IA - GQR Research/End Citizens United (partisan): Greenfield +2% (user search)
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  IA - GQR Research/End Citizens United (partisan): Greenfield +2% (search mode)
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Author Topic: IA - GQR Research/End Citizens United (partisan): Greenfield +2%  (Read 2937 times)
TrendsareUsuallyReal
TrendsareReal
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« on: July 06, 2020, 02:13:15 PM »

Yet another reminder, beware Iowa’s recent polling history.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
TrendsareReal
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« Reply #1 on: July 06, 2020, 03:16:50 PM »

Remember like two months ago when everyone on this forum thought that Ernst would win by 20 points?

Nobody thought this, lol.

I thought a lot of people thought it was Safe R ad that Ernst would do better than Trump. Last month is when the perception started or turn
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
TrendsareReal
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« Reply #2 on: July 06, 2020, 05:27:42 PM »

1. I don’t trust polling in the state.
2. I’m not sure why Greenfield would outrun Biden here.
3. I think Trump narrowly wins Iowa.

While recent polling would normally suggest Lean D, I’m leaving this at Lean R for the above reasons.

because Ernst is a bad candidate?

Why is Ernst a bad candidate? Her campaign in 2014 was one of the best of the cycle
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
TrendsareReal
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« Reply #3 on: July 07, 2020, 09:49:28 PM »

Love when theres now multiple polls of either the race tied or Greenfield leading, and it's somehow still 'Lean R'

I mean, it’s a partisan pollster, and IA polls specifically have been off by several points for the past three cycles (whereas polls in MI/PA/WI were much more accurate in 2018), so a 2-3 point lead for Greenfield doesn’t give me a lot of confidence. Sure, the polls could be right in IA this time, but given IA’s recent trend, it would take a very good night for Democrats to flip this seat.

This poll is literally showing the same margin (1% less actually) than the Selzer poll showed, and that's nonpartisan. Even if you shaved 2-3 points off, it's a tie. So again, not sure how anyone could say this is anything but a tossup right now.

I don’t know why you keep on getting worked up over people saying that they are skeptical of polls in Iowa overestimating Democrats. People are free to think what they want to about a given race bro
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