Greenfield vs Gideon

[Arizona Iced Tea]

A lot of Dems seem to be ignoring the Iowa race, but I think it has some serious potential to flip, even more so than the Maine race. Ernst is toxic in a way that Collins isn't even close to being, and Greenfield fits the Iowa brand of politics pretty well. Remember that a lot of Iowa went blue in 2018, and Obama won this state by pretty strong margins both times.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Gideon, marginally. They're both tilt D states at the senatorial level as of now, but Gideon has a longer record (and presumably more name ID) and the fundamentals lie more in her favour. I'd need more polling of both races (but especially Maine) to be confident in this judgement.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Gideon. I’d say ME is a Toss-Up while IA is Lean R.

[Upstater]

Gideon, due to the unpopularity of Susan Collins.

[YE]

Gideon because I’m not too confident in polling in Iowa and I don’t think Greenfield will outrun Biden by much if at all.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Gideon, and it's not close.

[kph14]

Gideon, and it's not close.

[somethingkindav]

What makes Greenfield fit Iowa well? Genuine question, I was under the impression that Ernst's "folksy appeal" was tailored for Iowa

[The Mamdani Virus]

Gideon, and I say this as someone who thinks Collins is in a much better shape than many people think.

[MABA 2020]

100% Gideon

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Ds can still win the Senate without either seat. AL, AK, CO, GA, MT, SC

[SnowLabrador]

Gideon, and I say this as someone who thinks Collins is in a much better shape than many people think.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Why is it so hard to believe that Kelly or Gideon or Cunningham can lose and Ds have enough seats in MT, AL, CO, SC, GA and AK with Gross as an indy to still win the majority.  McSally, Ernst, Tillis and Collins aren't polarizing like Daines or McConnell

Kelly isnt winning by 15 pts and Collins isnt up by and Cunningham isnt winning by 9

[Coolface Sock #42069]

What makes Greenfield fit Iowa well? Genuine question, I was under the impression that Ernst's "folksy appeal" was tailored for Iowa

I’ve always thought that as well, but clearly Ernst is behind right now.

I guess her big win in 2014 was against a historically awful opponent, who I believe Politico ended up calling the worst Democratic candidate of the cycle, and Hillary was also a pretty poor candidate for the state or at least ran a very poor campaign if winning Iowa was any kind of a goal for her. Maybe Iowa just voted red twice in a row but really isn’t that red of a state.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Obviously Gideon. Greenfield in Iowa is proving to be a surprisingly good recruit so far, but Iowa is inherently less Democratic and less likely to elect a Democrat than Maine in general.

[Non Swing Voter]

I agree that Iowa could flip but Maine is more likely to.  I'd say Maine is lean D whereas Iowa is a tossup or slightly lean R.

[Politics Fan]

Gideon easily who I would argue is even a slight favourite like tilt D against Collins. Greenfield is no better than generic D and only wins if Biden can win Iowa by at least 2-3.