IA - GQR Research/End Citizens United (partisan): Greenfield +2% (user search)
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  IA - GQR Research/End Citizens United (partisan): Greenfield +2% (search mode)
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Author Topic: IA - GQR Research/End Citizens United (partisan): Greenfield +2%  (Read 2997 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: July 06, 2020, 02:57:18 PM »

They probably didn’t poll the people who talked to/listened to/hugged/etc. Ernst on one of her many 99-county tours. With Ernst's retail politics and IA's recent polling history -> Lean R.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: July 07, 2020, 03:37:45 PM »

Chuck Grassley says hello.

(I'm not disputing that Ernst is in trouble.  I just think the notion that Iowa likes their candidates to be a maverick is not remotely true.)

Yeah, I have no idea why someone would perceive Grassley as less "out of touch" with his constituents than Ernst, especially in a "populist" state like Iowa. What could it possibly be?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #2 on: July 08, 2020, 12:45:27 PM »

Love when theres now multiple polls of either the race tied or Greenfield leading, and it's somehow still 'Lean R'

I mean, it’s a partisan pollster, and IA polls specifically have been off by several points for the past three cycles (whereas polls in MI/PA/WI were much more accurate in 2018), so a 2-3 point lead for Greenfield doesn’t give me a lot of confidence. Sure, the polls could be right in IA this time, but given IA’s recent trend, it would take a very good night for Democrats to flip this seat.

This poll is literally showing the same margin (1% less actually) than the Selzer poll showed, and that's nonpartisan. Even if you shaved 2-3 points off, it's a tie. So again, not sure how anyone could say this is anything but a tossup right now.

I don’t know why you keep on getting worked up over people saying that they are skeptical of polls in Iowa overestimating Democrats. People are free to think what they want to about a given race bro

You don't just get to choose though to listen to polls when you want to and not when you don't. What I'm saying is the polls, and all the fundamentals (fundraising, etc.) show that this is literally tossup. I just don't understand why anyone would think otherwise.

None of this actually addresses his question as to why you seem to be so emotionally invested in other people's posts.

Also, uh, Democrats are doing well in fundraising pretty much everywhere, even in races which are quite obviously not Tossups.
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