Trafalgar Group - FL: TIE

[Granite City]

June 29-July 2, 1,072 LV.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1wz76zNVSrvvmbfz7iOOEdRMMuJZvseC3/view

Biden: 46%
Trump: 46%

So if both OANN and Trafalgar can only find a Trump tie in Florida, maybe it's not eternally Tilt/Lean R?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

MoE: 2.91%

Other party candidate 5%
Undecided 3%

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

IF Biden can manage to carry Florida on Election Night, it obviously puts him into a nice scenario where he only needs to carry one of Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin to win the Presidency, assuming he also holds all of HRC's 2016 states and discounting states like NC/GA. 

If Trump carries it (the scenario towards which I still tilt in my predictions), Biden would need to carry Pennsylvania and then (a) another Rust Belt state and Arizona or (b) Michigan and Wisconsin.  It's worth noting that PA + MI without Arizona results in a 269-269 tie and he could still eek out a 270-268 victory with HRC's 2016 map+AZ+MI+WI (without PA).  For simplicity's sake, we'll assume that NE-02 goes for Trump.  

In short, Florida is still a big EV prize.  But Trump has more to lose than Biden should the state not go his way.  

[McGarnagle]

If Trumpflagar group says its a tie, Trump's in trouble

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Biden is collapsing!!11

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump should be worried about OH the most since they are changing the Cleveland Indians name and its home to Lebron James.

[Ferguson97]

Trump should be worried about OH the most since they are changing the Cleveland Indians name and its home to Lebron James.

Wait, you think the Cleveland Indian name-change hurts Trump? Literally how? And what does LeBron James have to do with anything?

[BobbieMac]

Interesting this would put Biden at +3.5 nationally on UNS; the last Trafalgar national poll had  Biden +0.96 or something weird, which actually shows a massive 2.5 point swing!!! 

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

If Trafalgar has it a tie here it means Biden is leading by 3-5 lol

[redjohn]

I feel like they look at previous polls and just come up with their numbers... Nevertheless, a tie in Florida wouldn't be surprising at all. It seems very likely it doesn't vote for either candidate by a 3+ point margin.

[cg41386]

Trump should be worried about OH the most since they are changing the Cleveland Indians name and its home to Lebron James.

Wait, you think the Cleveland Indian name-change hurts Trump? Literally how? And what does LeBron James have to do with anything?

Just smile politely and move along.

[Progressive Pessimist]

"Is this is it? Is this all you can conjure, Saruman Trafalgar?"

[ProudModerate2]

"Is this is it? Is this all you can conjure, Saruman Trafalgar?"

Careful what you say.
The eye is always watching.

[Alben Barkley]

HAHAHAHAHA

This is the best both these hacks and the OANN hacks could do in Florida!

You know what that means for Trump?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZY5DBmgC_A

[Buzz]

Comparing Trafalgar to OANN is idiotic

[Woody]

HAHAHAHAHA

This is the best both these hacks and the OANN hacks could do in Florida!

You know what that means for Trump?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZY5DBmgC_A

Trafalgar was one of if not the most accurate pollster in 2016, so I wouldn't be bragging.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds believe that Biden is gonna sweep all 5 states in the Confederacy GA, NC, VA, FL.and TX, wont happen. Even in 2008, that didnt happen

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Florida President by Trafalgar Group on 2020-07-02

Summary: D: 46%, R: 46%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Wiz in Wis]

New Poll: Florida President by Trafalgar Group on 2020-07-02

Summary: D: 46%, R: 46%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Can we not enter Trafalgar polls into the database? I mean, this is clearly garbage, and we don't put in the OANN polls.

[Wiz in Wis]

Comparing Trafalgar to OANN is idiotic

They had Kemp winning by 12 in 2018.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is gonna win FL

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Florida President by Trafalgar Group on 2020-07-02

Summary: D: 46%, R: 46%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Can we not enter Trafalgar polls into the database? I mean, this is clearly garbage, and we don't put in the OANN polls.

Trafalgar is a legitimate poll and it's included in other averages, so I think we should include it. I have not been putting in the OANN polls because those are obviously being manipulated, but a standalone Gravis poll should also be put into the database.

[Use Your Illusion]

If Trumpflagar group says its a tie, Trump's in trouble

Absolutely not. The last time FL voted against the incumbent was 1980 and has been reliable "Lean R" territory ever since. This is proven by the fact Democrats have carried the state exactly 3 times by the skin of their teeth percetnage-wise since 1976 (twice being Obama) and Democrats now losing at basically every level of government except mayors of big cities. Literally the only reason Clinton and Obama performed as well as they did was the biggest blue wave year ever in 2008 and Perot eating 400,000 votes. It would have resulted in Clinton either losing or winning by the skin of his teeth like Obama did in 2012.


Trafalgar sampling a tie means there's a wealth of Trump voters out there ready to crush election night and Biden needs to not count on FL as a path to 270. This is probably the most unpopular President ever and Florida literally voted for Ron DeSantis as governor becuase Trump told them to. Trump is a ing GOD to these people down here.



Just please trust me on this.

[Ferguson97]

If Trumpflagar group says its a tie, Trump's in trouble

Absolutely not. The last time FL voted against the incumbent was 1980 and has been reliable "Lean R" territory ever since. This is proven by the fact Democrats have carried the state exactly 3 times by the skin of their teeth percetnage-wise since 1976 (twice being Obama) and Democrats now losing at basically every level of government except mayors of big cities. Literally the only reason Clinton and Obama performed as well as they did was the biggest blue wave year ever in 2008 and Perot eating 400,000 votes. It would have resulted in Clinton either losing or winning by the skin of his teeth like Obama did in 2012.


Trafalgar sampling a tie means there's a wealth of Trump voters out there ready to crush election night and Biden needs to not count on FL as a path to 270. This is probably the most unpopular President ever and Florida literally voted for Ron DeSantis as governor becuase Trump told them to. Trump is a ing GOD to these people down here.



Just please trust me on this.

You don't think coronavirus will make a difference? Older voters are turning against Trump.

[Use Your Illusion]

If Trumpflagar group says its a tie, Trump's in trouble

Absolutely not. The last time FL voted against the incumbent was 1980 and has been reliable "Lean R" territory ever since. This is proven by the fact Democrats have carried the state exactly 3 times by the skin of their teeth percetnage-wise since 1976 (twice being Obama) and Democrats now losing at basically every level of government except mayors of big cities. Literally the only reason Clinton and Obama performed as well as they did was the biggest blue wave year ever in 2008 and Perot eating 400,000 votes. It would have resulted in Clinton either losing or winning by the skin of his teeth like Obama did in 2012.


Trafalgar sampling a tie means there's a wealth of Trump voters out there ready to crush election night and Biden needs to not count on FL as a path to 270. This is probably the most unpopular President ever and Florida literally voted for Ron DeSantis as governor becuase Trump told them to. Trump is a ing GOD to these people down here.



Just please trust me on this.

You don't think coronavirus will make a difference? Older voters are turning against Trump.

That's likely the case in most places where the seniors are moderate. In my neck of the woods in Pasco County seniors are NOT moderate. They'd blame Obama for COVID before they'd blame Trump. I'm dead serious. Out here it's "Well we're already doing everything we can! Whaddaya want Trump to do? Make the vaccine himself?!"

If this issue resolves by election day it's gonna be a lot closer than the polls are suggesting right now