Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
Posts: 8,402
Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06
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« on: July 04, 2020, 06:34:25 AM » |
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IF Biden can manage to carry Florida on Election Night, it obviously puts him into a nice scenario where he only needs to carry one of Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin to win the Presidency, assuming he also holds all of HRC's 2016 states and discounting states like NC/GA.
If Trump carries it (the scenario towards which I still tilt in my predictions), Biden would need to carry Pennsylvania and then (a) another Rust Belt state and Arizona or (b) Michigan and Wisconsin. It's worth noting that PA + MI without Arizona results in a 269-269 tie and he could still eek out a 270-268 victory with HRC's 2016 map+AZ+MI+WI (without PA). For simplicity's sake, we'll assume that NE-02 goes for Trump.
In short, Florida is still a big EV prize. But Trump has more to lose than Biden should the state not go his way.
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