2018 Senate Elections under a Hillary Clinton Presidency
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 19, 2024, 04:09:22 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderator: Dereich)
  2018 Senate Elections under a Hillary Clinton Presidency
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: 2018 Senate Elections under a Hillary Clinton Presidency  (Read 699 times)
President Biden Democrat
mrappaport1220
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 569
United States


P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 07, 2020, 04:13:15 PM »

What would the 2018 Senate Elections look like if Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump in 2016 and became President. Provide maps, explanations, etc.
Logged
Left Wing
FalterinArc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,519
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -8.26, S: -6.09


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 07, 2020, 05:26:31 PM »


All of the Republicans who lost by less than ten win.
Before election: 50-50 (D)
After Election: 58-42 (R)
Logged
Roll Roons
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,034
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 07, 2020, 05:41:52 PM »


All of the Republicans who lost by less than ten win.
Before election: 50-50 (D)
After Election: 58-42 (R)

I'd add at least one of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Jersey. Comstock would have also likely won Kaine's Senate seat in the special.
Logged
Left Wing
FalterinArc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,519
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -8.26, S: -6.09


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 07, 2020, 06:30:38 PM »


All of the Republicans who lost by less than ten win.
Before election: 50-50 (D)
After Election: 58-42 (R)

I'd add at least one of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Jersey. Comstock would have also likely won Kaine's Senate seat in the special.
It is possible Corey Stewart does even better in the primary because very conservative voters would be emboldened by Hillary.
Logged
NewYorkExpress
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,823
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 07, 2020, 07:32:39 PM »

Minnesota (Special): Karin Housely 49%, Tina Smith 48% (R Gain)

Mississippi (Special): Cindy Hyde-Smith 58%, Mike Espy 42% (R Hold)

Virginia (Special): Dave Brat 53%, Justin Fairfax 47% (R Gain)

Arizona: Martha McSally 55%, Kirsten Simena 43% (R Hold)

California: Dianne Feinstein 55%, Kevin De Leon 45% (D Hold)

Connecticut: Chris Murphy 49%, Erin Stewart 48% (D Hold)

Delaware: Tom Carper 60%, Robert Arlett 39 (D Hold)

Florida: Rick Scott 55%, Bill Nelson 45% (R Gain)

Hawaii: Maize Hirono 66% Ron Curtis 34%, (D Hold)

Indiana: Mike Pence 55%, Joe Donnelly 44% (R Gain)

Maine: Bruce Poliquin 40%, Angus King 33%, Zak Ringelstein 7% (R Gain)

Maryland: Ben Cardin 59%, Tony Campbell 39% (D Hold)

Massachusetts: Elizabeth Warren 54%, Charlie Baker 45% (D Hold)

Michigan: Bill Huizenga 50.5%, Debbie Stabenow 49.2% (R Gain)

Minnesota: Erik Paulsen 49%, Amy Klobuchar 48% (R Gain)

Mississippi: Roger Wicker 60%, David Baria, 39% (R Hold)

Missouri: Josh Hawley 57%, Claire McCaskill 42% (R Gain)

Montana: Matt Rosendale 55%, Jon Tester 45% (R Gain)

Nebraska: Deb Fischer 68%, Jane Raybould 31% (R Hold)

Nevada: Dean Heller 46%, Jacky Rosen 44% (R Hold)

New Jersey: Bob Hugin 50%, Bob Menendez 48% (R Gain)

New Mexico: Susana Martinez 49%, Martin Heinrich 48.9% (R Gain)

New York: Kirsten Gillibrand 57%, Harry Wilson 43% (D Hold)

North Dakota: Kevin Cramer, 66%, Heidi Heitkamp 34% (R Gain)

Ohio: Jim Renacci 51%, Sherrod Brown 49% (R Gain)

Pennsylvania: Lou Barletta: 49%, Bob Casey 48% (R Gain)

Rhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse 60%, Robert Flanders 40% (D Hold)

Tennessee: Bob Corker 56%, Jim Cooper 43% (R Hold)

Texas: Ted Cruz 59%, Beto O'Rourke 41% (R Hold)

Utah: Mitt Romney 80%, Jenny Wilson 19% (R Hold)

Vermont: Bernie Sanders 55%, Phil Scott 45% (I/D Hold)

Virginia: Dave Brat 55%, Mark Herring 45% (R Hold)

Washington: Maria Cantwell 51%, Dave Reichert 49% (D Hold)

West Virginia: Patrick Morrisey 60%, Joe Manchin 39% (R Gain)

Wisconsin: Mike Gallagher 53%, Tammy Baldwin 47% (R Gain)

Wyoming: John Barasso 74%, Gary Trauner 25% (R Hold)



Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,742


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 07, 2020, 07:58:18 PM »

Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,776


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 07, 2020, 08:08:04 PM »

It would depend on if her popularity rebounded once she got into office (as it had done with a limited number of previous roles), but I'd take the 2018 map (for Democrats) minus AZ, MI, MT, NV and OH. I think Franken would be pressured to stay in the Senate by a president HRC not wanting to expand the Republican map.

If Comstock or another Republican had previously won the special election, T-Mac would have probably been deployed and would win.

Final numbers: 54 R - 46 D (Doug Jones never wins in this timeline)
Logged
President Biden Democrat
mrappaport1220
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 569
United States


P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 07, 2020, 10:10:49 PM »


All of the Republicans who lost by less than ten win.
Before election: 50-50 (D)
After Election: 58-42 (R)
I think this is really close to what would happen. I think Michigan would stay with the Democrats. Maybe Republicans are able to pick either NJ or WI.
Logged
Left Wing
FalterinArc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,519
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -8.26, S: -6.09


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 07, 2020, 10:12:16 PM »


Virginia (Special): Dave Brat 53%, Justin Fairfax 47% (R Gain)

McAuliffe made it clear he would appoint Bobby Scott
Logged
NewYorkExpress
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,823
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 07, 2020, 10:22:30 PM »

Virginia (Special): Dave Brat 53%, Justin Fairfax 47% (R Gain)

McAuliffe made it clear he would appoint Bobby Scott

I never said Scott would win the primary.
Logged
Roll Roons
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,034
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 07, 2020, 10:43:07 PM »

Virginia (Special): Dave Brat 53%, Justin Fairfax 47% (R Gain)

McAuliffe made it clear he would appoint Bobby Scott

I never said Scott would win the primary.

At that point, Fairfax was just a random attorney. He wouldn't have beaten an appointed Senator and former longtime Congressman in the primary.
Logged
LabourJersey
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,186
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 16, 2020, 05:50:54 PM »

Just to comment on people putting NJ as a Republican pickup:

If Clinton was President and the Democrats looked very vulnerable in the midterms I think Menendez would have been primaryied by someone like Rush Holt or even Don Norcross. The Democratic party of NJ wouldn't have pissed that seat away.

The only reason Menendez is still there is because the Dems assumed (correctly) that a Trump midterm would mean Menendez would do at least the bare minimum to win.
Logged
Illini Moderate
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 918
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 16, 2020, 10:06:11 PM »

I don't really believe that Clinton would have been as unpopular as people think. Clinton would have presided over a great economy and I believe that she would have been much more popular than Trump due to the fact that she wouldn't squander that advantage by constantly undermining herself with incendiary comments and actions.
Logged
𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆
Battista Minola 1616
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,343
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -1.57

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: July 21, 2020, 07:53:23 AM »

I don't really believe that Clinton would have been as unpopular as people think. Clinton would have presided over a great economy and I believe that she would have been much more popular than Trump due to the fact that she wouldn't squander that advantage by constantly undermining herself with incendiary comments and actions.

Well certainly Hillary Clinton in her career has had this thing that she was always more popular while in office than she was while running for an office.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.039 seconds with 12 queries.