IA - GQR Research/End Citizens United (partisan): Greenfield +2% (user search)
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  IA - GQR Research/End Citizens United (partisan): Greenfield +2% (search mode)
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Author Topic: IA - GQR Research/End Citizens United (partisan): Greenfield +2%  (Read 2934 times)
WD
Western Democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,573
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -0.35

« on: July 06, 2020, 02:09:31 PM »

Tossup/ Tilt D.

I predict Greenfield by 50-49 and Trump by 51-48
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WD
Western Democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,573
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -0.35

« Reply #1 on: July 06, 2020, 02:16:19 PM »

Yet another reminder, beware Iowa’s recent polling history.

Yeah but Ernst is by no means safe, she’s not even the favorite, I could see this being within 1-2 points either way. Probably seat 52/53 for the Dems
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WD
Western Democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,573
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -0.35

« Reply #2 on: July 06, 2020, 05:32:15 PM »

1. I don’t trust polling in the state.
2. I’m not sure why Greenfield would outrun Biden here.
3. I think Trump narrowly wins Iowa.

While recent polling would normally suggest Lean D, I’m leaving this at Lean R for the above reasons.

because Ernst is a bad candidate?

In this environment, basically everyone, including Trump, is a bad candidate generally speaking.

Why would someone vote Trump/Greenfield?

Beacuse they like Trump and Greenfield as canidates? Most Voters don’t care about policy. How else do you explain all the Trump-Baldwin voters in WI or the Trump-Gianforte-Tester voters in MT.
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