Exactly 4 Months Out What Are Your Predictions?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

[Suburbia]

If Biden wins+ Republicans keep Senate+Democrats keep House, the Left will eat him alive.

McConnell and Biden will have to get something done

[wbrocks67]

You think Republicans are going to *gain* seats in the House? That seems... odd.

Honestly, I think Dems will win NC and FL, Biden will take GA and Ossoff will take Senate 1, and Warnock/Collins will go to runoff for Senate 2.

Outside chance Biden wins TX.

[Ferguson97]

[ProgressiveModerate]

Edit: Youn Kim's district (CA-39) should be tilt D. Oops

Ds win the house with relatively comfortable majority. The senate is extremely close either way, but Ds are slightly favored since 48 seats seem like pretty good bets for them, and there's so many seats that are very weak for Rs. if Biden is winning by 6+ points nationally, they will almost certainly hold MI, and pick up CO, AZ, and NC. Just one final seat and they are at a majority, and there's so many ways that they can get this final seat without relying on a good national environment.

[WD]

Presidential:


Senate:

House: I didn’t have time to make a full map but I predict 243D-192R

[progressive85]

Democrats take it all, honey.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Presidential:


Senate:

House: I didn’t have time to make a full map but I predict 243D-192R

I kinda feel like that senate map is way too favorable to Ds and a lot would have to go right for them.

[Nyvin]

[WD]

Presidential:


Senate:

House: I didn’t have time to make a full map but I predict 243D-192R

I kinda feel like that senate map is way too favorable to Ds and a lot would have to go right for them.

Not really tbh, CO, and AZ are in the bag. NC and ME are tossups with Cunningham and Gideon probably narrowly ahead imo. IA polls have shown Ernst trailing and underperforming Trump. Bullock will out preform Biden by double digits and has been consistently ahead, its Tilt D imo. KS will be pretty competitive regardless of who the GOP nominees is, Trumps going to d a lot worse their then in 2016 and Boiler will outperform by a lot. Lastly Ossoff is pretty much tied with Perdue, all he really needs to do is increase name rec.

A path to 53-54 seats is much easier than you think. Honestly, I feel like people are underestimating the Senate Dems. People have Biden will EV landslides, but think the Senate will only be 51R-49D or 50D-50R. It doesn’t add up, elections don’t happen in vacuums.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Your electoral college map implies Biden is prolly winning the Presidency, so a runoff would give Rs more of a reason to show up than Ds in GA. Special elections and lower turnout elections typically go against the presidency as a referendum on the president in power, and angry people have more of a reason to shpw up than complacent happy people. Ds would've already won the senate majority outright too, so it's not like Senate control is on the line in GA-S, which would be the only other reason that Ds could have good turnout

[ProgressiveModerate]

Presidential:


Senate:

House: I didn’t have time to make a full map but I predict 243D-192R

I kinda feel like that senate map is way too favorable to Ds and a lot would have to go right for them.

Not really tbh, CO, and AZ are in the bag. NC and ME are tossups with Cunningham and Gideon probably narrowly ahead imo. IA polls have shown Ernst trailing and underperforming Trump. Bullock will out preform Biden by double digits and has been consistently ahead, its Tilt D imo. KS will be pretty competitive regardless of who the GOP nominees is, Trumps going to d a lot worse their then in 2016 and Boiler will outperform by a lot. Lastly Ossoff is pretty much tied with Perdue, all he really needs to do is increase name rec.

A path to 53-54 seats is much easier than you think. Honestly, I feel like people are underestimating the Senate Dems. People have Biden will EV landslides, but think the Senate will only be 51R-49D or 50D-50R. It doesn’t add up, elections don’t happen in vacuums.

How many people in Kansas who vote for a crazy orange man will also vote for a sane smart woman? Unless Osoff is winning above 50% of the vote in GA, it'll go to a runoff, which is Biden is winning the presidency, would likely be won by Rs as a backlash to Biden winning. As for Collins, all the polls that show Gideon ahead have 20% undecided. Collins is better well known for the better or worse, and because of RCV, she can run to the center and gain votes, since far righters will still put her ahead of Gideon on their ballot.

[WD]

Presidential:


Senate:

House: I didn’t have time to make a full map but I predict 243D-192R

I kinda feel like that senate map is way too favorable to Ds and a lot would have to go right for them.

Not really tbh, CO, and AZ are in the bag. NC and ME are tossups with Cunningham and Gideon probably narrowly ahead imo. IA polls have shown Ernst trailing and underperforming Trump. Bullock will out preform Biden by double digits and has been consistently ahead, its Tilt D imo. KS will be pretty competitive regardless of who the GOP nominees is, Trumps going to d a lot worse their then in 2016 and Boiler will outperform by a lot. Lastly Ossoff is pretty much tied with Perdue, all he really needs to do is increase name rec.

A path to 53-54 seats is much easier than you think. Honestly, I feel like people are underestimating the Senate Dems. People have Biden will EV landslides, but think the Senate will only be 51R-49D or 50D-50R. It doesn’t add up, elections don’t happen in vacuums.

How many people in Kansas who vote for a crazy orange man will also vote for a sane smart woman? Unless Osoff is winning above 50% of the vote in GA, it'll go to a runoff, which is Biden is winning the presidency, would likely be won by Rs as a backlash to Biden winning. As for Collins, all the polls that show Gideon ahead have 20% undecided. Collins is better well known for the better or worse, and because of RCV, she can run to the center and gain votes, since far righters will still put her ahead of Gideon on their ballot.

Ask Laura Kelly.

Anyway, Ossoff  has a good chance of winning if Biden does the same. As for Maine, I really don’t see Collins outrunning Biden by more than 5-6.

[😥]

President:


Senate:
KS is Tilt R with Marshall, Tilt D with Kobach


House:


Governor:

[NewYorkExpress]

Democrats pick up roughly thirty seats in the House, six Senate seats (minus Doug Jones), and trade the Governor's mansions in Montana and Vermont.

"Democrats" also make a pickup in the in Puerto Rico Gubernatorial Race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AL, AK, CO, GA, and SC goes D

AZ Kelly may lose, he is an ardent supporter on gun control due to his wife and AZ is a pro gun state

Govs Hickenlooper and Bullock win
Gross is an indy and will win
SC, GA are gonna elect African American Senators
AL Jones holds on, due to Sessions Russian ties
Tillis holds on and is fairly moderate and well liked
52-48
Same as Marshall over Bollier
Gross is promised chairmanship if he votes for DC statehood and it passes with everyone except for Manchin votes for it. Mfume is elected Senator of DC statehood, and Warren is elected Veep and presides over swearing in over new class of Senators

Nicole Galloway and Cooper are elected and reelected Govs and Rs take MT Gov

CJ Robert's affirms DC statehood and Overturns Citizens United and is criticized by conservatives
Ginsburg retires after both cases are affirmed back to Israel.
Breyer ends up retiring during 2024 or soon after to fill another SCOTUS vacancy

[MABA 2020]

No specific predictions yet, but I really want Susan Collins to lose

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No specific predictions yet, but I really want Susan Collins to lose

ME doesnt have that many minorities, that's why Sununu, Scott, and Baker have won, in the NE

Doug Jones has a better chance to become Senator again due to face it's a high percentage of African Americans. The same with GA and SC with Warnock and Harrison.

There might be some upsets like Tillis, Collins, Jones and Gross whom is an indy winning.

Same with MO Gov, St Louis have a high percentage of African Americans,  Galloway can win

[Ferguson97]

No specific predictions yet, but I really want Susan Collins to lose

ME doesnt have that many minorities, that's why Sununu, Scott, and Baker have won, in the NE

Doug Jones has a better chance to become Senator again due to face it's a high percentage of African Americans. The same with GA and SC with Warnock and Harrison.

There might be some upsets like Tillis, Collins, Jones and Gross whom is an indy winning.

Same with MO Gov, St Louis have a high percentage of African Americans,  Galloway can win

This is a really bad take and shows a poor understanding of politics.

If a high % of African Americans was all it took, Democrats would win every Southern state and lose New England.

[Roll Roons]

No specific predictions yet, but I really want Susan Collins to lose

ME doesnt have that many minorities, that's why Sununu, Scott, and Baker have won, in the NE

Doug Jones has a better chance to become Senator again due to face it's a high percentage of African Americans. The same with GA and SC with Warnock and Harrison.

There might be some upsets like Tillis, Collins, Jones and Gross whom is an indy winning.

Same with MO Gov, St Louis have a high percentage of African Americans,  Galloway can win

This is a really bad take and shows a poor understanding of politics.

If a high % of African Americans was all it took, Democrats would win every Southern state and lose New England.

I hope you realize who you're talking to.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No specific predictions yet, but I really want Susan Collins to lose

ME doesnt have that many minorities, that's why Sununu, Scott, and Baker have won, in the NE

Doug Jones has a better chance to become Senator again due to face it's a high percentage of African Americans. The same with GA and SC with Warnock and Harrison.

There might be some upsets like Tillis, Collins, Jones and Gross whom is an indy winning.

Same with MO Gov, St Louis have a high percentage of African Americans,  Galloway can win

This is a really bad take and shows a poor understanding of politics.

If a high % of African Americans was all it took, Democrats would win every Southern state and lose New England.

KY, TN, LA. OK and AR have more conservative WC voters than in TX, VA, SC, FL and MO

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No specific predictions yet, but I really want Susan Collins to lose

ME doesnt have that many minorities, that's why Sununu, Scott, and Baker have won, in the NE

Doug Jones has a better chance to become Senator again due to face it's a high percentage of African Americans. The same with GA and SC with Warnock and Harrison.

There might be some upsets like Tillis, Collins, Jones and Gross whom is an indy winning.

Same with MO Gov, St Louis have a high percentage of African Americans,  Galloway can win

This is a really bad take and shows a poor understanding of politics.

If a high % of African Americans was all it took, Democrats would win every Southern state and lose New England.

I hope you realize who you're talking to.

Not funny, that's why your candidate for Prez is losing and Rs are gonna be locked out of government when DC statehood with 52 D and 48 R whichever way the Senate goes

[Sir Mohamed]

Exactly this. But ME-2 will probably go Trump. Narrowly.

The House will see little change, anywhere between Dems netting 5 seats or losing 5 seats.

[Brittain33]

PProjecting Ossoff and Collins in GA.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]