The Presidency of America's Maverick
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  The Presidency of America's Maverick
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Question: Who Will win the 2008 Election
#1
George W Bush
 
#2
Hillary Clinton
 
#3
Will be a 269-269 Tie
 
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Total Voters: 15

Author Topic: The Presidency of America's Maverick  (Read 62275 times)
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Computer89
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« Reply #25 on: July 10, 2020, 02:42:28 PM »

Before Pennsylvania, there is also Illinois primary on March 21 that should likely favor McCain, especially in the Collar counties, including Chicago. After he won NY and CA, he surely proved his strength in states with big urban population, including Illinois with Chicago. In that state, I would see McCain being endorsed by Senator Peter Fitzgerald and Governor George Ryan.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/timeline.php?year=2000&f=0&off=0&elect=2

You are correct in that Illionis favors McCain and that he likely will get the endorsements of Senator Fitzgerald but he unlike Governor Ridge hasnt formally declared his endorsement yet but is expected to so soon.


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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #26 on: July 10, 2020, 05:58:43 PM »

Bush cuts into delegate lead with wins in Mid March primaries due to sweeping the delegates in Texas and Florida but still faces an uphill battle in Must-win State of Illionis


Woodruff: With Super Tuesday II now have concluded lets look back at the results of tonight and also at last Friday's primaries as well first with states won by Senator John McCain

Contests won By Senator McCain:

Colorado: McCain 58.3% 24 Delegates Bush 39.5% 16 Delegates
Utah: McCain 47.8% 19 Delegates Bush 42.5% 10 Delegates
Tennessee: McCain 53.3% 21 Delegates Bush 43.6% 16 Delegates


Woodruff: Now lets look at the contests won by Governor Bush and see how much of the delegate lead he has cut into


Contests won by Governor Bush:

Wyoming: Bush 57.3% 14 Delegates McCain 38.1% 8 Delegates
Florida: Bush 53.3% 80 Delegates McCain 45.1%
Texas: Bush 68.3% 124 Delegates McCain 28.8%
Mississippi: Bush 58.4% 20 Delegates McCain 38.8% 13 Delegates
Oklahoma: Bush 63.1% 27 Delegates McCain 30.2% 11 Delegates
Lousiana: Bush 51.1% 15 Delegates McCain 47.2% 14 Delegates


Woodruff: Now lets look at the map and the overall count



Arizona Senator John McCain 728 Delegates
Texas Governor George W Bush 585 Delegates
Others 17 Delegates

Shaw: So Governor Bush did manage to reduce his deficit to 143 delegates tonight but Senator McCain did perform surprisingly well in the South and the reason our exit polls tell that he did is many voters who decided in the past week believe at this moment this primary is already over and those voters went to McCain in overwhelming margins. The question though is does Governor Bush have a path

Greenfield: Well its hard to see one as remember Illinois allocated 60 out of its 64 delegates by district with the other 4 going to the state wide winner and right now its hard to see Governor Bush winning anything more than a bare majority with maybe 12 districts at most which would net him 40 of 64 delegates there which would only reduce his deficit to 117. Then he must win Pennsylvania which used a hybrid model which then at best would take him down to the 50s or 60s and then and then only will he have a path. But currently Governor Bush is down in both states , Illionis by more than 5, and Pennslyvania by double digitis

Woodruff: And with Senator Fitzgerald going to hold a rally with McCain in the Chicago Suburbs tomorrow that should be a boost for McCain.

Greenfield: Yes that only makes it harder for Governor Bush to win the primary and really if he loses Illionis the primary is over
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #27 on: July 11, 2020, 02:51:17 AM »

Bush Drops out after double-digit defeat in Illinois, making Senator John McCain the presumptive Republican Nominee



Woodruff: After being defeated in the Illinois Primary yesterday

Results of Illinois Primary:
Arizona Senator John McCain 54.7% 49 Delegates
Texas Governor Bush 42.5% 15 Delegates

Woodruff:  Governor George W Bush flew back to Texas yesterday to make a decision on whether or not he should stay in the race or not and after talking to top campaign staff he held a press conference at the Gubernatorial Mansion earlier today declaring he will be dropping out of the race and endorsing Senator John McCain for President. Due to that news, CNN Can now project that Senator John McCain will be the presumptive Republican Nominee


John McCain Wins Republican Nomination:



Shaw: Yup this will go down as arguably as one of the most stunning primary results given that nobody thought a year ago anybody but Texas Governor George W Bush would be the nominee. Now some may ask why did Governor Bush drop out today and that is we are told he also talked to many top GOP insiders who had backed him in the campaign but now too wanted him to drop out of the race. Anyway going back at history where does this rank in best run primary camapaigns

Schneider: It was arguably the greatest primary campaign in history as while Carter's win in 1976 and Clinton's win in 1992 were unexpected too there was no candidate in that race that had the same frontrunner status as George W Bush did or support from both the Establishment and Ideolgocial wings as well. Also While Reagan's near win in 1976 win was extremely impressive he did lose in the end to a candidate who while an incumbent was arguably in a worse position a year out then Governor Bush was. So this was an extremely well-run campaign by Senator McCain and if he is able to run a similarly well run campaign in the general, he will be hard to beat although we are still a long way out from the election and running a well run campaign in the primaries and in the general are two different things.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #28 on: July 11, 2020, 03:55:22 AM »

Curious to see who McCain selects as his running mate. I would hope for Richard Lugar or Colin Powell.
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« Reply #29 on: July 11, 2020, 03:57:56 AM »

Curious to see who McCain selects as his running mate. I would hope for Richard Lugar or Colin Powell.

Imo neither of them are conservative enough for McCain and that would lead to some pretty low turnout and a GOP L.
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« Reply #30 on: July 11, 2020, 10:46:34 AM »
« Edited: July 11, 2020, 10:55:18 AM by Roll Roons »

Curious to see who McCain selects as his running mate. I would hope for Richard Lugar or Colin Powell.

Obviously he won't pick Cheney. If he wants to boost his standing with religious conservatives, maybe Santorum, Ashcroft, Brownback, Sessions, Huckabee or Bush himself? If he wants to double down on the moderate maverick image, probably Powell, DeWine, Whitman, Pataki, Ridge, Snowe, or even Weld.
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« Reply #31 on: July 11, 2020, 06:35:19 PM »

John McCain releases a list of Top priorities for the adminstration


Campaign Finance Reform/Corruption:

- Ban on unregulated soft money to political parties

- requires all contributors to a PAC to be publically disclosed

- crackdown on issue advocacy ads especially

- increase "revolving door restrictions" to ban elected members of congress , their senior staff and other high ranking buercrats from being lobbyists for 5 years and having a lifetime ban on lobbying behalf of foreign governments for life

Healthcare:

- Cover prescription drugs under medicare

- provide tax breaks and subsidies to providers who move into counties with only 1 provider

- Do Tort Reform

- Give Individuals a $2000 refundable tax credit for purchasing health insurance

- Expand CHIP

- Expand Tax Free Medical Savings Accounts


Taxes:

- Expand the Standard Deduction and Child Tax Credit

- A permanent ban on Internet sales taxes

- Members of the armed forces deployed overseas would pay no income taxes

- Raise the threshold for paying the lowest tax rate to $70,000 per couple and drop the lowest tax rate from 15% to 10% and a cut of 5% for couples making between $70,000 and $400,000 and 2.5% for couples above $400,000

- Allow Taxpayers to invest up to 20 percent of their Social Security payroll taxes into private accounts

- Created Family Security Account

- Eliminate tax havens and other corporate loopholes

Environment:

- Have scientists work with economists to study cap and trade solutions and if it is deemed both effective at helping the environment without hurting the economy , to adopt the plan

- Do the same on other plans as well

- Protect Western Wilderness protections and natural parks

National Security

- Increase Funding of the military by 75 billion

- Disregard AMB treaty

- Have Military Political Leaders have Military Backgrounds

- Increase sanctions on Iraq and make WMD inspections more strict

Shaw : The McCain camp we are told agreed to add the lowering tax breaks as a plank in his tax plan as part of his conversation with people in the Bush camp in order to reach out to his supporters and his team
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #32 on: July 12, 2020, 02:26:51 AM »

Vice President Gore launches first barbs against Senator McCain, hitting the Presumptive Nominee   on many votes during 103rd congress and for voting against Kyoto



Greenfield: Vice President Gore today launched his first attacks against Senator John McCain in a rally in a rally in Philadelphia today hitting the Presumptive nominee on his votes against the 1993 tax bill that the Vice President credits for the economic recovery , his opposition to healthcare reform and his vote against the Kyoto protocol calling them clear signs that his voting record does not show a shift away from the Gingrich Republicans in congress .

He said if Senator McCain was committed to tackling climate change he would have voted for Kyoto, and if he was committed for healthcare reform he would have worked with us then


Schnider: Senator McCain though responded by saying that 95 senators voted against Kyoto as it was a bad treaty and the Clinton admin should take responsibility for that and called the healthcare reform one of the worst designed proposals ever and it showed when Democrats couldn't even get it passed in the house where they need a simple majority when they had it and it was swiftly rejected by the people in 1994 as well.


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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #33 on: July 12, 2020, 08:24:04 PM »

McCain's Potential Vice Presidential Picks:

Schnieder: Today we will be going over who we think are some potential vice presidential picks for both Senator McCain and Vice President Al Gore. Since the RNC will be held we will start with Senator McCain's list. Just to let you know General Colin Powell will be not on this list as he has publically ruled out running for Vice President as he said he is currently not interested in electoral politics.


The Favorites:

Tom Ridge:



John Danforth:



Richard Lugar:



George Voinovich:



Tommy Thompson:



John Warner:



Wildcards:

George W Bush:



Fred Thompson:



Susan Collins:



Peter Fitzgerald:




Schnider: The reason we have George W Bush as a wildcard despite being the runnor up is  while insiders have floated the other 9 names , Governor Bush has not been floated yet but he could potentially in our opinion be considered to fully bring more of the conservative base on board and really help in the South as well.  So Senator McCain like Reagan could decide to name his primary opponent as his running mate but that seems pretty unlikely.

As for the rest its pretty clear that Senator McCain is focused on a Midwestern and Rust Belt strategy but the problem with many of them is that it would not help Senator McCain in the southern states Clinton won last time
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« Reply #34 on: July 12, 2020, 08:52:59 PM »

Danforth is probably his best pick. He can help reclaim the south and keep an ideological balance on the ticket.
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« Reply #35 on: July 12, 2020, 10:00:17 PM »

Danforth is probably his best pick. He can help reclaim the south and keep an ideological balance on the ticket.

And it woukd bring geographical balance as Missouri is among the Rust Belt but also neighboring the south with Arkansas. And it was that year in 2000 that Missouri really started becoming more social conservative.
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« Reply #36 on: July 12, 2020, 11:46:26 PM »

I'm for Lugar, Voinovich or Warner
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« Reply #37 on: July 12, 2020, 11:57:19 PM »

I'd want Ridge, Lugar, Voinovich, Warner, or Collins. I'd say his best pick is Ridge, probably, and it also helps him in PA. Picking Lugar or Collins would definitely be interesting, as it would move the GOP significantly to the center.
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« Reply #38 on: July 13, 2020, 12:10:09 PM »

Gore's Potential Vice Presidential Picks:

Schnider: Now lets go over some possible Vice Presidential picks for Vice President Al Gore. Just to let you know despite much speculation , Senator Joe Lieberman has taken himself out of the running to be vice president saying he is not interested in the position. Ok so now lets go over the list


The Favorites:

Dick Gephardt:



Evan Bayh:



John Kerry:



Bob Graham:



Tom Harkin:



Bob Kerrey:



Wildcards:

Jeanne Shaheen:



Barbara Boxer:



Max Cleland:



Russ Feingold:



Schnider: The real question Vice President Gore will have to ask himself is does he want a pick which will fit more of the Geographic needs of the ticket or ideological needs .
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« Reply #39 on: July 13, 2020, 12:25:45 PM »

For Democrats my favorites are:
1. Evan Bayh
2. Dick Gephardt
3. Bob Graham
4. Tom Harkin
5. Jeanne Shaheen
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« Reply #40 on: July 13, 2020, 01:56:15 PM »

McCain/Thompson 2000!
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« Reply #41 on: July 13, 2020, 03:06:14 PM »

Graham or Shaheen are obviously Gore's smart picks, but knowing that McCain wins in this TL, my guess is he picks Lieberman again or picks someone like Kerry.
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #42 on: July 14, 2020, 03:21:06 AM »
« Edited: July 14, 2020, 12:34:33 PM by Old School Republican »

CNN releases first battleground map for election:

Greenfield: Even though polls right now show Senator McCain with a solid lead over Vice President Gore of around 8 points if you go state by state where the election is really decided you really see that the election is very much for grabs with both candidates having good chances of getting to the magic 270 required to win the White House. We at CNN created our first battleground maps and keep in mind we put in green for tossup any state that we believe will be heavily contested in the fall regardless of what the polls say at the moment. Second the lightly colored states are states we  believe in certain circumstances could become battleground states but at the moment dont look to be while the dark colored states are states where there is very little evidence that it could be contested this fall.



Gore 173
McCain 171
Battleground 194


As you can see both candidates are still around 100 votes away from the White House there are many path ways to get to 270 and the candidates must win states from other parts of the region in order to win.


For example the very important Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania Ohio and Michigan add up to 62 electoral votes meaning ever if either candidate sweeps those 3 states, Senator McCain will still need another 37 electoral votes to get to 270 and Vice President Gore 35. Same with the South because if you assign the southern battlegrounds to each candidate is still well short of 270. So really getting to 270 wont be easy for either candidate.


Just to let you know this battleground state will change as the election goes on with more and more of these battlegrounds becoming light colored states and some maybe even dark color when more evidence starts to come in
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #43 on: July 14, 2020, 11:31:14 AM »

CA, IL, WV, and VT were still swing states in 2000.
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« Reply #44 on: July 14, 2020, 11:53:55 AM »

CA, IL, WV, and VT were still swing states in 2000.
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CA was around likely, IL was lean and VT was likely. But I agree with Gore's environmental policies WV was either a toss-up or lean McCain
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #45 on: July 14, 2020, 12:33:55 PM »

CA, IL, WV, and VT were still swing states in 2000.
Quote
CA was around likely, IL was lean and VT was likely. But I agree with Gore's environmental policies WV was either a toss-up or lean McCain

CA and IL maybe were swing states at the gubernatorial level but by the presidential level they were already gone .

As for WV McCain is a worse fit for the state than W Bush was and remember this is still very early on in the campaign so there hasn’t been much polling done in WV yet and due to that the assumption of WV being a safely democratic state holds . Once the campaign starts and gets into full gear , the rating of WV will change .

VT yah your right so I’ll change it
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« Reply #46 on: July 14, 2020, 12:43:27 PM »

Bush was making campaign stops in Chicagoland and SoCal in 2000.
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #47 on: July 14, 2020, 01:01:54 PM »

Bush was making campaign stops in Chicagoland and SoCal in 2000.


That’s true but it was obviously a mistake as those states had no chance of going to Bush and I don’t think even then they were considered battlegrounds .


Maybe I could move CA or IL into the potential battleground category but it’s hard to see them in any circumstances being within 5 points
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« Reply #48 on: July 14, 2020, 05:34:07 PM »

Bush was making campaign stops in Chicagoland and SoCal in 2000.

Nobody knew about how the states had become “red” or “blue” until election night 2000. As far as Rove knew, Bush would win all the states his father won 12 years earlier.
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #49 on: July 14, 2020, 11:37:21 PM »

Senator McCain Interviewed by Larry King:



King: Senator McCain lets get right into it , you have made campaign finance reform your number one issue of this campaign , but many question how will you get 60 votes to pass such piece of legislation

McCain: Larry if you remember in 1998 the bill got 51 senators to support the piece of legislation and that was before we had an entire presidential campaign devoted to this issue. If I win the White House in November it will send a clear message to congress that the people want campaign finance reform passed and I will use the power of the bully pulpit to make sure that bill passes.

King: Any executive orders you will pass

McCain: Absolutely on day 1 of my administration I will sign executive orders that will ban anyone in my administration from taking a lobbying job after they leave the position they had in my adminstration for 5 years and have a permanent ban on them for ever having power to lobby for foreign governments. Second the executive and judicial appointments I make will be of people who will strictly enforce current campaign finance and anti-corruption laws and regulations, and third the appointment I make to head our party will be of someone who makes grassroots efforts a higher priority than dealing with lobbyists. So I can guarantee the people if you elect me in November , that there will be significant change on this issue from day 1.

King: You have stayed in the past that the President you want to emulate is Teddy Roosevelt can you elaborate on that more

McCain: Sure, President Teddy Roosevelt was one of the most maverick presidents we ever have taking on the establishment of both parties , being a crusader against corruption, helped protect our environment , and he helped turn our nation into a world power with his military buildup and in many ways the problems we face today are similar, we need to take on corruption against lobbyists power, rebuild our military and face the environmental problems of this century.

King: Many though consider though Teddy and Reagan two separate types of Republican and it seems like you claim both . Isnt that contradictory

McCain: Not at all cause if you remember Reagan also took on corruption problems which plagues us for the decades preceding his presidency which was the power of the  bureaucratic and regulatory state and his 1986 tax reform did that when he made the tax code far less complex, then Reagan helped rebuild our military and our morale after the Carter years which helped us win the cold war, and on the environment his actions helped save the ozone layer. So I dont think those statements are contradictory at all

King: Now I know Colin Powell is not interested in Vice President but do you intend to put him in your cabinet

McCain: Absolutely and I can tell you right now that if we win we will give him any national security or foreign policy position he is interested in.

King: I know you haven't chosen your Vice President yet but who are you leaning towards

McCain: I will release my shortlist later this week so you will know who my top 3 is
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