The Presidency of America's Maverick

[OSR stands with Israel]

CNN: Election Night in America 2008(Part 1)



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DITO8F3KUlE

7:00:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B_U0FyRwvU

Blitzer: We have just got our first round of poll closing and CNN can now project Senator Bush will win the states of Indiana and South Carolina while Senator Clinton will win the state of Vermont. We are unable to make calls at the moment in Virginia, Kentucky, Georgia and New Hampshire.



Bush 19
Clinton 3

Blitzer: So far no surprises but we do want to let the viewers some changes we are making in projections. We will not make any projections in any states until all the polls have closed in every part of the state so if you are wonder why we have not said anything about Florida, that is why. Ok now lets go to Anderson for some senate projections

Cooper: CNN is now able to project that Former Virginia Governor Mark Warner will defeat Former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore to become the next senator of Virginia . This gives the Democrats their first gain of tonight and remember they need two senate seats in order to take control of that chamber.


Seats Currently Held By Republicans:

Alaska
Colorado
Kentucky
Mississippi(Special)
New Hampshire
New Jersey
North Carolina
New Mexico
Virginia

Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Lousiana
North Carolina(Special)
South Carolina


Blitzer: Ok now lets go over to our panel to ask them why they think this election has been so close. David what is your thoughts given you have worked for both Republican and Democratic Presidents

Gergen: Well there are multiple factors and that is 1. This is an open election meaning neither candidate has incumbency advantage or some cases incumbency disadvantage 2. Both Senator Clinton and Senator Bush are both political insiders meaning it can be harder to excite new voters but at the same time harder for them to scare voters of the other candidate as well 3. President McCain is neither a popular or unpopular president so due to that there isnt either a strong desire by voters to either keep or change control of the white house.

Bennett: I pretty much agree with David and it will be interesting to see how this night goes


7:30:

The polls have closed in 3 states right now and right now we are unable to make projections in Ohio, North Carolina or West Virginia but we are able to make a projection in Georgia and that is Senator Bush will win the state and its 15 electoral votes.



Bush 34
Clinton 3

Blitzer: Senator Bush like the polls indicated has far leads in Virginia, Florida and New Hampshire but CNN is not ready to call those states yet. Senator Bush so far has a narrow lead in Kentucky but its only very narrow so we still have some time to go there. Now lets go over to John King to see how the individual votes in Kentucky is coming

Brown: John So right now Senator Bush seems to be leading by a narrow margin with 2/3 of the vote in

King: Yes he is and to see why lets first go back in time to the last time Kentucky went to the Democrats back in 1996 and as you can see Democrats won that state by first doing really well in Eastern Kentucky as they did back then but the main difference is Western Kentucky where George Bush is doing much better than Bob Dole . Now why it is close and the reason is places like Jefferson County which is the biggest county in the state have grown in size which helps the Democrats .

Brown: Two states many Democrats were hoping for early on in the campaign was Florida and Virginia so while Senator Bush has consistently led in the polls there it seems like they have made inroads

King: Yes but keep in mind Florida went to President McCain by 7.3 points in 2004 and he won Virginia by double digits but if we want to see where Senator Clinton has made some inroads we can see for example Miami Dade a place the President narrowly carried 4 years ago is now being won by Senator Clinton by around 6 to 7 points. For a Democrat to win Florida now days you probably need to win that place by more than 10 given the consistent gains Republicans have made in the panhandle where polls still have not closed.

In Virginia the reason Democrats are optimistic is the fastest growing region Northern Virginia is where they have made good deal inroads. 4 years ago they flipped Fairfax County for the first time since 1964 and now it seems like they will take that county by double digits, and seem to now also be favored to flip Prince William too . The issue is Loudon county is still likely to go Republican and it does seem like a win in Virginia for Democrats in the future will require Loudon and Senator Bush has made gains in some of the rural areas in the states. So I would say Virginia is a classic case of a state of clearly showing signs of being a battleground, but its still a cycle or two early.

Brown: Ok lets go to Anderson now for some updates on the Senate

Cooper: Yes and CNN can project that Senator Jim Hunt will win the most votes in the North Carolina Senate Special Election, but its still too early to tell if he will get a majority or not . In Kentucky the Democrat Steve Beshear currently leads Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell by 6 points but its still to early to say if he will win. Also while this isnt a battleground, we do want to point out that Senator Rockefeller has been reelected in West Virginia meaning that he will either be the next Vice President or remain a Senator come January of 2009 depending on the results of the presidential election


7:51:

Cooper: We have some big news to project when it comes to the senate and that is we can project that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has indeed gone down to defeat to his Democratic rival Steve Beshear. This so far means the Democrats have picked up 2 senate seats which if they can hold that number they will take over the senate come January but of course they have battleground seats in states they hold so its too early to say they will take over but it is indeed good news for them.



Bush 34
Clinton 3

Seats Currently Held By Republicans:

Alaska
Colorado
Kentucky
Mississippi(Special)
New Hampshire
New Jersey
North Carolina
New Mexico
Virginia

Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Lousiana
North Carolina(Special)
South Carolina


Cooper: The polls indicated this would happen Bill but it cannot be good news for the Republicans

Bennett: No it absolutely is not and I would say other than Democrats actually winning the presidency this is will be their biggest individual win of tonight. Senate Majority McConnell was a ruthless and tough political operator and I dont think really anyone in Republican leadership will be able to replace him here .

Carville: I will like to point out that having Steve Beshear run for Senator instead of Governor was a fantastic decision by Democrats as the fact is pretty much any Democrat would have won the Gubernatorial race last year but I dont think many could have beaten Mitch McConnell other than Steve Beshear so that decision turned out to be fantastic.

Blitzer : Before we take a break we do want to let our viewers know that we can project North Carolina will be won by Senator Bush. This is no surprise given how Republican the state is at the presidential level



Bush 49
Clinton 3

Blitzer: Ok we will take a break and be back for a huge round of poll closing soon.

[President Johnson]

Will you continue to cover the next presidency then?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Will you continue to cover the next presidency then?

Yes I plan to take this till the end of that presidency though I will do it in a separate thread. I have some ideas how I would like to name those threads though

If Hillary wins:

- America's Maverick Part 2: The Return of the Clintons
- America's Maverick Part 2: The First Female President

If Bush wins:

- America's Maverick Part 2: President George III
- America's Maverick Part 2: Return of the Bush Dynasty

[2016]

McConnell going down in Kentucky is total disastrous News for Republicans. That means that KY at the Presidential Level is going to be decided by less than 30,000 Votes much like Bunning/Mongiardo Race in the OTL in 2004.

The Bush Camp must be nervous what might be unfolding not only in Jefferson (Louisville), Fayette (Lexington) and Franklin (Frankfort) BUT also what might unfold in Ohio next door.

The Cincinnati Suburbs (Hamilton County) in particular.

However what should make the Clinton Camp nervous that the Networks haven't called West Virginia at the Presidential Level!

Also the KY loss massivly has changed the Senate Landscape. If Democrats winning in KY there is no reason to believe that they won't win in either Colorado and New Mexico.

While it's still very early Republicans have to win in some Blue State.

Looks like Bush might hold a lot of States but Senate & House Republicans are going down to defeat.

[OSR stands with Israel]

CNN: Election Night in America 2008(Part 2)



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DITO8F3KUlE

8:00:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B_U0FyRwvU

Blitzer: It is 8 PM in the East and we can now project that Senator Clinton will win the states of Connecticut, Deleware, Illionis, Maryland, Massachusetts and the District of Columbia while Senator Bush will win the states of Alabama, Mississippi, and Oklahoma . We are unable to make projections in Florida, Maine, Missouri, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Tennessee



Bush 71
Clinton 59

Cooper: CNN is also able to make its first House projection for the night and we can project that these will be the ranges will be

Democrats 211-225
Republicans: 210-224

This means at this moment CNN can say Democrats and not Republicans are the slight favorites for house control though their is still a long way before that happens.

We can also project for the Senate that Senator Jim Hunt will get over 50% and will finish out the term vacated by disgraced former Senator John Edwards.

Seats Currently Held By Republicans:

Alaska
Colorado
Kentucky
Mississippi(Special)
New Hampshire
New Jersey
North Carolina
New Mexico
Virginia

Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Lousiana
North Carolina(Special)
South Carolina

Blitzer: So lets go over to our panel to see their reactions so far at these races

Borger: Well looking at these results I can say Democrats are solid favorites to take the senate right now, the trend in the house is in their favor but so far the Presidency seems completely up for grabs.

Bennett: I wouldnt say anything for the house right now given by those numbers given as well as the numbers given a week ago it is statistically the same. Really everyone has known for this entire campaign the house was gonna be extremely tight and thats what we are projecting at this moment

Borger: That is a fair point but I would argue when overall control is shaping up to be as close as it is, even the slightest trend can be big. Does that mean much no but for example a week ago I would have said Republicans have around a 52% chance of winning the house now I say Democrats have a 52% chance.


8:30:

King: The polls have closed in Arkansas and currently we are unable to make a projection there but we are able to project in Virginia and New Hampshire Senator Bush will carry those states while in West Virginia- Senator Clinton will carry that state



Bush 88
Clinton 64

Blitzer: Lets now go over to John King to see how Ohio a critical battleground state is shaping up to be like

Brown: So right now Senator Clinton has the lead in Ohio but less than 20% is in so how is it shaping

King: Well the reason for that is simply not much of the vote is in and while there is nothing in from Cuyahoga County in yet which would seem to be good news for the Democrats , as you can see there is pretty much nothing in from much of the rural parts of the state which tends to be Republican and nothing in from Hamilton County in which tends to be Republican too. So there is a lot out here but from what we are seeing so far , we can see that in Mahoning County a solidly Democratic area Senator Clinton is up by 26 points which is very strong but if you go back to when Democrats last won the state you can see it her husband Bill Clinton won it by 35 points.

Now many will point our Senator Clinton is actually getting a huge share than former Bill Clinton did and that margin he got was inflated due to the Perot factor and while that may be true the fact is Democrats need to be able to run up the margins as much as possible in places like Clevelend, Akron, Youngstown and all these cities in the North Eastern Part of the state to make up for getting swamped in the rest of the state especially with the fact that Senator Bush is doing very well in South East Ohio unlike Bob Dole.


Brown: What about Pennsylvania

King: Well again it is way way to early and in a place like Pennsylvania the Democratic areas tend to come in first especially from the cities so I think we should wait more from that state as the pattern here tends to be Democrats tend to start out with massive leads and then Republicans tend to close the gap as the night goes on .

Brown: Lets go back to Anderson for a Senate Call

Cooper: Yes Campbell and that is CNN can now project in the South Carolina Senate Race - The Republican Nikki Haley will win and will become the first Indian American Women to ever be elected to the United States Senate. This will also drop the Democrats total to one gain so far

Seats Currently Held By Republicans:

Alaska
Colorado
Kentucky
Mississippi(Special)
New Hampshire
New Jersey
North Carolina
New Mexico
Virginia

Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Lousiana
North Carolina(Special)
South Carolina

Cooper: In Other senate races right now the Democrats hold leads in North Carolina while Republicans hold leads in Mississippi and New Hampshire so far in the night but they are all to early to call. New Jersey is a very back and forth race so far and it is likely we will have to wait many hours before being able to call that one but that could be another huge race here.

8:48:

Blitzer: CNN can now make a major projection and that is Senator Bush will carry Florida and its 27 electoral votes and we can also project that Kentucky and its 8 electoral votes will go narrowly to Senator Bush. As you can see with around 95% of the vote in Senator Bush still holds on to a two point lead in Kentucky so we believe he will indeed carry that state. 

We can also project that in New Jersey a state narrowly carried but the President 4 years ago, that it will indeed flip back to the Democratic column and with that its 15 electoral votes will mark the first flip of the night.



Bush 123
Clinton 79

Blitzer: So John how does this change both candidates path to 270 electoral votes

King: Well if we go to this what if board giving Kentucky to Senator Bush bumps him up to 236 Electoral votes compared to Senator Clinton at 227 and really right now I couldnt tell you with any confidence which way these battlegrounds are heading towards. It is much too early so we will just have to wait for the night to progress.

Blitzer: Ok thanks for the update and we will take a short break

[BigVic]

Florida called for Bush early

[2016]

At the moment this whole Election is about Ohio & Pennsylvania.

If either Side wins both States they are going to be the next President; If they split those which currently I think is the most likely Scenario then we have to look at Wisconsin, Missouri, New Mexico and Oregon.

Thus far Bush has won the Lean States of Florida, Virginia & New Hampshire while Clinton has won the Lean States of West Virginia (no surprise as Senator Rockefeller is her Running Mate) and New Jersey with New Jersey being a flip from 4 years ago.

Kentucky is the only true Toss Up at this Hour that has gone to Bush and only very narrowly.

The early New Jersey Call though may tell us something what might happen in Southeastern Pennsylvania. While John King is right that Democrats pull most of the Votes in PA from Philly & Pittsburgh Presidential Elections in States like PA are increasingly decided in the Suburbs.

If I was Bush I'd be worried about the Collar Counties around Philly given the early New Jersey Call for Clinton.

The closeness of the Kentucky Race bodes ill for Bush in Southwestern Ohio particularly the Cincinnati Suburbs (Hamilton County). While Bush might still win Hamilton Clinton ain't get clobbered like Biden did there four years ago.

Although it's very early I have Clinton narrowly favoured winning the Electoral College either with 271 Electoral College Votes or excatly 270 depending on Maine's 2nd Congressional District.

All what she needs to do is winning Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Oregon and Wisconsin + the Overall State of Maine & 1st District (those 3 EC Votes leaning her way).

I also don't think Ralph Nader will be a Spoiler in OR & WI like he was for Gore in the OTL.

Bush has to win at least one of the Dukakis States to win the Presidency.

[LAB-LIB]

Looks like Bush is favored right now. I have to say, considering the map in 2010, if he wins it could be a bloodbath for the Republicans.

[OSR stands with Israel]

CNN: Election Night in America 2008(Part 3)



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DITO8F3KUlE

9:00:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B_U0FyRwvU

Blitzer: It is 9 PM in the East and CNN can now project that Senator Bush will carry the President McCain's home state of Arizona, Wyoming, North and South Dakota, Nebraska, and his home state of Texas while we can project Senator Clinton will carry her home state of New York and Rhode Island. CNN is currently unable to make projections in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Louisiana, Colorado and New Mexico



Bush 187
Clinton 114

Blitzer: Now lets go over to Anderson for some Senate Calls

Cooper : Yes Anderson and that is CNN can now project Senator Roger Wicker will finish out the term of former Senator Trent Lott in Mississippi. While this isnt a battleground we can also project that Senator George W Bush has been re-elected as senator of Texas so if he doesnt end up winning the presidency tonight, he will still remain a senator of his state.


Seats Currently Held By Republicans:

Alaska
Colorado
Kentucky
Mississippi(Special)
New Hampshire
New Jersey
North Carolina
New Mexico
Virginia

Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Lousiana
North Carolina(Special)
South Carolina


Blitzer: So lets now go back to our panel to see their reactions so far

Begala: Listen for Democrats who may seem panicked because the electoral gap I just want to remind everyone that there are no huge states left to come in for the Republicans while we still have California left and add that in with Michigan a state that Senate Clinton leads in and what Senator Biden carried 4 years ago, Senator Clinton would go up to 186 Electoral votes which means this race is still pretty much a nail biter .

Bennett: Yes while I as a Republican certainly like that Senator Bush has this early lead the fact is I agree with Paul and want to tell Republicans not to start celebrating yet cause we still have a long way to go and I cannot tell you with any confidence who really is the favorite right now .

Gergen: Absolutely and the fact is if Republicans did not have the lead they did now I would say things would not look good for them given their big states have come in while the Democrats big states havent all come in yet.

9:17:

Blitzer: CNN is now able to project that Senator Clinton will win the home state of her husband, Former President Bill Clinton's, Arkansas and also win 3 of the 4 electoral votes in Maine while we can project Senator Bush will win Tennessee the home state of his running mate Bill Frist.  



Bush 198
Clinton 123

Blitzer: Lets go over to John King now to discuss some of these battlegrounds

Brown: So John why is it we have been only be able to call 3 of the 4 electoral votes in Maine

King: Well that is cause Maine allocates its electoral votes by district so while Senator Clinton was able to win Maine statewide and the first district in Maine, the 2nd is much more of a battleground. This also makes the Ralph Nader a factor here and as we can see he is getting over 6% here and the difference between Senator Bush and Clinton is less than a point here and keeps going back and forth so this is a race we should be able to watch. Keep in mind 1 electoral vote could be big here as well.

Brown: Senator Bush early on in the campaign thought he potentially could put Michigan in play but while we havent called it yet the state does not look good for him.

King: No it does not and a huge reason for that is the Detroit Suburbs. The last time the Republicans won this state back in 1988 you can see not only did Former President George Bush win counties like Oakland and Macomb, he got over 60% of the vote in both those counties which let him wipe out the deficit in places like Wayne County and win the state big. Now 20 years later you can see both those counties are now narrowly going for Senator Clinton and while they are very close the fact is instead of helping wipe out the Republican deficit in Detroit , it is only adding to it and that makes it very hard for a Republican to win here.

The suburbs decide close elections in America and the fact is over the past 20 years they have trended more and more Democratic in the state of Michigan which is why Republicans have not won the state in 20 years now.

9:32:

Blitzer: CNN has a major projection to make and that is Senator Clinton will win the state of Michigan and with it keep 17 important electoral votes in the Democratic column tonight.



Bush 198
Clinton 140

Borger: This wasnt really a surprise but winning Michigan was absolutely important and Michigan Republicans have a lot of soul searching to do given the fact that they have not won a Presidential election here in 20 years, a Gubernatorial race in 10 and two years ago the only Republican to be senator in the state in 30 years lost.

Castellanos : This is in my opinion very much over exaggerating things given we controlled the gubernatorial office for 12 years before losing it in 2002 and 2006 was a reelection year for the Democrats and 2010 is expected to be very much winnable for us.

Border: I disagree with that Alex as the fact is even 4 years ago when the President was handily reelected he lost Michigan so the fact is there is something there is some thing Michigan Republicans are doing wrong and if they want to win they need to figure what is wrong and fix it.

Blitzer: Lets go over to Anderson for a senate call

Cooper: Yes and that is we can project in New Hampshire- Senator John Sununu has been reelected

Seats Currently Held By Republicans:

Alaska
Colorado
Kentucky
Mississippi(Special)
New Hampshire
New Jersey
North Carolina
New Mexico
Virginia

Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Lousiana
North Carolina(Special)
South Carolina


9:46:

Cooper : We have another huge senate projection to make and that is we can project in Louisiana- Senator Mary Landrieu has been re-elected over her Republican opponent. We are unable to make a projection in any of these races but so far the Democrats hold leads in North Carolina, New Jersey, New Mexico while the Republicans hold a lead so far in Colorado.

Seats Currently Held By Republicans:

Alaska
Colorado
Kentucky
Mississippi(Special)
New Hampshire
New Jersey
North Carolina
New Mexico
Virginia

Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Lousiana
North Carolina(Special)
South Carolina

Anderson: Now lets go over to John for an update at our what if board

King: Yes Anderson and that is as you can see Democrats have 48 seats currently and the fact is nobody really thinks they will lose either the Montana or the Iowa senate races so if you add that to their total that means they are at 50 meaning they will only need one more win to take the senate. As you pointed out Anderson the Democrats are leading in 3 more senate seats right now so really at this point the Republicans do need a miracle to keep control of the senate like they have for 14 years at this point.

Brown: So more of Ohio has come in and right now it seems like Senator Bush is ahead

King: Yes he is Campbell and if you go county by county you can see Senator Bush right now is winning Hamilton County by more than 5 points which was expected and also leads in Lake County narrowly a belweather county in Ohio. Now there are still lots of votes to count here in Ohio and while there are a lot more Republican counties than Democratic , NE Ohio is the most populated part of the state so I will say we just have to count the votes.

Brown: What about in Pennsylvania

King: Like I said the overall margin right now still does not matter but if you go county by county you can see two distinct trends . In the suburbs around Philadelphia you can see inroads made by Senator Clinton and here are two examples, in Montogmery County a place the President only lost by 4 points in 2004, Senator Bush is losing by 10 points and losing in Bucks county a place the President won 4 years ago. Chester County a place the President won by double digits 4 years ago now is in the single digits range so you can see the Philadelphia suburbs have moved for Clinton.

Brown: So why are we not able to call the state

King: That is a great question and the reason is this region right here NE PA, which was Senator Biden's home region and you can see for example Luzerne County a county Senator Biden won by 9 points 4 years ago is only going to Senator Clinton by 3 points and Lakawanna county a place Senator Biden won by a whopping 23 points 4 years ago is only going to Senator Clinton by 16 points so far so Senator Bush has made inroads in NE Pennsylvania.

Now of course Senator Bush has to do more than counter the inroads and so far he has not been able to take that extra step yet but we will wait for more of the vote to come in

Carville: I would definitely say Senator Clinton has the advantage in Pennsylvania as the fact is the Philli suburbs do add up to more votes than North East Pennsylvania and so far Southwest Pennsylvania is staying static from 4 years ago which is certainly not good news for Senator Bush in that state.

I would also like to add that Senator Landrieu winning in Louisiana is great news and it will be nice to have at least one lever of power after 8 years of not having any though it will be even better to have a trifecta ourselves and that is very much in the running right now.

Blitzer: We will take a break and be back for the 10 PM poll closings

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Since you had a Dem win TX-GOV 2006, and the incumbent Rep Senator simultaniously run for re-election and for President in 2008, that means they either lose the Presidency and their party loses the Senate in the event of a Senate tie, or they win the Presidency and Dems get an extra Senate seat from the appointment.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Since you had a Dem win TX-GOV 2006, and the incumbent Rep Senator simultaniously run for re-election and for President in 2008, that means they either lose the Presidency and their party loses the Senate in the event of a Senate tie, or they win the Presidency and Dems get an extra Senate seat from the appointment.

https://ballotpedia.org/Filling_vacancies_in_the_U.S._Senate

Yes you are right so yah the Democrats will effectively have control of the senate once the 10 PM poll closing happens no matter what the outcome is

Edit: Actually given that Hillary Clinton's seat would be filled by Governor Giuliani and New York does not have a same party law then it means neither party would take over the senate with only 50 votes as they would drop down to 49 by January 20th 2009 at the latest .

[2016]

A couple of thoughts on the Senate Races:
CNN not having called the New Jersey Race despite Clinton winning it on the Presidential Level is good News for the Republican Christine Todd Whitman.
On the flip side North Carolina not be called between Kay Hagan and Elizabeth Dole despite Bush winning there is bad News for Dole.

Ohio where Bush is apparently up 5 will tighten somewhat if there is still vote out in Cuyahoga (Cleveland), Lucas (Toledo) and Franklin (Columbus).

James Carville is correctly pointing out that Bush isn't going to offset the margins Clinton is getting in the collar counties around Philly with what he gets out of northeastern PA so Pennsylvania is indeed tilting towards Hillary.

[BigVic]

Going to come down to several states in the South

[2016]

OSR,
I wonder if you bring in Donald Trump or Barack Obama into the CNN Election Center during the 10pm or 11pm ET Hour. My guess is Obama is Home in Illinois while Trump is in New York.

Trump is probably going to argue that he would have put Ohio & Pennsylvania away already. He is probably also going to say something like this "Look, I like the Clintons. It's obviously very close right now but I am optimistic Hillary will pull this out".

[President Johnson]

Still pretty much insane that Hillary won Arkansas and West Virginia here. I still somehow doubt she would have in actual 2008 against McCain.

[OSR stands with Israel]

CNN: Election Night in America 2008(Part 4)



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DITO8F3KUlE

10:00:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B_U0FyRwvU

Blitzer: It is 10 PM in the East and we can now project that Senator Bush will carry the states of Montana and Utah but we are unable to make projects in Iowa and Nevada



Bush 206
Clinton 140

Blitzer: Now lets go over to Anderson to see our latest projection for the house

Cooper: Yes Wolf and here is our latest projection for the house at this moment

Democrats: 214-223
Republicans: 212-221

Cooper: As for the Senate given the Democrats are now at 50 senate seats after we have been able to project they will retain their seats in Montana and Iowa , they only need to win one more seat to take over the senate for the first time since 1994. Currently they hold leads in New Mexico, North Carolina and New Jersey meaning even if the Democrats lose their lead in two of those states the Democrats would still be able to take control of the senate.

Blitzer: Lets go over to our panel to hear more about their reaction to these results so far

Begala : It is very exciting Wolf cause at this point I pretty much see no way in which the senate remains in hands of the Republicans meaning we will have one chamber of congress for the first time in 14 years, and heck first time of having any power for 8 years which will be nice. As for the House I do like where things are trending cause now we are two seats ahead of the Republicans in these projections and I would say we are clearly favored to take over the house at this point too.

Bennett: I wouldnt say clearly favored but favored for sure and it is disappointing but I am not counting the Republicans out just yet in the House as a 2 seat difference isnt really much. Now in the senate I pretty much agree we are gonna lose control of that chamber and while it is disappointing , given the map you cant say its surprising.

As for the presidency though I do think Ohio will probably go to Senator Bush at this point, and Pennsylvania to Senator Clinton meaning will have a very close election that could be deciided by Missouri, New Mexico or even that one electoral vote in Maine which is crazy to think about but we are here .

10:27:

Blitzer: CNN is now able to project that Senator Bush will carry the state of Louisiana while Senator Clinton will carry the state of Minnesota.



Bush 215
Clinton 150

Blitzer: With us now from Clinton Headquarters at the Javits Center is Businessman and former Democratic Primary Rival Donald Trump. So Mr.Trump what do you think of these results so far

Trump : Well Wolf, I think we all knew it would be very close which is why Senator Feingold and I worked very hard in this campaign for Senator Clinton to ensure unity. I can tell you that I am proud that so far it has worked in states like New Jersey and Pennsylvania is looking very good too but this is gonna be close.

Blitzer: Why do you think this election is so close

Trump: It is simple and that is the media did a terrible job in this election in my opinion. Not a single question was asked to Senator Bush

Blitzer: Why do you think we did such a bad job

Trump: Let me finish, Not a single question was asked to Senator Bush about his radical theocratic plans and let me tell you they are theocratic. Senator Bush was never challenged even one time on his absolutely ridiculous plans on foreign affairs which by the way would get the rest of the world including our allies to hate us. On the other hand Senator Clinton who by the way is one of the smartest people I know and someone who would be a fantastic president had every single one of her plans attacked every single day by the press. So the fact is there was double standards and just cause the dishonest Press may not want to see the Bush Family lose again , it does not change the fact they deserve to lose.

Blitzer: Do you think you could have done better

Trump : People close to me say I would have done better but the fact is Hillary Clinton will win and will be a fantastic president

Blitzer: Last question, are you gonna run for Mayor Next Year

Trump: Let me tell you this, a lot of people are gonna like whatever decision I make next on my political future

Seats Currently Held By Republicans:

Alaska
Colorado
Kentucky
Mississippi(Special)
New Hampshire
New Jersey
North Carolina
New Mexico
Virginia

Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Lousiana
North Carolina(Special)
South Carolina

10:43:

Cooper : We have some major news to project

Breaking News: Democrats Win Control of the United States Senate
Cooper : Yes and that is CNN can now project that The Democrats will take control of the senate for the first time in 14 years . The reason we can project this is that in the New Mexico Senate Race we can project the Democrat Tom Udall will defeat the Republican Heather Wilson to be the next senator of that state which means the Democrats will have at least 51 senate seats come next January which is enough to be in the majority.


Seats Currently Held By Republicans:

Alaska
Colorado
Kentucky
Mississippi(Special)
New Hampshire
New Jersey
North Carolina
New Mexico
Virginia

Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Lousiana
North Carolina(Special)
South Carolina

Cooper : So James it seems like you are very happy

Carville : Absolutely and the fact is we could have as much as 55 senate seats come January though of course if Senator Clinton wins that number would go down to 54 which though would still be great .

Cooper : How  do you think these other races will go

Carville : Well I think We will take New Jersey and North Carolina though Colorado looks tough and in that race republicans deserve credit for convincing Bill Owens to run otherwise I think we for sure take that seat as well .

Castellanos: I do want congratulate the Democrats for taking the senate and congratulate DNC chair Howard Dean for doing a really great job in recruiting candidates cause 4 years ago I don’t think anyone thought the democrats could take back the senate by now

Border : Yes The fact is Democrats have recruited very strong candidates for the past two cycles while Republicans have more or less gotten complacent which is why proclamations of any party being dominant are premature as what naturally happens is that party tends to get complacent and the other party tends to try harder in recruiting better candidates and that is exactly what happened over the past 4 years .

Cooper : Wait let’s go over to Wolf as he does have a projection

Blitzer : Yes Anderson and that is CNN can now project that Senator Bush will win the state of Colorado and it’s 9 electoral votes .



Bush 224
Clinton 150

Blitzer : Now let’s go over to John King to see how this impacts the electoral math

King : Yes Wolf and really again now yes the margin between Senator Bush and Clinton seems huge but I want to show something. The polls are about to close in the west and pretty much everyone will tell you that Senator Clinton will win California and Hawaii while Senator Bush will win Idaho . If you do that , it gives Senator Bush 228 votes while it gives Senator Clinton 209. Now many will say well she’s still down 19 and while yes  that is true given these results so far she should also be favored to keep her lead in Iowa and also win Washington while Senator Bush probably only takes Nevada and later on Alaska for sure . So once you do that you are back at Senator Bush at 236 and Senator Clinton at 227 which really isn’t much of a change from our map going in .

Brown : So it does seem like though Ohio is probably gonna go for Senator Bush and Pennsylvania for Senator Clinton

King : Ok let’s also add those states to their columns and if you do you get to Senator Bush at 256 Senator Clinton at 248 and we are once again down to Missouri , Wisconsin  New Mexico , Oregon and that one electoral vote in Maine to decide it . Wisconsin, Oregon and that first district of Maine have relatively high  Nader factors with That district having the most and Wisconsin the least .

Brown : So in that case this election will be closer than even 1960

King : At this point more than likely

 

[2016]

I think New Jersey will be the tightest of the Senate Races. The Democratic Candidate Barbara Buono is just not a great Senate Recruit while Christine Todd Whitman has been a great Republican Senator.

Elizabeth Dole losing in North Carolina and possibly Ted Stevens in Alaska are self-inflicted, Dole because she barely spent time in the State and Stevens because of his corruption charges.

I also think CNN & John King (I know he doesn't want to hear this) made a mistake 24 Hours before the Election by moving Nevada into Lean Bush. Hillary winning nationally 56-39 among Hispanics. If you extrapolate from that NV looks more like a Toss Up to me and New Mexico more like Lean Clinton.

Hillary doesn't need Maine's 2nd Congressional District.

If she as expected wins California, Hawaii, Washington State, Iowa (which were all Safe Clinton or Lean Clinton) + picks up Oregon, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania (She seems now favoured in PA given the outstanding Vote) she gets excatly to 270 Electoral College Votes.

We probably are going to have to wait until the wee hours of the Morning before we have a Decision and if it's really that close I fear Bush might contest the Election.

Depends on how close the Individual States are but there could be some Recounts and the Nation will have to wait a little longer.

[OSR stands with Israel]

CNN: Election Night in America 2008(Part 5)



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DITO8F3KUlE

11:00:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B_U0FyRwvU

Blitzer: It is 11 in the east and the polls have closed in the West and CNN is now able to project that Senator Clinton will carry California the biggest state by far in the union and Hawaii while Senator Bush will carry Idaho. We are unable to make projections in Washington and Oregon at this moment.



Bush 228
Clinton 209

Blitzer: Senator Bush currently holds a lead in Ohio, in Wisconsin, and in Nevada while Senator Clinton currently holds leads in Pennsylvania and Iowa while Missouri and New Mexico are virtual dead heats. Lets go over to our panel to get their reactions by these poll closing

Begala: It is still very early in Wisconsin as keep in mind Wisconsin is the opposite of Pennsylvania in which the Republican areas tend to come in before the Democratic one so I dont think anyone should be making judgements but I will say that I do think Wisconsin and Oregon will vote together so whichever candidate wins both those states will win the presidency

Gergen: I think this election will still come down to Missouri cause in my belief Senator Clinton will end up winning Pennsylvania, Iowa, Wisconsin and Oregon and Washington while Senator Bush takes the rest not named Missouri. Doing this would give Senator Clinton 265 electoral votes compared to Senator Bush with 262 meaning Missouri will decide the ball game.

The Question though that wont be answered for a while is how will whoever ends up win the presidency manage to unite the country cause its gonna be awfully tough doing so given how close this election will end up being.

Bennett: I think at the end of the day whoever wins likely will not have a honeymoon period so a lot of the healing of this close election in my opinion will come down to what either of them accomplish in office. Now the opposite could also happen and the winner could also unite the country against them like what happened to former President Carter from 1976 to 1980.

11:33

Blitzer: CNN is now able to project that Senator Hillary Clinton will carry the state of Pennsylvania and its 21 electoral votes while Senator Bush will carry the state of Ohio and its 20 electoral votes



Bush 248
Clinton 230

Blitzer: Huge news John

King: Yes it is as that means we will for sure now be going down to the wire electorally. The state to watch is Missouri at this moment which has been going back and forth for the night . So as we can see Democrats tend to do good in Kansas City and St Louis with the Republicans doing good in the rural areas and like in many other close states its the suburbs that tend to decide how the state is going.

A Democratic leaning suburb in the state is Jefferson County so far is going to Senator Clinton by 8 points, and while yes the county has gone Republican the past two elections the last time a Democrats won this state former President Clinton won the county by 12 points while carrying the state by around 6 points .

Brown: Wouldnt you say that is good news for Senator Clinton here

King: Well the reason why this is such a back and forth race is Senator Bush again has made gains in the rural parts of the state so to offset that Senator Clinton must do better in the Metro Areas. Another example of this is St. Louis county a close in subub of St.Louis and a county President McCain actually won 4 years ago is now going to Senator Clinton by double digits which no Democrat has done since 1964

Brown: So how big of gains has Senator Bush made in rural areas to actually made to keep this competitive

King: Well take Ripley County for example a county that former President Clinton won in 1996, and President McCain won by over 15 points twice is now going to Senator Bush by around 20 points and he has done that in many areas in the states and those votes do add up. So again we are gonna have to wait and see all night for the vote to come in but while Senator Bush leads at the moment there are more votes out in the urban areas of the state as well as the battleground suburban ones . So the question is are the votes in the suburbs have yet to come in from Democratic precincts or Republican ones cause that could tell us who the remaining suburban vote will benefit.

Brown: Ok lets give it back to Anderson for a senate call

Cooper: Yes Campbell and that is CNN can now project that in Colorado- The Republican Bill Owens will win that senate race over the Democrat Mark Udall and in North Carolina- the Democrat Kay Hagan will unseat Senator Elizabeth Dole to become the next senator from that state. That gives Democrats 52 Senate compared to Republicans at 46. New Jersey is still very too close to call and that race could go to a recount but we will have to wait and see.
 
Seats Currently Held By Republicans:

Alaska
Colorado
Kentucky
Mississippi(Special)
New Hampshire
New Jersey
North Carolina
New Mexico
Virginia

Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Lousiana
North Carolina(Special)
South Carolina


11:47

Blitzer: CNN is now able to project that Senator Bush will carry the state of Nevada and its 5 electoral votes while Senator Clinton will carry the state of Iowa and its 7 electoral votes



Bush 253
Clinton 237

Blitzer: Lets now go over to Dana Bash who is at Bush headquarters over in Dallas , Texas to see how they think things are going

Bash: Yes the crowd as you can tell is very excited and nervous at the same time but I was talking to people in the Bush campaign and they think at this moment they still have multiple paths to 270 but also have stated that it is very possible that we wont know who a winner is tonight and are prepared for what could be some recounts in the remaining states which could drag the election out.

Blitzer: Ok lets now go to Jessica Yellin at Hillary Clinton headquarters in Manhattan to see how they think things are going

Yellin: The crowd is more optimistic for sure then they were earlier in the night but still very nervous. As for top members of the Clinton campaign they have told despite Senator Bush holding a narrow lead they think when Milwaukee comes in they will carry that state. They though are also preparing for a potential recount battle which could drag the election out

Blitzer: John Would you agree with that analysis

King: I would say yes I do think at the moment Wisconsin probably will fall into the hands of Senator Clinton tonight but we should wait and see . Also if you want to see a nightmare scenario we could be potentially having I want to show you something.

If you give Senator Clinton Wisconsin, Missouri, and Washington she gets to 269 electoral votes and if you give Senator Bush then New Mexico, Oregon , Alaska and that one district in Maine he gets to 269. In which case the election gets thrown to the house of representatives and the fact is it is very possible that neither party will come out of tonight with a majority of state delegations so this election could really not be decided till early January of next year.

Blitzer: Bill looking at the exit polls do you think that is possible

Schnider: At this point really anything is possible so I will say we cant tell

O'Brien: So Ralph Nader could really have ended up making this possible

Schnider: Oh yes as without the Nader factor , Senator Clinton would likely win Washington, Oregon, Wisconsin and probably New Mexico as well which would give her 271 electoral votes which is more than enough to win even without Missouri in her column.

Blitzer: Ok we will have to take a short break but we will be back to cover more of this incredibly tight election

[President Johnson]

Clinton should win all remaining calls except Alaska.

[2016]

If I were a Clinton Campaign Adviser I would definitly challenge the early Nevada Call. That seems very suspicious to me. They called that State awfully early. Do they know that it usually takes some time to count the Votes in Clark County (Las Vegas)?

If Dane County (Madison) and Milwaukee County (remember that's the City & County) is still out Hillary is in good shape in Wisconsin.

I am noticing a trend though: Clinton is doing very, very well in the Suburbs in pretty much every Battleground State and I mean considerably better than Biden in 2004. That should be making the Bush Camp very nervous. That suburban Vote in St. Louis & Kansas City are very alarming for Bush and very good for her.

269-269 would be an absolute Nightmare Scenario. If that happens we won't know the Result until January.

[OSR stands with Israel]

CNN: Election Night in America 2008(Part 6)



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DITO8F3KUlE

12:27:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B_U0FyRwvU

Blitzer: CNN can now project that Senator Clinton will carry the state of Washington and its 11 electoral votes and while its no surprise it is still an important win for her. On the other hand we can project that Senator Bush will carry one electoral vote in Maine as he will win Maine's 2nd district.



Bush 254
Clinton 248

Blitzer: Currently Senator Bush holds a lead in all the remaining states but one key thing to keep in mind is his lead is continuing to drop in Wisconsin as more of the votes come in , Missouri continues to be back and forth depending on whether a Republican area reports or a Democratic one , New Mexico currently like Wisconsin has seen his lead drop and too little has come in Oregon for us so its way too early to call. So lets now go over to Anderson for another house update

Cooper: Yes and so far CNN can now project the new house will have:

Democrats: 216-222
Republicans: 213-219

Blitzer: Ok thanks Anderson so now lets go over to our panel for more reaction of these results

Borger: Well what I can tell looking at these results is these remaining states other than Alaska will all probably come within a point. My best guess at the moment would be Senator Clinton wins Wisconsin, Senator Bush wins New Mexico and I have real no idea how Missouri or Oregon will turn out.

Carville: Looking at these numbers I would say we probably will win Missouri and Wisconsin meaning we either have to win Oregon or New Mexico otherwise it is a 269-269 tie. One good news though is that I do think we will have the House as well when this night is over so I do think the 269-269 tie scenario favors us as well.

Blitzer: David you have worked in both Democratic and Republican administrations who have had the opposite party control the House. How big would you see a difference between a Democratic controlled house and a Republican one really will be for Senator Clinton if she wins given the margin will be very small for either considering that liberal leaning Republicans can give her 218 votes on some stuff and conservative leaning democratic can deny it on some stuff.

Gregen: Oh it absolutely makes a difference cause the fact is a Republican House will also have Republicans who head each committee chair so they can keep many bills you would like from coming from the floor itself. So now not only do you have to compromise with individual Republicans but leadership and that would require more compromises which President Reagan and Clinton both made but I can tell you didnt want to make.

So while the difference between say 217 and 219 seats may not seem that different , the fact that 219 lets you control the powerful positions while 217 does not does make a huge difference.

Blitzer: What about Senator Bush and his agenda since at the very least he will not have control of the Senate and maybe not the House as well.

Gergen: Well Senator Bush does have experience in working with the opposite party as Texas Democrats controlled at least one house of the legislature during his entire tenure as governor but Washington is much harder. One reason is that unlike in Texas he wont have had a real mandate as many would argue the only reason he has a chance to win at this moment is thanks to Ralph Nader and number two parties that just take the White House tend to have a larger honeymoon than parties that keep it as his father saw back in 1989.

O'Brien: I would just like to add that if Ralph Nader is the reason they lost the White House, Democrats would have even more reason to hold firm on many issues and you could see a repeat of his father presidency where you see him mostly focused on foreign policy and a more non partisan domestic agenda.

Bennett: Listen I think education reform for one is something both parties could come together on and I still see Senator Bush being able to pass that into law no matter what the shape of congress is.

Blitzer: Would you consider being education secretary again

Bennett: No

Laughter


1:00:

Bitzer: The polls have finally closed in Alaska and we can project that Senator Bush will carry that state like expected. We also in the state of Wisconsin are now showing that Senator Clinton has narrowly pulled ahead of Senator Bush in that state which is indeed big news with around 96% of the vote in so far.



Bush 257
Clinton 248

Blitzer: Now lets go over to the Senate Race where we have a call we can make

Cooper: Yes and that is in the New Jersey Senate Race we can project the Democrat Barbara Buono will upset Republican Christine Todd Whitman to become the next Senator of that state. As we can see with 99% of the vote in she holds a little more than half a point lead against Senator Whitman and many could point to this upset being possible thanks to the libertarian candidate Murray Sabrin getting 3% of the vote .

Blitzer: As we know Mr.Sabrin with a few days before the election got an endorsement from Ron Paul which could have been a spoiler here

Schnider: Yes it very much could have been a spoiler since according to our exit poll where we can see almost half of his supporters have said they made up their minds to support him in the last week of the campaign which is around when Congressman Paul endorsed him.

Borger: Listen I say this whenever a third party campaign comes up and that is the voters have a right to vote third party and if Senator Whitman didnt do a good job convincing those voters why she would be better than now Senator Elect Buono then it is the fault of her campaign. So yes with that the Democrats will have at least 53 senate seats

Cooper: Yes and it could go as high as 54 if they win Alaska. Of Course if it is very close we may not know the winner in Alaska for a few days and that is what we expect as of this moment

Seats Currently Held By Republicans:

Alaska
Colorado
Kentucky
Mississippi(Special)
New Hampshire
New Jersey
North Carolina
New Mexico
Virginia

Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Lousiana
North Carolina(Special)
South Carolina


1:28:

Blitzer: CNN Can now project that Senator Hillary Clinton will carry Wisconsin for the first time in the night and with that take the lead in the overall electoral count for the first time tonight



Clinton 258
Bush 257

Blitzer: It seems like Ralph Nader got around 3.7% of the vote here in Wisconsin which is good but Senator Bush was hoping for it to be over 4.2% really

King: Yup and he will end up losing Wisconsin by a little less than half a percentage point.

Castellanos: It is disappointing and also means though now that Senator Bush must win Missouri to get over 270 but while I am confident about New Mexico I am not about Missouri cause while we lead there is more left in the Democratic areas which is not at all good.

Blitzer: We do have a statement from Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan who has said that we do expect all the votes to be in within the next hour hour and a half so we should know who the winner of Missouri is by then

Castellanos: Well hopefully its Senator Bush but I am not really hopefully right now


1:50:

Blitzer: CNN can now project that Senator Bush will carry the state of New Mexico and its 5 electoral votes



Bush 262
Clinton 258


Blitzer: Lets now go over to Campbell and John to see how the remaining two states are going right now

Brown: Lets first start with Missouri

King: Well right now Senator Bush has less than a hundred vote lead left and with St Louis the last place to report it is almost impossible for me to see Senator Bush carrying the state. Now we at CNN will wait till those votes come in but for now I would say it would be basically a miracle if he wins that state

Brown: What about Oregon

King: Well Senator Bush still leads here with nearly 2/3 of the vote in and here is some very good news for Senator Bush and that is Ralph Nader is getting around 5.5% of the vote here which is very bad news for Senator Clinton. One are we can see is a bellweather county in Oregon and a county that slightly tilts a little more Democratic than the rest of the state and that is Washington County. Now while it is good that this county has flipped from 4 years ago what is not good news at all is Senator Clinton is only leading here by around 2 points and as you can see Ralph Nader is getting over 2 points here.

Multnomah County a place where Democrats really do need to runup the vote again , they are only winning this county 63-37 and the reason for that is again Ralph Nader is getting 9% here. So really this is a state that without the Ralph Nader factor would have gone to Senator Clinton but the fact is Ralph Nader is reducing her margins all across the Portland Area, In Eugene , in the Newport Coast Area and that is really hurting Senator Clinton pretty badly here.

Brown: What would you say are around the chances of both sides now winning Oregon

King: I would put Missouri likely Clinton and closer to Safe than Lean at this point and Oregon I would put as Leaning Bush but we still have a ways to go here.

Brown: Doing that would mean we would finish the election 269-269

King: Yes and remember in that case each house delegation would cast a ballot for president and right now we are projecting Republicans will control 23 Delegations , Democrats will control 24 with 1 being tied and 2 being undecided and that is New Mexico and Colorado

Brown: Which is the seat

King: It is New Mexico 1st District where the Democrat Martin Heinrich is leading so far and in Colorado Congresswomen Marilyn Musgrave is locked in a tight battle with the Democrat and while she is winning we still have not called that .

Brown: Very Interesting

King: Yes it will be what we will talk more about this if it happens

Blitzer: Ok we will take a short break and be right back for more

[2016]

You got to be kidding me!
I had a sense that Missouri & Wisconsin were going for Clinton given how well she did in the Suburbs.

New Mexico though is a big disappointment given that Democrat Bill Richardson is Governor there.

The Clinton Campaign has some tough Questions to answer why her 56-39 lead nationally among Hispanics did not translate into a win in States like Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.

[BigVic]

The exit polls were well off. Can’t believe how close this election is

[Politician]

As soon as Bush won ME-2 I thought "This is going to be a tie isn't it?"

[OSR stands with Israel]

You got to be kidding me!
I had a sense that Missouri & Wisconsin were going for Clinton given how well she did in the Suburbs.

New Mexico though is a big disappointment given that Democrat Bill Richardson is Governor there.

The Clinton Campaign has some tough Questions to answer why her 56-39 lead nationally among Hispanics did not translate into a win in States like Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.

Keep in mind 56-39 is still not that great for a democrat with Hispanics. Keep in mind Bush is still over performing McCain 2000 in terms of Margins with Hispanics (who lost by 20 vs 17) and another thing to keep in mind is the Nader effect as hurt Clinton out in the West which is why she is not overperforming Biden in the West as in other regions.