2020 redistricting Arkansas

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://mobile.twitter.com/baseballot/status/1456377432060186631

Why does Arkansas  have such a progressive constitution for a southern state ?

I guess it's the long history of Dem control? But that might be an unsatisfactory explanation, given Ds also had long-standing control of other states as well.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

https://mobile.twitter.com/baseballot/status/1456377432060186631

Why does Arkansas  have such a progressive constitution for a southern state ?

I guess it's the long history of Dem control? But that might be an unsatisfactory explanation, given Ds also had long-standing control of other states as well.

The answer you are looking for is up country white domination, plus a smaller black population. This meant that "Conservatives" had less of a wedge to mitigate the demographic advantages derived to the Populist/Progressive wing of the Democratic Party, compared to say the Deep South in contrast. 

Louisiana also has a Populist/Progressive tradition as well, though its roots are much more complex owing to the more diverse demographic backgrounds involved.

[lfromnj]

https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2021/dec/30/arkansas-aclu-files-federal-lawsuit-over-new/

Crazy ACLU lawsuit demanding 15 black majority districts. Maybe you can get 4 in the Delta and draw out some white Dems in Little Rock. but lol at the idea of getting a SW black majority district. Drawing the 4th in the Delta would also be pretty risky. Democrats should just try asking for the 3 that they have to be shored up.

edit: They want 5 black state house districts in the Delta.

[Tintrlvr]

https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2021/dec/30/arkansas-aclu-files-federal-lawsuit-over-new/

Crazy ACLU lawsuit demanding 15 black majority districts. Maybe you can get 4 in the Delta and draw out some white Dems in Little Rock. but lol at the idea of getting a SW black majority district. Drawing the 4th in the Delta would also be pretty risky. Democrats should just try asking for the 3 that they have to be shored up.

edit: They want 5 black state house districts in the Delta.

The article says they had submitted maps that reflected their desires; I'd be interested to see their proposal, at least.

[lfromnj]

https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2021/dec/30/arkansas-aclu-files-federal-lawsuit-over-new/

Crazy ACLU lawsuit demanding 15 black majority districts. Maybe you can get 4 in the Delta and draw out some white Dems in Little Rock. but lol at the idea of getting a SW black majority district. Drawing the 4th in the Delta would also be pretty risky. Democrats should just try asking for the 3 that they have to be shored up.

edit: They want 5 black state house districts in the Delta.

The article says they had submitted maps that reflected their desires; I'd be interested to see their proposal, at least.

https://www.acluarkansas.org/sites/default/files/field_documents/complaint_0.pdf

Page 16. Really hard to look at though.

Overall I think the current map has 4 and they chopped one Black Delta seat after an R won it. It is like Biden +1 ?

The entire region bled population anyway

[I’m not Stu]

What about a map like this? No county splits.

[lfromnj]

https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.ared.131201/gov.uscourts.ared.131201.100.0.pdf
Motion for preliminary injunction for 16 black state house districts denied.

[lfromnj]

https://arktimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/1-main.pdf

VRA Lawsuit over congressional map.

[patzer]

So, is this map likely to have to be replaced now?

It's possible to draw a majority-minority Safe D district in Arkansas.

[Death of a Salesman]

So, is this map likely to have to be replaced now?

It's possible to draw a majority-minority Safe D district in Arkansas.

Is that district majority-black?

[patzer]

No- while it's possible to make a compact majority minority district, it's not possible to make a compact majority black one.

[Nyvin]

As long as the district elects the candidate of African American's choice, it doesn't necessarily have to be majority black.

Similar to the two Detroit MI districts.  That said...I don't think a black VRA seat in Arkansas will actually happen.

[Death of a Salesman]

As long as the district elects the candidate of African American's choice, it doesn't necessarily have to be majority black.

Similar to the two Detroit MI districts.  That said...I don't think a black VRA seat in Arkansas will actually happen.

That’s not the precedent under Gingles. The racial group in question must be “sufficiently large and geographically compact to constitute a majority in a single-member district.”

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah this isn't going to happen through court action - *maybe* if an Independent commission ends up on the ballot but given the Delta's shrinking population, they would probably just draw a purely Little Rock based district by 2030.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/CV__Politics/status/1727090208112529727

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/CV__Politics/status/1727090208112529727

If I had to guess it’s likely attempting to argue unconstitutional dilution of black voters

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/CV__Politics/status/1727090208112529727

The strawman map isn't needed. Only facts.

And the facts are simple. The African American population in Arkansas is far too scattered and small to produce a 50%+1 district under a 4-district map. This benchmark is necessary for the established Gingles analysis for VRA Section 2 districts. This is often despite the fact today that districts could perform well below that 50% line, depending on the part of the country in question. We know that Arkansas could draw a hypothetical compact access district analogous to those in southern VA, but the inability to prove the Gingles conditions like in VA prevents there from being a district.

Which is why the merits the plaintiffs want the court to look at are kinda revolutionary:



Essentially, rewrite the Gingles conditions in light of other compelling factors.

To be blunt, this is not going to fly with this Supreme Court. The case is likely not taken up, reminder few appeals are. It failed in the lower courts cause of Gingles and the activist approach they tried to get around it. Just denying the appeal would affirm their position. If the court does take up the case, it will probably be a weird majority affirming and solidifying Gingles, with some minority liberals going with the plaintiffs and some minority arch-conservatives saying the whole thing should be thrown aside.




This case was always very weak, I wasn't even following it. No, the two Arkansas cases that have more potential for changes are not VRA congressional claims. The first is the Racial Gerrymandering case against the state for cracking Pulaski and particularly the African American community in it - a plaintiff victory here at could only really restore something like the district from last decade. The second case is the one that recently tried to throw out the Private Right of Action. Since the Supreme Count is highly likely to reverse that ruling, the plaintiffs could get their relief - five additional section 2 VRA State House seats.