IA - GQR Research/End Citizens United (partisan): Greenfield +2% (user search)
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  IA - GQR Research/End Citizens United (partisan): Greenfield +2% (search mode)
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Author Topic: IA - GQR Research/End Citizens United (partisan): Greenfield +2%  (Read 2936 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,808
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« on: July 06, 2020, 03:08:13 PM »

They probably didn’t poll the people who talked to/listened to/hugged/etc. Ernst on one of her many 99-county tours. With Ernst's retail politics and IA's recent polling history -> Lean R.

No
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,808
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #1 on: July 06, 2020, 03:27:27 PM »
« Edited: July 06, 2020, 03:30:41 PM by MR. CORY BOOKER »

Trolling is telling the truth that it's not gonna be a 400 to 500 EC landslide and 12 Senate seats.

Ds didnt even get that in 2008 400 EC votes and win TX and that was D plus 6

Covid 19 wasn't Trump's fault. It takes both parties to find a vaccine and Biden can be blamed if he doesn't find a vaccine in 2021 and Rs take Congress back in 2022

Just like the Rs blamed Ds in 2010 and won 60 House seats with 10 percent unemployment
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,808
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #2 on: July 07, 2020, 04:28:46 AM »

1. I don’t trust polling in the state.
2. I’m not sure why Greenfield would outrun Biden here.
3. I think Trump narrowly wins Iowa.

While recent polling would normally suggest Lean D, I’m leaving this at Lean R for the above reasons.

because Ernst is a bad candidate?

Why is Ernst a bad candidate? Her campaign in 2014 was one of the best of the cycle

2014 was a Gov race Kim Reynolds hadnt signed the abortion ban. Reynolds was much more popular than she was now. She could very well lose to JD Scholten in 2022 if Scholten loses his race for IA 4.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,808
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #3 on: July 07, 2020, 03:43:10 PM »

I remain skeptical of IA polling, but Ernst definitely isn’t safe if the environment doesn’t get better for Republicans. Still Lean R for now.

Biden is up 11 in natl polls, Tom Harkin was in this seat for a long time. Ernst won in 2014 because she ran with Kim Reynolds.  Kim Reynolds isnt popular anymore since she signed an abortion ban. That's why she won by only 3 in 2018 and if she runs again in 2022, JD Scholten if he loses in 2020 will be back to challenging her.

In addition our 3 Congressional races, except for IA 4, Dems are leading in.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,808
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #4 on: July 07, 2020, 04:06:26 PM »

Not only that Seltzer had Greenfield up and it's the most accurate pollster
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,808
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #5 on: July 07, 2020, 04:51:13 PM »

Love when theres now multiple polls of either the race tied or Greenfield leading, and it's somehow still 'Lean R'

I mean, it’s a partisan pollster, and IA polls specifically have been off by several points for the past three cycles (whereas polls in MI/PA/WI were much more accurate in 2018), so a 2-3 point lead for Greenfield doesn’t give me a lot of confidence. Sure, the polls could be right in IA this time, but given IA’s recent trend, it would take a very good night for Democrats to flip this seat.

No it wont, 3 IA districts are Democratic and the Selzer poll shows Dems leading in all three just not IA 4, Ernst  will lose
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,808
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #6 on: July 08, 2020, 01:19:26 AM »

I remain skeptical of IA polling, but Ernst definitely isn’t safe if the environment doesn’t get better for Republicans. Still Lean R for now.

Biden is up 11 in natl polls, Tom Harkin was in this seat for a long time. Ernst won in 2014 because she ran with Kim Reynolds.  Kim Reynolds isnt popular anymore since she signed an abortion ban. That's why she won by only 3 in 2018 and if she runs again in 2022, JD Scholten if he loses in 2020 will be back to challenging her.

In addition our 3 Congressional races, except for IA 4, Dems are leading in.

Kim Reynolds wasn't running in 2014...

She ran with Terry Bradstad as LT Gov

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Iowa_gubernatorial_election

Terry Bradstaf Gov
Kim Reynolds LT Gov

Joni Ernst Rep Senate nominee
Bruce Braley Dem Senate nominee 2014


Yes Joni Ernst ran with Kim Reynolds as Terry Bradstad running mate, okayyyyu
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,808
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #7 on: July 08, 2020, 01:43:28 PM »

Dems are invested in: AK, AZ, CO, GA, IL, IA, KY, KS, ME, MI, MN, MT, NH, NJ, NM, NC, SC, TX.and VA

Grassley is so ashamed of Trump, he wont even show up at RNC convention, that's how much trouble Ernst is in IA with an unpopular Trump, along with her on ballot. That why all our D incumbents are winning except in IA 4
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