The Presidency of America's Maverick

[OSR stands with Israel]

President McCain officially files for reelection and campaign releases statement

Woodruff: President McCain officially filed papers with the FEC which will allow him to officially launch his reelection campaign and then his campaign released his statement.

McCain: When I sought this office 4 years I promised to you that I would take on corrupt special interests and put the interests of ordinary voters first and since the moment I took office I have done my utmost to keep that promise and am proud of the efforts we have taken so far to reduce the power of corruption. Over the past few years, we have also come to learn the consequences of what terrorism can do and the only way we can stop attacks like what happened on September 11th 2001 from ever happening again is by destroying these terrorist groups and stopping governments around the world from abetting them as well. Over the past year and a half we have made huge progress towards reching that goal but we still have work to do and that is why I have decided to run for reelection so we can continue our progress we have made on the global war on terror , and at home against the fight against terrorism. Thank You May God Bless You and May God Bless America




Early primary polls show Graham and Gephart as the frontrunners

President McCain approvals:

Approve: 66%
Disapprove: 32%

2004 Democratic Primary Poll(National):
Florida Senator Bob Graham 26%
Representative Dick Gephart 21%
Deleware Senator Joe Biden 15%
Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold 12%
Lousiana Senator Mary Landrieu 10%
Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean 7%
Alabama Governor Don Siegelman 5%
Georgia Senator Zell Miller 2%
Reverend Al Sharpton 1%
Congressman Dennis Kucinich 1%

[Snazzrazz Mazzlejazz]

Russ!

[UWS]

McCain, four more years!

[😥]

McCain, four more years!

[Left Wing]

I mean, of these candidates, Feingold is the best choice to me but I wouldn't really want him to be the nominee as he'd likely get clobbered by McCain and I think he wouldn't be able to run for re-election to the senate at the same time.

[OSR stands with Israel]

House Passes Prescription Drug Reform Bill :

Shaw: After much debate, the House has passed a prescription drug reform bill will add a prescription drug plan into medicare or seniors, and make other reforms to regulate price gouging by pharmaceutical companies. Now the bill still needs to get approved in the Senate where it could face more opposition and then both the house and senate need to agree on one reconciled bill which could cause problems to so this is really just the first step in passing the bill but of course an important step.

Schnider: Yes and the senate usually would see many things that could be removed from the bill and other things added in as things are usually harder to just pass in its original form in the senate due to the filibuster.

[OSR stands with Israel]

President McCain proposes a cap and trade system to tackle global warming:



McCain: After many years of debate about the cause of global warming, it is now more than clear that humans beings have contributed significantly to it and due to that it is also our responsibility to tackle that problem. This is why 2 years ago I created a commission to research potential solutions to this issue in the most economic friendly way possible and over the past few weeks they have met with me along with the head of the EPA, Secretary of Interior, Commerce, and Energy to come up with a comprehensive plan and this is the plan we have decided.

- First, we will be capping CO2 emissions to be no more at the end of this decade as they were in the beginning of this decade. Now since we know that not every area in the nation wont be able to implement some of these caps, we will be granting partial exemptions to those areas.

- Second we will be introducing a cap and trade system to incentivize companies to lower emissions and be able to do so in a market-friendly way as well

- Third we will propose increasing funding for research and development of nuclear, wind and solar energy sources across the nation.


Doing this not only will help us tackle global warming but I believe help our economy grow as well which is why I believe Congress should pass this proposal.


Reporter(Shouting): What do you say to people who call this unrepublican and unconservative

McCain: Well that they should study history cause it was a Republican President, Teddy Roosevelt who remember created our national parks system and did a lot for our environment and then Richard Nixon who created the EPA and signed legislation such as the clean water act. As for unconservative remember it was  Ronald Reagan and Margarat Thathcer who took action to deal with the problem of the shrinking ozone layer. So the people who say that are wrong

[President Johnson]

Very well written, as usual. While I'd support Bob Graham in the Democratic primary, I'd be fine with a McCain reelection at the end of the day. Out of these Democrats here, I could see Zell Miller being the weakest candidate because he doesn't appeal to liberals, who wouldn't turn out. He'd win over some social conservatives from McCain, but not nearly enough to make up the losses. For 2008, I'd support Joe Biden or Al Gore (again).

I think McCain would have been relatively progressive for a Republican of his time on the climate issue and I'd support most parts of his proposals as a first step. Whether it would find much Republican support elsewhere is another question.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Breaking News: US Forces capture al-Zarqawi



Shaw: We have some breaking news to report and that is US Forces have just captured al-Zarqawi the person who was leading the Iraqi insurgency and one of the most notorious terrorists in the world. The capture of Zarqawi marks a huge win for the United States against Al-Qaeda and other insurgent groups who have been trying to get a foothold in Iraq but so far US forces have managed to stop them from doing so and the capture of Zarqawi could be a fatal blow to the insurgency. Now lets go over to the white house where Attorney General Lindsey Graham will make a statement

Graham: As you know a short while ago our forces captured one of the most notorious terrorists in the world, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and currently at the direction of Secretary Ridge and I the Pentagon is working with the Justice Department to ensure that he is brought to justice for the crimes he has committed. When he is brought to the US , the justice department will be charging al-Zarqaui under the Mandatory Sentencing for Terrorism Act of 2001 and we will bring him to justice for the crimes he has committed.

Media Member 1: What about problems with jurisdiction

Graham: Zarqawi has committed acts of terror against the United States so we believe that we do have the jurisdiction to charge him under this act and get a conviction as well.


Media Member 2: Where will he be held while he is in Pre-Trial Custody

Graham: To deal with this issue we have constructed a holding facility specifically for someone charged under this act.

Media Member 2: What about if he is convicted

Graham: The Justice Department believes facilities like Terre Haute are adequate enough to hold an inmate convicted under the Mandatory Sentencing for Terrorism Act of 2001. That will be all for now

[UWS]

I guess the Second Liberian Civil War that also saw regime change occured about the same way in this scenario as IOTL.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Senate Passes Prescription Drug Reform Bill with some changes from the House Bill:


Shaw: The Senate today has also passed a Prescription Drug Reform Bill which will:

- Has a deductible based on income meaning wealthier seniors will have a higher deductible as well

-  Provides a subsidy for large employers to discourage them from eliminating private prescription coverage to retired workers

- Allows medicare advantage to offer part D plans

- Wealthier Seniors will also be required to pay higher copays, higher premiums

- Prevents the government from establishing a formulary



Shaw: Now with us is our congressional correspondent who will explain us the major differences between the house and senate bills

Congressional Correspondent: There are in fact huge differences, one being that the Senate bill is much more means-tested meaning than the house bill in an attempt to control the costs of the bill. Also remember the proposed medicare part D plan which passed the house would cover at least 80% of every transaction above 15 dollars you have with a pharmacy, so for example if you prescription drug bill at the pharmacy came out to be 55 dollars, the government would cover 80% of the 40 dollars in costs above 15 dollars.  On the other hand in this senate bill , instead of medicare covering parts of every transaction you have would instead set a yearly deductible but would cover a higher portion of prescription drug costs once you go over the deductible.


Shaw: There are some other changes too

Correspondent: Yes and that is the private section will have more power in the senate version of the bill than the House bill as the government is banned from having the power of creating a formulary.


Shaw: How long do you think it will take for both houses to reconcile these differences and pass a bill for the President to sign into law

Correspondent: With the differences between the two bills id say anywhere between two to three months for sure and maybe even longer than that. The differences are to larger in my opinion for the house to just adopt the senate version of the bill a couple weeks from now and pass it into law and some serious negotiations will have to be done for this bill to pass and that will take months

[OSR stands with Israel]

Alveda King, The Niece of Martin Luther King Jr, announces she will run for the open Georgia Senate as a Republican seat after Johnny Iskason declines to run. President McCain announces he will endorse her bid to become the next senator from Georgia



Woodruff: Alveda King , The Niece of Martin Luther King Jr, has announced that she will be running for the United State Senate in Georgia to replace the retiring senator and current Presidential candidate Zell Miller. After Johnny Iskason declined the run for the senate a move which many people believe portend a run for the Gubernatorial office in 2006 . President John McCain released a statement today saying he will back her run for the senate and if both of them win their respective elections in 2004 he will look forward to working with Mrs. King to help make our nation a better place.

[President Johnson]

I wonder whether the Republican Party would still have turned sharply to the right once McCain left the White House after two terms? I'm afraid yes, but who knows for sure?

[OSR stands with Israel]

I wonder whether the Republican Party would still have turned sharply to the right once McCain left the White House after two terms? I'm afraid yes, but who knows for sure?

Well one of the reason the GOP moved sharply right in OTL after 2008 was cause of the huge vacuum in the party created by 2 consecutive major defeats in 2006 and 2008 and that vacuum is what allowed the tea party to rise to the power it did in 2010. Plus the events that occured in the Bush 2nd term created lots of anger in the electorate which what also helped the tea party rise.

So the future of the GOP after whenever McCain leaves office depends a lot upon what  shape the nation is along with the shape the party is as well cause in Jan of 2009 , both the nation and the party were in terrible shape.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Very Early 2004 Election Preview:

Shaw: With exactly a year until the 2004 election , lets go over to Jeff Greenfield to find out how the race is shaping.

Greenfield : Well first thing to remember is that the reapportionment of electoral votes since 2000 goes to the benefit of the Republicans as if the 2000 map stays the same they would have 294 electoral votes instead of 292 they had last time. So what we are going to do to that map is take every state that was decided by less than 10 points and mark them as competitive but we will also take California and Vermont from that group and mark it as Democratic as even though it was decided by less than 10 points, barring a landslide it will remain in the Democratic column and the same we could say about Virginia and given where the Vice President is from Missouri as well but for the Republicans. So once we do that we get this map

McCain 180
Democratic Candidate 150


Now here is the problem for the Democrats  have to solve because if you give the President all the competitive southern states of Florida, Georgia, Tennessee , Louisiana and Arkansas , President McCain starts out the elections with 248 electoral votes in his bag , just 22 away and if you add in the two westerns states of Nevada and New Mexico which look to be leaning in the President's way then he is only 12 away. This is the argument that Senator Graham, Landrieu Miller and Governor Siegelman are making to the party is if you dont nominate a candidate who can appeal to the South the Democrats will be forced to run the table with no room for error anywhere else which is a strategy that usually tends to fail.

Now the northern Democrats such as Senator Biden, Feingold and Governor Dean are making is that if you nominate a southern democrat , then Northern states such as Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maine, Oregon and Washington will be won by President McCain which will give 238 EV in the bag and Nevada and New Mexico would mean hed only be 22 EV away in that scenario as well which requires almost running the table as well.

Given both these scenarios , Representative Gephardt is saying to the voters if you nominate me you wont need to surrender that many northern or southern states  meaning we would start with a better position.

Shaw: So with Representative Gephardt what states can you add to the list for the President

Greenfield: Well we believe without a southern democrat in most scenarios Georgia, Tennessee and Louisiana will go Republican and along with Nevada and New Mexico which would give President McCain 225 Electoral votes .

Shaw: So in this scenario Mr.Gephardt would be the best suited to take on President McCain

Greenfield: The other candidates would say not so fast though cause while not being from either region could result in a more larger battleground it could also make winning states harder to so for example New Jersey ,Maine,  Minnesota,and  Oregon  could be states he could have a hard time appealing in and if you add those states to the President's column he goes from 225 all the way to 261 which puts him just 9 away . While you could argue he could put Missouri in play it just puts him back at 250.

Shaw: So this election will be hard no matter what


Greenfield: Well this is exactly why incumbents are generally so hard to beat cause the bully pulpit of the presidency allows them to further reinforce support in states they already won plus play offensive ins tates that you didnt for 4 years and the party out of power has to make that up all up in a year which isnt easy to do.

[OSR stands with Israel]

For the purposes of this TL im gonna have Louisiana's runoff take place on the same day as the other elections so i can do coverage of all 3 gubernatorial elections in one post 

[Asenath Waite]

If the nominee is someone like Graham and McCain still has high approval ratings going into 04 I could see another Nader candidacy and an election sort of similar to 1924.

[UWS]

When it comes to that early 2004 election preview above, there could be modifications of the ratings for the states, including perhaps New York. As we all know the 2004 Republican National Convention was held in New York City and IOTL, two weeks after the RNC, Kerry's lead in New York was reduced to just 6 percentage points due to Bush's convention bounce nationwide.

https://poll.qu.edu/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=399

And Osama Bin Laden, the perpetrator of the 9/11 attacks, has been killed and President McCain's maverick stance has strong appeal among more conservative Democrats and independent voters.

But of course it will depend on who's the Democratic nominee.

[Asenath Waite]

When it comes to that early 2004 election preview above, there could be modifications of the ratings for the states, including perhaps New York. As we all know the 2004 Republican National Convention was held in New York City and IOTL, two weeks after the RNC, Kerry's lead in New York was reduced to just 6 percentage points due to Bush's convention bounce nationwide.

https://poll.qu.edu/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=399

And Osama Bin Laden, the perpetrator of the 9/11 attacks, has been killed and President McCain's maverick stance has strong appeal among more conservative Democrats and independent voters.

But of course it will depend on who's the Democratic nominee.

Yeah, the entire New York metro area swung Republican post 9/11. Bush got 47% in Fairfield County and came within five points in New Jersey which I think definitely goes for McCain ITTL. In some ways McCain is the ideal Republican for the New York area, culturally moderate and has appeal both to the wealthy suburbanites and to WWC Reagan/Trump type Democrats. I see him outperforming Bush in the suburbs and getting the sort of numbers Trump did on Staten Island.

[OSR stands with Israel]

When it comes to that early 2004 election preview above, there could be modifications of the ratings for the states, including perhaps New York. As we all know the 2004 Republican National Convention was held in New York City and IOTL, two weeks after the RNC, Kerry's lead in New York was reduced to just 6 percentage points due to Bush's convention bounce nationwide.

https://poll.qu.edu/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=399

And Osama Bin Laden, the perpetrator of the 9/11 attacks, has been killed and President McCain's maverick stance has strong appeal among more conservative Democrats and independent voters.

But of course it will depend on who's the Democratic nominee.

Keep in mind this isnt a battleground map as much, but rather basically mapping out a path based on the electiblity arguments the different democratic candidates are making , and no matter who the Democratic party nominee is they will need New York to vote for them by probably double digits if they want to make any path to the WH realistic.

[UWS]

And what does the Democratic polling look like now?

[OSR stands with Israel]

And what does the Democratic polling look like now?

I will do an update on that after I cover the 2003 gubernatorial elections

[OSR stands with Israel]

CNN: Election Night in America 2003(Part 1):



Source: https://i.ytimg.com/vi/haRo8uLQNok/hqdefault.jpg

7:00:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rchmoqssrQw&t=0s

Schneider: Welcome too CNN's Coverage of the 2003 gubernatorial elections in Kentucky , Mississippi and Louisiana. The polls have just closed in Kentucky and in fact in much of Kentucky the polls closed an hour ago and as off now we are unable to make a projection in this race

Schneider: In the polls leading up to this race Republican Ernie Fletcher has lead by a couple points but for him to be the first republican governor elected in this state in over 3 decades he will need to do perform really well in the northern and central parts of the state.

Shaw: Yes so far though he seems to do be doing that as the central part of the state is coloring in republican colors so far but the eastern part of the state like expected is going solidly democratic. A key for the Dem is winning Jefferson county by probably double digits and then winning Fayette to cause if they do that that along with strong performances in the east. At this point though it doesnt seem like they are able to that which is why Mr. Fletcher seems to hold a 7 point lead at the moment.


7:40:

Woodruff: Now with nearly 3/4 of the vote in Mr.Fletcher seems to be up by around 6 to 7 points so Bill do you think its all over

Schnider: At this point I would say most probably yes given the fact it seems like Mr.Fletcher is doing really well in Northern Kentucky even getting 70% in some of the counties like Boone county and doing really well in Central kentucky as well as Western Kentucky so at this point id say its all over

Shaw: You are right as we can project in Kentucky that the Republican Ernie Fletcher will become the first governor of the state in 30 years

8:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rchmoqssrQw&t=0s

Shaw: The polls have closed in Mississippi and at this moment we are unable to make a projection there.  So Jeff what are the keys there for both parties

Greenfield: Well for Governor Musgrove it is winning over 90% of the African American vote and getting good turnout from them as well and from exit polls seems like we are getting relatively decent turnout but thats too early to say. Then he'd need to do well ins ome of the rural counties and if he does that he can get over 50% but if not he wont . Id say some key points are how good can the Democrats do in the South Western parts of the state and some key counties here in the middle like Montgomery County. The Republican path is basically to stop any of these from happening cause if they do they will win

8:30:

Schinder: So Far Mr. Barbour hold a large lead over Governor Musgrove but to be cautious the Democratic counties havent come in but one cause of concern from the Governor Musgrove camp is they are currently narrowly losing Montgomery county a key county in this race

Greenfield: Yes the fact is while yes it is a small county that wont net votes, it probably is a good bellwether for the state as a whole for this election but we have a long way to go and it will probably be another hour before we can find out what is going on.


9:00:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rchmoqssrQw&t=0s

Woodruff: The polls have closed in Lousiana and currently we are unable to make a projection in that race. So Bill what are some keys for Mr.Jindal and Mrs. Blanco

Schinder: Well this race is shaping up to be a very pre 1994 map in the south with the democrats relying on a coalition of cities and rural areas to win and Republicans relying on running up the numbers in the suburbs and exurbs. So the key in my opinion is if either the trend of rural areas going more and more republican in the south can cause Mr.Jindal to do better there than expected or do better in the city thanks to the endorsement of the mayor there either of which would definitely cause him to win given how Republicans the suburbs and exurbs are.


So some key counties we will be watching to see is if Mr.Jindal can get to a third of the vote in Orleans Parish, win Western Baton Rogue or get some rural counties out west.


9:30:

Shaw: So far in Lousiana Mrs. Blanco holds a pretty large lead but thats cause more of her counties have come in at the moment while in Mississippi Mr.Barbour lead has dropped to around 5 points as the Dem areas have been coming in but there is still many Republican areas out there.

Greenfield: Mr.Barbour is doing really well in these key bellwether countries like Montgomery and in the South West that at this point id definitely say he is the favorite .

Schinder: In Lousiana I think there are signs that Mrs. Blanco is the favorite which is that she is winning LaSalle parish a parish which by the way hasnt voted Democratic at the presidential level since 1952 and was even a  county that even Jimmy Carter lost in 1976. So at this point id say Mr.Jindal is underperforming greatly in rural areas meaning he will need a higher higher share in either the suburbs or make signicant inroads which we will see if it happens.


10:30:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rchmoqssrQw&t=0s

Greenfield: With the Democratic areas in Mississippi just about in and Mr.Barbour holding a 4 point lead there I think the race is just about over

Shaw: You are correct about that as now we can project that the Republican Haley Barbour will be the next governor of Mississippi and only the 2nd Republican Governor there since reconstruction. So Bill how is Louisiana going  

Schneider: Well Mrs. Blanco lead has dropped while the suburbs come in but if you look at two key counties, one beign Orleans parish a place where Mr.Jindal needs to get at least 35% he is only getting 34% and in West baton Rogue where he needs to win he is currently losing by a point so if these numbers hold in the next hour I think the race is over and Mrs. Blanco will win.


11:42:


Schinder: At this point again with Orleans Parish in , Mr.Jindal has failed to get to 35% and also failed to win West Baton rouge and with him underperforming so greatly in rural Louisiana  I think this race is over

Woodruff: You are correct as CNN can now project that Kathleen Blanco will be the next governor of Louisiana and will be the first female governor of the state. This also means that every race resulted in a flip tonight

 

[President Johnson]

Nice updates. I'm looking forward to the 2004 Democratic primary. But no doubt McCain wins reelection.

[UWS]

Nice updates. I'm looking forward to the 2004 Democratic primary. But no doubt McCain wins reelection.

Likely by a bigger margin than Bush did IOTL.