1. I don’t trust polling in the state.
2. I’m not sure why Greenfield would outrun Biden here.
3. I think Trump narrowly wins Iowa.
While recent polling would normally suggest Lean D, I’m leaving this at Lean R for the above reasons.
because Ernst is a bad candidate?
Why is Ernst a bad candidate? Her campaign in 2014 was one of the best of the cycle
2020 is not 2014. Iowa seems like AZ in the sense that they like their candidates to be independents / mavericks in a way. Ernst has been nothing but a Trump hack.
Chuck Grassley says hello.
(I'm not disputing that Ernst is in trouble. I just think the notion that Iowa likes their candidates to be a maverick is not remotely true.)
