Kanye is out (UPDATE: Kanye is in again)

[redjohn]

I'd wait until we find out whether this is legit or a temporary publicity stunt before making apocalyptic remarks about Kanye costing Biden the election. Even IF he's running, he'll probably get 1-3% in most states, mostly from voters who were not at all on Biden's side anyways. I wouldn't worry too much.

[pppolitics]

I'd wait until we find out whether this is legit or a temporary publicity stunt before making apocalyptic remarks about Kanye costing Biden the election. Even IF he's running, he'll probably get 1-3% in most states, mostly from voters who were not at all on Biden's side anyways. I wouldn't worry too much.

Even if he is really running, he's getting <1%

[morgankingsley]

Could people just write his name anyway

[morgankingsley]

He's probably not going to run too hard, but he will get several votes anyways by people who either drank the kool aid or people who want to be funny

[Oryxslayer]

No, it's an album stunt. It however has revealed who has already drunk too much koolaid and never was a friend despite their attempts at appeal...like say Musk.

[Battista Minola 1616]

I hope you're correct, we can't afford another four years of Trump. But I don't think the black vote is as set in stone as most believe. Trump has become more detested in the cities and inner burbs recently, not less, with the rise of protests etc. so I think shy supporters are out there but no study or poll will detect it. This is PARTIALLY based on my gut feeling yes, which, not trying to toot my own horn, served me well in my 2016 predictions. I might also be completely wrong, no problem admitting that.

That being said, I also recall another poll from maybe a year back asking voters their mood on Trump, there were four or five options, the two negative options being "displeased" and "angry." Most white Dem voters chose angry but a slim majority of black Dem voters chose just displeased, not angry. Again, this leads me to believe there is more room to grow in the black community than conventional wisdom would suggest. I'll never vote for someone who makes me angry, but there's still a chance I'd vote for someone I merely displeased.

Well...
FiveThirtyEight had an article some months ago about how White Americans in both parties are much more motivated by anger than Black Americans. According to this article since 1980 White Democrats have always been more angry at the Republican candidate than Black Democrats.
This might have to do with social norms in the Black community, or with a feeling among Black people that the system is going to serve them unequally anyways so why be angry. I don't know if you are Black, you could have better knowledge about this.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I've noticed some people unironically backing him.  If you think a guy that has been referred to as a megalomaniac control freak would be a good President you're just making dumb choices.

Not to mention, you would be voting against the first black VP who could truly take office in early 2021. Unlike Kanye and co.

Biden has announced his running mate already?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So this entire thread has been a mix of people taking this seriously because they have no idea who Kanye is and how he acts and a bunch of cranky boomers reminding us that (C)RAP ISN’T REAL MUSIC

very on brand, Talk Elections

You listen to metalcore and are also a Kanye West fan?  

[Progressive Pessimist]

Of course this would happen! Why not? Things were going so well that something completely out of left field had to happen to potentially put it in jeopardy.

Now, I don't want to freak out too much because this very well may all just be a publicity stunt. But it's frustrating for there to be so much uncertainty with it. Kanye West is such an unstable lunatic that it's always hard to tell when he's being serious and when he is putting on a front. I really don't like the murkiness of this. Anyway, him putting this out there at all and receiving even the smallest amount of reciprocated support may very well be enough to make him consider running more seriously. Even as he may not gain ballot access he has enough influence to be able to mount what could be a somewhat successful write-in campaign that will most likely take more votes away from Biden. I don't buy that this part of some scheme to help Trump though. West may have supported Trump previously, and may still, but like his idol and fellow narcissist, he puts himself first and probably genuinely thinks he can become President.

Sure, that's all speculation, but it's especially concerning and disheartening to see perfectly rational people, like some on this forum, who are unironically considering backing him if he is serious. Clearly some folks have learned nothing from 2016, whether out of complacency or purity, and the disastrous situations it led to-you know, our current borderline dystopian reality. Do people really want to exchange one unqualified egotistical maniac for another? Can't we just have a serious person with serious policies like Biden be President and be done with it? Why does our current reality have to be so stupid!?

Also I never liked Kanye West's music ever (though I never outright despised him personally as much as I have until the last few years) and everybody who has ever praised him and his music has contributed to the guy's ego like with Trump and anybody who ever praised him as "a successful billionaire businessman."

[Gracile]

This is the funniest Atlas thread in months.

[Hammy]

I'd wait until we find out whether this is legit or a temporary publicity stunt before making apocalyptic remarks about Kanye costing Biden the election. Even IF he's running, he'll probably get 1-3% in most states, mostly from voters who were not at all on Biden's side anyways. I wouldn't worry too much.

Making apocalyptic remarks about the election is Atlas tradition.

[Badger]

I'm going to guess the chances of trump and / or his organization contacting Kanye to feed his ego and convince him to do this is somewhere north of 90%. He and his people are just stupid and out of touch enough to think that Kanye West might be a big draw to Black voters.

The Odds of trump campaign dollars and resources going towards getting Kanye on the ballot and afterwards promoting his campaign are somewhere north of 99%. Because again, only the Trump campaign could believe that Kanye West could seriously siphon away a tangible number of black votes.

[walleye26]

Does anybody know which states are closed already for ballot access?

[Badger]

I made a breakdown here:

Already Missed
Arizona (State deadline is not until September, but requires an Federal Elections Commission filing by 6/14.)
Maine (6/1 deadline)
North Carolina (3/3 deadline, also an FEC deadline of 6/30)
Texas (state and FEC deadline of 5/8)

Very Unlikely
Florida (132,781 signatures [!] required by 7/15)
Colorado (no signature requirement, only a filing fee, but he's very unlikely to be able to meet the requirements to file with the FEC by that deadline of 7/10.)
Georgia (currently no signature requirement after a federal judge struck down the previous high requirement and the legislature did not revise the law, only a filing fee. But the FEC deadline is 7/11.)
Michigan (30,000 signatures by 7/16, with at least 100 from half of the state's congressional districts.)
Nevada (9608 signatures by 8/14, but also an FEC filing deadline of 7/7)

The rest
Iowa (1500 signatures by 8/14)
Minnesota (2000 signatures 8/18)
New Hampshire (2000 signatures by 9/12)
Ohio (5000 signatures by 8/5)
Pennsylvania (5000 signatures by 8/3)
Wisconsin (2000 signatures by 8/4)

None of those are exactly impossible, but might be a heavy lift for a campaign that officially does not even exist yet and is unlikely to recruit the sort of organizing talent needed to do the canvassing needed to collect signatures, especially during a pandemic.

The single easiest state would probably be Louisiana, which requires either 5000 signatures or a far easier $500 fee by 8/21. Colorado and Georgia would be pretty easy if he files with the FEC in a week, but don't hold your breath on that...or ever.

I hate to engage in doomsaying over such a silly candidacy, but that last group of states are all pretty damn competitive and important oh, not to mention having relatively low thresholds.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

None of you can stop Yeezy season.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I made a breakdown here:

Already Missed
Arizona (State deadline is not until September, but requires an Federal Elections Commission filing by 6/14.)
Maine (6/1 deadline)
North Carolina (3/3 deadline, also an FEC deadline of 6/30)
Texas (state and FEC deadline of 5/8)

Very Unlikely
Florida (132,781 signatures [!] required by 7/15)
Colorado (no signature requirement, only a filing fee, but he's very unlikely to be able to meet the requirements to file with the FEC by that deadline of 7/10.)
Georgia (currently no signature requirement after a federal judge struck down the previous high requirement and the legislature did not revise the law, only a filing fee. But the FEC deadline is 7/11.)
Michigan (30,000 signatures by 7/16, with at least 100 from half of the state's congressional districts.)
Nevada (9608 signatures by 8/14, but also an FEC filing deadline of 7/7)

The rest
Iowa (1500 signatures by 8/14)
Minnesota (2000 signatures 8/18)
New Hampshire (2000 signatures by 9/12)
Ohio (5000 signatures by 8/5)
Pennsylvania (5000 signatures by 8/3)
Wisconsin (2000 signatures by 8/4)

None of those are exactly impossible, but might be a heavy lift for a campaign that officially does not even exist yet and is unlikely to recruit the sort of organizing talent needed to do the canvassing needed to collect signatures, especially during a pandemic.

The single easiest state would probably be Louisiana, which requires either 5000 signatures or a far easier $500 fee by 8/21. Colorado and Georgia would be pretty easy if he files with the FEC in a week, but don't hold your breath on that...or ever.

I hate to engage in doomsaying over such a silly candidacy, but that last group of states are all pretty damn competitive and important oh, not to mention having relatively low thresholds.

Somehow I have a feeling that not many meter wide hat wearing black church ladies are going to vote for Kanye West.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Why is this obvious joke from a joke "candidate" any serious attention? Even if he tries to run, he will go nowhere. Let alone obstacles to get on the ballot in a significant number of states, especially within a very short period of time.

It's getting serious attention from folks who think any independent candidate that joins the race who is <50 and/or non-white means Trump automatically wins re-election.

I don't know what it says about them, their faith in Biden coalescing both demographics or their awareness of Kanye West in the last decade

[Hammy]

Why is this obvious joke from a joke "candidate" any serious attention? Even if he tries to run, he will go nowhere. Let alone obstacles to get on the ballot in a significant number of states, especially within a very short period of time.

It's getting serious attention from folks who think any independent candidate that joins the race who is <50 and/or non-white means Trump automatically wins re-election.

I don't know what it says about them, their faith in Biden coalescing both demographics or their awareness of Kanye West in the last decade

It's more a matter of name recognition and pretty much anybody to the left of Trump, as Trump's voters are pretty much baked in and wont go for anybody else unless they think he's not going far enough.

[longtimelurker]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that a huge percentage, maybe a majority, of Kanye's most ardent fans, are people who are not registered to vote and had no intention of voting in the upcoming election.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/SeanPerryman3/status/1279771716651270145?s=20

I wouldn't call him a genius (more like crazyman) but this is basically been my thoughts throughout the entire process, thoughts that I should have made clear throughout this and the absurd amount of other Kanye threads (until they were appropriately merged).

[AltWorlder]

Kanye would be the new Perot, an independent candidate who transcends left and right and who would peel votes away both major party nominees.

[EJ24]

Kanye would be the new Perot, an independent candidate who transcends left and right and who would peel votes away both major party nominees.

AltWorlder, I remember Ross Perot, I knew Ross Perot, Ross Perot was a friend of mine.

Kanye, you are no Ross Perot.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I made a breakdown here:

Already Missed
Arizona (State deadline is not until September, but requires an Federal Elections Commission filing by 6/14.)
Maine (6/1 deadline)
North Carolina (3/3 deadline, also an FEC deadline of 6/30)
Texas (state and FEC deadline of 5/8)

Very Unlikely
Florida (132,781 signatures [!] required by 7/15)
Colorado (no signature requirement, only a filing fee, but he's very unlikely to be able to meet the requirements to file with the FEC by that deadline of 7/10.)
Georgia (currently no signature requirement after a federal judge struck down the previous high requirement and the legislature did not revise the law, only a filing fee. But the FEC deadline is 7/11.)
Michigan (30,000 signatures by 7/16, with at least 100 from half of the state's congressional districts.)
Nevada (9608 signatures by 8/14, but also an FEC filing deadline of 7/7)

The rest
Iowa (1500 signatures by 8/14)
Minnesota (2000 signatures 8/18)
New Hampshire (2000 signatures by 9/12)
Ohio (5000 signatures by 8/5)
Pennsylvania (5000 signatures by 8/3)
Wisconsin (2000 signatures by 8/4)

None of those are exactly impossible, but might be a heavy lift for a campaign that officially does not even exist yet and is unlikely to recruit the sort of organizing talent needed to do the canvassing needed to collect signatures, especially during a pandemic.

The single easiest state would probably be Louisiana, which requires either 5000 signatures or a far easier $500 fee by 8/21. Colorado and Georgia would be pretty easy if he files with the FEC in a week, but don't hold your breath on that...or ever.

I hate to engage in doomsaying over such a silly candidacy, but that last group of states are all pretty damn competitive and important oh, not to mention having relatively low thresholds.

Also worth noting while those thresholds might seem not too difficult on paper, this time they'd be sought: 1-During a pandemic, 2-with only about a month or month and a half to go she campaigns usually allot several months for this and 3-with no real campaign infrastructure set up at all. And Kanye's not going to create a usable infrastructure overnight.

Like who the hell is going go volunteer to collect those? Who is so dedicated to the notion of being able to vote for a silly meme candidacy that they're willing to use their free time wandering around in sweltering summer heat and having to wear a mask in some locations harassing people to sign their petition for no pay? A bit different than posting some dumb meme online.

[mardigrappa]

I wonder if he will even get more votes than Bernie did in the general in 2016..

I'd be surprised if he even gets 2 million votes, which would put him in the ballpark of the greens, give or take a few thousand.

And I don't see why people that are disaffected about Trump or Biden would be voting for Kanye to begin with. Even if he is making a serious pitch, his character in the political world is still heavily damaged from the Trump support so I have a hard time seeing this hurting Democrats more than Bernie in 2016 or 2020.

[Battista Minola 1616]

This thread is like the collection of all the worst paranoias, memes and traditions of this forum all at once, it seems to me.