor and the Northern Areas of the state while Republicans usually do good in Grand Rapids and the central rural areas of the state while the swing areas are once again the suburban areas of Detriot along with some rural areas in the North though not the very north. Currently Polls show Senator Biden having a slight advantage but that can change


Blitzer: Ok thanks for both your analysis, and we hope all of you at home join us tomorrow for our coverage for the 2004 election.
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« Reply #347 on: July 13, 2021, 12:52:54 PM »

Feel free to post your maps
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« Reply #348 on: July 14, 2021, 07:18:45 PM »

Keep in mind since the Florida 2000 fiasco didn’t happen in this TL , states will be projected faster than OTL as 2000 really made the networks much more careful about making these projections
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« Reply #349 on: July 14, 2021, 07:55:25 PM »

I am not posting a Map but I'll say this: McCain will win easily.
 
However having Washinton & Oregon as Toss Ups is a little bit too optimistic on your behalf.

Biden will win PA, NJ, McCain will win OH. McCain will also win Iowa, Michigan & Wisconsin and Biden will win Minnesota. McCain also wins Arkansas while Biden will win the Overall State of Maine + 1st Congressional District.

Curious what happens in the Washington Governor Race assuming Gregoire and Rossi are running against each other like in the OTL.

I also think that the Wisconsin Senate Race will be a lot closer compared to the OTL due to McCain carrying the State.
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