What is the biggest reason Biden is ahead right now?

[Xing]

Obviously, there are multiple reasons, but what’s the biggest factor in his polling lead?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The COVID-19 crisis has added to Trump's woes, but Biden was leading before this point and other leaders have turned it to their advantage with a sustained rally-the-flag effect. This extends to leaders who took differing approaches to the crises but had one thing in common which they did not with Trump: the appearance of discipline. Cuomo, for instance, has handled the crisis terribly, but gets high approval ratings.

For those arguing polarisation would stop Trump getting this, he did get a small rally around the flag effect at first despite his best efforts and it's not as if other rightwing governments have failed to retain support elsewhere. The bar was low, but he missed it anyway.

[Roll Roons]

All of these things play a part, but I think Trump's overall unpopularity is the overarching factor. He's been underwater for pretty much his entire presidency, and Biden was ahead in polls, albeit not as much as now, even before coronavirus, the recession or George Floyd. Those factors certainly exacerbated Trump's unpopularity and boosted Biden's lead, but I think Biden would still be winning without them, though the race would certainly be closer to a tossup.

Biden's moderate image also makes him more acceptable to swing voters who don't like Trump's temperament but would be turned off by a Bernie type. From what it seems like, he is running a smart, focused campaign that's turning the race into a referendum on Trump by highlighting his failures on the pandemic, the economy and race relations.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump says he looks like the lone ranger in a mask and that means he puts the mask over his eyes, his repeated nonusages of mask isnt helping along with the Covid 19

[MT Treasurer]

He’s a Democrat and he isn’t Trump. Yes, it sometimes really just is as simple as that.

[Camaro33]

He's a dead person who hasn't spoke or made very public showings in a long time. The basement campaign of his is literally genius.

[Brittain33]

I voted for the economy, but I really think I should have voted for COVID because that made the difference between a small margin and a huge win as it shook lose a bunch of seniors.

[GP270watch]

A little bit of everything might be eroding some of the softer Trump supporters.

 Trump has a record now and it's easier to run as an outsider promising easy fixes to everything than it is to govern. Trump has few legislative and executive accomplishments. Immigration, infrastructure, and healthcare are huge areas where he has totally failed.

 Healthcare really hurts the Republican party. It might not be the top day to day story(even with the Covid-19 pandemic mismanagement) but our healthcare system and its non-affordability is an issue that sways voters especially people who are not political or ideological.

There were voters who disliked HRC and saw Trump as something different. Some of these people are now sick of Trump and his antics, where before they were willing to let him grow into the job. But now they're sick of his tweeting, decorum, and constant fights with people including his very own government officials who he hired or appointed.

[CookieDamage]

COVID-19   

He was leading before COVID

The economy/unemployment rate

He was leading during economically good times    

Trump’s recent statements    

He was leading before recent statements
    

He’s “centrist”       

Other candidates to the left were leading/competitive. This may be a reason why he's leading by a lot tho. But perhaps, Sanders, Warren, or Bloomberg could also be leading by as much.

He’s running a good campaign

He was also leading when he was down in the primaries and his campaign was perceived as a flop.

He’s not ahead, the polls are wrong   

Sure jan   

Trump’s overall unpopularity

This is key to why he's leading imo.

----

Now as to why he's leading by this much, I'd say COVID and Trump's terrible response to the pandemic and recent social issues.

[Orser67]

1)Trump's overall unpopularity
2)Covid-19
3)He's a solid candidate running a decent campaign

[Ferguson97]

1)Trump's overall unpopularity
2)Covid-19
3)He's a solid candidate running a decent campaign

[ProudModerate2]

1)Trump's overall unpopularity
2)Covid-19
3)He's a solid candidate running a decent campaign

[NHI]

Boiled down to a simple reason: He's not Donald Trump.

[Mr. Smith]

It's COVID.

Trump can't use the same tactics that would likely fell anyone or everyone against him because not dying is the one thing that people pay attention to for longer than a goldfish.

Simultaneously, the virus provides excellent cover to do in layman's terms "not feed the troll", which none of the 15 GOP rivals even tried and the conservative media were able to prevent Hillary from doing.


Without those, Biden would actually have to work at it. Instead, he gets the prize for basic decency.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Trump's handling of COVID

[MT Treasurer]

Trump's handling of COVID

Which is why we had like twenty TX polls showing the state as a pure Tossup even before COVID-19?

[The Dowager Mod]

Because he is running against an amoral scumbag.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

He's a dead person who hasn't spoke or made very public showings in a long time. The basement campaign of his is literally genius.

Biden was in public just 5 days ago and has made numerous public speeches in the past 2-3 weeks.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

He's a dead person who hasn't spoke or made very public showings in a long time. The basement campaign of his is literally genius.

U good?

[HisGrace]

I think Biden would be leading regardless because of Trump's unpopularity. But he absolutely would not be on pace to win like 350 EV's and 53/54 percent of the vote if not for Corona. Trump not being able to hold as many rallies is also a disadvantage for him and hampers his ability to catch up.

[bagelman]

He's a dead person who hasn't spoke or made very public showings in a long time. The basement campaign of his is literally genius.

President McKinley ran a campaign on his front porch in Canton before media, and won.

But really it's because Biden is not Donald Trump. Trump's mishandling of COVID has helped him but isn't responsible for his current lead. Example, here's a map with gray states leaning towards Trump sans COVID.

Biden still wins 289 without any of them.

[RaphaelDLG]

I mean, his overall unpopularity is probably the proximate cause, which is itself caused by a lot of things, including his response to COVID-19

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

It’s mostly due to Trump’s unpopularity. Biden being a centrist is worth a few points, but not enough to have even given Trump the PV lead even before Covid (Trump may have been ahead in the EC, idk what the exact PV numbers were looking like in Feb). Covid really helped Biden get a very solid single digit lead, but Biden wasn’t regularly hitting double digits until the Floyd protests (and Trump’s lackluster response).

Basically Trump has been leaking like a sieve since impeachment and things have just gotten worse. I would still say it’s his overall unpopularity because I don’t think that there’s a single event that is responsible for his low polling numbers, but rather his poor polling is due to people getting sick and tired of him screwing things up over and over again.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

TBH i think it's a mix of both Trump's unpopularity and Covid, if Trump handled Covid right, he probably would be keeping this race quite competitive.

[tjstarling]

While I do think COVID is going to be the bigger albatross for Trump long term, I’m gonna go on a bit of a limb and pinpoint another incident as being a major source of perception change about Trump. I went from feeling more bullish on his chances than polling was showing to really feeling something had shifted. The event I’m referring to is the gassing of the protesters and the photo op holding up that random a** bible. It really has nothing to actual racial context of the protest themselves but more looking at this guy, during a time of national vulnerability on many fronts, seemingly lost without a clue of how to act and so utterly absorbed in his own narcissism. Claiming law and order yet he’s in charge and it seems like all over the country there’s nothing but disorder under his watch and his paralysis at addressing it substantively. Don’t get me wrong, he’s been incompetent and narcissistic his whole term in office, but this just felt so much more tangible than many of the other things (e.g., impeachment). I really think a feeling of exhaustion has been generated towards him, which, for an incumbent, an exhausted public is the last thing you want. Things could change, but I think people want to move on and that’s what’s driving Biden’s lead.