The Presidency of America's Maverick

[2016]

It is looking more and more likely that Harold Ford Jr will will win if you say that 91 % of the Vote is in. The remaining Vote should be from Nashville and Memphis.

I think Democrats will win either in Washington State or Rhode Island as well. They are having a good Night despite not winning either of the Congressional Chambers.

[OSR stands with Israel]

CNN: Election Night in America 2006(Part 7):



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-YxvEl9prU

1:07:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rchmoqssrQw&t=0s

Blitzer: We can finally make a projection in the Gubernatorial Race in Massachusetts- as CNN can now project that Governor Mitt Romney will be narrowly reelected to a 2nd term

Schnider: Looking at New England its stunning how Republican it is at the Gubernatorial level given how Democratic it is at the Presidential one. Also you can say the same at some of these plains and Mountain West states at a different direction

Blitzer: Do you think that Governor Romney now could potentially be a contender for the Republican nomination two years from now

Schnider: Its hard for me to see it as his lane of a Moderate Eastern Republican is very likely to be taken by Governor Giuliani and unless for some reason he doesn't run , I cant see Governor Romney getting passed him to fill that lane. Can he but it would be very hard.

Gingrich: This Field probably will be very large as you likely in my opinion will see one of the Bush brothers run for President, Governors Giuliani, Governor Romney, Senator Thompson, Senator Allen and the list goes on an on

Blitzer: What about you

Gingrich: Dont plan on it but who knows(laughter)

1:27:

Breaking News: Speaker Dennis Hastert Announces he will step down as Speaker
Blitzer: There you have it , after 8 years of being the Speaker of the House, Speaker Dennis Hastert announces he will step down as speaker and his role in Republican Leadership at the end of the current session. We were told that he had pledged not to run for speaker again if the party lost 20 or more seats and as we can see from our current forecasts we expect the Republicans to lose at least 20 seats:

Republicans: 224-227(-20 - -23)
Democrats: 208-211(+20 - +23)

So Bill who will be in line to be the next Speaker

Schnider: We are hearing that the Republicans will pick either Senator Majority Leader John Boehner or Senate Majority Whip Roy Blunt to be their next leader which then means they will be the next speaker but of course a list of possible names could get larger

Blitzer: Hold on as we have a senate call to make and that is in Tennessee- We can project that Congressman Harold Ford Jr will Defeat the Republican Bob Corker to be the next senator of that state.

Republicans: 50(-5)
Democrats: 47(+4)
Independents: 1(+1)

Blitzer: Now with us is Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid. Senator Reid any disappointment in not taking the senate

Reid: While I obviously would have preferred us to the Senate, the fact is given the hole we were in it wasnt really realistic to expect that it would. In fact the fact you have already projected that we will gain at least 5 seats and potentially up to 7 is huge news and Id say puts us in a good position to force the Republicans to govern more from the center than the right over the next two years.

Blitzer: If you get 7 seats will you consider yourself unlucky that a 3 way race in Maryland is probably why you wont be majority leader in that situation

Reid: Listen I feel getting to 7 would be a huge accomplishment in itself and its not my job to worry about what-ifs but rather to lead my party over the next two years to take more of a charge on many of these issues. Will it be easy given the other side would control the senate no, but it will be a lot easier to do so with 48, 49, or 50 senators than it was with 43.

Blitzer: Last question, will you guys move to help get immigration refrom passed this session or wait till next session

Reid: It is my hope we can pass it over the next 6 weeks as we have already gotten it to the conference committee and my hope is we can pass it so we don't have to start this process all over again next year.

Blitzer: Senator Reid thanks for coming on

Reid : No problem

Blitzer: So Jeff can the democrats get to 7 and get a tie

Greenfield: Well Rhode Island looks harder now with 95% in and now Senator Chafee jumping to a 1 point lead and really I think we can get it called by the top of the next hour if not much changes. As for Washington, its much to early given how much mail-in votes will have to be counted so it may not be till well into the morning that we can call that race but some of the early data would give a slight advantage to Congressman Inslee though we will have to wait and see. Though two party leaders being knocked off in two consecutive elections would be something given before 2004 it hadn't happened since 1952.


1:51:

Blitzer: We now have a projection we can make in the gubernatorial race in Iowa - and that is the Democrat Chet Culver will be the next governor of the state defeating Republican Jim Nussle.

Carville: This win guarantees that we will have pick up gubernatorial seats as even if we lose Alaska and fail to win Minnesota at this point , we will have gained 4 compared to losing 3 meaning we gain at least 1 seat. Now I dont think we will lose Alaska though we probably wont win Minnesota so it would mean we would net 2 seats tonight

[OSR stands with Israel]

CNN: Election Night in America 2006(Rest of Results):



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-YxvEl9prU

2:06:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rchmoqssrQw&t=0s

Blitzer: CNN Is now able to project that in Rhode Island- Senator Lincoln Chaffee has indeed been reelected

Republicans: 51(-5)
Democrats: 47(+4)
Independents: 1(+1)

Blitzer: In Washington so far its a back and forth race between Senate Majority Leader Slade Gorton and Representative Jay Inslee


2:37:

Blitzer: We can make a projection in Minnesota- and that is that Governor Tim Pawlenty will be narrowly re-elected

Schnider: While it was a closer race than Governor Pawlenty probably would have liked, he still has managed to win reelection. With that Alaska is the only state out and right now seems like Governor Fran Ulmer is the heavy favorite given she is up 6 points over her Republican opponent Sarah Palin at this point.


3:53:

Blitzer: We have a major projection to make and that is in Washington - Representative Jay Inslee will defeat Senate Majority Leader Slade Gorton and will be the next Senator of Washington. As you can see with 99% of the vote in , Senator Gorton is trailing Representative Inslee by more than half a percentage point so we can declare Mr.Inslee a winner. This makes 2006 the 2nd consecutive election where a party leader failed to win reelection after they had all been reelected for the 26 prior senate elections.

Republicans: 51(-6)
Democrats: 48(+5)
Independents: 1(+1)


Begala: We may not have gotten the house or senate but cause of these results we will have forced the Republicans to pick both a New Speaker and a New Senate Majority Leader so we have succeeded in forcing some change to happen.

4:10:

Blitzer: We can now project that in Alaska- Governor Fran Ulmer will be reelected defeating Republican Sarah Palin to do so. 

Blitzer: About the House, we now can make a final projection in the House and here it is

Republicans: 226(-21)
Democrats: 209(+21)


Blitzer: Alright that does it for our coverage of the 2006 Midterm elections and thank you for Watching CNN for it . We will now send it back to our regularly scheduled programming

[LAB-LIB]

So Democrats didn't win the Senate because they lost Rhode Island and Maryland.

[OSR stands with Israel]

So Democrats didn't win the Senate because they lost Rhode Island and Maryland.

Basically, though keep in mind IRL Chafee lost by less than 30k votes and Maryland was a 3 way race here too. I originally was considering doing MD going D and TN going R but I think the other way is more interesting and isn't unrealistic either especially in a world where the state's partisan loyalties are much less hardened.

[Continential]

I suppose that this election is a pyrrhic victory for the Senate Democrats. It is also interesting to see all of New England/New York (with the exception of Maine) as Republican.

[LAB-LIB]

So Democrats didn't win the Senate because they lost Rhode Island and Maryland.

Basically, though keep in mind IRL Chafee lost by less than 30k votes and Maryland was a 3 way race here too. I originally was considering doing MD going D and TN going R but I think the other way is more interesting and isn't unrealistic either especially in a world where the state's partisan loyalties are much less hardened.

I know it's realistic, but that doesn't make it unremarkable. IRL Chafee only lost by 7 and Steele by 10 without a third candidate. With McCain instead of Bush in the White House, there's less polarization and McCain is also more popular, so it's easy to see those two races going the way they went. To be perfectly honest, the result I'd most likely overturn if I had to make it more realistic would be WA-SEN but even then it's easy to see Inslee beating Gorton given the fact that he's Republican leader.

[2016]

Get ready for the Hillary Clinton for President Announcement in the not to distant Future!

[OSR stands with Israel]

2006 Prediction Contest


House : Andriy wins this round

Senate: It’s a tie as Andriy was wrong in 3 of the 12 races(WA, TN, RI) while 2016 was also wrong in 3 of the 12 races(VT, RI, TN). The tie breaker is 2016 got more of the 4 tossup seats correct so I’ll give him this round

Gubernatorial: Andriy was closer in this one as well



So Andriy wins this contest and thanks 2016 for posting your prediction as well

[OSR stands with Israel]

2006 Election Results:


House of Representatives:

Republicans: 226(-21) 48.5%
Democrats: 209(+21) 48.7%


Senate Results:

Republicans: 51(-6)
Democrats: 48(+5)
Independents: 1(+1)

Results of Battleground Senate Seats:

Washington: Inslee 49.8% Gorton 49.2%
Rhode Island: Chafee 50.5% Whitehouse 49.5%
Tennessee: Ford Jr 50.5% Corker 48.6%
Maryland: Steele 38.1% Cardin 34.7% Schmoke 27%
New Jersey: Pallone 52% Franks 47.1%
Missouri: Talent 52.5% Carnahan 46.7%
Virginia: Allen 52.8% Miller 46.2%
Michigan: Blanchard 52.8% Abraham 45.7%
Minnesota: Amy Klobuchar 53.1% Kennedy 43.7%
Ohio: Brown 55.1% DeWine 44.8%
Pennsylvania: Casey Jr 57.5% Santorum 42.4%
Vermont: Sanders 62.6% Tarrant 36.7%

Gubernatorial Results:

Net Change: Democrats Pick Up 2 Seats



How Good of an election was it For Democrats:


Blitzer: Jeff many Democrats despite not winning either chamber of congress believe this was a good night why is that so

Greenfield: The reason for that is for the first arguably since 1994 they come out of an election you can say with a clear roadmap of how they will take either chamber of congress. While there were thoughts Democrats may take back the house in 1996 after losing it, it was pretty obvious that Democrats first were trying to stop the Republican momentum created in 1994 which they did and in 1998 it was to buck history and not lose seats which they accomplished. Now its the Democrats who have the momentum and if you look at the seats which were say decided by 7/8 points or less and say you give all of them to one party or the other you get Republicans getting up to 232 seats but on the flip side if you gave them all to the Democrats they would get all the way up to 225 . That isnt far off the Republican number and also means they have 7 seats to spare and due to this I think the House will be completely up for grabs in 2008.

As for the Senate well the Democrats now will only need to pick up 2 senate seats in 2008 to take the majority which is something that is always possible. Due to this I think you could say Democrats had a good night as they positioned themselves not only to make gains in 2008 but to potentially take both chambers of congress which two years ago nobody would have thought was possible.


Blitzer: How big is the fact the Democrats won the House Popular Vote gonna be for them

Greenfield: I think it provides a moral victory and puts many Republicans who were in competitive seats this time more of a thought before just going along with leadership as Democrats can say that the popular vote shows Republican Leadership does not have the mandate it needs to govern in just the way they want.


What do the results in the Midwest particularly in Ohio portend for the Republicans:

Blitzer: The results in the Midwest and Rust belt were not good at all for republicans. Was this due to not as good Candidate quality compared to democrats there or bad trends for them in the region entering 2008

Schnider: I’d say the democrats definitely ran stronger candidates than the republicans did in these states but it’s too early to say what it means for 2008. The most worrying state for the republicans though has to be Ohio where both The gubernatorial candidate and their senatorial one both lost by huge margins. Now the reason for that is cause Governor Taft has been extremely unpopular and that has been a drag on the Ohio GOP for the past 2 years so now the question is how much will he remain a drag 2 years from now. If he remains a drag the Republicans are in serious trouble cause no Republican has ever been elected without Ohio and while it is possible for that to change there aren't many scenarios where they can lose Ohio but win the Presidency


What can we expect over the next 2 years on legislation:

Blitzer: What can we expect over the next 2 years on legislation

Schnider: Well I think one clear change is that we can expect is that legislation that will pass will less from the right like they have been in the last two years and more from the center to center-right like they were in the President's first term. So for example we likely will not see policies such as entitlement reform, school vouchers pass.

Blitzer: With many economists expecting a recession sometime the next year how will that effect the  President's agenda. Could that lead to potential gridlock in dealing with the issue if Republicans are unable to get 9 democrats on board

Schnider: Well first we dont know if there will be a recession and second many policies that can be implemented to deal with a recession such as tax cuts, or spending increases don't need 60 votes and can be passed with only 50 votes using the reconciliation process. So I don't think we need to be worried about gridlock to deal with that but I can tell you that given Republicans still have a trifecta if they dont deal with it effectively it can result in a pretty bad 2008 for them.

[OSR stands with Israel]

President McCain Reacts to the 2006 Midterm Results:

McCain: Last night tens of millions of Americans went out to cast their ballots to decide who would represent them in all sorts of offices at both a federal and state level and I want to thank them for doing their part in our democracy. I want to congratulate everyone who was elected last night and let them know that I look forward to working with them for my last two years as President. I also want to take this time to invite all the newly elected members of the House, Senate and newly elected Governors to the White House so we can discuss in detail how we would like to work with each other. Lastly many of you have been wondering how my cabinet would be shaken up over the last two years, and I just want to announce that Treasury Secretary Robert Lucas, Commerce Secretary George Pataki, and Ambassador Susan Golding have let me know they will be stepping down from their positions at the end of this year . I want to thank them for their service to this nation and wish them well for whatever they may want to pursue in the future. Now I will take a few questions

Reporter 1: Given the fact last night's losses were the 2nd biggest losses any party has taken in the house in the past 20 years, and third largest losses any party has taken in the senate during that same period do you think last night was a rejection of the course you have taken during the last two years.

McCain: No I dont think this is a rejection given one that our party still did manage to keep control of both houses of congress and if you look at history this type of loss was normal during what people call 6 year itch. Presidents Roosevelt, Eisenhower, Johnson all lost more than 45 house seats during their 6th year midterm and Republicans in 1974 after being in for 6 years lost 49. For President Reagan keep in mind he had his big house losses in 1982, and in 1986 Republicans lost 8 seats in the senate, and for President Clinton the Democrats pretty much if you remember lost everything in 1994 so I dont think this is a rejection and in fact is in line with what has happened throughout history.


Reporter 2: Have you decided what your legislative priorities will be over the next 2 years, and two do you plan to get immigration done in the lame duck period

McCain: We do plan to get immigration done over the next couple months as we just need to iron out a deal in the conference committee and once we do we can get it passed into law. We arent keen on having to start this process all over again so yes we do plan to get immigration done in the next two months.

As for legislative priorities, well it is something that I will discuss with leaders of both parties over the coming weeks to come up with a plan


Reporter 3: Is the turn over at Treasury and Commerce have to do anything with a potential recession facing our nation next year

McCain: No, the reason they are stepping down is they decided they want to step down after serving for 6 years. I can tell you that I have full confidence in the abilities of Secretary Lucas and Secretary Pataki to deal with a possible recession, so I had nothing to do in them stepping down.

[2016]

McCain has only 4-5 months to get something done at most before the 2008 Presidential Campaign starts!

[Continential]

You accidently labeled the 2006 results as the 2002 results.

[OSR stands with Israel]

You accidently labeled the 2006 results as the 2002 results.

Fixed

[OSR stands with Israel]

President McCain names replacements for outgoing Cabinet members

Secretary of Treasury: Member of Federal Reserve Board of Governors Ben Bernanke



Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Bernanke


Secretary of Commerce: New Jersey Senator Bob Franks



Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Franks


UN Ambassdor: Scholar  Robert Kagan



Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Kagan

[2016]

Bernake is bad, the guy who drove the States in the ditch in the OTL!

God help us!

Can Democrats filibuster him?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Bernake is bad, the guy who drove the States in the ditch in the OTL!

God help us!

Can Democrats filibuster him?

He was confirmed by voice vote to a more influential  position in OTL: https://www.congress.gov/nomination/109th-congress/1026?s=1&r=43

so I doubt the Democrats would filibuster his appointment

[OSR stands with Israel]

Conference Committee Passes comes to Agreement about Immigration Reform:


What it does to prevent new illegal immigration:

- Would allocate funding to construct 1000 miles of Fencing on parts of the southern border

- Would allocate funding to increase border patrol agents at the border as well

- Would significantly increase penalties on employers who hire illegal immigrants, with repeat offenders facing higher penalties including jail time

How it would deal with illegal immigrants already in this nation:

- Would protect illegal immigrants who have been here for 5 years or more and haven't committed crimes in that period will be protected from deportation for 5 years

- Would grant Z visas to illegal immigrants who have been here for 5 years or more which would let them stay in the US and apply for permanent residency status but would be put in the back of the line

- Z Visas would not be given out until at least 2/3 of the Fence is Built and the Verification system is put in place

- If At least 2/3 of the Fence isn't Built and the Verification system isn't put in place by the end of 7 years then the Z Visa provision will be removed from this bill. Deportation protections will also be extended to 7 years once 50% of the Fence is Built, otherwise, it expires at the end of 5 years.

Legal immigration Reforms :

- Creates blue card program which will allow for more agriculture workers to immigrate to the US

- Requires companies who apply for the program to prove they are unable to fill jobs with American citizens and residents first

- Let’s Kids of Immigrants who have been here for more than 10 years to stay in the nation after they turn 21 even if their parents haven’t gotten green cards yet



President McCain signs immigration bill after both house and senate approve agreement:


McCain: I want to start out by thanking members of both parties whose hard work helped make this day possible including my former opponent and friend, Senator Joe Biden. So I want everyone to give the people behind me a round of applause for their hard work in getting this immigration reform bill passed(Applause). For the past 13 to 14 years the issue of our broken immigration has polarized our electorate, has put a strain on our border states which got people to point figures at people who aren't to blame for the problem such as the hard-working immigrants who just want to provide a better life for their families(Applause). The real problem though was Washington where politicians from both parties refused to do anything about it cause they were afraid of a potential backlash. After a decade of doing nothing, the problem became too large to avoid and thankfully these politicians understood that and finally passed a bill that reforms our broken immigration system. Now the only thing left is for me to sign this bill, so let me do that right now

(McCain signs Bill)

[OSR stands with Israel]

John Boehner defeats Roy Blunt to become the leader of Republican House Caucus and Speaker-Elect of the United States



Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections

Blitzer: We have some breaking news to report to you and that is John Boehner has been elected as the new Republican leader of the House which means he will be the next Speaker of the House come January 3rd of the new year. After the vote, Congressman Roy Blunt easily defeated Congressman Mike Pence for the number 2 Republican Spot in Leadership meaning he will be the next House Majority Leader. The Senate Republicans also voted unanimously to make make Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell their new leader meaning he will be the next Senate Majority Leader come January 3rd as well.

Balloting:
John Boehner: 127
Roy Blunt: 99


President McCain meets with incoming leadership of both parties before Christmas Recess:


McCain: I had a good time meeting with Speaker-Elect John Bohner, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader-Elect Mitch McConnell and Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid to discuss ways we 5 can work together over the next 2 years to help make our nation a better place. We discussed many issues such as Healthcare, the Budget, Education and we hope we can get some work done on those issues and more over the next 2 years.

Pelosi: I think I can speak for the rest of us when I want to thank the President for inviting us here for and look forward to working with him the next two years

McCain: Alright before we end this I just want to make it clear that while we may find common ground on many issues, one thing we want is which one of our states is the best to vacation for Christmas in as it is clearly Arizona(Laughter).

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Will McCain take the smaller Republican majority to push for health care reform? It sounds like something he would do as a maverick. Not to mention he could take wind out of Democratic sails in 2008.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Breaking News: Former President Gerald Ford Passes Away



Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerald_Ford


King: We have some sad news to report and that is Gerald Ford, the 38th president of the United States, who helped heal the nation after Watergate has passed away. President Ford spent his entire life serving the public from serving in the Navy during World War Two, then serving the people of Grand Rapids in congress for over 24 years to then serving our nation as Vice President and President in the mid 1970s. We at CNN want to provide our condolences to his wife Betty and his kids for their loss in what a difficult time this must be for them. In honor of President Ford , Larry King Live tonight will replay an interview we did with him a few years ago and our network tomorrow will air a documentary about him.



President McCain's Eulogy at President's Ford funeral:


McCain:  Mrs. Ford and all the members of the Ford  family , I want to begin by letting you know that the thoughts of all of us is with you tonight in what must be a hard time for you. Betty, you husband truly led a life of service from his service in the Pacific during World War Two, to serving honorably for 27 years in Congress to brining our nation together during a difficult time as President and we all thank him for his service. As a member of the house he worked with both parties to ensure important legislation on civil rights, on the environment and the economy and while he may not have achieved his lifelong goal of being Speaker, we are all thankful he was able to serve our nation as President. As someone who was a commanding officer of a training squadron while he was President, I can tell you that we are all proud to have Gerald Ford be our commander in chief.

Thank You, May God Bless President Ford and his family, and may god Bless America

[Real Texan Politics]

McCain:  Mrs. Reagan and all the members of the Reagan family , I want to begin by letting you know that the thoughts of all of us is with you tonight in what must be a hard time for you.

Uhhhh....

[OSR stands with Israel]

McCain:  Mrs. Reagan and all the members of the Reagan family , I want to begin by letting you know that the thoughts of all of us is with you tonight in what must be a hard time for you.

Uhhhh....

Oops did not edit that

[BigVic]

Good update. Liking this McCain TL in the 2000s

[Chips]

I'll predict the Democrat will win narrowly in 2008. I'll need to see the candidates running before I can guess enough to make a map.